wedgec
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Posts posted by wedgec
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Re: UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers > Thursday October 9th Last time we played them Joe Hart was getting massive cheers every time he touched the ball, don't think they'll get a corner myself.
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Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th Also was tempted by the Mascherano man of the match bet tipped by Kevshat however I've looked into the previous man of the matches and only eleven outfield players have won man of the match who haven't scored a goal since the start of the tournament, and only one of these wasn't an attacking player (Mikel v Iran 0-0). Meanwhile there have been 12 goalkeepers getting man of the match and either goalie to be MOTM is 13 with boyle sports which I think represents some value in what I predict to be a tight game.
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Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th I think this will be a close game, with Argentina already having kept 4 clean sheets and had 4 games out of 6 under 1.5 goals. Germany thrashed Brazil and Portugal, but both of these teams played into Germany's hands by attacking them and Argentina are a better team than both of those. The better teams (or at least the more cohesive teams) that Germany have played have both been 1-0 wins against USA and France, and I think the France game is the best one to use as a comparison. I do however think we will see 2 goals here. If one team is chasing the game late on I can see either them scoring with the attacking talent and throwing the kitchen sink at it, or a team catching the chasing team on the break. Therefore I will be playing exactly 2 goals at 3.4 with Bet365, which obviously covers 1-1 and 2-0 either way.
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Re: Sky Bet League 1 > Saturday March 8th
It's Walsall's cup final but the Wolves are clambering for the tickets! :lolits a "derby" and like a cup final for walsall to play wolves. walsall ground holds around 11,000. weve officially bought about 4,000 away tickets and many more actually expected. rumours say our fans will outnumber theirs. we are also eager to get revenge for defeat to walsall at our place. they say dont back your own team.... well F that this weekend. im balls deep in this bet. away win, wolves -1, wolves ht/ft -
Re: Sky Bet League 1 > Saturday February 1st I think BTTS is a good call in the shrews v Brentford game. Shrews caretaker said before the Swindon game that he was going there to attack and true to his word they attacked and were unlucky not to get a win. I think he'll set his team up in the same way here and we'll see plenty of chances for both! Sent from my GT-I9100 using PL Forum
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Re: Sky Bet League 1 > November 30th & December 1st Swindon v Carlisle Under 2.5 goals EVENS Stan James Carlisle's last 4 away games against Rotherham, Gillingham, MK Dons and Oldham were all under 1.5 goals. Swindon's recent games at home have all been high scoring affairs but these have been against teams that were willing to attack Swindon, instead of playing not to concede. The last two teams to park the bus at the county ground were Notts County and Tranmere, which finished 2-0 and 1-0 respectively. Nile Ranger is also still expected to be out so gives Swindon less firepower.
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You could use this exact write-up for BTTS and over 2.5 goals too. Over 2.5 goals is probably the better of the two as if this game is 1-1 then surely England will be going all out for the 3rd goal?! Sent from my GT-I9100 using PL ForumGroup H England v Poland 20.00 There's a good article on the back page of the Racing Post this morning looking back at previous crunch England qualifying games where they were similar short odds to win. Apparently in October 2001, England were 1/5 to beat Greece at Old Trafford - but needed a late Beckham free kick to draw 2-2 when it looked as though they would lose. In November 2007, England were 4/7 to beat Croatia, but lost 3-2 and failed to qualify for Euro 2008. The Racing Post later conclude that England will win, but add that Poland could be 'popular' on the 2 goal Asian handicap, implying some sort of value there, although tipping Rooney first scorer at 9-2 as their recommended bet. I don't think Poland are particularly good, but how good are England? More importantly, how much better than Poland are England? Until last Friday's impressive 4-1 thrashing of Montenegro, England's only wins in the qualifiers