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Plow-King

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    888.com UK Open

    in Poker

    Posted

    Re: 888.com UK Open Unlucky Gaf. It's a mistake most people make when they start playing live. Ive done it and seen countless other newbies do it, just unfortunate it happpened there with so much at stake. Im sure you'll be back on our screens soon though with your next adventure:ok

    PL Internet Poker Bragging Thread

    in Poker

    Posted

    Re: PL Internet Poker Bragging Thread Well done on all the wins lads, even Jezza is in there. Your gonna need a few more of them $0.60 wins Frisky to out do me :rollin Despite GAF trying to rip me off with the exchange rate. :rollin Im glad I dont get my cash from you when im going on my hols ;) Aint been around for a while as i've been busy with a few other things and the bird doesn't seem to share my enthusiasm for online poker marathons. I get allowed out once a week for a live game, which i'm thankful for.:lol Haven't been away for that long but I see the bar has been raised to a new level, with the 10k Manchester winner. (which, using GAFS exchange rate formula, equates to about 4.8 trillion Lira :tongue2 ) Anyways hopefully I will be back here soon with a Victory shot to post and blow Friskys $0.60 out of the water.

    Deutsche Bank Champs

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Kevin Sutherland couldn’t finish off the job last week and tailed off for a tie for 16th, when a Top 10 would have given a nice profit. Which is a little disappointing as I had hopes of him winning or atleast a top 5 after he was 2nd after 36 holes. More frustration! But on to this weeks event…. The Deutsche Bank championship which for the last 2 years has been played at TPC of Boston. A high class field should be on show for one of the more prestigious events on the Tour. Looking at the stats for the last 2 years it is clear that players who can hit it far have a distinct advantage here and normally figure at the top end of the leaderboard. It also appears accuracy isn’t that vital either as wayward driving still leaves very makeable shots to the Green. The greens aren’t the toughest on tour either, so there is less emphasis on Putting. With all this in mind I intend to take a calculated gamble and exclude a lot of the shorter hitters when trying to look for the winner. Ideally I am looking for players who rank high on driving distance and high on ball striking and who have some sort of recent and course form. With all this in mind I am struggling to come up with players (apart from one), so will go for some long shots. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com%7Boption%7D />

    Ryan Palmer is the only player I can find that has ticks in all the right boxes. He has played this once before, in his rookie season last year and came 17th. But that doesn’t tell the whole story, he was in the top 5 after his first 2 rounds and 9th after the 3rd round, but understandably fell away as the pressure got to him. That was his first time in contention in such a high calibre event. Since then he went on last year to win his first PGA Tour event at the end of last season and also challenged for a few more. So if he gets in contention I would be confident of him performing better than last year. Recent form is good, after a poor start to the season he has made his last 10 cuts. Including a 3rd last time out at the NEC, a 2nd at the BC Open and a 15th at the International. And when he played this last year his form was patchy, 61st in the Buick, 69th in the Reno and 52nd in the International. Stats wise, he is 51st in driving distance for the season and has an all round ranking of 35th. In the last 3 months, when he has come into form he is 31st in ball striking and 38th in GIR.

    Secondly a player who hasn’t played this event before. Kevin Stadler is a player who has popped up on the leaderboard a few times this season only to go backwards very quickly. My main reason for looking at him is he has plenty of length off the tee which is needed for the course. In the last 3 months he is ranked 10th for ball striking. I don’t really understand why he falls away so dramatically as he has won events on the nationwide tour. With this in mind I will be backing him top ten only.

    Another who hasn’t played this course before but who’s game should suit, is Lucas Glover. His form has been very poor of late with 5 missed cuts in a row. But I would put that down to those courses being very tight ones where his inaccurate driving costs him. This course however should let him get away with that and give him shots onto the green. When you consider he is 19th for ball striking and 29th for GIR, It’s a testament to his approach play, which bodes well for this course.

    Finally I will plump for Hank Kuehne as the journeyman of the week. Not a lot to say about this guy other than when he tonks it with the big stick it stays tonked! Some good results recently, with a 2nd in the John Deere and a superb 4th in the International, with some patchy stuff in between. He is another one of those hit or miss players and is just as likely to miss the cut by 10 shots as he is to contend. But in 2 previous appearances here he missed the cut in 2003, but was 6th in 2004. That is more than enough encouragement for me that his length can carry him back in to the top 10 this week.

