Maudit
-
Posts
39 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by Maudit
-
-
Re: Greek 1st league 2011-2012 A quick update with the three matches played today:
Overall, a good start, with a profit of +2.79. Some remarks about the games: In the match of Xanthi, the visitors were much stronger that I had expected, despite their numerous absences. Still, Xanthi scored in the first half; and pretty much controlled the game until its end. Obviously, it was not a very exciting affair. Especially, the home team should have tried to achieve a clear score against an opponent facing so many problems. Unless Panionios is not as weak as I think. The match of Levadiakos was a very strange one. Ergotelis finished the first half leading 1-0, via a "funny" own goal, despite Levadiakos playing better. Throughout the match, there was a very strong wind. At the 55th minute, the lights went off and the match was interrupted for over half hour. After the game restarted, Levadiakos was not able to to threaten the opponents; on the contrary, Ergotelis might have scored a second goal. Finally, Panathinaikos entered the game energetically, as it was expected; and it scored a rather early goal. Thereafter, chances were missed by both sides; it was indeed surprising that no more goals were scored in the first half. The same picture describes the second half (in particular, Asteras gave a lot of trouble to the Panathinaikos defense); until Panathinaikos scored a second goal, after a corner kick. A third goal followed; and finally, Asteras scored a much deserved consolation goal. Unless Panathinaikos improves its defense, no match is likely to be easy. Looking forward to tomorrow's games! :hope- Xanthi v Panionios: Xanthi @ 1.80 w Interwetten (7/10) 1-0, +5.60 :) - Levadiakos v Ergotelis: Levadiakos -0.25 AH @ 1.92 w Landbrokes (5/10) 0-1, -5.00 :sad - Panathinaikos v Asteras Tripolis: Panathinaikos HT/FT @ 1.73 w Paddypower (3/10) 3-1 (1-0 HT), +2.19 :) -
Re: Greek 1st league 2011-2012 Greek "Super" League bets for this weekend: - Xanthi v Panionios: Xanthi @ 1.80 w Interwetten (7/10) Panionios has been releasing players in an effort to deal with its financial problems, so, it has become very good fade material. This weekend, it will travel to Xanthi with many (and very important) absences; on the other hand, Xanthi has no problems. Add the fact that Panionios' good results away from home have been against teams in the lower half (or third) of the standings. Perhaps the bet of the weekend in Greece - I only fear that it has become a public bet. - Levadiakos v Ergotelis: Levadiakos -0.25 AH @ 1.92 w Landbrokes (5/10) Levadiakos has surprised positively, fighting in all matches it has played so far other than that against Olympiakos, last Wednesday, in which quite wisely the coach rotated the squad to rest some players. This match is like a 6-pointer, one of the "should-win" matches in Levadiakos' calculations to avoid relegation. With a complete team, they expect to fight hard in a very tight match up. Ergotelis, with important absent players (Budimir, Koutsianikoulis, Wisio, Oliseh), is very weak away from home. (For this match, one may want also to bet on under 2 goals @ 2.00 w 188Bet; or on precise scores 1-0, 2-0, 0-0, 1-1 and 0-1. Levadiakos is not exactly a team that will push to extend a lead.) - Panathinaikos v Asteras Tripolis: Panathinaikos HT/FT @ 1.73 w Paddypower (3/10) Considerable difference in quality between the two teams, Panathinaikos (which has no significant absences) should win this game. (Asteras will be missing Perrone, Bartollini and Rogerio, all regulars.) Still, I do not like the -1.75 AH at ca 2.05, so, I will risk on the HT/FT bet. The Panathinaikos' coaching team has expressed its concern about starting slowly in the last couple of matches; so, it is quite likely that the players will try to start with more energy and score a goal early. - Doxa Dramas v PAOK: PAOK only to score @ 1.70 w William Hill (3/10) I have commented on Doxa in the past, on how below par the team is. Last week, with a new coach, they appeared to be improved; they even scored their first goal in the league, albeit from a direct free kick. On Sunday, they face PAOK, in Salonika (where PAOK is based) and not in Drama, without any real home advantage. Obviously, PAOK is the big favorite, despite the fatigue (too many matches in the last three months); but I would not suggest a -1.25 AH. Even though PAOK is not as tight in the