King's Theatre
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Posts posted by King's Theatre
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Re: THE END OF ANOTHER FESTIVAL Gutted it's finished - as I am every year. Loved it, a cracking festival all round. Made a fair profit which is nice, but the punting just complements the enjoyment I get from the four days. Only three weeks to Aintree. Quevega, Peddlers Cross and Cue Card in the Aintree Hurdle? Oh, go on then.
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Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Cracking race. Agree with Goldikova.
No 6 year-old had won since Mill House, decades, and that stat was broken. Nothing wrong with statistics but using them as a sheer focal-point for punting is blind. I'm pleased for you that you made the race profitable, but a neutral could quite feasibly argue that given the runnings from Kauto, Denman and Imperial - who went really well until late, finishing lame and with a broken blood vessel - you got the gist of the race wrong. The class of the those three suggested this wasn't your average Gold Cup and not an easy one to apply stats to. And so it proved.I'm talking about the trend that said, pre race, that the winner will not be aged 10 or over what happened in the race is irrelevant. Long term it seems it will continue to pay to take on the older horses -
Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase The ground will be all important - think they're due a bit of rain tomorrow morning, in which case Pandorama will run and Denman will be at a greater advantage at the expense of Kauto. A bit of cut would probably suit Imperial too, would lend to almost the same conditions as last year. I don't think Denman will win but he's the one to rate this race around, and at 2.64 on Betfair to be placed I think that's great value. We don't know about Imperial's injury, it seems it was quite serious and he had a lucky escape, but bigger than 4/1 on Betfair is ridiculous for a horse with the best bit of form in the race. Don't think he's being respected enough. If he runs similar to last season's Gold Cup he should win again.
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Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle Not concerned about the lay-off for Cue Card. In the scheme of things he's had a very assured and smooth campaign. I think he'll be suited by a strongly run race as a horse who will need at least 2 and a half miles in time. The field ignored Nicene Creed in the International and the pace in the Sharp Novices' Hurdle wasn't blistering. A stronger pace will help his jumping also. Understandable Colin Tizzard has looked after him, but just one more hurdles run would have made for a better prep and would have taken nothing out of him really. Expect him to be tanking into the home turn, but if Spirit Son, Sprinter Sacre and maybe others are too - which I think is more likely than not - I think Cue Card will get done for a turn of foot and he found little last time. Very strong chance but not unbeatable.
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Re: Jump Racing - 06/03/2011 2:10 - Huntingdon - Robin De Creuse (12/5, Betfair) Weak race, and the favourite First In The Queue fell last time out, so confidence could be dented and he's drifting all the time. The favourite's trainer Nicky Henderson has had a lot of hurdle runners in the last few weeks that have been beaten after going well and then finding nothing at the business end. Moose Moran, Kid Cassidy, Minella Class, Silicium, State Benefit, there's been others as well. Wouldn't wanna touch them at the moment. Robin De Creuse is improving and, with literally a few serious rivals, is a sound bet to beat First In The Queue. ............................... 2:40, Huntingdon - Baan (7/2, Betfair) Again a weak race, with a drifting Henderson favourite in Sizing Ireland who hasn't done much in his racing career. Has a good reputation (went to Punchestown bumper) but currently is another Nomansland or Carabinier who has yet to do it on the track. Baan should go well in the drying ground and has the best hurdles form on offer. Has that bit of flat speed on a course like Huntingdon that could bring him home first.
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Re: Bad NH season? Good post Gingerstipster. Good point about Menorah. Cheltenham does take too much significance, I'll say that as a jumps fan. I love it, but a good run at say the October meeting and people will mention the festival, it's a bit ridiculous. Think the season has been decent on the whole, and there's usually been fair midweek action to watch. The weather has been awful but seen a lot of good racing. I'll miss it when I'm trying to force myself to watch summer jumping later in the year.
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Re: Your festival banker this year... Unoriginal choice, but Big Buck's for me. Grands Crus is his only serious rival it seems, and while the horse is progressive Big Buck's is one of the best and has been there and done it on numerous occasions. Grands Crus does pull hard in his races, and I think he'll have a much better chance with cut underfoot. The Pipe horse has definitely made this World Hurdle a better race, but he's also pushed out Big Buck's slightly which appeals to me. Also think too much is made of Big Buck's 'flat-spots' in races, and Ruby Walsh back in the plate will be a massive asset on the day.
