Banjo Sandwich
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Posts posted by Banjo Sandwich
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Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt...
Cheers mate! I would like to try and develop my own system, would you be willing to advise me please?It's purely based on number crunching league stats & current form. I'll sort the Scots ratings out for you in a moment... -
Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt...
:clap Boom! Well done Fleet, great thread as always! Currently sitting £76.87 using your shortlists to cherry pick 3 home trebles! Any chance you would be willing to put the scottish games up like you did last year? Most interesting game this week will be Swansea v Sunderland - Swansea are flying but Sunderland untested and squad looks strong with some new additions... Out of interest Fleet, do you just use statistics in your system or do you put user input in for things like injuries and new siginings, new manager affect, etc... Really want to set up my own system but don't know where to begin...BD 9.82 BE 20.37 DE 18.22 BDE 72.14 Total returned £120.55, a profit of £102.35. :ok Banks now: Trebles +/-: -£10 Canadians £1017.27 (+/-: +£76.63) -
Re: League 2 > 21st August Anyone want to shed some light on why bookies are offering Morecambe at 11/8 tomorrow against newly premoted York??? I'm thinking this is a banker and should be more like 4/6???
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Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... Unlukcy Fleet! Still very promising from week 1 - I returned £20.00 profit after cherry picking a single, treble and 5-fold from most of your ratings! Southend was the single and the only team in the 5-fold to let me down - Where is Paul Sturrocks magical gift eh! Rotherham and Doncaster looked very impressive this weekend as well. Will you be doing mid-week games? Ta Luke
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Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... Good luck for the new season Fleet! As always will be following with interest and cherry picking some selections from your shortlists... Interesting you are maximizing betting odds with other bookies but still applying the BET365 rules for the shortlist... Any particular reason?
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Hi all,Ive been playing Texas hold'em socially for a year now and I'm looking to get involved in some online poker, mainly for small stakes. i.e. £5-10 buy ins.Ive never played online poker and looking for advice on the best site to start up on. One that offers free social play, no cash and cash tourneys and small stakes games?All advice/help welcomed and appreciated!CheersBanjo
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Re: Weekend > Scottish Divsions 1-3 > 28 January
Medium risk bet but agree with your thinking, Stenny are very poor at the moment! Might be worth DNB on East Fife just to cover yourself! Are you a Tryst road car parker?East Fife worth looking at away to Stenhousemuir. 3rd placed Stenhousemuir are absolutely down to the bare bones. A number of key players injured (including both centre halves I'm lead to believe) couple that with the fact they have lost their last four games confidence is very low. I have seen the past two home games and they shipping goals at an alarming rate. -
Re: Weekend > League 2 > 28/29 January
After reviewing this game, as one of my picks, whats concerning me is Torquay only scoring 8 goals in past 6 games and Northampton appear to be a bit of an away game team! They have the 9th best away record in league!!! Working fair odds outs... Torquay should be priced at 2.0 but best available is 1.75. Clearly on form Torquay should murder them but im skeptical... Good Luck!28/01/2012Torquay - Northampton6th in the standings against last. 11 wins in the last 15 matches for Torquay. 13 defeats in the last 17 matches for Northampton. Different form for the two teams. I think with a clear home win here. For me Asian Handicap of -1 here and not -0.75. There is -0.75 and I decided to take it.Torquay -3/4 @ 1.93 pinnacle -
