Keyskills
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Posts posted by Keyskills
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Re: UFC 156 Yeah it was a crazy crazy night. Never seen someone fight so stupid as Overeem though, it was clear Bigfoot was just looking to survive the first round, he barely threw a punch, and Overeem had it 2 rounds to 0. Also, if Overeem wanted to throw any big kicks/knees/punches, he could have finished the fight whenever he wanted to. But you could tell he wanted to win a decision victory by having his hands down his side the whole fight. But anyone who is gonna have their hands by their side to allow a HEAVYWEIGHT fighter to land 10+ clean punches to their head, they will get knocked out (unless your name's big country), simple as that. I do feel sorry for Edgar, as no one can question his heart, and he never seems to get the rub of the green when it comes to close fights (i.e Benson Henderson). I did give it 48-47 Aldo in the end, and I think the judges would have been swayed by looking at the two guys faces by the end of the fight, no doubt that Aldo scored much more damage than Edgar. I just wish that card was in Brazil, would have definitely done a Brazil accumulator (as the judges are SO bias there), which would have included underdogs of Maia, Bigfoot, Little Nog and obviously Aldo. The last 3 UFC cards have been somewhat unpredictable, but as you said, 8 underdogs winning on this one was just crazy. The next UFC in London doesn't even look the safest of cards, some really interesting matchups, especially Maunuwa/Diabate and Te Huna/Jimmo. The only thing I can say about those 2 fights is, they won't go the distance.
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Re: UFC 156 Crazy night for betting, a night for the underdogs for sure. Only 3 favourites have won in the 10 fights at odds of 1/3, 2/5 and 4/5. Only open bet left for me is Edgar/Aldo fight NOT to go the distance to complete my 8/1 distance market which will save me for the event, on what was a ridiculously unpredictable night in the UFC.
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Re: UFC 156 Had 4 fighters making their UFC debut tonight and all 4 won. Crazy stat as the Octagon jitters will 80% of the time be the reason why debutants don't win their first ever UFC fight. Albeit Camus making crazy decisions to keep going for takedowns in a fight he was winning against a guy with a MUCH better ground game, to then be submitted in the 3rd. Volkmann surprised me as well, his gas tank usually is ridiculous, looked like he had nothing left halfway into the second and got finished right near the end of the 3rd in a fight which could have gone either way if it went to the judges. Plus a debatable split-decision victory for vallie-flag over edwards. Really looking forward to the main card now, all fights have been interesting to say the least! Feeling a bit more confident with my 4 value plays on this card.
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Re: UFC 156 WHAT a start to the card, love it when the facebook fights are exciting, a shame the camus/kimura fight will probably bring us back down a bit, still a great start to an absolutely STACKED card. Safe to say that first fight has woken me up a bit haha.
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Re: UFC 156 Best bet of the night for me is definitely Overeem by KO/TKO, can't stress how good odds of 1/2 are for that! That's like betting on Mayweather to KO someone, in Mayweathers case you'd be looking at odds of like 1/10 at best. 1/2 is insane. One of the main reasons why UFC's so good to bet on. If this was boxing you'd get 1/50 and 1/100 on fights like Overeem and Rashad Evans to win tonight, yet you're getting 1/5 and roughly 1/4, odds are crazy for UFC IMO.