back as it used to be with its past coaches, Doxa has only one goal in 6 games, including games against much weaker teams. - Olympiakos v PAS Giannina: Olympiakos -1.75 AH @ 1.81 w Pinnacle (5/10) Olympiakos can finally concentrate on the Greek league, now that its CL matches are over. In addition, the team has had a rest, as the last two matches (against Kerkyra and Levadiakos) were really a walk in the park, with the action being over by half time. Some players are expected to return. Giannina, on the other hand, have been playing bad; last match, their new coach stated that he would have liked to change 8 players after 30 minutes. The coach change is likely to produce a shake-up; but it will take some time before it has positive effects. Overall, in the last match at home before the christmas break, I expect an enthusiastic performance from the Greek champions. - Atromitos Athens v AEK: Atromitos +0.25 AH @ 1.81 w Pinnacle (5/10) AEK has really surprised me. Despite all problems (financial problems, many injured players), they have been performing well, with the youngsters delivering, and scoring one win after another. Still, I am not that much impressed, as their opponents were either too weak (Giannina, Kerkyra) or unmotivated (Sturm, for the EL). Atromitos is definitely better than the recent Greek opponents of AEK. In addition, it faces no serious problems (only Sfakianakis is reported doubtful); and it is quite strong at home, with a 4-2-0 record (albeit against weak teams, in tightly contested matches). Finally, there may be some extra motivation for the home team, because of the cup final last season and Donis' earlier work as AEK coach. Overall, I think that the game is a 50-50% affair. So, at these odds, I will make a call for Atromitos. For this match, I also like another bet: - Atromitos Athens v AEK: Both to score @ 2.05 w William Hill (3/10) Most AEK matches have involved quite a few goals, unlike those of Atromitos. Given the defensive weaknesses of AEK (and the quality of some Atromitos attackers), I expect the home team to score at least once. In addition, Atromitos has conceded against weaker teams, like Levadiakos and Panionios. So, at these odds, this bet looks good - and in some ways, it complements nicely the main bet on this match. - Aris v Panaitolikos: No Bet Under its new coach, Aris has had both impressive (against OFI and PAO) and disappointing performances (against Panionios and Asteras). Indeed, the guy has shaken the squad, so, one does not know what to expect this Sunday. I would definitely not back Aris at such low odds; and Panaitolikos is not to be trusted either, especially away. - OFI v Kerkyra: OFI @ 1.84 w Pinnacle (4/10) AND under 0.5 @ 9.00 w Unibet (0.5/10) Of course, OFI is the favorite against one of the weakest teams in the Greek top league, in a "shoild win" match for the team from Crete. However, OFI has been on a downtrend lately; indeed, its performances against Doxa and Panaitolikos were mediocre, producing rather little in the offense. So, I am somewhat worried about OFI failing to score against a team that tends to play very defensively away (and has achieved 0-0 results against difficult opponents). Eventually, I take the HW bet at low odds along with a side bet that will return the money in case Kerkyra holds out. Notice that one player will be missing for each team, Tavlaridis for OFI and Kontodimos for Kerkyra. (Let me add that one may consider bets like OFI only to score (2.50 at William Hill), OFI to keep a clean sheet (1.75 at William Hill), under 2.25 (at 1.80, verious books). The idea is clear, Kerkyra doesn't score much, OFI doesn't concede easily at home.) Finally, a "sucker" parlay: - Panathinaikos x PAOK x Olympiakos, @ 1.97 w William Hill (3/10) As explained above, it will be a very big surprise if any of these teams fails to win. Hopefully, we will make money. GL! :hope
-
Re: Greek 1st league 2011-2012
