f_ivanovic
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Posts posted by f_ivanovic
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Re: World Championship - 18 Apr - 4 May Haven't put any match bets on yet but have 4 outrights for the tournament Ding at 16/1 Murphy at 20/1 (got this a few months ago when he had 3 147 attempts making one of them) Ronnie at 13/5 Trump at 6/1 Only Robertson can spoil my bet IMO and looking at the form he was in his first round match I'm beginning to think I should have backed him - looks formidable right now.
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Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May
Yeah, he only has 86% safety success this tournament but has no safety game of note.Trump is a great player crowd pleaser but IMHO has no safety game of note. -
Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Had an each way bet on Robert Milkins to win this year at 150/1. Big longshot but watching him play he's definitely capable and of the outside shots seems the one less likely to crumble under the pressure. If he pulls an upset against Robertson then I can imagine him having a decent chance against Walden and again could beat White or Poomjaeng. Then he's just got one more tough game (possibly against Ding or Selby) and he's in the final. So a favourable draw against him if he can win here this afternoon.
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Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Too late now but had a bet on Bingham to win 10-1, 10-2 or 10-0. Baird himself has said in an interview that when he plays bad he plays really bad and with it being the crucible the pressure could easily get to him so I wouldn't be surprised if Bingham won by a big margin and it seems now that could be the case. Then again Baird may also come out tomorrow feeling no pressure anymore so may back him tomorrow to win a few frames just in case.
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Re: HU and I get shoved OTR. Raising the turn seems silly because I'm just turning my hand into a bluff, even though if he's betting for value here I don't think he'll fold. So I'd only be raising the turn for protection. I just expected him to give up OTR if he was bluffing.
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OK so two different hands for you guys to think about. I'm playing HU at £2.5/5 levels. I'm playing against someone who started out pretty aggressive vs me. He 3bet with AT, bet a Kxx flop and then shoved an x turn. I was only 40bbs deep and I called him with AT, was a chopped pot. Since then he's shown much less inclination to bluff me and has generally slowed down. I started off quite passively, not c-betting much but have become much more aggressive to take advantage of his weak play. I should also say he likes to call my bets with weak holdings. So I call his £15 raise pre with :7s: :7d: Flop (£30): :Qd: :2d: :2h: I donk into him £22 and he raises to £67, I call. Turn (£164): :Kd: He bets £94, I call. River (£352): :4c: He shoves in his stack, I have about £290 left. I? My reasoning for calling flop raise is that I believe if he had hit this flop he would just call my bet because it looks like I'm FOS especially when I've recently been donking out a lot against him. Turn is a good bluffing card for him because it makes the flush. He could have it but with the way he's played I really think he would just flat call a FD on the flop. My inclination initially OTR was to call because his range is very polarized. But at the same time I'm not sure anymore if he will be pulling a 3 barrel bluff on me. (Have decided I will post the other hand later)
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Re: Fold Pocket Aces Pre-Flop?
In this situation it's almost always correct to call. You have at least an 80% chance of going from an OK chance of cashing to a very good chance of cashing. Unless you know that at least 4 of the players are very passive fishy and you know you're more than say a 80% favourite to cash then there is no reason to ever fold. However when it gets down to say 4 players left. The big stack shoves all in and you, the 2nd biggest stack has AA. If there is a player on the brink of going out then you should fold your AA. A few weeks ago I was playing a DYM and had the big stack. Some player had an average stack and someone else had dwindling chips and had been away for ages. I raised it up with K8 and this average stack shoved on me. I called him and he turns over AQ, and I bink a K and win. I probably tilted him badly but that's what you get when you're a muppet that puts his chips at risk when someone else is 99% guaranteed to go out.You also have to accumulate some chips in a double up to survive, Is it correct fold aces in a double up,say in the first few levels when blinds are low,youve not been involved,no player is out. your in mid postion FTA with aces you raise,1 player raises all in ,all fold round to you.surely you dont fold ,even in a double up. -
Re: Fold Pocket Aces Pre-Flop? Another situation: 9 player SnG. You're in the BB with AA and everyone is all in. Folding guarantees you 2nd place with a very unlikely chance of 1st. If you call you're definitely not a favourite against 9 other players.
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Re: Cash Strategy - Value Bet? I thought you were posting a hand per day :p Regarding the hand you posted, you said he was passive but not how much of a CS he was? Also I think the turn bet is a tad too small. I'd make it something like $23 instead. That way, shoving on the river is much more likely to get him to call with all his hands that we beat.
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Re: How much to play Jacks in cash poker?
Agree with this. With the straddles it's the equivalent of 5/10 so you're basically playing 12BBS deep. Unless the initial raiser is someone super nitty or someone that's super bluffy but would fold to a shove then shoving is the right play. Calling and hoping for a low flop sucks cause if it comes like KQ and the A9 guy bets, you end up folding the best hand.You made the right play in going in pre-flop. Seriously this is a 50/1 game where stacks are max 200 deep and people are standard straddling for total £15 pre flop? That sounds like the most aggressive game on earth ;) -
Re: Poor Cash Player Needs Advice Agree with most of what others have said. Raise flop more. Raise his turn donk. I also call the river unless he's super passive and only bets when he has a very strong hand.
