coldpenguin
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Posts posted by coldpenguin
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Re: Draw betting system Obviously i will not post any more bets, so this system is now void. Its to time consuming with the on running bets and totals. However i will post a few in other sections.
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Re: Draw betting system Besides get round the forum, stop wasting time, Mr important. Check on the bets. Don,t be a fruit cake:welcome this is the way to Colditz:cheers:nana
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Re: Draw betting system You have made it on both counts. Rude on both counts. Every bet that anybody makes after study, it still counts for guess work and luck. I am a expert in pools which are in effect chasing Draws. I understand totally, i understand perms and plans with all the methods in % to guarantees, but more important the execution of choosing the right one for the situation. This does not mean that i get the score Draws each week. It just means i am increasing my chances. It must count for something, having 4 wins on the pools 2 wins on Prem 10 and a footy 15 mini league win.( Last season alone.) Luck like that does not occur, without work and understanding. Regarding these Draw bets, this is one week set. I will soon have it sorted, and theres always things i can do to rectify it, if it continues to be cheesy. I mean it is down 4.75 points, i,m glad. Now stop being a BANANA:nana
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Re: Draw betting system I can not understand your thinking. This is 1 set of bets, on 1 day, if any body is worried about any bets they have placed , then bankroll management must need some serious attention. Besides on the day pretty unlucky really. I see your good at digging at members bets, infact i have been a member for a few days and my other bet placed was rudely comented on . I put it in the wrong place. I thought it was in the right place, obviously not. Just a point to you, i don,t care what you think about my bets, other members might be interested in my bets. Thanks for pointing out the % on the bet. Get round the forum and see which bets have lost. I would say unlucky mate. Good luck with your attitude.
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Re: Draw betting system Well farmers are glad cows can,t fly, and Elvis has left the building. Bush is the President of Pluto. This goes to show you don,t know it all.:cow:nana:drums:cry
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Re: £5 to £1000 Good way of helping the bookies make money. I understand your having fun, but this is money so its serious. Advice, have a Bankroll, and take it serious, it is still fun.
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These are my top rated T/c numbers for this week(treble chance. I have also included a Plan, remember its always better to pick a few of your own . This makes it unique to you. 3-4-6-10-11-13-15-16-18-19-20-23-28-31-32-33-37-38-42-43-44-46. --------------------------------------------------------------------- Mirror 10 = 22 selections in a plan that has a min guarantee 7 if 8 . So if you catch 8 draws you must have at least 7 in a line. with 10 Draws you have a 63% chance of 1 to 13 tops (24 points). 9 Draws = 20.32 % chance of 1 to 4 tops. 8 Draws= 3% chance of 1 top. 7 Draws = 32.28% chance of 1 to 7 lines of 7. 6 Draws = 80.17 chance of 1 to 28 lines of 6.
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Re: Draw betting system Understand you, i,m not trying to change my picks, i would never do that. However i do understand the reasons as then it remains fair to all. My worry is , if a make a mistake, then want to edit it before results play. But in that case i would put a post below it, so ok. Thanks for your help, appreciate it.
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Re: Coldpenguins tips Next 2 Draws here as we can not edit posts. Derby approx odds 12/5 LDL 20th in table 28% chance (form43) take on C/ Palaced dLL 19th in table (form47). This should be a close game. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Yeovil approx odds 12/5 lLlW 17 in table 28% chance (form43) take on Exeter LwWD 12 in league form (60). Even though Exeter have climbed 5 places, i have just had mail of mate saying they might have few injury worries. -----------------------------------------------------------------------
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Coldpenguins tips The 8 Single Draw bets are as follows. 1 point bet on all Singles Draws. Blackpool- approx odds 12/5 last 4 WDWD 9th in table 28% chance (form 41.) Good chance of a Draw against a Blackburn side-LDl 14th in table (form 46) i don,t feel Blackpool will out play Blackburn even though they have the worst 5 match (form) ----------------------------------------------------------------- Fulham-approx odds 23/10 DwD 7th in table 28% chance (form 55) Think good chance of a Draw, although Fulham have climbed the table 7 places recently, they have 3 strikers out for this game against a Everton side LLd 19th in table (form 47). Feel that Everton can steal a point here, with Fulhams attack in a poor situation. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Man City approx odds 12/5 4th in table 29% chance (form53) But i feel although Chelsea 1st in table (form 61) still take on a strong city side. -------------------------------------------------------------------- West Ham- approx odds 12/5 LwL 20th in table 31% chance(form52). They take on Spurs LWD 5th in table (form48). I feel the Ham can get a point here. -------------------------------------------- Hartlepool- approx odds 12/5 LwL 20th in table 30% chance (form 44) they take on Walsall WLL 18th in table (form 35). This could be close. --------------------------- Hearts- approx odds 12/5 DwD 3rd in table 30% chance (form 49) they take on a Motherwell side very much in (form 60) WWw 5th in league. -------------------------------------------- Will post 2 more shortly with pools numbers.
