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kreator88

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    4 Systems in 1 thread ;)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: 4 Systems in 1 thread ;) For today I will try to make another post later today, but till now the following horses qualify in my systems: System 1: 14:30 Bev Thatchereen lay @ 9,6 16:30 Bev Opera Fan lay @ 4,3 15:20 Perth Seebright lay @ 5,9 15:50 Perth Citizenship lay @ 13,5 16:20 Perth Tap Night lay @ 8,6 14:40 War Clubland lay @ 9,2

    4 Systems in 1 thread ;)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: 4 Systems in 1 thread ;) Ok... conclussion of 2nd day ... it was a lot better than the first one ... with nearly all-in at the 1st system and with a 100% strike rate of the 4th system after the filtering. Done also some further research into the 2nd and 3rd system and somehow it takes to much time and doesnt bring me a lot further... due to the fact that I will be pretty busy into the next days I will post a little bit less and only the 1st and 4th system (most probably the evening races) will make also a some up of the 2 systems System 1: [TABLE=class: cms_table_tbl cms_table_t3 cms_table_enable-sort, width: 100%]

    [TR] [TD]14:15 Kel Doubledisdoubledat lay @ 3.7 LOST - 27 14:50 Kel Nodform Richard lay @ 5.2 WON + 10 15:00 Lud Talkonthestreet lay @ 4.9 WON + 10 15:35 Lud Zafaraban lay @ 80 WON + 10 17:25 Yar Rookery lay @ 20 WON + 10 18:55 Yar Push Me lay @ 8.2 WON + 10 18:25 Yar Mr Red Clubs lay @ 10 WON + 10 15:45 Weth Bohemian Rhapsody lay @ 4.2 WON + 10 20:15 Wolv Hinton Admiral lay @ 13 WON + 10[/TD] [TD=class: cms_table_ixt][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] System 2: 17:10 Lud Nicolas Chauvin back @ 2.38 LOST - 10 16:55 Yar Golden Steps back @ 2.32 WON + 13 17:55 Yar Freedom's Light back @ 2.40 LOST - 10 19:15 Wolv Travel back @ 1.34 WON + 3 13:45 Kel Lord Brendy back @ 2.04 WON + 10 20:45 Wolv Whispering Start back @ 2.20 LOST - 10 16:20 Yar Charlies Star back @ 1.71 WON + 7 System 3: 15:35 Lud Kingsmere lay @ 3.15 WON + 10 System 4: 5:45 Wolv Trefnant lay @ 46 WON + 10 Brean Splash Susie lay @ 16 WON + 10 7:15 Wolv Miss Tiger Lily lay @ 9 WON + 10 7:45 Wolv Piceno lay @ 13.5 WON + 10 8:15 Wolv Odd Ball lay @ 80 WON + 10

    4 Systems in 1 thread ;)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: 4 Systems in 1 thread ;) Todays bets: System 1: [TABLE=class: tbl t3 enable-sort, width: 100%]

    [TR] [TD]14:15 Kel Doubledisdoubledat lay @ 3.7 14:50 Kel Nodform Richard lay @ 5.2 15:00 Lud Talkonthestreet lay @ 4.9 15:35 Lud Zafaraban lay @ 80 17:25 Yar Rookery lay @ 20 18:55 Yar Push Me lay @ 8.2 18:25 Yar Mr Red Clubs lay @ 10 15:45 Weth Bohemian Rhapsody lay @ 4.2 20:15 Wolv Hinton Admiral lay @ 13[/TD] [TD=class: ixt][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] System 2: 17:10 Lud Nicolas Chauvin back @ 2.38 16:55 Yar Golden Steps back @ 2.32 17:55 Yar Freedom's Light back @ 2.40 19:15 Wolv Travel back @ 1.34 13:45 Kel Lord Brendy back @ 2.04 20:45 Wolv Whispering Start back @ 2.20 16:20 Yar Charlies Star back @ 1.71 System 3: 15:35 Lud Kingsmere lay @ 3.15 System 4: 5:45 Wolv Trefnant lay @ 46 Brean Splash Susie lay @ 16 7:15 Wolv Miss Tiger Lily lay @ 9 7:45 Wolv Piceno lay @ 13.5 8:15 Wolv Odd Ball lay @ 80 this is it for today guys :) GL! thumbsup.gif

