[Tennis - Wimbledon]

Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Hi all, got a couple of fancies on the total games for tomorrow. Apologies if descriptions are a bit half-arsed. I'll be camping out in the queue tomorrow night. Sights set on Centre Court tickets! Stepanek vs. Verdasco 4pts - Over 39.5 games @ 1.91 (Paddy Power) I reckon this is a tough one to call. Stepanek's got himself some good results in the past couple of weeks. Although his tank job against Nishikori in Eastbourne was something of an anticlimax, he seems to be in decent nick. He's sure to get under Verdasco's skin at some point during a best of five set encounter. Few would deny that the Spaniard is a bit shaky mentally and I feel Stepanek is the ideal man to exploit that fragility. He's renowned for his unorthodox style of play and ability to mix it up, making his opponents deal with a number of different angles and spins, and tends to fare well against lefties (48-19). Verdasco's superior groundies should be telling but he won't have it all his own way against a wily old campaigner like Stepanek. He ripped the Czech a new one at the Aussie Open in 2009 but was at the peak of his powers then and I don't think there's a chance of this going the same way. Their meeting at Wimbledon five years ago was a much closer match with Stepanek coming through in five. He's unlikely to repeat that feat but it won't be one-sided. Overs for me. Troicki vs. M. Gonzalez 4pts - Under 30.5 games @ 1.8 (TitanBet) Been very impressed by Troicki in recent times. His good form this year shows no signs of waning. Speaking of form, Gonzalez is having a shocker at the moment. Six consecutive defeats. I watched his match last week against Niemenen and he was really struggling with his extreme grips on the grass. Typical clay dweller. He's only ever played three professional matches on this surface and lost them all. Can't see him posing much of a threat to classy, confident Troicki. The Serb will use his big serve and forehand to dictate the match. He'll have too much firepower for Gonzalez if he plays to the standard he did in Halle. I expect him to get the job done in under 30.5 games.

[Tennis - 13-19 June]

Re: Tennis - 13-19 June Unbelievable, the magic of sport. They should put the marathon men on Centre and let them play all night!

[Tennis - 13-19 June]

Re: Tennis - 13-19 June

DOUBLE (Malisse' date= Anderson) @ 1.85 (Unibet) - LOSS ATP Eastbourne - Stepanek to beat Tsonga @ 3.55 (bwin) - WIN

Didn't have Anderson down as a tanker, disappointing performance from him. Luckily Tsonga followed suit. Stepanek's win brings me a modest profit for the week so I may leave it at that until Wimbledon now. We'll see. Nothing catches my eye for tomorrow, anyway. Best of luck to everyone who does get involved.

[Tennis - 13-19 June]

Re: Tennis - 13-19 June

ATP 's-Hertogenbosch - Haider-Maurer to beat Dodig @ 2.95 (Pinnacle) - LOSS ATP 's-Hertogenbosch - Malisse -3.5 vs. Falla @ 1.83 (Pinnacle) - WIN ATP Eastbourne - Anderson vs. Slabinsky - Under 20 games @ 1.88 (Pinnacle) - LOSS

Poor day then, Dodig dismissing Haider-Maurer and Anderson going just over. At least Malisse pulled through on the handicap. Tomorrow's fancies: DOUBLE @ 1.85 (Unibet) - ATP 's-Hertongenbosch - Malisse to beat Huta Galung @ 1.3 - ATP Eastbourne - Anderson to beat Dimitrov @ 1.42 Malisse hammered Falla in 's-Hertogenbosch today and has points to defend as I mentioned in my previous post. Looking at the draw, he really ought to fancy his chances of taking home the title. I certainly don't envisage Huta Galung getting in his way. The Dutch wild card's powerful game is pretty compatible with grass and he holds a respectable 8-6 career record on this surface but most of those matches were in qualies and Challengers. Victory over Reister today was only his second at ATP World Tour level this season, and he made hard work of it considering the German's shoulder problem. Malisse likes to get his money's worth at times, but if he can continue his current form he'll be in for another straightforward victory. Anderson let me down with the overs bet today but I won't hold it against him. Wasn't exactly convincing against plucky Brit Slabinsky in his Eastbourne opener but got the job done in straight sets with minimal fuss. Dimitrov struggled past Evans in the first round and lost to clay courter Bellucci at Queen's last week. Pretty iffy results. He's an excellent shotmaker at times but very erratic and Anderson won't allow him any rhythm. I expect the big man's power to overwhelm him. Anticipate these two favourites progressing at their respective events and have taken them in a double. ATP Eastbourne - Stepanek to beat Tsonga @ 3.55 (bwin) Looks like I'm with the consensus on this one. Shocked as everyone else that Tsonga decided to play in Eastbourne this week after his exertions at Queen's. Very questionable decision with Wimbledon looming and if the Frenchman was employing a coach he'd surely be resting up right now. I managed to catch the tail end of his win over Istomin today and he did look knackered. Definitely wasn't serving at full tilt. Stepanek's a wily old campaigner. As Atko pointed out, he's a horrible player to face when you're not at 100% because he'll sharply observe any weaknesses in your game and find ways to exploit them. I'll be opposing Tsonga until he loses this week, because with every passing match he damages his chances of going deep at SW19. One ball bookie, of course.

