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borntorun

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Posts posted by borntorun

  1. I would like to get some e-books - free, of course - on football betting. Digged through the web and found nothing worthy. I'm interested in Geoff Harvey sort of stuff. In one piece of quote he relates anatomy and conceeding corners. Sounds bit more educating than those phony messianic titles. Ticket to Millionaire club. I would be most thankfull.

  2. Re: International friendles 29 march France Croatia. France all over. Home ground, class above opponents. Light training this weekend, whilst Croatia travelled to and from heavy away game in Georgia. Croatia suffered defeat, criticism of coach Bilic is at it's peaks. Nothing from this game won't change it, so what to play for? Players are just tired and waiting for return to their clubs. On the other side, France should see this as some real test of their team strenght. This odds don't reflect the ground, qualities, motives... Like books excluded this out of time and space...

  3. Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 8 March

    Barcelona - Arsenal under 2.5 @ 2.70 centrebet
    This is actually realistic scenario, and good reasoning from blackcrow. Barca lead and hide the ball. However, I believe in elimination matches there is a major advantage of live betting in compare to pre-match betting. In league matches everyone does their best, makes point or 3 or none. No one goes over the top if things not working. In elimination, you have this astonishing dialectics; clash of motives, team strenghts, all differently manifested in different match development. Massive opportunities to exploit. I will go prematch No corner before 7:00 @1.83 Bet365, and bet live later.
  4. Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 8 March Corners are bit mistery, yeah. There is so much about them yet to be learned. You see no-corner-potential play and then few in a row. Who knows where it broke, but it broke at one specific point. What about when goalie makes them? You see open play but teams short of quality to reach the byline. You see right-footed right winger always moving ball back. Teams and players to fast and skilfull to even being blocked that way. Formation without wings, but with striker often moving wide to provide low crosses and full back going high up the pitch, like Inter. In prem I noticed defenders put missed crosses away, just to make sure no ************ is sneaking behind their back. So, it is hard and unpredictable, but look at this lines for tonight. It's not so easy to imagine 9 corners for barcelona, or 6 of them in first half, or first corner in 6-7 minutes, which bookmaker prices at 1.83. Come on, game can go this way or that way, but in first minutes we expect calm, patient Barcelona with whole match infront of them, playing posession, observing if there are some gaps in arsenal defence.

  5. Re: In-Play Draw No Bet System

    I've been thinking about this for a bit, but haven't really ever tried it. Say, for example, a match is tied and is nearing around the 75th minute. Now say you're watching the match and 1 team in particular is playing well (especially the non-fav for an odds against bet). Would a system of backing that team who's playing well in a DNB market, in the hope that they do find a late goal, seem like a profitable strategy? I said 75th minute, but the original plan was to leave it nearer the 82nd - 85th minute (before the market closes down). The thought came to me when I was watching a Silkeborg game (I think) a few days ago and they were odds against DNB, which looked good value considering they were bossing the game and constantly on the attack, while the other side had seemingly sat back to play for the draw in the final minutes. Thoughts?
    This idea occured to me too, and I think is good, altough opportunities are rare to test it on regular basis. You need tie at the moment, late phase(75'), dominating team, and indications that their opponents don't have power to come out efficiently in counter-attack. Seems like safe stake and possible profit every now and then. Other thing about draw-no-bet, not neccesarilly in play, that occured to my mind... What do you say about half time draw no bet? On home team favourite let's say. I haven't come accros that market yet. First half is a struggle, who plays overs in fh will know that very vell. Favourites are sometimes hold to draw, sometimes they manage, rarely opponent snatch a lead. Certainly, favourites are not going to play gung-ho with 45 or more minutes left on the clock, and suck from a counter. It's like golden mine.:D I feel ht dnb could be simulated. I don't know how, I'm no good in mathematics. So, uknown number of related individual bets that as a practic result give [team] half time draw no bet @price of normal draw no bet. Any ideas?
  6. Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 23 February

    Inter Milan v Bayern Munich - Bayern Munich (Corners Match Bet) @ 11/10 - 888Sport I really like this bet about Bayern winning the corner count. Bayern use the flanks quite a lot with the pace of Ribery and Robben, whilst they swap several times during a game. Bayern have faired better on the corner count away from home 9/12 times in their domestic league and 3/3 in the group stages of the CL. I was reading an article earlier and liked the comment from Robben, "Bayern Munich are a team with their own style of play and a particular footballing philosophy. We want to play attacking football and we won't change this now".
    useful thoughts. i might take bayern over 4.5 corners @1.80 bet365
  7. Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 23 February

    Expected Formations: 231lo.jpg Uploaded with ImageShack.us
    I very much doubt this lineup of Inter. Nagatomo played two games and made such problems in defence that I can't see him starting important match for inter in foreseeable future. That area is full of rebounds, tackles, nobody's balls and nagatomo often comes short, which decreases overall security level of defence. He easily comes forward and is able to overrun player, but doesn't show advanced dribbling abilities nor left-footed cross. Enthusiastic fellow, but neither a defender neither midifelder for inter. Also, Suazo trequartista with options like Sneijder and Pandev, hm. I have a feeling this game will go over 2,5
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