    The bets

    Ryan Palmer each way (1/5 odds 6 places) 80-1 Betfred

    Hank Kuehne top ten finish 12-1 Stan James

    Lucas Glover top ten finish 12-1 Stan James

    Kevin Stadler top ten finish 22-1 Stan James

    Additional :-

    Ryan Palmer each way (1/4 4 places) First round leader 66-1 Betfred

    Rugby League: Challenge Cup Final

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Rugby League: Challenge Cup Final First half is over. I made that penalty try at 11mins 45 secs. Which should mean everything is sweet. :clap :clap Draw-Leeds at 22-1 dont look to shabby now either. But from what i've seen I think Hull can go on and win this now and am going to back them at 3-1 to win. I only hope they dont begin to tire late on with all the tackling they are doing.

    Rugby League: Challenge Cup Final

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Rugby League: Challenge Cup Final I dont know much about rugby league. But I do enjoy challenge cup final day. I reckon the handicap is about right. If anything I would probably fancy Hull HT Leeds FT at around 13/2 or Draw-Leeds at 22-1. But I think from rugby lads bet I may have stumbled across something of a decent bet. This is what I have done. £100 x 1.90 on 12 minutes or under for the first try = £190 £105.50 x 1.80 on first try after 9mins 15 secs = £190 So I stake (100+105.50) £205.50 and am guaranteed back £190. As the way I see it both bets cannot lose. (only possibility being no try but I have covered that to get my money back at 200-1) So most I can lose is £15.50. If the first try is between 9mins 15 secs and 12 minutes I collect on both bets and my profit will be (£90 + £84.50) £174.50 So the odds I am getting on the first try being between 9 min 15secs and 12 minutes are ((174.50 +15.50) / 15.50) = 12.25. Which means I am getting 11.25-1. I think the numbers are correct, which makes it seem like a decent value bet for me, especially as it appears to be around the optimum time for scoring the first try. I realise the time frame is small but the odds more than make up for it I think. The only comparable thing I can see is Bet Directs timings on the first try and from those I would equate 9-12 mins as being around a 5-1 shot.

    Us Tour Golf, The Buick Championship

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Us Tour Golf, The Buick Championship At the time of writing the first round is almost complete. Not too shabby a start with Sutherland just a shot off the lead. Not so good from the other 3 though. With Fischer and Damron looking out of it. I think I have found what looks a good bet from one of the players who is in the chasing pack. I don't often add players in between rounds, only if I think there is a good reason and I have found several good reasons for this one. In 2001 this player finished tied for 29th in this event and was ranked 50th for putting. In 2002, tied for 18th in the tournament and ranked 41st for putting. In 2003, Tied for 7th and ranked 14th for putting. In 2004 he didnt play. So we see a steady increase in overall finishing position and an improvement in putting every time he has played the course. The main strengths in his game are driving accuracy and GIR, the two main strengths needed around here. For his first round his stats are 71.4% driving accuracy and 83.33% for GIR. Both well above his average performance for the season so far. But he putted poorly with putts per GIR of 1.8, slightly worse than his average for the season. But as I have stated above he knows how to putt around here and improves year on year. We could put his first poor round putting performance down to renewing himself with the greens after missing this event last year. He may well continue to putt like a dog, but I'm gonna take the chance that he can get hot with his putter. And he is currently -2, so only 4 off the lead, with 3 rounds to go. He is none other than Briny Baird. Only price I can see at the moment is 80-1 stan james. And that is a fair price but Im gonna wait and see if anything bigger comes along, when the rest of the bookies price up after the round is complete