[Tennis - 13-19 June]

Re: Tennis - 13-19 June

ATP Eastbourne - Garcia-Lopez -3 vs. Devvarman @ 1.91 (Pinnacle) - LOSS ATP Eastbourne - Benneteau -2.5 vs. Sweeting @ 1.84 (Pinnacle) - WIN ATP Eastbourne - Kunitsyn to beat Andujar @ 1.76 (bwin) - WIN

Straight sets victories for Benneteau and Kunitsyn (tip from last week's thread). Marked the other one down as a loss since it's almost impossible for Garcia-Lopez to cover the handicap from 3-6, 3-5 down. I notice Almagro lived up to his nickname yesterday as well. Taken three bets today, with none of those pesky Spaniards involved. Definitely gonna be wary of backing any more from now until they get the hell off the grass... ATP 's-Hertogenbosch - Haider-Maurer to beat Dodig @ 2.95 (Pinnacle) Haider-Maurer is a head case. Overcame Kavcic on Sunday in an absolutely turgid contest. Kept trying, and failing, to smash his racquet on the grass when things turned against him which was completely hilarious. Anyway, he actually served pretty well in that encounter and made good use of the chip and charge either side of his predictable mental checkout in the middle of the match. As spectacles go, Dodig's win over Hanescu wasn't much better. The Croat wasn't convincing, but played the big points well, saving all seven break points he faced. We've already seen a few of the higher ranked players here put in half-arsed performances and the fourth seed may just be eyeing a few days off ahead of Wimbledon having also played in Halle last week. The H2H makes for interesting reading, with the crazy Austrian leading 2-1 including a victory in SW19 qualies two years ago. Provided he serves like he did in the first round, and barring a mental breakdown, he'll at least keep this close, and I believe that if push comes to shove he'll want the victory a little more. Good chance of an upset here for me. Attractive price. ATP 's-Hertogenbosch - Malisse -3.5 vs. Falla @ 1.83 (Pinnacle) Malisse looked sharp last week. Could have defeated soon-to-be champ Murray at Queen's had he not run out of steam towards the end of their match. Has semi-final points to defend from his exertions here last year. Beat Falla in three sets during that run to the semis but I think he's in for a more straightforward challenge on this occasion. The Colombian was at the peak of his powers back then and went on to almost stun Federer at Wimbledon. Reached the quarters of the French Open recently but doesn't seem to have carried that form onto the grass. He lost to world number 167 Zemlja in Nottingham last week and had to come from a set down to defeat Navarro in qualies here. Malisse has the key attributes of a great grass court player - fast serve, big forehand and a vicious slice backhand. Those weapons were fully on show in London last week and if the Belgian brings out the heavy artillery again I expect him to get the job done comfortably. ATP Eastbourne - Anderson vs. Slabinsky - Under 20 games @ 1.88 (Pinnacle) This should be plain sailing for the big Saffer. Slabinsky's out of his depth. He's basically only been playing Futures events this year. Reasonable experience on grass and battled valiantly through the qualifiers to get here but could be in for a pasting. Anderson's just enjoyed a productive week at Queen's having claimed the scalp of Karlovic. Seems to be developing his game on this surface and will be looking to continue that ahead of Wimbledon. Covered this line against Young in London last week and I feel he'll be ruthless enough to do so again today.

[Tennis - 13-19 June]

Re: Tennis - 13-19 June ATP Eastbourne - Benneteau -2.5 vs. Sweeting @ 1.84 (Pinnacle) Wouldn't trust Benneteau to cover this on any other surface but he's much more dependable on grass. Beat Brands and then lost to Llodra last week in London, recording an impressive 76% first serve percentage in both of those matches. Sweeting shows few signs of improving his traditionally poor form on grass; managed to get a win over Evans at the Nottingham Challenger a couple of weeks back but has lost to Muller and Ljubicic since then. I watched his match against the Croat at Queen's and he showed signs of heart in a close first set but seemed completely bereft of confidence after losing it on a tiebreak. Envisage this contest taking a similar trajectory. If the Frenchman repeats that percentage he'll dominate on serve. As the more experienced grass court player, he'll use the backhand slice to cause his tall opponent plenty of problems with the low-bouncing ball. Wouldn't be surprised to see the American getting disheartened if he falls behind. Feel this handicap looks a game or two too low so I'm backing Benneteau to cover it.