A profitable day: :cheers Panionios v Panathinaikos: 1-2 FT Kerkyra v Olympiakos: 0-4 FT Ergotelis v Doxa Dramas: 2-1 FT A summary of the action: Panathinaikos did not play so well in the 1st half, so, Panionios' lead was not a surprise. Things changed completely in the 2nd half, with Panathinaikos scoring two goals and missing chances for a third one. Overall, not as easy as I thought. As the score line suggests, Olympiakos faced no problem. Unlike what I had expected, Kerkyra was too light, not as committed to defense as (Greek) teams at this level are typically. At the moment, Kerkyra is considered the second worst team in the Greek top league. Ergotelis started with a lot of energy, scoring an early goal and missing chances for a second one. Thereafter, they were content to control the game, until Doxa scored from a direct foul kick. In the 2nd half, Ergotelis needed to sweat a bit; but it got the three points. Overall, Doxa appeared better than in previous matches; but Ergotelis won more easily than the scoreline suggests. (I am only unhappy for the goal of Doxa. But "win to nil" bets always run the danger of such goals, against the run of the play.) In the other two games: Asteras won 1-0 against Aris, quite easily. It was a good idea to avoid this game; indeed, Aris remains quite unreliable. Panaitolikos won 1-0 against OFI, with the visitors missing good chances to tie the match. Looking forward to the next week. Still waiting for the odds, I hope that there will be quite a few good bets. :okTo conclude, at the moment, I would bet: Panathinaikos, at 1.65 (various books), 6/10 Parlay: Olympiakos x Ergotelis, at ca. 1.90 (various books), 4/10. (As an alternative, obviously, one can combine all these suggestions in one parlay; or just any subset of them.) -
Re: Greek 1st league 2011-2012 A quick update: Although the odds for Panathinaikos have decreased to ca. 1.65, there is still some value in them. This is not so much because of the quality of Panathinaikos, which, in my opinion, has been somewhat exaggerated by the Greek press; but rather because of the problems of Panionios, which is in the process of "downsizing", releasing expensive players (Estoyanoff, possibly Kumordji; others to follow) and its coach (Lemonis). Plus, Panionios is going to miss some important players (Riera, Omo, Jonnson). For Olympiakos, at ca. 1.40, one might think that the value is in the side of Kerkyra, because of Olympiakos' absences (primarily in the midfield) and fatigue (the CL match against Arsenal being the last of a series of consecutive games). However, Kerkyra (1-1-3, 6-11, home record) is not solid enough to take points from the championship favorite. Plus, Olympiakos has already lost a match to a low tier team (Asteras Tripolis); repetition is quite unlikely. Ergotelis, now at a. 1.40, has become somewhat tricky, as Doxa has changed its coach. The new person in charge (Katsiavakis) is more experienced than its predecessor. Even though the team material remains too poor and the fatigue from the consecutive matches accumulates, I expect some improvement. (Well, to be fair, the team cannot get worse.) But I will be very much surprised if the new coach produces results rather away. For Asteras Tripolis v Aris, I cannot say much. Aris has been quite unpredictable, since it changed its coach: a difficult victory against OFI, succeeded by a bad defeat from Panionios, before an impressive victory against Panathinaikos. The team is still in the process of being redesigned, so, I would think of this match as no bet. Finally, I was thinking about Panaitolikos +0 AH, earlier this week, when the odds were ca. 1.75. This was because OFI did not really impress against Doxa midweek. However, Panaitolikos is coming from three defeats in a row (well, all of them from teams expected to finish higher), so, I am not sure what to expect. Again, no bet, especially at the current odds. To conclude, at the moment, I would bet: Panathinaikos, at 1.65 (various books), 6/10 Parlay: Olympiakos x Ergotelis, at ca. 1.90 (various books), 4/10. (As an alternative, obviously, one can combine all these suggestions in one parlay; or just any subset of them.) Let me add that, for Olympiakos and Ergotelis, I would avoid any handicap beyond -1, as Oly is quite tired from the heavy schedule while Ergotelis is not one of the teams accustomed to pushing for a convincing victory. Finally, Ergotelis to win to nil, at 1.80 at the moment, suggested by martin239, cannot be bad. Not only has Doxa failed to score a goal so far in the championship; but even the number of chances it has missed remains very low. And a new coach is likely to strengthen the defense first, before he attempts to improve the offense. Ciao, M. :hope PS: If you bet "Ergotelis to win to nil" at WH, I think that it is better to dutch the scores 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 (at 5.50, 5.50, 8.00), with a small cover (to return the money) for 4-0 (at 15.00); the effective odds are over 1.90.