Re: Weekend > Scottish Divsions 1-3 > 28 January Fixture: Cowdenbeath v Albion Rovers Selection: Cowdenbeath Strength: 9/10 Date: 28/01/2012 Bookmaker/Price: Various 4/9 (1.5) Reasoning: Cowdenbeath won 80% of home games and yet to lost a home game this season! Kept a clean sheet in 60% of their home matches, averaging at 0.5 goals conceded at home per game. Best defence in league. Score on average +2.0 goals per game at home. Current Form: W-D-L, (Goals F-A) Full: 3-2-1, (11-4) Home: 4-2-0, (11-1) Away: 2-2-2, (9-7) Freak result away to Forfar last time but what is encouraging is only conceding 4 goals in their last 6 games, 1 goal leaked in past 6 home matches. Unbeaten in last 10 home games! Albion Rovers worst away defence in league which is a shocker considering my local team Stirling Albion are in the league! Lost 73% of their away games, conceding 2.64 goals per game away from home. 73% of their away games have 3 or more goals! Current Form: W-D-L, (Goals F-A) Full: 1-0-5, (4-12) Home: 3-1-2, (14-8) Away: 2-0-4, (7-13) Lost their last 5 games and lost their last 4 away matches. Stats show they’ve leaked 12 goals in past 6 matches! Only scored 1 goal in their past 5 games. Cowdenbeath will be looking for the win to keep safe distance at top and Albion Rovers are in freefall at the moment. Working fair odds out on basis of this season results I get the following odds: Home Win = 1.31 Draw = 7.0 Away Win = 10.5 Best odds available at posting are 1.5 (4/9) at various bookmakers I expect odds to shorten and 4/9 this should be taken ASAP!!!! GL
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Re: Weekend > Scottish Divsions 1-3 > 28 January Fixture: Alloa Athletic v Montrose Selection: Alloa Strength: 8/10 Date: 28/01/2012 Bookmaker/Price: Coral - 4/7 (1.57) , Ladbrokes - 4/9 (1.44) Reasoning: Alloa not lost a home game all season, 2nd best home defence in league keeping a clean sheet in 44% of their home games. Won 67% of games at home and kept 3 clean sheets in a row at home in past 3 home games. Current Form: W-D-L, (Goals F-A) Full: 5-1-0, (14-3) Home: 4-2-0, (8-2) Away: 3-3-0, (12-5) Alloa have won their last 4 games and are unbeaten in their last 12 matches! They have only conceded 1 goal since boxing day! More impressive is they have scored 11 goals in their past 4 games (nearly 3 goals per game). Montrose have the 2nd worst away defence in the league conceding 2.36 goals per game. Not kept a clean sheet away from home this year. Leaked 12 goals in past 6 games. 16 goals conceded in past 6 away matches, +3.0 per game. Not beaten a top 4 side all season. Current Form: W-D-L, (Goals F-A) Full: 2-1-3, (12-12) Home: 3-1-2, (13-11) Away: 1-2-3, (12-16) Stats speak for themselves, Montrose managed a freak 4-0 win over Clyde two weeks ago but this team is very poor and leak goals left, right and centre. They do tend to score goals, scoring at least 1 goal in their past 16 matches. Working fair odds out on basis of this season results I get the following odds: Home Win = 1.69 Draw = 4.4 Away Win = 5.5 Best odds available at posting are 1.6 (3/5) at 188BET. Might not be any value in the bet but to me this looks like a banker! GL
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Re: Fleet's English Football Ratings
If your letting a team creep in, I suggest Cowdenbeath, they've won 80% of home games this season and kept 60% of their home games a clean sheet! I estimate odds at 1.31 for this match but best odds are 4/9 outwith your choices... Stevenage will drop as Saturday comes but out of three Alloa, Cowdenbeath and Stevenage i'd take Cowdenbeath!!!To be honest, either Stevenage need to shorten below evens, or I have to swallow my pride & allow a Scottish team in. Wrexham, Luton & Grimsby are all too short. I'll wait until tomorrow for the selections. -
Re: Fleet's English Football Ratings looking forward to them Fleet... I am expecting Charlton, Torquay and Grimsby.... :drums
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Re: England > Midweek > L1 & L2 > 24 Jan
1-0 TORQUAY! Bet Won!!!! Tipping them again this weekend, reasoning, blah blah to follow.....Fixture: Torquay Utd v Dagenham & Redbridge Selection: Torquay Strength: 7/10 Date: 24/01/2012 Bookmaker/Price: Various 4/6 Reasoning: Torquay lost 2 games all season at home, averaging 1.92 games per game (3rd highest in league). Won 46% of games at home. Current Form: W-D-L, (Goals F-A) Full: 4-1-1, (8-6) Home: 5-1-0, (11-1) Away: 4-1-1, (10-6) Torquay are starting to hit a bit of form after a relatively poor first half of the season. Stats show they struggle against teams in the top half of the table but an impressive record against mid table opposition and below. Currently 5-1-0 at home only conceding a single goal in their past 6 home games. Dagenham are very poor away from home scoring on average 0.75 goals per game. They concede 1.83 goals per game away from home and in their last 6 away matches they have leaked in 14 goals! Current Form: W-D-L, (Goals F-A) Full: 2-2-2, (8-8) Home: 2-0-4, (8-9) Away: 0-2-4, (4-14) 2 wins in their last 10 games, yet to win a game this year! Haven’t won an away game in their last 10 away fixtures! Lose 67% of their away games and that stat looks to increase as Torquay looks to push on for a playoff place! Working fair odds out on basis of this season results I get the following odds: Home Win = 1.78 Draw = 3.57 Away Win = 6.25 Best odds available at posting are 1.66 at Skybet, Stan James and Betfred. These have shortened as last night (Sunday) I placed the bet at 1.73. GL -
Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS
I agree with this everything about this points to a 2-1 or 3-1 to Southampton!!! :cheersLets go again shall we, one more for tonight :hope Top picks for 2-3 goalsNo. Pair Probability odds Date 1 Southampton - Leicester 46.82% 1.95 23/01 -
Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25 Fixture: Forest Green Rovers v Wrexham Selection: Wrexham Strength: 7/10 Date: 24/01/2012 Bookmaker/Price: Coral/William Hill Evens (2.0) Reasoning: Wrexham lost 1 game all season away from home, averaging 1.77 games per game (2nd highest in league). Won 69% of games at away from home, conceding 0.62 goals per game away from home. Over half their away games have been clean sheets (54%) Current Form: W-D-L, (Goals F-A) Full: 6-0-0, (16-3) Home: 6-0-0, (16-3) Away: 4-2-0, (7-1) Wrexham and Fleetwood running away with this division and stats prove this. Wrexham have won their last 7 league games and are unbeaten in their last 16. Slightly concerning that they have only scored 7 goals in the last 6 away matches but scoring 16 in their last 6 games is reassuring reading. Forest Green Rovers have the 16th worst home record in the division and stats show from the first of the season they prefer to travel! 8th best away record in the league to date. They have only managed to keep 7% of their home games a clean sheet. Yet to win a game since December the 6th (06.12.2011) Current Form: W-D-L, (Goals F-A) Full: 1-2-3, (4-6) Home: 3-2-1, (11-7) Away: 2-2-2, (8-4) Only scored 1 goal in their last 5 games! Lost more games than won at home this season and yet to beat a top 7 side but not been beaten by a top 7 side. Due to current form and Wrexham’s dominance in this league, I cannot see anything else than a Wrexham away win or hard earned draw. Lack of clean sheets and failing to score in last 5 games points to a Wrexham win. Working fair odds out on basis of this season results I get the following odds: Home Win = 1.58 Draw = 3.37 Away Win = 5.4 Best odds available at posting are 2.0 (evens) at Coral or William Hill So there is value in this bet and should be snapped up at evens if available, in my opinion! GL
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Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25
Wrong thread, no reasoning, useless information...Southampton - Leicester City - x1 -
Re: England > Midweek > L1 & L2 > 24 Jan Fixture: Torquay Utd v Dagenham & Redbridge Selection: Torquay Strength: 7/10 Date: 24/01/2012 Bookmaker/Price: Various 4/6 Reasoning: Torquay lost 2 games all season at home, averaging 1.92 games per game (3rd highest in league). Won 46% of games at home. Current Form: W-D-L, (Goals F-A) Full: 4-1-1, (8-6) Home: 5-1-0, (11-1) Away: 4-1-1, (10-6) Torquay are starting to hit a bit of form after a relatively poor first half of the season. Stats show they struggle against teams in the top half of the table but an impressive record against mid table opposition and below. Currently 5-1-0 at home only conceding a single goal in their past 6 home games. Dagenham are very poor away from home scoring on average 0.75 goals per game. They concede 1.83 goals per game away from home and in their last 6 away matches they have leaked in 14 goals! Current Form: W-D-L, (Goals F-A) Full: 2-2-2, (8-8) Home: 2-0-4, (8-9) Away: 0-2-4, (4-14) 2 wins in their last 10 games, yet to win a game this year! Haven’t won an away game in their last 10 away fixtures! Lose 67% of their away games and that stat looks to increase as Torquay looks to push on for a playoff place! Working fair odds out on basis of this season results I get the following odds: Home Win = 1.78 Draw = 3.57 Away Win = 6.25 Best odds available at posting are 1.66 at Skybet, Stan James and Betfred. These have shortened as last night (Sunday) I placed the bet at 1.73. GL
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Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25 Initial thoughts were Fleetwood and Luton but further inspection reveals no value in either bet in my opinion... Detailed reasoning to follow tomorrow... if i can get +4.0 on the draw for Luton v Mansfield i may be persuaded to enter the market. Torquay in L2 are appealing if odds drift above 1.8... on a side not well done to my mate, after a bad day he sticks 1.25 on a 10 fold and wins £92.00!