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Re: UFC 156 Picked out 4 value plays which I'm gonna stick as doubles (if any 2 of them win then i'll have made profit) Ian McCall to win @ 2/1 Jose Aldo KO/TKO @ 9/5 Gleison Tibau by decision @ 7/5 Rashad Evans by KO/TKO @ 23/10 I wouldn't be surprised to see any of these happening, but they're all tough fights to call. So I fancy doing the doubles on these just because as long as 2 win i'll have made a small profit, then if 3 or 4 win the profit will obviously be much greater. To put these in doubles makes it 6 bets, and I've worked out that the smallest return is 6.72 units, so if you put the same units on each double, then the least you'll make is a profit of 0.72 units, providing at least 2 of these outcomes happen. Onto my reasoning for this: Ian McCall to win @ 2/1: I believe this will be a really exciting back and forth fight, and could easily sway either way, more than likely going to the judges. I do believe Benavidez is the overall better fighter, and probably more of a clever fighter when it comes to swaying the judges and winning rounds, as McCall is pretty crazy fighter. However, I do feel the fight is a lot more competitive than the odds for McCall suggest. I'd probably put McCall more around the 6/4 marker, so odds of 2/1 are too good to resist. Jose Aldo by KO/TKO @ 9/5: I just feel Aldo will need to finish the fight to get the victory, if it goes to decision I could see Edgar taking the later rounds due to being in better shape really. Think Aldo is out to make a statement and said he wants to send Edgar back to his old weight class. Although if Aldo can slow Edgar down with his vicious leg kicks, he may be able to go on for a comfortable decision. Yet again, odds of 9/5 for Aldo by KO/TKO are too good to turn down IMO. Tibau by decision @ 7/5: I can see this fight going down to the judges, and really believe it is a pick'em fight, where either fighter could easily take this. Slightly in favour of Tibau as he likes his takedowns, and will look to get this fight to the ground and control out a decision victory. Can't complain with odds over evens for this outcome. Rashad Evans by KO/TKO @ 23/10: this is more of a value play, I think the most likely outcome is Rashad to grind out a decision victory. But I believe he could easily get a TKO out of this, from the ref stopping him ground and pounding on Nog who is unable to defend himself. At odds of over 2/1, you can't really complain. I do think the chances of at least 2 of these outcomes happening are pretty high, I do think the McCall and Tibau are going to be very tight, and a bit of luck on my side could give those to wins. But in the past, being let down by just 1 outcome due to poor judging decisions so playing this more safe with just doubles on these 4 value plays. Next bet is my ''safe'' bet: Jacob Volkmann Rashad Evans Jon Fitch Alistair Overeem by KO/TKO this returns 2.28/1 and even though that might seem low odds, I feel it's probably as safe a bet as I can get to for this somewhat tricky card. I'm going to add to that ''safe bet'' with Tibau, Edwards, Camus and Woodley to up the odds, which I think comes to about 25/1. These are my initial accumulator bets, will probably post a few singles up throughout the night depending how well the night is going.
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Re: UFC 156 Agree with you on this 100% here, and definitely tempted with Aldo by KO/TKO at 9/5. With that said, here's my first bet for the night, going for a distance market accumulator at 8/1: Edgar/Aldo Not to go distance Maia/Fitch, McCall/Benavidez, Dunham/Tibau, Evans/Nog all to go distance Main worries there are probably Maia potentially to get a sub victory, although Fitch has only been submitted once in his career, back in 2002, and I think his general pace will control the fight against Maia to a decision victory. Other possibly Rashad Evans may be able to get a TKO victory from ground and pound and Nog not fighting back. Best odds are 11/10 for Aldo/Edgar not to go the distance, if you can ever get odds for a 5 round fight not to go the distance at over evens money it's always worth a bet, as I'm probably 60-70% sure this won't go the distance. Will do a more thorough analysis later, with a couple more accumulators and a few singles that stand out to me. Alistair Overeem to win by KO/TKO at 1/2 seems a steal to me, Bigfoot keeps getting fed to the dogs and has been KO/TKO'ed a few times in the past, plus Overeem is an absolute tank and should finish this very early/easily IMO.
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Re: Norwich City v Tottenham Hotspur > Wed 30th January Clint Dempsey seems well in form at the moment. He's scored in 4 of Spurs' last 5 games (the one game he didn't score was the 0-0 at QPR). Some may be against lesser opposition in Leeds and Coventry in the FA Cup, but he scored that vital equaliser against Man United, and took him just 4 minutes coming off the bench against Reading to net. Looks like he's found the type of form he had last season at Fulham, and seems to be in the right place at the right time. Dempsey first scorer @ 7/1 Ladbrokes Dempsey anytime scorer @ 9/4 Ladbrokes Not betting heavy on this, just can't argue with the stats on this one, think he has a great chance to score, and should start this game. Will wait for the lineups before I put this on, because he probably won't see more than 20-30 mins if he starts on the bench tonight.