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Re: ^Newbie^`s Cash poker thread Ah I remember the days I started with £50 and grinded out at 2p/4p. Good luck to you! Regarding Staffy's post, he does have a good point. However, if you: a) Can afford to lose what you have b) Are playing tight ABC poker Then you can get away with a 3/4 BI roll at these low stakes. Avoid going all in pre-flop without AA/KK and whilst I would normally never recommend limping ever, at these stakes it's a decent plan. But yeh ideally you want a minimum of 10 BI's at these levels. Higher up and you want a minimum of 20 (again, assuming ABC poker)
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Re: Tennis - Wimbledon No more bets for me I don't think. Already have Nadal and Sharapova double since before the semi's started!
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Re: Tennis - Wimbledon I've got on the Nadal bet @ 11/10 on Skybet. Not betting much on it, because still cheering for a Murray win but it will soften the blow if he loses!!
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Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Tsonga has gone from 7/4 to evens. Could lay now and make a profit but I'm confident Tsonga can go on to win. :ok
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Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Decided to put a bet on Nadal and Sharapova to both win. So I'm now in profit unless Djokovic wins and Kvitova & Nadal win!
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Re: Tennis - Wimbledon
I also followed yours and Atko's advice (as well as my own opinion) and backed this one today and am glad I did! Also glad I didn't decide to bet on the other matches - I had a feeling they were all very unpredictable and I was right. I currently have 3 outrights on: £23 on Murray at ~ 13/2, now priced at 4/1 £2 on Tsonga at 40/1, now priced at 7/1 £4 on Lisicki at 28/1, now priced at 11/2 (although was strangely 3/1 at one point) Obviously none of them are favourites, was wondering what's the best way I could maybe lay some of these bets? Or should I just stick to my guns and hope they come off? No bets from me for tomorrow so far, will have a look in the morning to see if there's anything I fancy. Also, how can I get involved in this points thing??Winner winner chicken dinner. Well done to other winners, saw some good calls :) -
Re: Tennis - Wimbledon
Well if it's got a significant amount over a 99% chance of happening then it's a good bet. In theory. However, the amount you win from such a bet compared to the bankroll you have it is pretty much never worth it. The lowest odds I would probably ever take are 1.10 and would only take them odds if I'm 97%+ certain that it will happen.I've no idea why you'd back something at 1.01. It's just got FAIL written all over it. I can think of a few occasions this year when a 1.01 bet has lost. England vs Ireland in the cricket, Arsenal vs Newcastle, India to score 300 or more vs SA in the cricket too. All failed. Not that I was clever enough to lay them and risk a tenner to win a grand. Would have been nice :beer -
Re: Tennis - Wimbledon I'm staying well clear of any betting on the Murray match! Gasquet could indeed trouble Murray but at the price he is at to win, it's still not worth it IMO. By the same token Murray is Murray. He could win comfortably, or could win or 4 or 5 sets. Once again I'm following some of Psycho's tips and have decided to go for a nice double. Ferrer to bt Tsonga Lopez (-4.5) to bt Kubot I think Ferrer and Tsonga could go either way which means Ferrer's price is a must take. Neither have really been tested up till now (although Ferrer did have a bit of a scare against Harrison) and it will definitely be an interesting game to watch. Lopez should beat Kubot comfortably, and at a -4.5 line I'm more than happy to take it. Two 6-4's and one tie breaker covers it.
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Re: Tennis - Wimbledon
I had a feeling Lopez might win but wasn't confident enough to back him. Only bet I have on today is the Nadal Under 30.5 games which I think has a +65% chance of happening so getting decent enough value on the bet. I also have a bet on Lisicki at 28/1 to win outright (she's much shorter odds now though) - She's been playing fantastic and could very well win it. Hope some others decided to back her when she had odds like that!Well done to all Lopez backers. Read that match totally wrong. Roddick - how the mighty have fallen. -
Re: Tennis - Wimbledon
Took your nadal bet mate ' date=' was a bit nervy last set couldnt watch it as i had work main thing is it came in :beer[/quote']haha same. Tomorrow I've got an accumulator on Malisse, Seppi and Lisicki @ 13/2 -
Re: Tennis - Wimbledon 18/1 on Murray to beat Nadal and Federer to win Wimbledon. Good bet or not? I think Federer is very likely to reach the final and Murray and Nadal are very likely to make the 1st semi-final. So rather than backing Murray at 11/2 to win Wimbledon I've put this 18/1 bet on instead, and may have lay off bets later down the line.
World Championship - 18 Apr - 4 May
in Snooker Predictions
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Re: World Championship - 18 Apr - 4 May