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Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Paddy Brennan is a great judge and loves the horse - as an Imperial Commander fan I was delighted with his Kempton gallop assessment. I think the horse has a cracking chance in a race which I don't think is as open as some in the media are suggesting. If he puts in a similar run to last year Imperial will win it again for me.
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Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Gibb River is interesting, you make a good case. Wincanton is one of the fastest tracks around, but would be interesting to get an average time. Finding the median of 20 times on g/s over course and distance should do the trick. / Fascinating trying to separate the Henderson runners. I know Henderson said Barry thinks the world of Sprinter Sacre, but I think they're really waiting for a novice chasing campaign. My hunch is he has a quicker turn of foot than Spirit Son. Then again, never seen Spirit Son off the bridle in England. Nicky Henderson has been impressed by Spirit Son's professionalism, and he seems to be rating the two of them through Paul Nicholls. Sprinter beat Polisky last time at Ascot, while Spirit Son beat Cedre Bleu in a Listed hurdle at Exeter on heavy. Nicholls rates Cedre Bleu as better right now (previous winner) and the horse likes soft conditions, but Spirit Son absolutely battered him despite giving away 12lbs. Both Geraghty and Henderson thought Spirit Son would improve for better ground. Frightening thought really. I can see both travelling well into the home straight with Cue Card.Hendersons leading 2 for this seem to be Spirit Son and Sprinter Sacre, and I read that Barry G and the trainer seem to be split on preference, and which one Barry should ride. I know Cue Card should win, but at 9/4 the value has gone and the race might find a springer. The one I find interesting is another one of 10 or 11 Henderson entered called Gibb River at 20/1. I've been impressed with its 3 wins, quick times, field strung out behind, but last race was only a class 3, so didn't beat much. However, the time was an easy 3.44 over 16 on G/S and carrying 11.12, which I rate as an impressive performance. What's the standard for Wincanton 2m I wonder? I'm interested in other expert opinions on this one, whether it will or won't be declared at 4 day stage, and who might ride. Would love to get Barry G's view, but I doubt he would answer my tweet? Thanks in advance for your thoughts. -
Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle And Cue Card matches 4 of the 7 criteria if I'm not mistaken. Two of the remaining three - trained in Ireland and the Deloitte/Royal Bond - can't really be put fairly against him as an English-trained horse.
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Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle In my opinion, if Cue Card is 5/2 on the day the market will take it. I will - think it's value for what I reckon is a strong favourite. Cheltenham form in big fields, travels like a tank - ideally would like a bit more off the bridle and perhaps an extra hurdles run, but compared to others prominent in the market he offers the most and has a rating that would win the Supreme in most years. Would have won it purely on ratings last year - not the best guide admittedly, but bar the disappointing Get Me Out of Here the Supreme form is really working out this season.
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Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle Very keen on Sprinter Sacre if Cue Card doesn't take his chance in this. Personally, I think the Tizzards will go for this race though. Spirit Son looks class but his splayed action to me preference for underfoot conditions and still has a bit to prove. Cracking prospect though.
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Re: Wed 5.15 : Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Open NH Flat Race) Love bumpers and the Champion bumper in particular. Real shame the Winter bumper at Newbury wasn't run after the tragedy on Saturday, would have been informative. Not a betting proposition for me, just one to enjoy, but Nicky Henderson has a Flemensfirth gelding called Hit the Headlines who I think looks absolutely class. Was entered for the Winter Bumper so he's rated highly, fences will be his game but can't wait to see his next run.
Fri 1.30 : JCB Triumph Hurdle
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Fri 1.30 : JCB Triumph Hurdle Congrats to Zarkandar punters. No-one could be unimpressed after his Adonis run, but thought he might lack the experience needed and it looked a trappy enough race. He's a cracking prospect. Thought Sam Winner ran well enough, wants further and it's hard for National Hunt-bred horses to win the Triumph without any real cut in the ground. Will improve for fences no doubt.