[Tennis - 13-19 June]

Re: Tennis - 13-19 June ATP Eastbourne - Garcia-Lopez -3 vs. Devvarman @ 1.91 (Pinnacle) Garcia-Lopez ought to record a comfortable victory here. Court coverage is Devvarman's greatest asset but he doesn't move well on grass so his results have been poor on this surface (2-9 career record). The Indian's currently on a rotten six match losing streak so confidence must be low. His serve lacks bite, and tends to get exploited on faster courts. GGL's season has been pretty mediocre but he's one of the few Spaniards who enjoys the grass court swing. Seems to love Eastbourne - runner-up last season and a semi-finalist the year before. His compact, no nonsense groundies are compatible with the low bounce so he'll be able to make plenty of headway attacking that flimsy serve. Should be able to expose his opponent's suspect movement by maneuvering him around the court with his own well-rounded grass court game. Devvarman was the victor the last time these two met in Belgrade (that was his last victory, in fact!) but I expect Garcia-Lopez to exact his revenge in reasonably serene fashion.

[Tennis - June 6-12]

Re: Tennis - June 6-12

AEGON Championships - Murray to beat Roddick @ 1.7 (Pinnacle) - WIN

Vintage Murray. Unlikely to bet on either final tomorrow but I do have one pick from the first round in Eastbourne. Eastbourne - Kunitsyn to beat Andujar @ 1.76 (bwin) Andujar looked disinterested against Raonic in Halle last week and has a dreadful 1-5 career record on grass (that win having come in a qualie). I question his motivation to be on this surface after such a half-arsed performance and see him as a big outsider here. Kunitsyn doesn't necessarily have the weapons in his game to really hurt the Spaniard but he's a plucky journeyman with a solid game and much more grass court experience. 1.76 seems like a gift from bwin and is sure to come down.

[Tennis - June 6-12]

Re: Tennis - June 6-12 AEGON Championships - Murray to beat Roddick @ 1.7 (Pinnacle) As I said in my post yesterday, the lethality of Roddick's game is on the wane and I don't see him winning this title. Been wrong in opposing him a couple of times this week but feel there's value in doing so again today. His comprehensive victories thus far have somewhat masked the fact that he's not actually serving all that well. No disgrace in that of course - after all, this event is the first the American has played since Rome, and prior to it he hadn't recorded a victory since Indian Wells. Murray's return game is in a different class to anyone he's faced so far, and conditions are expected to be slow again, with light showers forecast - this plays into the Scot's hands as he'll be able to get more serves back into play. The odds place too much emphasis on Roddick's win at Wimbledon two years ago; he really did play out of his skin that day and I don't think he's capable of reaching that level any more. Only big doubt over Murray is tiredness a la Nadal yesterday, but he's had a day off given Cilic's withdrawal. Don't see motivation being an issue either, judging by the way he's been talking in his pressers. 1.7 isn't brilliant but looks a touch too high so I've taken Murray here.

[Tennis - June 6-12]

Re: Tennis - June 6-12

Gerry Weber Open - Petzschner to beat Raonic @ 2.75 (Ladbrokes) - WIN AEGON Championships - Verdasco to beat Roddick @ 3 (10bet) - LOSS

The less said about Verdasco the better, really. Good performance from Petzschner. Well done to everyone on Tsonga today, Nadal looked knackered in that third set.

[Tennis - June 6-12]

Re: Tennis - June 6-12 Well, didn't think I'd get time to write this one up on here, but given the rain in London and my boredom at work, I'll do so now. AEGON Championships - Verdasco to beat Roddick @ 3 (10bet) Initially decided against this bet last night, but the drift in Verdasco's price since then has convinced me otherwise. Not been entirely convinced by Roddick this week, or throughout the season to be honest. Really enjoyed watching him over the years but I get the sense that with every passing tournament, the powerful and robust game which has brought him so much success is on the wane. Sure, he'll always fire down a fine first serve percentage and plenty of aces, but more players are managing to get those rockets back into play nowadays - even on his beloved grass courts - and the wicked forehand isn't what it once was. Verdasco isn't particularly renowned for his return game, but the slow conditions players have commented on in the last couple of days will play into his hands here - they'll take some of the zip off the Roddick serve, and I know whose groundies I'd back if these two started slogging it out at the back of the court. The Spaniard's mighty solid from the baseline when he's on his game, and I'm liking his attitude this week. Hard to back a chump against a champ, but there's plenty of value in Verdasco at 2/1.