had been against Moldova and San Marino. Poland lost narrowly in Ukraine to end their own hopes. England';s Head to head record against Poland at Wembley is a story of narrow England wins - 2-1 3-1 2-1 England's recent home record is pretty impressive - 6 wins and 2 draws since Euro 2012. In the same period, Poland have only won away in San Marino, losing in Estonia, Ireland and Ukraine and drawing in Montenegro and Moldova. Poland will be well supported at Wembley tonight according to the media - will that work for or against their team? Will their fans' support encourage then to play too openly giving the superior England attackers more space than they would normally? Or will it give them a lift and help them get a good result? The price on the Poland +2 AH handicap is big enough to make it worth considering I think - Poland +2AH 1.72 Ladbrokes -
Re: Manchester United v Chelsea - Mon 26th August
Chelsea hardly have a load of new signings to bed in, and it's quite likely that none of the new signings will start. Money coming in for United at the moment, but the draw looks to hold the most value at 3.4. Someone has already mentioned that both teams would probably be happy with a draw, and someone else stated that Chelsea shut down in the second half against Hull (in typical Mourinho fashion). 1-1 scoreline for me, with Chelsea looking to negate any United threat and then use players like Hazard and Mata to cause problems at the other end.Every man and his dog had written off United before the season even started - so the lack of signings is a problem? Don't forget United blew the rest of the league away with this very squad last year - like City, Chelsea have a load of new signings that need to bed in and Old Trafford is a massive place to go to for the first time Word is that Rooney will start - not so sure myself due to lack of fitness for such a big game and the obvious tapping up by Jose meaning we won't get 100% out of him - I'd start with Kagawa in the hole - he's due a good game after a poor pre-season and is such a major talent if he's firing United to win 1-0 and I'm not going for the obvious RVP 1st goal but Evra at 23.00 (B365) -
Re: Sky Bet League 1 > 24th August
Swindon have also allowed Andy Williams to go out on loan to Yeovil for the season this week, leaving the only strikers as Nile Ranger (unfit) and Miles Storey (inexperienced and more of an impact sub type player). I'd say draw was the most probable result too.Thought the swine looked a poor price to be honest, 1.8ish is a crap price. Swindon have lost 2 of 3 and hardly look like world beaters, they probably have a better side than us but looking at the games we have played so far we have played 2 of the best sides in the league in Wolves and Brentford and a possible surprise package in Colchester who are currently 4th. There is a slight edge to this in that some Gills fans consider this a derby match due to a number of scuffles between the clubs over the years, Swindon don't really feel the same but the match has a definite edge to it..the behaviour of both sets of fans has been poor over the years at this fixture. Don't expect us to win, draw wouldn't be a big surprise but I would be surprised if many Swindon fans consider that a good price for the home win, in true allthethings style I would go for the draw! -
Torres isn't in the Spain squad Sent from my GT-I9100 using PL ForumShould be comfortable for us... One thing to take in mind is many of our spanish players probably won't start because of an international friendly in ecuador (Crazy i know). Meaning no Mata, Torres and Azpi. And i am fairly certain that Mou will go with Romelu over demba ba, based on everything we have seen on pre season... My expected lineup would be: Cech Ivan Luiz JT Cole Ramires MvG KDB Oscar Hazard Lukaku Though predicting our team has never really been harder (easier without the spainish options but so many positions uncertain especially the 2 in the pivot, as Essien has impressed in pre season and Lampard is well Lampard so you can never rule out him starting.) Bets wise, Mourinho back where he belongs, i expect the players to show up big time, though hull will probably just keep 11 men behind the ball making it difficult as they won't want to start of with a thrashing. I'm still expecting a quick start so my pick will be: Lukaku to score in the first 20 mins 9/1 365. -
Re: Manchester City v West Ham > Sat 27th April Does anyone think Man City half time/full time corners 1.75 at Ladbrokes holds value? I don't have any stats to back it up, but I would imagine the majority of play would be in WHU half from the start of the game and therefore a higher chance of corners? Seems a big price to me!
