ChiChi92
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Posts posted by ChiChi92
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Re: Calculating team's total goals in footbal of course still some work to do before having a good system, but no harm in seeing if it gives a 0+ ROI using just this
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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 233 bets +6% yield Hi Grex, Maybe the question has already been answered before but based on your back tests what kind of ROI are you trying to achieve ? What are the biggest drawdowns in the previous seasons ? When you say it is based on comparative strength you mean that you determine theoritical odds directly from a difference of rating/ranking etc between the two teams ? Funny you don't take into consideration historical O/U stats for the two team. gl for the rest of the season !:hope
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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 233 bets +6% yield Hi Grex, Maybe the question has already been answered before but based on your back tests what kind of ROI are you trying to achieve ? What are the biggest drawdowns in the previous seasons ? When you say it is based on comparative strength you mean that you determine theoritical odds directly from a difference of rating/ranking etc between the two teams ? Funny you don't take into consideration historical O/U stats for the two team. gl for the rest of the season !:hope
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Re: Calculating team's total goals in footbal Do you mean that for NBA it works well for a single match ? Do you fit well to the market or get "better prices" than market meaning you have an edge ? My guess is that it works better with NBA because there is a higher number of goals, but if it works for NHL it should work for football games. But is your goal here to fit or find value ? Did you make a backtest to see if there is an edge playing every game where your price deviate significantly from the market ? Will have a look at it
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Re: Calculating team's total goals in footbal Have to disagree with you brecki. Imo you have more chance to take your account to zero by following goonersguide ratings as you do in one of your post than trying to predict goals with your own made model which you backtested, at least it's worth trying. Same for Hercules, the goal here is to find a system to identify value, not a system that will tell you Hercules WILL win. Anyway,g_a_d, let me call you gad, I understand that in your formulas your are doing a kind of geometric average: your formula simplifies to: Expected goals for home = (home scored * away allowed) / (average home scored) just a thought but how is it more logical than Expected goals for home = (home scored + away allowed) / 2 The problem with your formula is if you sum all predictions for one day in a league i'm not sure that the average nb of home goals you predict is equal to the average home goals scored historically, is it ? (whereas it works with the other formula) Regarding the points you made: -you can wait x matches for stats to settle before playing -you can add a factor to weight goals scored/allowed to take into consideration the quality of teams plaed so far
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Calculating team's total goals in footbal
in Betting Systems & Strategy
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Re: Calculating team's total goals in footbal