-
Re: England > Weekend > FA Trophy 1st Round Dec 10-11 I did a little search on the Grimsby v Darlington match, so, an update: - There is no info indicating that a team may not take the match seriously. - Darlington's squad is depleted, with players expected to return being still in doubt. According to a tweet, today, only 12 players practiced; and no right back seems to be available. So, in his respect, things are as expected, given what we knew from the match against Kettering. - Grimsby has problems as well, with Makofo (att, 18/4) and Green (def, 6/1) being definitely out and Coulson (att, 22/4) and Disley (mid, 23/1) being doubtful. - Both teams come from a heavy schedule, this being their 6th (Darlo) or 7th (Gr) match since Nov 19th. Afterwards, the Darlo players can rest until next weekend; the Grimsby players will play again on Tuesday. - H2h comparison, Darlington won 1-2 last August and 0-1 last March. Grimsby won 0-1 in August 2010. To conclude, everything indicates that this will be a close and rather tricky match, as it is usual between the two teams. Although I believe that Grimsby has the advantage, given the squad problems of its opponents (their effect could be seen in Darlo's result against Kettering), I am somewhat hesitant to call for Grimsby to win outright. Any thoughts from the more experienced / knowledgeable members will be appreciated. Btw, my two main sources of info: http://www.darlofc.co.uk/news.php?NewsID=728 http://www.thefishy.co.uk/cgi-bin/forum/Blah.pl?m-1323401412/
-
Re: England > Weekend > FA Trophy 1st Round Dec 10-11 I am thinking of taking Grimsby, against Darlington, at 2.20 (widely available). Judging from the discussion about the match Kettering V Darlington (as well as from the result), Darlington should not be in very good shape. On the other hand, Grimsby appears quite solid. Any update on Darlington's absences / plans for the FA Trophy match? Thanks! M. :)
-
Re: Greek 1st league 2011-2012
0-1 FT :ok OFI scored a goal in the 1st half, following an error by the Doxa goalkeeper. Thereafter, it controlled the game, securing the victory rather easily. Obviously, it was not the most exciting match to watch... Some early thoughts for next weekend: I like Panathinaikos, at 1.75 (BWIN), against Panionios, a team that is getting closer and closer to bankruptcy and that will be missing one of its most important players (Riera). I also like Erotelis -1.25 AH (at 1.90, Pinnacle), against Doxa Dramas; and Olympiakos -1.25 AH (at 2.02, 188Bet), against Kerkyra. But these choices are somewhat risky, because of the handicap, which is tricky, given that the opposing teams will adopt very defensive tactics throughout the match. Some of the other matches are also interesting; but I need to think more about them. I will try to write tomorrow or on Friday. :)Doxa Dramas - OFI: AW @ 1.85 (Interwetten) 6/10. -
Re: Greek 1st league 2011-2012 A "somewhat early" pick on the Greek 1st division match scheduled for Wednesday, 07/12/2011: Doxa Dramas - OFI: AW @ 1.85 (Interwetten) 6/10. I will continue fading Doxa Dramas, a team that does not have the quality to be in the Greek 1st division, as explained in an earlier post. The relevant issues: - Doxa is indeed very weak, having not been reinforced since it was decided (early this fall, by the court) that it would play in the 1st division. Indeed, at the moment, it would be a good 2nd division team. - The Doxa players must also be suffering from fatigue, this being their 4th match in 15 days, a schedule to which they are not so accustomed. Add the strange end of the last season (the 2nd division playoffs took place late in July), which made a proper summer training impossible. - No home advantage for Doxa, as they play in Thessaloniki, rather than in Drama, in a big stadium (capacity of ca 30k spectators) that will be empty. - OFI made it to the 1st division last summer, via the playoff matches. Unlike Doxa, it strengthened its squad; and it is now at the 7th place, trailing teams that have played 1 or 2 more matches. This is a match that they must win, to achieve their season aims (staying away from the relegation zone, finishing high in the middle of the table). - Last year, for the 2nd division, OFI won 10 points in 4 matches with Doxa (reg season and playoffs). In the end, I expect Doxa to play ultra-defensively, as they have been doing so far (for a score of 0-9 in 4 games). But OFI appears to have enough firepower (15 goals in 10 games, 7 goals in 5 away games) to win the match. At the initial odds, of over 1.90, I would have suggested a high stakes bet. However, the odds dropped quite quickly, so, only a bet at normal stakes. GL! ;)
-