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Re: UFC on FOX 6 Singles for the main card: Koch via KO/TKO @ 9/5 Pettis win @ 4/6 (tempted by Pettis by decision @ 13/10 but not a good enough value for an outcome) Teixeira by submission @ 7/2 (only a small bet as could easily end as KO/TKO either way) + Fight to not go the distance @ 4/6 Not the best odds for the main event, but I do think Demetrious Johnson will win by decision, but at 8/11 don't think the value is truly there, I can't bet on a 5 round fight to go all the way at odds under evens. Finally an accumulator of: Koch via KO/TKO, Pettis win, Glover Teixeira inside the distance and Johnson win.
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Re: UFC on FOX 6 Sorry for no full preview but the pub was calling after what was a dire 90 minutes of football that I went to see today! Going to keep it short and sweet and here are my main bets for tonight: Krauss, Koch, Pettis and Johnson all to win. Kraus, Koch and Teixeira fight all to NOT go the distance. Neither of these bets are great odds, but ones I am fairly happy with. Will probably add more singles throughout the night, most fights i've probably thought about too much which has put me off betting them, and after the last event, I think the singles are the way to go here.
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Re: UFC on FOX 6 Yeah, I watched the weigh ins last night and Rampage does look up for this, he said it's the easiest weight cut he's had as well, does worry me a bit as Teixeira did get rocked and nearly finished himself in his fight against Maldonado, who overall, he absolutely destroyed. So if he struggles to close the distance, Rampage really could get a KO here. Still swaying with Teixeira, if it goes to the ground I don't think Rampage will be able to deal with the power and strength of Teixeira when he's on his back. Saying that, I'm definitely convinced we'll see a finish here though, so fight to NOT go the distance at 8/11 on ladbrokes stands out as a better bet for me. If Rampage wins, it'll be by KO. Teixeira could definitely get a sub/tko victory here and I really can't see this going the distance with the punching power of the two fighters, and that fact that Teixeira has finished 17 of his 19 professional wins (12 by KO, 5 by submission)
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This event is on Saturday 26th January and weigh ins are tomorrow night, my full preview won't be up until I have seen the weigh ins just to make sure someone that I'm in favour of hasn't had a poor weight cut or training camp (as proved in the last card, Ben Rothwell had a poor training camp, which swayed my decision to Gonzaga, who went on to submit him in the 2nd round). However, here's my brief view on the upcoming card, just looking at the main card. Erik Koch Versus Ricardo Lamas I would definitely say there is value in Erik Koch as I believe he is by far the better all round fighter, in most areas I think he does have an advantage over Lamas. I believe Lamas will look for the takedown, but Koch has great defense and i'll believe he'll be able to keep the fight standing and dictate how the fight goes. However, Koch is coming back from a LONG layoff, without fighting in the past 13 months, this can always be a danger due to 'ring rust', where the fighter may not be fully prepared for it, and may need 1 fight to get back into the swing of things, such as testing of his cardio etc. This is why I like to wait for the weigh ins before I make any final decisions. Anthony Pettis Versus Donald Cerrone I am kinda surprised by these odds, as I expected Pettis to be more of a clear favourite than he actually is. I do think this will be an exciting fight, and potentially a close fight. Although Cerrone has said that he will keep the fight standing against Pettis, which I think will be his downfall as I believe Pettis is the more superior striker and will be able to pick out an easy decision victory (if not finish Cerrone) if the fight does go this way. So for now, I'd be favouring Pettis, and at the current odds, it makes it harder to avoid, as I'd have expected him to be closer to 1/2 IMO. Rampage Jackson Versus Glover Teixeira I am a big fan of Teixeira at the moment, and he is by far the more hungrier fighter. Rampage hasn't been quiet about his views on the UFC and Dana White, and has made it clear that he'll be parting ways with UFC after this fight. He has said that he has been training hard for this fight and has trained to 'destroy' Glover, which may make this a more competitive fight, if Rampage's head is really in this. Although Glover will still be the hungrier fighter, although not fighting Rampage in his prime, it'll definitely be the biggest with of Teixeira's MMA career. I still feel, no matter what