    4 Systems in 1 thread ;)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: 4 Systems in 1 thread ;) Hi Steve the first system (which is the main one) I have tested for around 3 weeks (but if you see the amount of bets / day you can see that it gathers a high amount of bets). The problem in testing both the 1st and 4th system is that without using real money 1 you have to estimate sometimes the price (usually I add a worst case scenario of matching price) and it's more or less impossible to calculate the actual prices (going down because of withdraws for example). So till next week I will more or less post a worst case scenario of prices :) The 2nd system I developed while working on the first and the 3rd system is just there as I got confused by the very high amount of winners around 3 - 4.50 of generally long therm losing punters and I am yet not sure what to do with those. 4th System is newer one and as you will see in the results there are still to many best and since today I will add another filter to this. To sum up yesterday was not a bad day ... but unfortunately we had a winner in the 1st System which in a worst case scenario would mean a small lose. Same case in the 4th system where again I had a similar high loser as 2 days ago... hope to get rid of those by adding the filter (Will just take races where I have higher amount of data of the horses running on same distance in the short past .... Took Ad Vitam yesterday having just his data and it looked very bad for the type of race... unfortunately the other were even worster :P) System 1: 14:05 Chep Our Cat lay @ 30 WON + 10 14:55 Mkt Smart Catch lay @ 4.2 WON + 10 17:05 Red Steel Stockholder lay @ 7 WON + 10 6:10 Red Snugfit Sam lay @ 18 WON + 10 16:25 Chep Silent Cliche lay @ 40 WON + 10 Earcomesthedream lay @ 8 LOST - 70 15:55 Red Kiwi Bay lay @ 9.8 WON + 10 Total P/L -10 System 2: 13:50 Yar Abseil back @ 1.94 WON + 9.4 15:15 Chef Cocktails at Dawn back @ 1.40 LOST - 10 15:35 Yar Piazon back @ 1.91 WON + 9.4 13:55 Fak Regal Destruval back @ 2.62 LOST - 10 Total P/L -8 System 3: Cayitis Joy Lay @ 3.35 LOST - 24 Woodland Walk Lay @ 3.95 WON + 10 Total P/L -14 System 4 : 2:10 Red Mey Blossom - lay @ 28 WON + 10 2:45 Red Cowslip - lay @ 13,5 WON + 10 3:20 Red Ad vitam - lay @ 23 LOST - 220 Mitchum - lay @ 100 WON + 10 3:55 Red The great gabriel - lay @ 200 WON + 10 Just Paul lay @ 28 WON + 10 5:05 Red Cape of Hope lay @ 4.9 WON + 10 Great Demeanor lay @ 46 WON + 10 5:40 Red Lucky Lodge lay @ 12 WON + 10 6:10 Red Kinkohyo lay @ 50 WON + 10 3:35 Yar Nova Champ lay @ 6.8 WON + 10 5:20 Yar Comanche lay @ 9 WON + 10 Total P/L -110

