Irefutabilul
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Posts posted by Irefutabilul
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Re: EURO 2012 Qualifiers - Saturday 4 June
Sport Football (Internationals) Event Portugal v Norway Selection Portugal -1.25 Strength 10/10 Date 04/06/2011 Bookmaker/Price SBOBet @ 1.89 Reasoning Let's be honest - no matteer how much would Norway want to get a result tonight - but Portugal are one of the best teams in the world not only in Europe, and most likely than not, they will get thrashed. The standing are also such made that Portugal cannot afford any mistake. Norway lead the standing actually, with 10 points, while Portugal come second with three points less, meaning that they must win tonight against a direct opponent. Portugal are well-known for their great defence and pacy counters, creativity, flair. It will be a matter of time until they score the first goal, and afterwards, their wingers will do the job on the break. Strong home win - can't see any other result but a home win, maybe only if Norway score the first goal and Portugal get in trouble, but this is less likely to happen in my view. -
Re: ARGENTINA Primera Division 2011 Thread
Sport Football (Argentina) Event Godoy Cruz - Gimnasia L.P. Selection Under 1.5 Strength 10/10 Date 30/05/2011 Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 3.50 Reasoning Lanus are expected to have an easy match against struggling Huracan but I wouldn't say so. Huracan can no longer afford to lose points and I would expect them to fight for their lives when they face Lanus. However, the class is not on their side and I wouldn't risk anything on that. I will take the under instead. I think they will play more defensive than usually and Lanus will not have an easy task scoring against them. On the other hand, Huracan have been struggling big times in front of goal while Lanus have had a great defence, so wouldn't see them scoring. Under 1.5 is the call. -
Re: Russian Football Leagues 2011
Sport Football (Russia) Event Amkar v Volga Selection Under 1.5 Strength 10/10 Date 30/05/2011 Bookmaker/Price Betclic @ 2.65 Reasoning Amkar have been extremely week so far this season and my original thought regarding this match was to back the visitors. It was not longer an option when I saw the odds. Volga have been a pleasant surprise so far this season and they look decent enough, but they tend to get overrated when they get this favorite statute. They have a great defence and Amkar have many problems at scoring, so they will surely make it tight at the back, but Amkar will be hungry for points after winning two times so far this season and standing third from the bottom. Plus, Amkar might have problems at scoring but their defence wasn't so bad. One problem for today will be the missing of their first choice goalkeeper - Narubin - replaced by Khomutovskiy. Belarusian player played between the sticks last round at Rostov and his team lost 0-3. The last goal was clearly his mistake, and he's probably lost his credit, but I wouldn't say he was so bad overall. I'm taking the under. Both teams will be interested not to lose this one while both are rather good at defending than scoring. It is a low total but I can hardly see them scoring three or more, so in the worst most probable case we will have this bet void. -
Re: Tennis - The French Open
Sport Tennis Event Kanepi v Makarova Selection Makarova ML Strength 10/10 Date 28/05/2011 Bookmaker/Price 5Dimes @ 2.82 Reasoning Kaia Kanepi looked better yesterdays after a less-impressive match agains Sofia Ardvidsson but I still think she shouldn't be such favorite. Makarova might not play on her best surface but she's been fairly decent so far, easily beating Romina Oprandi (despite losing a set) and Johanna Larsson. She is 4-3 on clay this season, better than Kanepi's 2-3, and she can be proud of recently beating high-rated Yanina Wickmayer at Madrid. The two players have played each other twice (1-1) but it's been a long time ago and only one match was on clay anyway. I think Makarova can pull out a little suprise today. -
Tennis Roland Garros
Sport Tennis Event Kanepi v Makarova Selection Makarova ML Strength 10/10 Date 28/05/2011 Bookmaker/Price 5Dimes @ 2.82 Reasoning Kaia Kanepi looked better yesterdays after a less-impressive match agains Sofia Ardvidsson but I still think she shouldn't be such favorite. Makarova might not play on her best surface but she's been fairly decent so far, easily beating Romina Oprandi (despite losing a set) and Johanna Larsson. She is 4-3 on clay this season, better than Kanepi's 2-3, and she can be proud of recently beating high-rated Yanina Wickmayer at Madrid. The two players have played each other twice (1-1) but it's been a long time ago and only one match was on clay anyway. I think Makarova can pull out a little suprise today. -
Sport Euro Basketball Event Artland Dragons - Bamberg Selection Artland Dragons ML Strength 10/10 Date 28/05/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 3.30 Reasoning Game 4 and Bamberg lead the series 2-1. I will stick with my bet in Game 2 when I took Artland to win the match. It can happen again tonight. Artland Dragons have already proved that they can beat Bamberg, winning Game 2 with an impressive 86:72 and actually dominating the clash starting with the second quarter. There's no other option for Artland, because if they lose tonight - their season is over. Hence, I expect them to be fired up and if not qualify at least tie the series and win one more game to bring the series until the final match. I don't like the spread but the ML is a good option. -
Re: UEFA Champions League Final: FC Barcelona v Manchester United - Saturday 28th May