Rampage we see on Saturday, that Teixeira will come out with the victory, but I'll have to wait for the weigh ins to see what kind of shape Rampage is in, and whether or not I think Glover will be able to finish Rampage or not. It sounds like Glover won't be wanting to trade with Rampage, and will be looking to close the distance and take him down and work from there, where in this case I think a submission victory would be more likely, although with someone of Glover's power, you can never rule out the KO/TKO. This is definitely the fight I am looking forward to the most, even though it has the potential to be a poor one, just to see how Glover copes with Rampage. But no bets until the weigh ins. Demetrious Johnson Versus John Dodson I was a fan of Dodson throughout his spell at the Ultimate Fighter, and knew from day one that he was going to win that. This fight won't be a case of deciding on this because of the weigh ins, as there is no doubt Demetrious Johnson's cardio will be ready for 30 rounds of action, he has an endless gas tank, and cardio will never be an issue for him. The thing is, can Dodson keep up with his pace? I highly doubt it, I don't think anyone can to be honest. Dodson will definitely need the KO to win this, and if he's to get it, he'll need it early, because Johnson usually looks fresher in the 5th round than he does in the 1st. I do like Dodson, but he hasn't really impressed me too much in his last two wins, the decision victory over Tim Elliot wasn't the most convincing and his KO win over Formiga was a boring and tentative fight which ended with one flash punch. But this comes back to Dodson's tank versus Johnson's, I can't see Dodson connecting with any powerful KO punches and Johnson will literally run rings around him until he tires, so I'd have to say Johnson by decision stands out to me on this, as that tends to be the way he wins his fights. Although if Dodson's gas completely drains (which it probably will), Johnson may be able to finish the fight in the later rounds, if he wants to. There are my initial thoughts on the main card of UFC on FOX 6 this Saturday, expect a full review on Saturday evening with my specific bets. I may focus more on singles with low stake accumulators as well, as judging by the last card, I was really unlucky with a few decisions which cost me accumulators and my singles managed to save the day. Two singles I'm leaning to the most at the moment are Glover Teixeira to win inside the distance/or submission (depending on the odds) and Demetrious Johnson to win by decision (yet again, depending on the odds, would want odds of evens or better for this) Thanks for reading, and be sure to come back on Saturday evening 3-4 hours before the event starts to check out my full preview of the card, if anyone else has any views/knowledge on this card, feel free to share :)
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Re: UFC on FX 7
A poor decision from Prado cost me and a poor judge decision in the Viera fight costing another accumulator, didn't think it was going to be my night, but saved it with 2/3 singles right in the main card at odds of 5/1 and evens. Much more confident with picking fights for the next couple of cards coming up, was always going to be a few dodgy decisions on this card.HORRIBLE split decision cost me in that last leg of the bet, Viera definitely won 2 rounds to 1, very unlucky. Main Card Singles: Khabib Nurmagomedov by KO/TKO @ 5/1 Sarafian inside the distance @ 6/5 Main event to end by KO/TKO @ evens -
Re: UFC on FX 7 HORRIBLE split decision cost me in that last leg of the bet, Viera definitely won 2 rounds to 1, very unlucky. Main Card Singles: Khabib Nurmagomedov by KO/TKO @ 5/1 Sarafian inside the distance @ 6/5 Main event to end by KO/TKO @ evens
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Re: UFC on FX 7 Prado's awful submission defense cost him what was a fight he had controlled, gone for a new bet with Alcantara, Barboza, Markes and Viera :hope
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First post here, had a fair bit of success on the UFC in the past, recently winning a 76/1 shot so thought I'd share my views on this card, which does seem pretty tough to call, and there's a big opportunity for a few upsets tonight. I'll look through each fight with finally the bets I have put on. Trinaldo (11-2-0) Versus CJ Keith (8-1-0) For this fight I really can't look past Trinaldo and the odds reflect this as what I see as a poor matchup for CJ Keith. Trinaldo is an absolute beast for this weight class and judging by CJ Keith's first performance in the UFC which was a KO/TKO loss to Ramsey Nijem, who is miles from the standard of Trinaldo's striking and power, I can't see this lasting very long, more than likely Trinaldo within the first round by