    4 Systems in 1 thread ;)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: 4 Systems in 1 thread ;) Thanks santos :) Reposting and including the System 4 bets - keep in mind that just the first 2 system are acurrately tested.. Will start all 4 Systems with a bank of 1000 and 10 pts / pick System 1: 14:05 Chep Our Cat lay @ 30 14:55 Mkt Smart Catch lay @ 4.2 17:05 Red Steel Stockholder lay @ 7 6:10 Red Snugfit Sam lay @ 18 16:25 Chep Silent Cliche lay @ 40 Earcomesthedream lay @ 8 15:55 Red Kiwi Bay lay @ 9.8 System 2: 13:50 Yar Abseil back @ 1.94 15:15 Chef Cocktails at Dawn back @ 1.40 15:35 Yar Piazon back @ 1.91 13:55 Fak Regal Destruval back @ 2.62 System 3: Cayitis Joy Lay @ 3.35 Woodland Walk Lay @ 3.95 System 4 : 2:10 Red Mey Blossom - lay @ 28 2:45 Red Cowslip - lay @ 13,5 3:20 Red Ad vitam - lay @ 23 Mitchum - lay @ 100 3:55 Red The great gabriel - lay @ 200 Just Paul lay @ 28 5:05 Red Cape of Hope lay @ 4.9 Great Demeanor lay @ 46 5:40 Red Lucky Lodge lay @ 12 6:10 Red Kinkohyo lay @ 50 3:35 Yar Nova Champ lay @ 6.8 5:20 Yar Comanche lay @ 9

    4 Systems in 1 thread ;)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: 4 Systems in 1 thread ;) Will start all 4 Systems with a bank of 1000 and 10 pts / pick System 1: 14:05 Chep Our Cat lay @ 30 14:55 Mkt Smart Catch lay @ 4.2 17:05 Red Steel Stockholder lay @ 7 6:10 Red Snugfit Sam lay @ 18 16:25 Chep Silent Cliche lay @ 40 Earcomesthedream lay @ 8 15:55 Red Kiwi Bay lay @ 9.8 System 2: 13:50 Yar Abseil back @ 1.94 15:15 Chef Cocktails at Dawn back @ 1.40 15:35 Yar Piazon back @ 1.91 13:55 Fak Regal Destruval back @ 2.62 System 3: Cayitis Joy Lay @ 3.35 Woodland Walk Lay @ 3.95 System 4 coming later on

    4 Systems in 1 thread ;)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Hello together, been a while since I last posted in here ... but been working on 4 systems in this time. Got quite far into testing with 2 of them and will start betting real money on them since the begining of next week (still need this time to gather the needed bankroll) Will use betfair odds ... and till next week i will try to be as accurate as possible in setting up the prices (since next will they will be 100& accurate, as it will be my own prices) Most admit from the start that I am a statistician not a horse tipster ... got a a clue about racing but I will avoid writing analysis... as for sure I am not good at it (I am more a good prospect of system 1 :spank 1. System is a laying system of tipsters in bad form or a bad general ROI (Got a quite huge list of tipsters from different websites and offline ... which I compare to define the lays) 2. Quite similar with the above one, just I will back horses of in form or positive ROI tipsters. the following 2 are systems that I am not yet confident about... 3. I can not yet decide if this brings profit or not... as I can not yet decide if to integrate them in the 1 or 2 system... I will test this in lay format ...but might prove as a very profitable backing system... 4. For this thing I had the time to test and was sure about it... till yesterday when I had a loser (laying at around 40) - Plumpton 4:25 Azabitmour ... won by a nose which made me quite insecure... I tryed to develop a rating system and analyse just the running (despite a few others saying the top speed might be also very important... think I don't have enough racing exp for this so I will stick just to the all weather and a few flats.... Laying the worst runner in the field.

    slow?

    in Announcements, Introduce Yourself & Feedback

    Posted

    Re: slow? thanks Paul for the fast reply. In the same area I acces different websites and this one usually doesn"t work well... it is true the reception isn"t optimal (but still it should work) it loads just half of the page and the rest is a black part which is impossible to read.

    Can you elaborate? ;) How is the reception in the area you tried? Have you tried in same area on several different days?