Sport Football (Champions League) Event Barcelona v Manchester United Selection Over 3.5 Strength 10/10 Date 28/05/2011 Bookmaker/Price Unibet @ 4.60 Reasoning We've got a Champions League final tonight! Arguably, this the most important match of the season for any European club and both would do anything to lift the trophy. I'm not touching the sides. I think that Barcelona are probably the best team in the world but United can make it tight too and win the trophy. The Red Devils have got plenty team chemistry lately, and I would say that they're even better than they used to be a few years ago when Ronaldo was playing. Barca, on the other hand, are well-known for their striking force and their "tiki-taka" that usually stuns their opponents. The match is of a crucial importance, that's not an issue, but we've got two striking forces on the other hand. Messi & co can score anytime, against any defence. United defence is hugely overrated in my opinion. They should have conceded more goals so far in this competition and their defence has been flimpsy at times, as well as in the Premier league. But they can score. According to some news, Rooney will start up front while Nani and Hernadez will start from the bench. I think I know exactly what Sir Alex is interested to do. He wants to rest them for the first half when nothing will be decided yet, and throw them in attack later in the second half when Barca players will be more tired and these guys will run more fast thus, hiting on the break and creating mess up-front. Barca, on the other hand, is such a team that can score even from the first minutes. Anything can happen and it will be down to a lot of things. One thing I am sure is that this total has been set too low. 2.25 is not a total for Barca - United. No matter how important the match is, but the losing team will throw everything up-front in order to equalize, and this could lead to even more goals. Possesionally, or on the break, but one of them will score. -
Re: Russian Football Leagues 2011
Sport Football (Russia) Event Rubin v Tomsk Selection Rubin -2 (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 27/05/2011 Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 3.20 Reasoning I'm not a fan of Rubin and I never really liked their football. If you remember, I used to go against them a lot of times last season. They haven't got any better ever since and they still have problems, especially at scoring. They miss a leader up-front who can put the ball in the net. Nevertheless, I think this price suggests good value. Tomsk have looked pathetically bad to me on the road and the only reason why they haven't lost their last two matches was because Lady Luck was on their side. Against Krasnodar, they've been lucky to escape a 0-2 lead of the home team, while they've been terribly lucky again to beat Zenit the next round. I just don't think they can handle it again and pick up any more points. There's only one winner when these two teams meet today, and that is Rubin. The ex-xhampions will dominate the clash and make the rules, it's only a matter of how many they score, and this price is good enough to take this risk. -
Re: Italy - Serie A - 22.05.2011
Sport Football (Italy) Event Brescia v Fiorentina Selection Brescia win Strength 10/10 Date 22/05/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 3.26 Reasoning Brescia have been already relegated and there's no stake in the middle, but almost the same can be said about Fiorentina, who can't go up any more and a virtual win would bring them nothing but better records. In my opinion, Brescia was a good team. Had their circumstances been different I think they could have saved themselves from relegation. One last match in the Serie A in front of their fans - what would be better if not a win? Fiorentina have been amazingly pathetic on the road this season, never really playing well and their records also suggest that. Being set as favorites, when they don't need and can't do it anyway, is a major mistake in my opinion. I would expect at least an even match and Brescia not to lose. -
Re: Italy - Serie A - 22.05.2011
Sport Football (Italy) Event Lecce v Lazio Selection Lecce DNB Strength 10/10 Date 22/05/2011 Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 5.00 Reasoning Lazio can still qualify for Champions Leagues but many wonders would be supposed to happen. Udinese would be supposed to lose their clash with Milan, which in my opinion is not going to happen, and Lazio to win at Lecce of course. But the Romans have not been so solid as their stats suggest. I was never impressed by them this season and they wouldn't deserve a Champions League place anyway. Lecce have been decent at home and in order to celebrate their stay in the Serie A, a win would be a nice gift for their fans. So even if I don't expect them to play their usual game, I still think they won't make any favours to Lazio and will have a good chance to get something out of it. On the other hand, if Udinese leads Milan, Lazio might give it up at some moment. So all in all, Lecce worths a punt. -
Re: Spain - La Liga - 21 May
Sport Football (Spain) Event Levante v Zaragoza Selection Levante DNB Strength 10/10 Date 21/05/2011 Bookmaker/Price Betsafe @ 4.55 Reasoning Around 8,000 tickets have been sold and I'm not talking about Levante fans. It's how many Zaragoza fans will attent this match, on the road, to support their team. A win and Zaragoza will play in La Liga for at least one more season while anything else will send them straight back to Segunda. As for Levante, they have already secured their presence in La Liga with a draw at Valencia last round, and on the paper at least, they don't have any stake for tonight. But the rumours are, Levante will get paid to not give it up. Other teams involved in this are suspected to have offered money to Levante to motivate them to get a result. Personally, I have my reasons to believe that Levante won't make any favours to Zaragoza even with no money at the stake. But if that's the case - it's even better for this bet. Being priced -0.75 on the road when you never got this spread the whole season - it does mean something. And I don't think struggling Zaragoza, who've been so poor so far, really deserve that. the motivation is on their side but there are several teams in that situation and not all of them will save up. Someone has to go down and Zaragoza has the best chance, in my opinion. -