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Re: League 1 > 16th - 20th April I can't see anything past a Yeovil home win against Crewe today. Crewe have had a horrible run of games since their JPT win, losing against Donny, Brentford and Swindon. In the game away to Donny, they had 16 shots against their goal, and 20 away to Brentford. A demolition was just around the corner and that came against Swindon who beat them 4-1. It doesn't get any easier now against Yeovil. With the amount of shots the opposition have had against Crewe recently, I can see Paddy Madden having a field day! Yeovil win 1.7 William Hill Paddy Madden FGS 4.5 William Hill
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Re: League 1 > 1 April
Since MacDonald was appointed, Swindon have won twice and lost once away from home, all three games were against teams that were going well at the time. Swindon are also the 2nd best team in the league away from home in the last 6, with a 4-1-1 record. All of this was without Ritchie. Doncaster's last 6 at home reads 2-3-1 with wins against Hartlepool and Orient (back on Jan 19th). Both teams are in their respective league positions largely due to their away form, especially Donny who based on home games only would be 11th in the league! I can therefore see why Swindon are favourites for this game.Going to have to go strongly against your tip here Kev. Doncaster at 3.2 with Pinnacle is as good a value bet as you will find all season IMO. Everything has changed since Di Canio plus Ritchie left. Only thing that hasnt changed is the odds :lol. As Ian Holloway would say Swindon have lost their jiggle. Swindon minus Ritchie is like Liverpool without suarez just is not the same the spark is gone. How Swindon can be favourites away from home against a side above them in the league just defies all logic. If you had laid Swindon every game since dicanio left you would have +35% profit. That shows where the value lies. That will probably continue until the end of the season. If we look at Hull V Watford in the championship which is a not dissimilar scenario. There are 4 points difference between the 2 sides. Hull at home are priced 2.2 Watford away 3.8. And Watford havnt lost their best player or manager. -
Re: Southampton v Liverpool > Sat 16th March Every time I contemplate backing Liverpool, I'm always put off by the odds. The most likely result here is a Liverpool win - Liverpool have a good record away to teams in the bottom half of the table, taking 13 points from 6 games, a points per game ratio which is only bettered by Man Utd. They are also in good form winning the last 3, and scoring an impressive 12 goals. I'd only be backing the win at evens or above though.
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Re: Npower Football League One & Two > 18th & 19th February Tranmere v Swindon - Under 2.5 goals 1.67 Betfred I actually went for the under 1.5 in the reverse fixture and was made to look stupid as Tranmere really didn't turn up and Swindon romped to a 5-0 victory. I still think there won't be much goals in this fixture though and under 2.5 looks good. Swindon's last 6 games have been under 2.5 goals and the last 5 away games have been under 2.5 goals. Paolo Di Canio may have left Swindon but his assistant, Fabrizio Piccareta, is taking charge, and having been Di Canio's verbal punchbag for the past 18 months or so, I would imagine he would set the team up in the same way. Tranmere's last 4 games at home have been under 2.5 goals and have become a bit of a hit or miss team since the last game against Swindon. I can see both teams playing for a 1-0 win or settling for a draw here, hence the under 2.5 bet.
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Re: Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United > Sat 9th February Newcastle have only won once away all season and that was against Villa who can basically get rolled over by anyone on their day. Spurs have had a mini wobble recently, with 3 draws and a win in the last 4, all of which have been under 2.5 goals. This game looks good for the trend to continue. Draw 4.1 BET365 Under 2.5 goals 2.1 Skybet
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Re: Swansea City v Queens Park Rangers > Sat 9th February
To put a different slant on your bet, Samba is 26.0 @ BET365 to score the last goal, which is great odds. Samba will be used as a makeshift striker by Harry when QPR are chasing a game/feeling they can nick it. If QPR are one down in a game he will be pushed up there to win long balls in the air and generally cause havoc. In games which could be quite tight such as this one, I think this is a definite play! At odds of 26.0 it would only need to come in once for the rest of the season for you to make a profit!Last week Samba was really impressing in the air, with free kicks and corners he was a permanent threat. Every free kick taarabt was looking for him. For Blackburn every year he scored 2 a 4 goals! So this week a take a little gamble bet with samba to score. odds 9.2 betfair. -
Re: League 1 > Sat 9th February So considering Pompey's new attacking signings, the 2.1 on both teams to score could be value? The only worry is that Bournemouth had kept 3 clean sheets in a row, then conceded only one against Crewe and Swindon, in their last 5 at home in the league.