Re: UEFA Europa League > Wednesday 30th November I can imagine that Standard Liege will be more eager to play for the victory, since their last match, against FC Kopenhagen away, may turn out not to be an easy one. At least, it is likely that FCK will be playing to eliminate Liege... On the other hand, H96 will have a very easy match at home, against a team that has been already eliminated. I will not be surprised if Slomka rotates his squad. My only concern is the match of Standard Liege against Gent, next Sunday. It will be four days away, quite a bit of time; but can the Standard coach decide not to tire some of his players? Any info on absences (or rotation plans) will be appreciated. Ciao, M. :)
-
Re: Greek 1st league 2011-2012
Well, the gap between the two teams is enormous, more than a division. To explain: - For Olympiakos, anything other than winning the championship will be a failure. - Doxa Dramas made it to the 1st division late last summer / early last fall, following a number of court decisions. Given the time of the confirmation, its owners did not bother much to strengthen the team. Greek journalists have commented that Doxa is simply aiming at the tv contract compensation predicted for playing in the 1st division. Personally, I took the -1.75 AHC, when it was available at 1.84. However, one must keep in mind that: - Drama will play ultra-defensively, even if they are a goal down. - Olympiakos' players are somewhat tired from the consecutive matches. - Olympiakos' coach may rotate the squad a bit. In the plus side, Olympiakos suffered a bad defeat last Sunday, so, the players must do something to make the fans forget about it. I hope this is helpful. Ciao, M. ;)Looking to handicap olimpiakos in some way. Don't know much about Doxa Dramas except they are last. How big is the gap between the two teams? -
Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 18-21 November
Actually, St Pauli is missing one or two forwards: surely Ebbers (6 games, 5 goals) and possibly Kruse (14,8), who had suffered a flu. In addition, some players are missing in defense. Perhaps a better option is under 2.5 goals, since Hansa Rostock approaches its matches very cautiously. M. Quick update: Actually, Kicker is listing Kruse in the starting line up.Hansa Rostock v St Pauli St Pauli look excellent value @ 2.5 -
Re: Poland Ekstraklasa 2011/12
0-2 FT, pick won! :DJagiellonia - Slask Wroclaw: Slask (+0 AH) @ 1.81, Pinnacle, 7/10 -
Re: Greek 1st league 2011-2012 Hey! I would hesitate to bet on Olympiakos, despite the dropping odds. It has just been confirmed that Ibagaza will not play, so most of the creativity in Olympiakos' midfield is lost. Yeste, who may try to replace him, has not helped the team so far. It is only Panathinaikos' defense (very unreliable) and Olympiakos' offense (quite a bit of talent) that may still justofy such a bet. Plus, the need for Olympiakos to deliver a performance worth of a championship favorite, in front of its own fans. Ciao, M. ;)
-
Re: Poland Ekstraklasa 2011/12
A quick correction: Contrary to the above claim, the coach who moved to Greece a couple of weeks ago left Jagiellonia (for Lodz) last summer. I am sorry for this error. But the critical information is the story of JB's absences, which is valid. M.In addition, Jagiellonia changed its coach a couple of weeks ago (its previous coach wanted to move to Aris Salonica). So, the team is likely to be making an adjustment to new instructions. -
Re: Poland Ekstraklasa 2011/12 I haven't posted much, but this time I may have something useful to contribute: Polish Ekstraklasa, 18-11-2011, 20:30 cet Jagiellonia - Slask Wroclaw: Slask (+0 AH) @ 1.81, Pinnacle, 7/10 According to the news on the site of Jagiellonia, a number of starting players have fallen victims to a virus, so, they missed training and they are doubtful for the match (please use google translator): http://www.jagiellonia.pl/aktualnosci.php?a=10003 In addition, Jagiellonia changed its coach a couple of weeks ago (its previous coach wanted to move to Aris Salonica). So, the team is likely to be making an adjustment to new instructions. There are two reasons I prefer the +0 AH, the 5-2-0 home record of Jagiellonia and the projected very low temperatures. The odds are dropping, but there may still be some value. GL :hope
-
Re: Turkey Super Lig 2011/2012 Odds for Bursa have increased to over 1.85. :eek Anybody knows the reason? M.
-
Re: Scotland: League Cup Oct 25-26
Actually, W Hill is offering 1.91 at the moment. It doesn't look bad... M.Both teams to score looks quite a solid bet in Wednesdays game at Easter Road. [...] Best price is 1.75. -
Re: Turkey Super Lig 2011/2012 Hi Yaman! Very nice to see you back! I wish you have a profitable season! Looking forward to your recommendations! :) Ciao, M.
-
Re: Is the market always right?