Re: UEFA Europa League Final > 18 May
Sport Football (Europa League) Event Braga v Porto Selection Braga to lift the trophy Strength 10/10 Date 18/05/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 5.00 Reasoning Europa League final. Porto were originally opened as -1 favorites and the price has been going down ever since, becoming -1.25 at the moment. Of course, Porto are the favorites of the clash and no one can doubt that. The only problem is, I don't think they deserve to be such favorites. Both teams are from Portugal and probably know each other very well, and if this was a league match the situation would be different I suppose. But we've got a final here. The spirits are high in the air and the pressure is on, even on Porto. Braga players feel their momentum and playing the final of the Europa League - it usually boosts the underdog. Porto have got a wonderful team and they've proved on many occasions how good they are, but Braga have been clinical on counters and their defence has been solid like a rock this season. Even on the road. Some people say they are tyical home team and that they can't play on the road. I wouldn't say so. I liked them very much at Liverpool, Dinamo Kiev and not lastly - Benfica, and they always defended well while also creating goalscoring opportunities. Porto have been really dominant in this competition but mainly because of their strong attack, not necessarily because of their defence who was quite exposed at times. If Braga make no mistake at the back, they will have a wonderful chance to make it tight until the last minutes and eventually pick up a glorious result. -
Re: Spain - La Liga - 15 May
Sport Football (Spain) Event Getafe v Osasuna Selection Getafe -1.5 (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 15/05/2011 Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 3.20 Reasoning Osasuna would be a top Primera side if not their poor away record. They've been arguably impressive at home, picking up 33 points out of 18 matches, but you will hardly see a worse team when it comes to road. Playing against an extremely motivated Getafe won't be an easy task, and frankly speaking, I don't see them getting any points tonight. Getafe are in real danger to relegate and ONLY the three points will mean a good job today. As for Osasuna, their coach told to press that they must win this match and not depend on other matches, but with 44 points already on board and standing 14th in the table - I think the chances are quite low to go down. No way I'm suggesting that they will give it up and wait for other results, just saying that the match is do-or-die for Getafe while Osasuna won't feel big pressure even if they lose tonight. But that's just talk. The real reason is the huge difference between Getafe at home and Osasuna on the road. -0.5 is only a minimal advantage while I firmly believe the hosts should be priced shorter. -
Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-15 May
Sport Football (Italy) Event Napoli v Inter Selection Over 3.5 Strength 10/10 Date 15/05/2011 Bookmaker/Price Boylesports @ 3.50 Reasoning It looks like many people expect that this match will end up in a draw, the odds are also set in that way, but who said it will also be an under? First of all, I'm not even convinced that they will tie it. Napoli have a chance to finnish second and I'm not sure if they are interested to get involved in this as long as they can win their place in the Champions League on the pitch. Apart from that, both teams have got great strikers while both have had many problems at the back during the season. Cavani is out, OK, but Napoli is not all about Cavani. They've got Lavezzi up front and one of the best and most creative middles in the league which can create danger out of nothing. Inter, on the other hand, have always been a great striking force while Napoli never a disciplined defence...so all in all I think both team can make pay each other and offer a real show for the fans. -
Re: Italy - Serie A - 7-9 May Sampdoria are more close to Serie B than ever with only one point and one position clear the relegation zone. Also taking into account that they will play Palermo and Roma in the last two rounds, the only good result tonight would be a win and pick up the three points. Genoa seemingly play for nothing and they might look an easy mark for super-motivated Sampa, but let's not forget that both teams are from the same city and both play on the same stadium. Home match for both, while Genoa fans will simply love to see Sampdoria relegated. With nothing but pride left at the stake this season, Genoa will probably play their last match of the season with something at the stake - beating Sampdoria and "help" them relegate. As for strenght....well, Genoa have been one of the most solid home teams in the Serie A, while we can't really say the same thing about their city-rivals, who've been irregular and pathetic at times, or otherwise they wouldn't be in this situation. Omar Milanetto, Dario Dainelli and Rodrigo Palacio are back from suspension for Genoa. Both teams in full strenght. Bet: Genoa (0) @ 1.88 IBC