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Re: League 1 > 21st Dec - 22nd Dec Swindon v Tranmere - Under 1.5 - 3.4 Ladbrokes It's difficult to predict a winner in this game. Swindon have been poor at home for a while and have achieved just 7 points in the last 6 home games. Tranmere are now no longer runaway leaders and find themselves joint top with Brentford, and the rest of the pack closing. Tranmere still have a lot of key players out and are currently looking at damage limitation until they are back. Swindon have a couple of important players back, but with none of the strikers firing, they are struggling to turn chances into goals. In Swindon's 11 home league games, 5 of them have been under 1.5 goals and in Tranmere's 11 away games, 4 have been under 1.5. In Swindon's last 4 games they have faced 3 teams in and around the promotion/playoff places, and 2 of these against Notts County and Brentford were under 1.5 goals. The other was under 2.5 goals. In Tranmere's last 4 games they have faced two teams in and around the promotion/playoff places. 1 of these was under 0.5 goals vs Sheff Utd, and 1 was under 2.5 goals vs Stevenage. Bearing all this in mind, I think a 1-0 looks the most probable scoreline, but without being able to pick a winner, under 1.5 goals is the best play here.
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Re: League 1 - Oct 27-29 The thing with Swindon is they have a core squad of 21 players, but they are all capable League One players, therefore "resting" players isn't really going to be an issue here. I do think the League Cup is going to be an obvious distraction though regardless of Paolo's comments, which only adds further weight to the argument. Even without the League Cup and all the pre-match comments I'd think Stevenage would be a strong bet! Something like Swindon's last 10 games have all been against teams in the bottom half of the table, and they've not won in the last three! Another thing to remember is Swindon have a bit of a giant killing reputation in cups under Di Canio (Wigan, Bristol City, Burnley, Stoke to name a few) and every time this has happened they have performed poorly in the game afterwards. Might be worth opposing them at next weekend or on Tuesday after at home to Sheff Utd!
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Re: Npower Football League One > 13th / 14th October Great odds on Preston v MK Dons on Sunday. Looking at the form Preston are 3-1-1 at home whilst MK Dons are 1-2-2 away. MK Dons solitary away win came against Bury who are bottom of the table. MK Dons centre backs are both out too. Preston dnb is 2.05 at William Hill!
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Re: England > Midweek > Div 1 and Div 2 > Tues 7th Feb I'm a Swindon fan and can go some way to explaining our pricing structure, although whether it's justified is another matter. The rules are that tickets have to be offered to away supporters at the same price as it would cost a home supporter in the same area of the ground. Price on the day in the Arkells Stand, where away fans get about a quarter, is £25 on the day, as is the Don Rogers stand opposite. The behind the goal stands are cheaper and if enough interest was shown, then one of these stands would be offered to the away fans (for instance the Oxford game). The reason we do not offer both stands to away supporters all the time is due to stewarding costs, and the behind the goal stand is uncovered and open to the elements. I'm unsure about away tickets, but there is a deduction for tickets bought in advance. Whilst it's no consolation to away fans, we do have one of the cheapest season tickets prices in the country, and a ticket at Gillingham can cost you £26! Apologies for going off topic, and the County Ground is amazing! ;) Edit: Wembley, Wembley, we're the famous Swindon Town and we're off to Wembley!
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Re: England: League Two Oct 29
Agree with this. Wimbledon seem to be in freefall at the moment, and expect more misery to be put on them here.Shrewsbury v AFC Wimbledon Shrewsbury Town Win - 1.9 William Hill Shrews are unbeaten since March in the league at home. They have won 6 on the spin at Greenhouse Meadow also. The Wombles were battered at Torquay on tuesday without their manager. Terry Brown misses this game again due to him caring for his wife who is battling cancer. They have shipped 12 goals in 3 games which is awful. Also, their main midfielder Christian Jolley sits this one out with injury. -
Re: England: League Two Oct 29 Morecambe v Gillingham - Gillingham +0.25 AH - 6/7 188bet This is a difficult as I think Gillingham are a better side than Morecambe, but Morecambe aren't 4th for nothing. That said Gills are only 2 points behind Morecambe and in the last 3 games they beat Oxford with 9 men, and thrashed Torquay away from home. Most recently they held Swindon until a late on wonder strike saw them eventually lose 2-0. Gillingham are one of the best footballing side in the league and I think they're just coming into some form.
Manchester City v Arsenal > Sunday January 18th
in Premier League Predictions
Posted
Re: Manchester City v Arsenal > Sunday January 18th
Do you know a site where I can get statistics for things like shots in the box? Thanks