    Us Tour Golf, The Buick Championship

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    The Buick Championship, formerly know as the Cannon Greater Hartford Open is played on the River Highlands course. I guess a worthy favourite for this is Kenny Perry. But I don’t fancy Perry as a favourite, and at single figure odds even in as weak a field as this, his price offers little value. The most important stat around this course appears to be Greens in Regulation. (which I guess is why Perry is favourite) With players who finished in the Top ten in this category on this course for the last 2 years more often than not finding themselves in the Top 20 overall. But I am going to go more on the side of course and current form when choosing my selections this week A player who caught the eye last week was Todd Fischer. His form this year so far has been poor. With last weeks 3rd place the only really good result. But in 2003 he had a similarly poor record with a string of missed cuts, then a tie for 39th in the B.C Open, which preceded his 3rd here. And in 2004 he had a tie for 45th in the Reno-Tahoe and went on to get tied 9th here. So what can he build on with last weeks 3rd place? We shall see. But I will be prudent and back him top ten only at 6-1 (Stan James) Another player who has very consistent course form is Kevin Sutherland. In 9 visits to this course he has 8 top 25 finishes. And you have to give that respect considering most of those would have been in better fields than this. In 2003 he missed the cut in the event preceding this and finished T11th. In 2004 he followed missed cuts at the PGA and Reno-Tahoe with T9th here. So again we hope he can build on last weeks 23rd at the Renoe. A good price to boot. 80-1 EW at Stan James and I like the 7-1 Top ten at Stan James, even better. Robert Damron. A typical journeyman and a very hit or miss player. But in the last 2 years he has a T7 in 2003 and T13 in 2004. Both results coming off the back of some very poor form. So his recent poor form of missed cuts in his last 2 events in the US Bank championship and Buick Open (events he always does poorly in ) shouldn’t be much of a worry. However only 6 weeks ago he finished 2nd in the John Deere Classic, his best result for some considerable time. So with that confidence boost and playing on a course he likes, this may well be one of the weeks he performs. 125-1 ew available general. Will side with another Journeyman in Tom Pernice Jnr. He has had a well deserved break since his last outing, a very creditable 23rd in the US PGA. Last year he missed the cut in the PGA and went on to get 3rd here. So hopefully he can take his form into this week. His course form is good, aswell as last years 3rd, he has form of 47-49-6. 80-1 EW available general.

    PL Internet Poker Bragging Thread

    in Poker

    Posted

    Re: PL Internet Poker Bragging Thread Not quite as good as it seems. Have been going at it hard in the last week to try and break in to the bigger MTTs. It is much much harder than the small MTTs which i do/did so well in. With all the money for my entrys i would say Im up about $800:dude . Which is mainly due to one result. I have to say in the one which i came 6th and got $300, with the top prize being $2000. It was a massive step up in the final table. No flops at all. Everything being taken preflop with raises. I just sat tightish and waited for a few to get knocked out, to get in the cash and then make an ill-fated move. But I await ur next installment with interest Frisky:loon

    PL Internet Poker Bragging Thread

    in Poker

    Posted

    Re: PL Internet Poker Bragging Thread Some good results there lads. KOTP, Rednut (surely time to step up from the freerolls and go for some cheap mtts?) And also nice to see Jezza making a few quid for all his hard work. (Although what he forgot to say was he bought in for $1200:rollin ) I just managed to nail my biggest ever payday of $768 in 2nd in a $20 speed rebuy at Paddy Power. Dont have the image posted yet as not on my regular comp. But take note Frisky the challenge has been set.:nana

    Poker music

    in Poker

    Posted

    Re: Poker music What? The karate kid has passed you by. I thought everyone had seen the greatest story ever told. With the highly original American film plot of an underdog winning against all odds and the equally original chorus to the stand out tune on the soundtrack. 'You're the best around, nothings ever going to keep you down' (repeat 20 times) In most trailer parks in America this song is widely regarded as the unofficial national anthem. Classic Yankee inspirational rock.... cant beat it.

    A hand I played in a live game last night

    in Poker

    Posted

    Re: A hand I played in a live game last night I dont know if this is the norm in other casinos. Ive only been playing it the last 5 or 6 weeks. The first week I was there, there were about 33 players, it started at 9.15pm. At 2.30am with 5 of us left we were told the card room closes at 3.00am (as Ive now found out it does every week) and anyone left in with chips on the table gets 10% of the prize pool, then rest is divided up according to proportion of chips. By 2.55am I'm down to the last 3 and the short stack. I go all in with top pair (queens) after the flop only to find the chip leader with pocket rockets. So I'm gone in 3rd, which is in the money. But in recent weeks, the game has become every popular and has reached the maximum number of players, which is 44, with people even being turned away. With so many players the game is never going to finish. Which does affect your play. Due to the tourney starting later they gave us an extra 10 mins. But with the final table starting at 2.10am and we've got until 3.10 am it does change your mind set. Normally at a final table being the short stack I have to try and make a move quickly to accumulate some chips. But here I know if I can last for an hour and even have only one chip left I can score. And if I do risk my chips to accumulate more Im not going to win it anyway am I? I might get a bigger proportion on split of chips but its minimal. As you can see with 7 left we all get 10%. So with 30% left to be split according to chips it is very harsh on the chip leaders, of which Jezza was one after dispatching the idiot.

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