[Tennis - June 6-12]

Re: Tennis - June 6-12

AEGON Championships - Cilic -3.5 vs. Bellucci @ 2.01 (Pinnacle) - LOSS

Bellucci bagels Cilic in the second set to round off a pretty miserable day for me. In the red for the week now. Looking to get back on track with a few picks from today's quarter finals, just posting this one up for now though. Gerry Weber Open - Petzschner to beat Raonic @ 2.75 (Ladbrokes) Raonic is a tremendous young player with a massive serve and a game well suited to grass but is yet to convince me on this surface because he hasn't sussed his movement out yet, similarly to Del Potro. This guy had only played two matches on grass before this week, and I think that inexperience will be shown up by Petzschner at times in today's match. The German has the superior grass court experience, and he challenged both Federer and Nadal on this surface last season. I expect the he'll target the Canadian's backhand with his slice, and if he does so to good effect, he'll draw errors from that wing. Expect to see a close encounter here, much closer than the odds suggest. Value on Petzschner.

[Tennis - June 6-12]

Re: Tennis - June 6-12

AEGON Championships - Llodra vs. Tsonga - Over 22.5 games @ 2 (Pinnacle) - VOID AEGON Championships - Anderson vs. Roddick - Over 22.5 games @ 1.91 (bet365) - LOSS

Not sure what kind of injury Llodra picked up but he retired during the rain break. Bemoaning my luck over the other bet really - there was little to choose between the players and Roddick didn't have many opportunities on the Anderson serve but managed to get a break early in each set which ended up busting the overs. AEGON Championships - Cilic -3.5 vs. Bellucci @ 2.01 (Pinnacle) Fancy Cilic to come through pretty comfortably here. Bellucci must be tired after two tough three setters. Struggled past Ilhan yesterday and doesn't have the attributes to really trouble a quality player like Cilic on this surface. Cilic looked a bit jittery against Clement but got through in straight sets eventually so he's well placed to push on today. He beat Bellucci comprehensively 6-2, 6-2 in their only previous meeting last year so has the mental edge as well. 3.5 games handicap line looks about right to me but the 2.01 on Cilic covering it seems like value so I'll back him here.

[Tennis - June 6-12]

Re: Tennis - June 6-12 AEGON Championships - Anderson vs. Roddick - Over 22.5 games @ 1.91 (bet365) Very surprised to see a couple of bookies offering this total games line. Expected it to be at least a game higher. Roddick of course has plenty more to his game than just the big serve, but looking at his results over the years on grass - and particularly here at Queen's - he does tend to get sucked into stalemates with the more one dimensional big servers, and end up playing tight sets, reserving himself for the latter stages. Anderson is in decent nick and came through against Karlovic in the first round this week so he's already faced a big server and prevailed. Like Llodra in my previous tip, I feel that he'll at least be able to keep this one close. Just one previous meeting between these two which Roddick took in three but that match was on the hard courts of Brisbane in the opening week of the season so I'm not reading too much into it. Wanted to back Anderson on the +3.5 games handicap but the value's gone out of that market now so I'll gladly take this 1.91 on the overs while it's still available.

[Tennis - June 6-12]

Re: Tennis - June 6-12

AEGON Championships - Anderson vs. Young - Tie Break in Match? Yes @ 2.63 (bet365) - LOSS AEGON Championships - Stepanek to beat Ljubicic @ 2.1 (bet365) - WIN

Young couldn't keep up with Anderson on serve and Stepanek recovered from a shocking first set to edge out Ljubicic. AEGON Championships - Llodra vs. Tsonga - Over 22.5 games @ 2 (Pinnacle) I reckon we'll see a pretty tight match and plenty of French flare here between two compatriots who seem to be relishing playing on the grass and have picked up convincing victories this week. Llodra's recorded two low key straight sets victories over Pospisil and Benneteau. He's a classy player with fine feel and a reliable serve which he loves to come in off who undoubtedly plays his best tennis on the fast surfaces. Tsonga wowed the centre court crowd with his usual spurts of brilliance and looked mightily impressive as he swatted aside Berrer 6-0, 6-1 in round two. He leads the head to head 3-0, two of those matches having come on speedy indoor hard surfaces, and Llodra managed keep it close on both occasions. I fully expect Tsonga to ultimately prevail again but he does still have that infamous tendency to drift in and out of matches mentally and with this in mind I think Llodra's usual solid serve volley tactics will allow him to keep it tight, and going with serve, for the majority. They've covered this total games line in both of the aforementioned indoor hard matches so this is an excellent price which I've jumped on before it comes down closer to the match.