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Re: Sat 21st Jan Npower Football League Two Well done MPLouis! Swindon my only winner this weekend :( Roll on another week!
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Re: Sat 21st Jan Npower Football League Two
Concur with this and glad I took this early at 4/7, odds shortening best price still 2/5! Thanks for the team news update! Out of interest what's the best sites for reliable injuries for all teams...?Swindon-Macclesfield AH-1,25 @1,92 5/10 12bet Swindon has the best squad in the divison by far. They signed Benson and now Rooney to improve their offense. Rooney should be on the bench. Swindon has a solid defense, they played 8 times to nil in 11 home matches. They only miss in defender McCormack. Macclesfield on a poor run lately, just 1-3-6 in the last 10 matches while they scored just 5 goals. Away from home they are just 3-0-8 with 8:18 goals. Draper (4 goals) and Chalmers (1 goal) are definetely ruled out. Tomlinson, Wedgbury and Donnelly are rated as doubtful. Swindon is the better side, my call 2:0 GL -
Anyone else not like betting the premier league, don't know what it is? But I always try to avoid it haha
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Re: Fleet's European Football Ratings Good stuff fleet!!! Stop loathing the Scottish football, although I am a hypocrit! Scottish Newcastle fan haha Ross County and Cowdenbeath My two picks this week. Might have to include Scotland in the euro forum come 2014 haha! Plus I'll need to bet in the euro eek!
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Re: Saturday 21st/Monday 23rd Jan Npower Football League Championship
I agree and I have doubled this up with Blackburn DNB for a nice 9-1 double!!!Peterborough vs Brighton I will not start to add here names of missing players ad stuff like that because as I previously mentioned that can cause a team to motivate well and get a bigger ambition. Anyway, Brighton is not looking at all fully effective for this match, but have been other aspects that made me took this bet, before the team news have to be revealed. 1. As a viewer of the Wrecsam vs Brighton cup game I would say that Wrecsam should have been the one to get the qualification. despite having Mackail Smith upfront, Sparrow, Buckley, Navarro, Calderon and Hoskins all in the line up, the Seasgulls have been embarrassing againsta a team that plays 3 levels behind and some how out played them. Only the luck made that in the first 90 minutes to have a 1-1 on the score sheet. 2. Brighton haven't been good travellers this season with major points taken from their home ground where they also won against The Saints. 3. Peterborough is win less in last 4 matches, but those 4 games have been really tough: Boro, Birmingham, Sunderland, Hull City. They are a strong side home and they should get the points here being 9 points only, above the relegation area. 4. "Five Brighton and Hove Albion footballers and an AFC Bournemouth player have been arrested on suspicion of sexually assaulting a woman. Sussex Police said an 18-year-old man, a 19-year-old, two men aged 20 and one aged 24, all from Brighton, and a 20-year-old from Dorset were arrested. The Brighton and Hove Albion players were arrested the day after the Championship club, managed by Gus Poyet, beat non-league Wrexham in an FA Cup third round replay (means Thursday morning). Former Seagulls player Steve Cook, who was signed by Bournemouth for an undisclosed fee at the beginning of January, was the sixth man arrested, the BBC understands. The identities of the five other players have not been revealed. They have been released on bail until 21 March, pending further inquiries." A spokesman for Brighton said: "Brighton and Hove Albion Football Club can confirm that five men associated with the club are assisting police into the investigation of an alleged offence in July last year. "The club will make no further comment at this stage." This one will not lead to a great athmosphere ahead of this match, does it? I think Peterborough should take all the points! home -0.5 AH @ 2.04 with Ladbrokers -
Re: Premier League Hitmen Coupon I might be wrong here... but online prices and highstreet prices not the same, excluding the pre printed quickslips. selection sheets. Go into bookies go up to the bookie and ask for latest odds on x,y,z.... write the bet on the slip and the odds taken...
Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt...
in Betting Systems & Strategy
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Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt...
Surprised you've not seen Fleet's thread before, been here a while and i use it as a great cross check for my shortlists... Fleet I have a formula set up and going to apply it for next weekend, using the football-data website to get results. One thing that is a pain, i have to manually calculate the final match rating as i can't seem to find something to populate teams next fixture, i get all the way to calculating each teams individual rating.