Mulkis, thanks for the suggestion! I kind of knew the site, but I guess that I must pay more attention to their "dropping odds" list. In any case, at the moment, I have two problems with such lists: a. Many of the reported odds movements concern bets and odds that I would hesitate to consider (and to apply the EMH); for example, a 15% drop, from 9.65 to 8.17, for the bet "Russia - Andorra: under 1.5 goals". Some "cleaning" is needed for the information to be useful. b. Much of the information comes too late, when the highest odds available have also dropped too much. I guess, I must put some effort to figure out some efficient way of identifying early which dropping odds are useful. ------------------------------ Your backtest on "moving odds" confirmed the EMH? Does this mean that "dropping odds" send a significant signal to make a bet? This can be quite automatic... ------------------------------ Btw, an interesting site (to which I must pay more attention myself) is http://www.soccer-rating.com/strange_odds.php The site uses past odds to rank teams, assuming (according to the EMH) that these odds give a proper indication of the teams' actual strength (or strength as perceived by the betting public - this is a rather philosophical point). And it identifies odds that deviate from the ones implied by the ranking. Especially, if higher-than-expected odds (ie, for undervalued teams) start dropping, then the recommendation is clear. ------------------------------- Thanks for reading! M.Moudit' date=' please check it out: www.oddsportal.com BTW I've made some quite serious backtest on "moving odds". In fact it confirmed EMH. -
Re: Is the market always right? Hi! Very nice topic, one in which I am highly interested (both as a bettor and as someone with an economics background)). I am only a recreational bettor, with little experience, waging small amounts for "fun" (and earning my living from a "mainstream" job). As I have relatively little time to devote to following sports and finding value bets, I have eventually developed a "strategy" along the lines suggested by Bull_B: a. I find some "interesting" matches, usually from ("trusted") tipsters' suggestions, in this or another betting forum. b. I quickly check the bookmakers' odds at some website. c. If one of the bookmakers I use offers a suggested bet at odds substantially (whatever this means)higher than the market average, then I place a flat stake (flat stakes allow for simplicity); otherwise, I skip the match. Obviously, the strategy asks, first, to identify a few trustworthy tipsters. But more to the topic of this thread, it relies on the comparison between the offered odds and the average odds in the market, with the latter assumed to be representing the current state of knowledge about a betting event, according to the EMH. Overall, one can say that I use the EMH to check back on various betting suggestions. Practically, I am quite happy with step © of this strategy, since it has allowed me to save considerable time (relative to the past, when I had to search for more and more information, before deciding to follow a tip) and since it has been returning profits. The downside, it has made betting a very dull affair. A few remarks (and questions): 1. I do not limit myself to Betfair for a proxy to the true betting odds. The bookmakers' odds also depend on (and thus, reflect) the bettors' activity, so, they must also be taken into account. Ideally, one would need a weighted average; but it is nor possible to identify correct weights, so, a flat average looks second best. No? :unsure 2. In principle, the EMH would apply even in a market with few ("rational", in an economics jargon sense) bettors. But I would hesitate to apply the above strategy to small markets, in which the odds can move very fast (and in a highly correlated manner across bookmakers), following relatively small bets. For obscure leagues, step (a) becomes more important than ©. Indeed, there are markets in which even 100€ can move a line significantly. 3. Similarly, the EMH has made me avoid highly competitive betting markets, such as the English PL or the German 1.BL , on the match day. Accordingly, in such markets, any value will quickly disappear. (The American prof leagues are probably the worst in this respect.) 4. Combining 2 and 3, it looks like there are very few markets left. Indeed, the EMH, in full force, would make speculative betting (as opposed to betting for risk hedging purposes) completely pointless. Well, I wouldn't like to be so doctrinaire (and consequently, give up on betting), I only use the EMH, first, to limit my ambition and, second, to check back on betting tips. After all, as Mulkis correctly said, the EMH is very much under scrutiny these days. 5. A puzzle I have concerns the strong movement of the odds during (the morning of the) match day, in many important leagues, despite the absence of any significant new information (such as the injury of a key player). Eventually, I was told that it has to do with the timing of the money entering the betting market: big bettors (with better-quality information, I suppose) need to wait until the match day, when the betting limits are raised. Still, how can betting value survive so late? (Even the prof tipsters, who sell the information, can try to extract is valuet...) :unsure 6. Building on 5, another strategy would be to identify significant trends (ie, odds movements) early on the match day; and to jump quickly on them). Well, this requires quite a bit of attention (and early morning working habits), I have not done it... 7. It would be interesting to make a program that quickly identifies extreme odds (in terms of their difference from the market average) and tries to exploit them. Do you know of any such effort? Eventually, it would be funny to see how such programs can upset a market... :p (I am more serious about it than my mood suggests.) There are more things to say (especially, to raise some questions relating to Behavioral Finance), but this message is getting too long. Looking forward to further input to this discussion. Ciao, M. ;) PS: No "in play" betting experience for me, no much time for it...