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Re: Draw betting system No, but you can plough through the bets i put up.
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Re: Value questions? Yes i understand your thinking combining the stake with the value of the bet. So we then come to a evaluation of a points bet against risk. Look for the value in the bet, to me means bookie price to my expected price. So the bookie has the perticular bet at evens, and i think it should only be 4/6. So i take that bet. With reference to a stake, this is done on bankroll rules, and results in the past, if its an ongoing concern. Its always an ongoing concern. For me mixing these % with stakes can be ok. But. The risk of a bet or bets, it based on, bankroll management with reference to past scenario,s taken into account. So small adjustments needed, but in my mind, not % to the (just value). Equation= Value) Then Past results, your last bet or bets. & then Stake. Under Bankroll rules. I prefer than, working a Stake to only, what Chance it has, if you know what i mean.
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Re: Draw betting system Understand the members want to see running totals, so they can see the sytem equations, and i understand this. With this in mind the 8 single Draws will have to go in this thread, as this is based on running totals tweaked with points adjustment on a weekly basis. This is only fair. Also the midweek singles, as this follows the same pattern, so here as well. I think i will get away with the small Accas in the other thread. I will put up other pools picks ie, possible score draws here as well. But these will be coupon based, so no interest unless a member does the classic pools. Should be ok, if not i can always adjust for next week. Cheers.
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Re: Myself as a new member While i am here i will explain my weekly ideas on how i do things. I bet on Singles, with the occasional small stake Acca. Taking out the top end of the Acca. I bet on midweek matches as above. Weekend with more selection available i bet 8 single Draws as ongoing. I bet 2 seperate pools coupons, with a range of Plans and Perms. I also have a few bets on Millionaire, which include pick ten,predictor10 with wild card and Zero points game. I also play the Prem 10 on a seperate site. I do the lotto and euro as a plan and daily play as a ongoing plan. I spend most of the week working out the bets. Last season i netted over £50,000, i also was part of a mini league where we won £ 33,333 on the footy 15, this is no longer available. Other games have taken its place, its a case of choosing the correct ones. All my bets are long term, with excellent bankroll management. I also along with Prem 10 get involved with a mini league, more often than not i do my own with a few doubles or take 2 out etc.
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Re: Myself as a new member Let me make things clear. I am not selling anything and not promoting anything. If at any time any member wants to challenge my bets its fine, also if any member wants help with bets , ideas, stats and pools plans or perms. I will do my best to answer all questions. I think i can certainly answer any questions on pools plans etc. Sometimes i get questions on the type of plan to use. The more info you can give me the better, because there are so many factors. Include stake, your picks on the coupon, i don,t mean tell me your selections, i mean your ideas how they will fall. Amount of selection your thinking of doing. This way we can come up with a execution with a type of plan to suit. Remember we are fitting the Plan to what your picks are likely to be. This changes on a weekly basis.
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Re: Draw betting system I take your point. What i will do is post my selections with the approx price. Obviously as members use diferent bookies. I will post the bets with a reason. Stats etc. The difficult thing is where to post them. With the 8 draw singles and a pools number selections. The other question i have is on a topic on what i bet in total in a week. Don,t mean the amount staked , i mean my weekly plan of all bets . Basically the thinking behind my theories and the long term stratergy. I am not getting involved in running totals, as this is personal, also individuals have their own way of how to procede. I agree with you totally on being sceptical, it is the right way to be.
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Re: Living of betfair? Yes you can make a living from betting. Depends what living you need. Normal football bets with bookie and pools betting earn me a living. Simple as that, but its about management, discipline, bankroll management and hard work. You then need a good wedge or a break on a long shot bet.
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Re: Draw betting system What would you like me to say. To be honest i would not know where to post my bets on this site. I will post them but not sure where yet. Lets hope you understand them. Don,t think you will, mind you they will only be single bets, even you should master them.:clap I will post my bets, but i would never give details like betting slips etc, i will however put up my selections before event. No one forces any member to go with any members selections. I will do it as a good will gesture. Quick question , do you understand pools betting? The 8 bets are single Draw bets, not an Acca of any kind. I would not put 8 draws in an Acca. Totally seperate issue on a pools coupon, where i might do 29 selections in loads of lines in a plan, starting at 1 pence a line. If we think of odds lets say 10 teams in a Acca the odds are approx 50,000/1 of the top of my head. .