    Blog 4 Discipline (Laying and place bets for the beginning)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Blog 4 Discipline (Laying and place bets for the beginning) My first bet will be : 7.05 Kemp Kakatosi place @ 3/4 (Betfair) This one has also changed stables and had a winner on debut. LTO it had a difficult draw and couldn't really handle it, that's the reason for such a bad placing....but he wasn't that far away to be honest. My biggest concern is regarding the track, as it's last to attempts where at wolves and ling...but this one is being balanced by the fact the besides lastking non off the horse could be called a kempton specialist. The mark shouldn't be a problem as it used to be a class 1 horse, but was relegated after the bad form in 2012. Draw 1 is perfect today, so we won't see the trouble from his last run. Speed is one of the best, so an effort close to the one at ling would be more than enough for a place position. One of the market favorites is lastking... but I think it had already his highest mark and it can't handle so much weight. One of the outsiders I do like is Lujeanie, but the bad draw is keeping me away from it, and makes me more confident about my choice. hope for a good start :D

    Blog 4 Discipline (Laying and place bets for the beginning)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I am new to horse racing and in the last 2 weeks I've tried to gather as much info as possible (Q & A from this forum were very helpful - thank you guys). Unfortunately I'm still lacking the discipline of a newcomer. Making to many bets and not focusing on a specific area. I'm using this blog in the hope of gaining more experience with help of your feedbacks and by writing my pro-arguments for a bet, avoiding races where I have no clue or not enough arguments. By doing this I hope to raise my discipline in betting. Most of my bets will be laying a horse, where I'm confident that it hasn't enough arguments for the odds being offered. Or place bets because I'm not yet very sure on some aspects of racing and I often miss a horse or two who still come from nowhere in my eyes and finish in front of my selection.... so place bets are safer for me at this point. I'll sometimes have very small odds for horse racing, just hope the more experienced guys won't feel offended by my small odds ... I promise to work hard and try to be more confident on my bets and go for the win market in the near future. For selecting my bets I use a combination of percentage of placings by the jockey and trainer, speed ratings, draw bias and early market movements. Most of my bets will be from flat racing in handicap races till 1m. I'll use a flat system with 1 point / bet ... and I'll write my odds in decimal form (I'm used to this system and it's easier for me to count the yield and the P/L)

    Thursday 24th Jan Flat Meetings

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Thursday 24th Jan Flat Meetings King George placed (2nd) so I'm hoping for another winning bet... 7.05 Kemp Kakatosi place @ 3/4 (betfair) This one has also changed stables and had a winner on debut. LTO it had a difficult draw and couldn't really handle it, that's the reason for such a bad placing....but he wasn't that far away to be honest. My biggest concern is regarding the track, as it's last to attempts where at wolves and ling...but this one is being balanced by the fact the besides lastking non off the horse could be called a kempton specialist. The mark shouldn't be a problem as it used to be a class 1 horse, but was relegated after the bad form in 2012. Draw 1 is perfect today, so we won't see the trouble from his last run. Speed is one of the best, so an effort close to the one at ling would be more than enough for a place position. One of the market favorites is lastking... but I think it had already his highest mark and it can't handle so much weight. One of the outsiders I do like is Lujeanie, but the bad draw is keeping me away from it, and makes me more confident about my choice.

    BBOTD Thursday 24th January

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Thursday 24th January 15:15 Ling - King George River 1pt win - 2/1 (bet365) BOG Was very promising LTO when being at the debut over C and D for new stable and should improve, being unexposed once again after the 1 month break. Has the best speed on this track, likes the distance and has a big market support, think connections are supporting this one big time. Philip Prince one of the best apprentice jockeys is ridding it... claiming an extra 7 lbs, which will be a huge advantage. Club House is one of the main dangers, but I think it's penalty after last 2 rides is to high, but Tight Knit could make a surprise but has never run over this distance so I need to see him run once before taking him next time out. (not sure about some aspects so I prefer to take the 2.00 odd for the place market offered from betfair, will keep this win bet just for the competition.)

    Thursday 24th Jan Flat Meetings

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Thursday 24th Jan Flat Meetings 15:15 Ling - King George River to place - 2.00 (betfair) (2 places payed) This is a huge odd from my point of view (at paddy for example you'll get just around 1,53 for this place bet). Was very promising LTO when being at the debut for new stable and should improve once again after the 1 month break. Has the best speed on this track, likes the distance and has a big market support, think connections are supporting this one big time. Philip Prince on of the best apprentice jockeys is ridding it... claiming an extra 7 lbs.

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