KO. The only problem is, Trinaldo tends to run out of gas pretty quickly, so if this does go beyond the first round and into the 2nd/3rd round then CJ Keith might have some luck and be able to win a decision purely down to having the better cardio, although he will struggle to survive against someone with such power as Trinaldo IMO. Prado (8-1-0) Versus Alcantara (17-5-0) Alcantara has taken this fight on short notice and Prado, and it does seem like the UFC have set this up for an easy win for Prado to get his first UFC win after being smothered by Phil Davis in his debut fight (which I think was a co-main event), so he clearly needs this win as he opens in at the 2nd fight of the night, which suggests another loss and we might not see him fight in the UFC until he can get another streak of wins under his belt. Alcantara (26-4-0) Versus Nobre (14-1-2) Yes there are 2 Alcantara's on this card, and although I have gone for the first one to lose, I do think his brother will win this one, and pretty comfortably. Barboza (10-1-0) Vesus Martins (11-0-0) Barboza is coming off a shock KO loss to Jamie Varner, but I think this will definitely spur him on to get back on track to winning ways, I believe Barboza will be too much for Martins to handle, and just hope he isn't going to be timid and have his last fight in the back of his head and worried to go forwards and attack, I'm sure he'll be pumped for this fight and should comfortably take this. Nunes (18-3-0) Versus Lentz (24-5-2) I do think this is one of the tougher fights to call, and should be a great fight to watch. Lentz can be a dangerous guy but Nunes is prolific for his fights going the distance, and he has a good record with the judges. Also, with this fight being in his hometown of Brazil, I think in a close fight, if it goes to decision, he will win on the judges scorecards. Brazil is known for crazy judge decisions, especially in favour of the Brazilians. I remember a fight recently where the Brazilian fighter easily lost all 3 rounds and yet one judge still gave him a 30-27 win. So, if this is a tight fight (which i expect it to be), that goes the distance, I can't see past Nunes taking the decision victory, even if Lentz edges it, the judges will probably hand the win to Nunes. Ronny Markes (13-1-0) Versus Andrew Craig (8-0-0) Andrew Craig is coming off one of the greatest comebacks in UFC history. He was dominated in the first round, and the majority of the second, until he connected with a highlight reel head kick KO out of nowhere, he is very lucky to still hold that undefeated record, and I am really looking forward to seeing him fight again. However, he's REALLY going to struggle against an explosive fighter like Ronny Markes, who will definitely look to take him down as quick as possible and grind out a decision victory. Although as Craig has proven, his striking is very dangerous and it only takes one hit and the fight could be over, the only problem is, his takedown defence is going to have to be great and he'll need to keep his distance to keep the fight standing, if he can do this then I wouldn't be surprised to see him win, and it would be worth an outside shot with a single on Andrew Craig at odds of around 13/5 currently. However, from past fights, he has been taken down quite frequently and I do think this will be the way Ronny Markes goes about the fight, and I expect him to smother Craig to an easy decision victory. Godofredo Pepey (9-1-0) Versus Milton Viera (13-7-2) Pepey did look good on TUF Brazil, however in the finale against Rony Jason, he didn't look too great, and lost to unanimous decision. Both fighters do rely on their BJJ in fights, as neither are great standing and I do believe Viera is the better grappler of the two. Pepey will spend most of the fight on his back and I believe Viera's experience will give him positional dominance throughout the fight and he'll win by unanimous decision. Thiago Tavares (21-4-1) Versus Khabib Nurmagomendov (18-0-0) This is an interesting fight, and i've been looking forward to seeing Khabib fight again, and he is one crazy fighter. I think Khabib will dominate the fight with just his pure craziness in attacks, it doesn't look pretty, but it does the job. I believe he'll just be too much for Tavarez to handle, and he has recently changed his training camps which can only help the young Russian improve more. I'd like to see him fight a bit more technically, as he has great potential. But then again, if Tavarez can cope with the pace and power of Khabib (his chin hasn't held up too great in the past), I wouldn't be surprised if he did take a decision victory purely down to how wild Khabib can be, which i'm sure will be the cause of his first loss in the UFC, as a more technical fighter will look to land punches and score more