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Re: Multi-tabling I think i can answer your question. I play with a 42 inch tv as monitor, and its very good, with good definition. You can play 12 tables at a time with no over lap. So even if your a break even player, you can get points and bonuses much easier. I was playing at Poker Stars, but fell out with them. Long Story. Any way just joined Full Tilt, not sure of the set up yet. The graphics look awesome. I do know the sngs will take longer to fill up, as p/stars is the biggest site.
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Re: Computer Program Predictions When we use the word Value, it is a deep subject that we need to understand. But basically we are looking to have a value bet. If we think the bookie has the odds wrong for a certain game, not because he has made a mistake, but because we know better. We might have done our homework and decided that the bookies odds at evens, might be a good bet. We valued it at a 4/6 shot, so we will take the bet at evens. If we are doing Accas of sorts, we need not only to get the individual value. We need to tweak the bet to make sure the value in still there in the number of lines.
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Re: Shrimpy and his in-play laying idea Now i do wish you luck, and i mean that. I do not like this betting. To me its going against the grain. You are staking all your money each time, your hole bankroll. You may have money in reserve, but its not the point, at this time you are staking all. The other point is you are laying, so your in a way becoming a bookie. But with a huge margin for loosing. The bookie does not lay in the same way that he offers you. He has the advantage of the distribution of the bets, also the gross of bets. Anyway its only a point. Good Luck.
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Re: You can't beat the bookies on Draws. There is some confusement on this theory on beating the bookie. You are not worried if the bookie makes money. You are yourself up against the bookie. So on the Draws we will beat him in the long term. With the Value, plus with our tweaking of the stake to the odds. Then using last bet information for adjustments.
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Re: Myself as a new member There will be great things. Stick to Bankroll management , understanding Value, understand normal bets, and long shot bets, that you need to be in for the long haul. The Draw bets i will put up Friday. These will be 8 single bets with a 1 point start. I will also put up in total 20 extra ones, so if any member does the pools with a plan, he can pick a few if he or she wants. But the top 8 will be the 8 singles, and i will call them Bankers.So members don,t get confused. If any body wants advice on Plans on the pools, i will be happy to help. I firmly believe in helping members with anything i can. I am not here to talk in riddles, or run members down, only to help where i can.
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I think i understand your question. First of all, because i am a classic pools punter. I will look at the whole 49 pools games. I break them down as anybody would, get rid of what you would call the home bankers. Obviously understanding, even for a high table good form team, there is no such thing as an away banker. So then we need to look at past results, form, ratings and table position. If we go on and talk pools betting, then we get into great detail. With Perms versus Plans, minimum guarantees, the best to use, depending where you think the Draws will fall. Either a normal plan, a block plan, or non consecutive and consecutive. Remembering consecutive plans have to be nurchured, as they can be top heavy. We then need to work out ratio,s. Bassically thinking on average the draws that on average fall in a perticular league. So we dont want to pick all our 8 single bets from the Premiership. Possibly 3 from the Prem, 3 from the Championship and may be two from any Division. Basically keeping in line with a normal pools bet. Now although this is a 8 seperate singles Draw bet, with odds around 3/1 the same basic rules apply to doing the trebble chance. The obvious change is your up against the bookie, and with the pools your up against other punters. The great thing about the single Draws is as follows. Every time you make your 8 selections, its a new bet. This enables you to tweak the stake to the odds, after knowing your last results. So we are always gaining information. Last time out i got 5 draws out of 8, before that it was 2 and 4. This weeks is still at 1 point. My advice is use 4 bookies so you get the best price, as they are all single bets. I use 4 bookies. 2 pools company,s, one that requires an account and one that is pay and play. I also have account with millionaire. With the fixed odds no more than 4% and with pools its much less bankroll, as these are longer shots.
Treble Chance,football pools.
in Glory Hunters
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Firstly i will keep this post short for now, because i am unsure if it is posted in corect place. To the moderator, i am sorry if it is in wrong section. I will be posting about the football pools and the stratergies and all the concepts regarding the treble chance. Including the pools sites and Plans versus Perms. This is soley to help members and for interest. I will obviously carry on with the post when i know its in corect place. Anyway briefly about myself, i am a pro at the pools and i have proven track record, just saying this so members don,t think i am fooling around, or messing the moderator about. Anyway i have won the pools many times on both Littlewoods and Brittens, now called Jackpot pools. I have also won Prem 10 on my own and as part of a mini league. Also i am the only person ever to have won the footy 15, now called footy 12. But this is not about showing off, its for intertest, and help to any members that are interested giving an in depth look into the systems and Perms/ Plans etc.