-
Re: Turkey Super Lig 2010/2011 Very nice work Yaman! :ok Thank you for sharing your insights with us, it has been really great to read your posts! :clap Ciao, M.
-
Re: Turkey Super Lig 2010/2011
Hey, Yaman, If you didn't lose a pick once in a while, then you would be called the "Unreal Punter" or the "Banned Punter", not the "Lion Punter" ... ;) Do not worry, such things happen, just keep all the great job you have been doing. Ciao, M PS: And now a comment regarding your choice of bets: I really think that your "both teams to score" bet, at 1.53, 9/10, was not a good one. According to your posts, you had already an "over 2.5 goals" bet, at 1.75, 8/10, and you wanted a side bet "to feel safe", as you wrote. In my opinion, the better way to place such a side bet would have been with "correct score: 1-1", at whatever odds (I guess something around or slightly better than 6.50), 1/10. Compare your combination of bets with my combination of bets. Your combination performs better, if both your bets win; my combination performs better in all other cases. So, if the aim is "to feel safe" (that is, your side bet aims at covering, in case the main bet fails), then my combination is the right one. As a general principle, side bets aiming at covering should ideally satisfy the following two properties: a. They should be economical. b. They should not contradict the main bet. When either (a) or (b) has to be violated, then it is up to the player to find the right combination. I would have liked (b) and your combination of bets, if the "both teams to score bet" had come at better odds - but at 1.53, (a) was violated too much. Sorry for all this theorizing (and smart ass kind of talking)... Please do not misunderstand my attitude, I only hope that your usually great readings of the matches can lead to even higher profits. ;) (Very busy lately, I will send you a PM or skype message soon.)The thing is normally I feel responsible for any lost pick but for this one I cant find any words to explain... -
Re: Turkey Super Lig 2010/2011 Well, The final score was 2-2; and because of the increase in the odds, I took part of the HW tip with a generous dnb option, so, I am quite happy about it. As for the increase in the odds for Gaziantepspor, it was not the bookies that got it wrong, but the public that rushed to bet on Besiktas (apparently thinking that this is their priority competition at the moment...). Again, thanks for your suggestion, it was spot-on! :) Ciao, M.
-
Re: Turkey Super Lig 2010/2011 Hey, Yaman, Big increase in the odds for Gaziantepspor, now, HW is available at over 3.00. Any reason, such as announced line ups with too much rotation? If not, then your proposed bets look even more attractive. If yes, then, I will tail only the over 2.5 goals bet. Thanks, M.
Greece > Super League > 2011/12
in Other European Leagues Football Predictions
Posted
Re: Greek 1st league 2011-2012
A very good day, with a profit of 8.085 units, for a total weekend profit of 10.875 units. :drums :cheers Quick comments about the games: PAOK scored two goals in the first half; and thereafter controlled the game easily, without facing any danger. Doxa remains very weak, it will surely relegate. A rather sad story. Olympiakos played very well in the first half, mcreating many opportunities and scoring two goals. In the second half, the team was quite mediocre, sitting back and trying to counter-attack. Nothing really happened, the first half score did not change. Allow me to say, without any intention to provoke, that AEK finally showed its lack of quality; indeed, heroics cannot work in the long run. In today's match, Atromitos was never worse; and its victory is not be a surprise. In the first half, there was nothing worth remembering. In the second half, Atromitos was denied a penalty (the referee changed his decision after first calling it); but few minutes later scored (with the referee not calling a handball by an Atromitos player). Following the goal, the match became interesting, with AEK missing a couple of chances. In the end, a fair result. Finally, in the OFI match, one might say that Kerkyra was the better team in the first half. But OFI dominated the second half pressing for a goal, which never came. Good result for the visitors. A couple of matches, involving Levadiakos and Doxa, will be played on 28/12; but the next full match day will be in 2012. In the meanwhile, most of the Greek "Super" League will have its Christmas break. Enjoy! :cigar