effectively than how Khabib fights. Still, it'll be interesting to see if Khabib's fighting style has changed, and if it has, it'll only be improved from his last fight. I'm not ruling out a Tavarez win, but I just think Khabib will be too much and likely to take a KO/TKO victory, or it could be a very tough fight to call if it goes the distance. Ben Rothwell (32-8-0) Versus Gabriel Gonzago (13-6-0) This is one of the tougher fights to call, Ben Rothwell could easily take the KO victory here as Gonzago's chin isn't the best, however, Rothwell has had an injury during his training up to this fight and it looks to have affected him at the weigh ins, he looked in great shape for his last fight, but definitely doesn't look anyway near as good for this fight. On that basis alone, if Gonzago does fight smart, I believe Rothwell won't have the gas to last the 3 rounds and Gonzago can take advantage of that and grind out the win. But like I said, tough fight to call, you never know which Rothwell will show up on the day, and exactly how good/bad his training regime went. Daniel Sarafian (8-2-0) Versus CB Dolloway (13-5-0) I believe this fight has been set up as a test for Sarafian to pass, I think Sarafian will just be too much for CB Dolloway to cope with and will finish this fight pretty quickly, he tends to like to submit guys when he has them hurt rather than finishing them off by KO/TKO. So tough to call how this fight will finish, but I definitely think there will be a finish, and Sarafian will walk away a comfortable winner. Vitor Belfort (21-10-0) Versus Michael Bisping (24-4-0) As the odds suggest, this is a tough fight to call. I really won't be surprised if Belfort comes out throwing everything he has in the early rounds, and it'll be down to Bisping to close the distance and fight smart for the early stages of the fight. With it being in Brazil, I do think this is how Belfort will take the fight, and he'll look for an early finish, if Bisping can hold on, I'm sure it'll be a case of Belfort fading away and gassing himself. For that reason, I am actually going for Bisping to take this fight, although it honestly won't surprise me to see a Belfort KO in either round 1 or 2. However, Bisping has been told he gets a title shot if he wins this fight, and I believe he is a really smart fighter and will know exactly what to do to win this, whether he gets a late stoppage due to overwhelming a gassed Belfort who isn't able to defend himself, or grind out a Unanimous Decision victory. This is all down to if Bisping can close the distance, fight smart early on, and ensure he DOESN'T get tagged, otherwise it'll be an early KO win for Belfort. Now I've done that, onto my specific bets that I have picked out. My ''safe'' accumulator is: Francisco Trinaldo Wagner Prado Yuri Alcantara Edson Barboza To increase the odds a little bit, I have another with Sarafian and Viera added to the bet. Another outside shot I have gone for is that ''safe'' bet plus: Sarafian to win in the first round Khabib Nurmagomendov by KO/TKO Belfort/Bisping fight to end by KO/TKO This is an outside bet for obvious reasons, but you can get EVENS money on the main event to end via KO/TKO which if Belfort is to win, the way I believe he will win the fight, and I don't see Bisping being able to KO Belfort, but if this fight does see the later rounds, I believe Bisping may be able to get the TKO victory from a gassed Belfort being unable to defend himself. Finally, I always like to stick £1 on an accumulator of all the fights, where I'll always stick in a few surprise results in just to get better odds, mainly for entertainment purposes. Note: I don't expect this to win, realistically I'd expect to get around 7/11 of these correct. Trinaldo Prado Alcantara Barboza Nunes Craig Viera Nurmagomendov Gonzago Sarafian Bisping This card is full of fighters stepping in on short notice, and many fighters that lack UFC experience so it's always tough to call how a fighter will fight under the pressure of the UFC, these bets for this card are more interest bets and the only one I am really confident with is the ''safe'' bet, but that doesn't give the greatest odds which is why i've added a few more bets with different outcomes to increase the returns. Fingers crossed this'll be an entertaining event, and it's always a bonus if any of my bets come in :D
Confederations Cup 2013
in Other International Predictions
Posted
Re: Confederations Cup 2013 More of an interest bet than anything else, I don't rate Brazil's defending of set pieces too highly. I can see Brazil giving away a lot of free kicks this game and Spain will have loads of chances to fire it into the box, here's hoping Pique picks up from the Italy game and finishes one of his chances! Pique FGS @ 22/1 and Pique anytime @ 9/1, both with Bet365.