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 7-9 May I just don't understand these odds. I do agree that Milan can still win the title even if they fail tonight while Roma simply can't afford not to win if they have any intention to play in the Champions League next season, but, that doesn't has any relevance on the pitch. For me, there's no question that Milan are the best team in the league. Home or road, they are the best. And assuming that they will enter the pitch "thinking" that nothing bad happens if they don't win tonight, is a very wrong option if you ask me. The market seems to like Roma more and odds keep rising on Milan. Close to +0.25 or even level ball, but this can't be accurate if based on their strenght. The Romans have had and better times during the season, for exampe against Chievo recently when they simply played quality football, but unfortunatelly, that isn't a very solid trend and the bad times prevail. They still have to work on their defence while Vucinic and his mates should hit the target more often. Adding that Perrotta and De Rossi - two important Roma players - are both banned, while Milan welcome back Ibra and Pato, I just think the visitors deserve a favorite statute tonight. Milan to win tonight & Milan to win the title in Italy. Milan (0) @ 2.16 188bet
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Manchester Utd v Schalke > Weds 4 May As you know, it was me who backed Schalke in the first leg. I knew I can't put too much faith in this German team but on the other hand, I was hoping that United will play their usual football on the road and we'll get an even match more or less. It was never going to happen, though. Schalke have played unexpectedly bad while United have played unexpectedly well. It was, maybe their best road perfomance of the season and of course, probably, it wouldn't have happened if not Schalke defenders "inviting" them to score. I have to say that I can't remember when was the last time I've assisted to such poor defending, especially in the Champions League semi-finals. United could have easily won by five goals and would have been a fair result. What do we expect in this return leg? Well, taking into account that United have been really strong at home while Schalke not a force on the road (despite their success), it only points out to a home win. However, Sir Alex will make rotations, and on the top of that, I know him too well to take United with this spread. They will play to get through not to thrash the German side, although, it might happen if the chances occur. What do I like is the over. Even if United make some changes, even if Rooney and Hernandez don't play, they can still score. Berbatov will play up front and I have big respect for him this season. In the midfield, we still have Nani and Valencia who can always create danger. But the best part is, Schalke need a 2-0 win at least to have a chance. It is likely that not even Schalke players believe they can get through, but they are not allowed to give it up. They will play their slim chance and the only way they could do it, is to play pushy right from the start and throw up many players. United, on the other hand, always score many goals when they don't need to. They love to do counters, and with every Schalke attack, they will have a chance to score on the break. According to media, Owen will partner Berbatov up-front. I agree, he's not what he used to be, but he will be interested to prove that he can still do it, and he won't get a better chance if not against a poor defence, and when the pressure is off. Another good thing is, high-rated Van der Sar will be replaced by Kuszczak. So all in all, I expect both teams to create good chances and while I don't trust United to beat the spread despite their superiority, I do believe we will see some goals scored no matter how well does Neuer play tonight. Manchester United v Schalke over 2.5 @ 2.03 Sbobet
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 12 April A legendary clash tonight when Manchester United face Chelsea to win a place in the Champions League semifinals. Many things can change, but such encounter will always be of high importance and the spirits will surely be high in the air. It's about honour and fans, it's about "who is who" in the Premier League and of course - the highly awaited ticket for the semifinal is at the stake. Only Ajax and Inter Milan have previously managed to overturn a first-leg home defeat and get through in a similar case, and no matter how odds are set, I think that most football fans can safely state that United have got the first chance tonight. As a Red Devils fan, I will be hoping that United get a good match and don't make any silly mistakes. However, as a bettor, I have another choice for tonight and let's talk about in the next paragraph: I take the over. I don't care that Torres hasn't scored for 648 minutes. I only know he's a super-striker and this can happen anytime. The Blues are not all about Torres anyway, they've got class and so many reasons to score tonight, and defending the 0-0 starting score won't pay the "bills". On the other hand, United have got one of the best attacks in the Premier League, with this guy Nani playing the season of his life and then Chicharito/Berbatov and Rooney always creating danger. None of the two teams has a very solid defence while both teams can easily score. The circumstances are also such created that Chelsea will have to play pushy right from the start, which means United can hit on the break. So all in all, I can smell good scoring opportunities for both sides and this total, 2.25, is not exactly a true reflection of what I think will happen. Manchester United v Chelsea over 2.25 @ 1.99 IBC
EURO 2012 Qualifiers - Saturday 4 June
in Euro 2024 Tips & Predictions
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Re: EURO 2012 Qualifiers - Saturday 4 June