[Tennis - June 6-12]

Re: Tennis - June 6-12 AEGON Championships - Stepanek to beat Ljubicic @ 2.1 (bet365) Two veterans of the tour go head to head here and I'm quite surprised to see Ljubicic as favourite with the bookies. Stepanek has a better career grass court record than him and leads the head to head 2-1. Ljubicic has always possessed the weapons to do well on grass but never quite cut the mustard. He looked very iffy to me in his first round victory over Sweeting. Haven't seen a lot of Stepanek this year but he seems to be doing alright and comfortably dispatched Soeda in the first round. Ljubicic always looks uncomfortable on a grass court and I think he'll be troubled by Stepanek's unorthodox style and variety. Ljubicic's superior serve should ensure this is a close match and I was hoping to play overs on the total games but can't see any value in that market. Stepanek is the slight favourite in my opinion so I see value in 2.1 and am backing him to do the business.

[Tennis - June 6-12]

Re: Tennis - June 6-12

AEGON Championships - Istomin +4.5 vs. Del Potro @ 1.93 (10bet) - LOSS AEGON Championships - Anderson +2.5 vs. Karlovic @ 1.83 (bet365) - WIN

Del Potro had a few movement issues as I anticipated but was still several classes above Istomin, whose performance smacked of a player bereft of form and belief. Anderson edged the battle of the big servers, comfortably covering the handicap in the process. Just had a read through the thread and there seems to be plenty of winners so far this week - great to see. One for tomorrow: AEGON Championships - Anderson vs. Young - Tie Break in Match? Yes @ 2.63 (bet365) This isn't normally a market I'm tempted by but I like the look of it in this instance. Over the course of their seven previous matches against each other, these two have played six tiebreaks. The last of those meetings was in Delray Beach earlier this year, when they won a breaker apiece before Anderson came through 6-2 in the third. Young had big problems with his serve in his loss to Niland at the Nottingham Challenger last week but would appear to be beyond them having recorded a decent 71% of first serves in during his win over Haider-Maurer on Monday. Anderson earned himself a respectable victory over Karlovic in the first round and has won his last four meetings with Young so there's a reasonable chance of him running away with this. All factors considered, however, I'd expect to see the odds much closer to evens on this bet, so the 2.63 currently available seems like definite value to me and I'm having a dabble.

[Tennis - June 6-12]

Re: Tennis - June 6-12 AEGON Championships - Anderson +2.5 vs. Karlovic @ 1.83 (bet365) Considering the immense serving power of these two players, I feel this match is bound to be a close one. Karlovic is the rightful favourite as a vastly experienced grass court player, but Anderson is by no means a stranger to the grass, having knocked out another big server in the shape of Dent in the first round here last year, and also given Davydenko a run for his money in the first round at Wimbledon before bowing out in five. Centre court seemed to be playing reasonably fast today and if conditions are similar tomorrow this will strengthen the likelihood of a big-serving stalemate here, and we all know what that means - tiebreaks. I'm very surprised to see bet365 set their game handicap line at 2.5 for this match (10bet much more sensibly go 1.5), and feel the 1.83 offered about Anderson covering it is sure to come down as the match approaches.

[Tennis - June 6-12]

Re: Tennis - June 6-12 Hi all, long term lurker here! I read the tennis threads on here religiously and have followed a few tips in the past. You have my gratitude for your sagacious kindness. Just been hunting down the handicap prices for this week's opening matches and there's one I like the look of on Tuesday. AEGON Championships - Istomin +4.5 vs. Del Potro @ 1.93 (10bet) Istomin has had a poor season, and isn't in good form coming in here. However, I vividly remember his match at Queen's against Nadal last season where he pushed the world number one all the way in three close sets. He made the semis in Eastbourne the following week and then the third round at Wimbledon, demonstrating that he more than knows his way around a grass court. Del Potro, while obviously a tremendous player, is still something of an unknown quantity on grass - he hasn't played on it since losing to Hewitt in the second round of Wimbledon two years ago, and has very limited experience for such a heavy favourite. Movement could be an issue early doors for a big guy who hasn't tasted competitive grass court tennis for so long. I feel the game handicap line is generous at 4.5 here and am on Istomin to cover it at a very reasonable price.