_wilkie_
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Posts posted by _wilkie_
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Re: Wilkies selections 2010-2011 Not a good midweek following an awful weekend, but got a good feeling for this weekend!All odds are from Coral Online. Here are the bets: Bet A - Brighton (11/10) and Newport (2/1) Bet B - Chesterfield (5/6) and Notts County(11/8) Bet C - Fleetwood (1/3) and Oldham(5/6) Bet D - Port Vale (13/8) and Man United(8/11) The above bets will be permed as usual as a Lucky 15 style bet, ABCD, Singles, Doubles, Trebles and a Fourfold. Good luck for anyone who wishes to follow. Enjoy Forgot to add, for the next few weeks I will be paper trailing some foreign leagues, mainly the top leagues in Italy, France, Spain and Germany. Here are the picks I have highlighted as winners: Barcelona - 1/6 Dortdmund - 3/2 Mainz - 11/10 Real MAdrid - 1/6 Sochaux - 1/1 St Etienne - 15/8 Valencia - 4/7 Villarreal - 8/15 Wolfsburg - 11/10
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Re: Wilkies selections 2010-2011
Newport County v Forest Green, 19:45 NEWPORT 40 QPR v Millwall, 20:00 QPR 35 Brighton v Brentford, 19:45 BRIGHTON 35 Cardiff v Crystal Palace, 19:45 CARDIFF 30 Leeds United v Preston, 19:45 LEEDS 30 Peterborough v Notts County, 19:45 PETERBOROUGH 20 OK so as mentioned earlier, here are my predictions for tomorrow, which were generated from my usual system, but verified by a new rating style system. Basically, my new rating style system will parse the data from picks, and do a few simple calculations with the data i.e. home form, away form,general form. Each team will have a rating change after every match, so we will see how this changes throughout the season. My main system is much more in-depth than the rating system, however, I do believe that it may be taking on too much data and calculations that results may become too manipulated sometimes, so the point of my ratings system is to narrow these down to a nice amount of picks. As there are only 6 picks, I will be doing a 6-fold acca, at odds of 18.4/1. I will be putting 10pts on this acca. Enjoy.:drums -
Re: Wilkies selections 2010-2011 ok, so after the awful results from the weekend, I have been busy developing a side system to sit next to my main program. I will explain this when In more detail later when I post the predictions up. Hopefully, both programs together will bring me back up after the weekends disappointment.:ok
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Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II some good little wins their fleet well done, nice to see a good bounce back from last week! Hopefully I can bounce back next week to!
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Re: Wilkies selections 2010-2011 savage results this week!waste of time!heres to next weekend!
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Re: Draw betting system looking forward to your predictions mate!
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Re: Computer Program Predictions Hi All, So heres my bets for the weekend, once again this will consist of a Lucky 15 based on doubles, as follows: Double A - Burnley 4/6 & Torquay 1/2 Double B - Tottenham 11/10 & Cheltenham 8/5 Double C - QPR 4/6 & Blackpool 9/4 Double D - Brighton 5/6 & Norwich 20/21 Bets ABCD will be permed into 4folds, 6folds and an 8fold The staking will be 1pt per bet:- 15 bets @ 1pt = 15pts Current bank = -5pts Lets hope this does well!!:tongue2
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Re: Computer Program Predictions OK, so here are the picks to come out of my system for the weekend, once I have figured out what bets I will be putting down I will update the thread. Unfortunately, there was only 1 french match to come out of the system, and the odds make it worthless to put on. Although the odds on the two Mexican games look very nice! On a side note all odds below are from BWIN.
EnjoyArsenal v West Brom, 15:00 ARSENAL 4/25 QPR v Doncaster, 15:00 QPR 3/5 Burnley v Bristol City, 15:00 BURNLEY 13/20 Nott'm Forest v Swansea, 15:00 NOTT'M 21/20 West Ham v Tottenham, 15:00 TOTTENHAM 19/20 Cheltenham v Bury, 15:00 CHELTENHAM 27/20 Blackpool v Blackburn, 15:00 BLACKPOOL 9/4 Montpellier v Arles, 18:00 MONTPELLIER 9/20 Cardiff v Millwall, 12:00 CARDIFF 7/10 Torquay v Macclesfield, 15:00 TORQUAY 11/20 Bolton v Man Utd, 12:00 MANUNITED 9/20 Man City v Chelsea, 12:45 CHELSEA 19/20 Peterborough v MK Dons, 15:00 PETERBOROUGH 3/4 Reading v Barnsley, 15:00 READING 7/10 Rotherham v Chesterfield, 15:00 ROTHERHAM 11/10 Leeds United v Sheff Utd, 15:00 LEEDS 1/1 Brighton v Oldham, 15:00 BRIGHTON 4/5 Morecambe v Barnet, 15:00 MORECAMBE 4/5 Norwich v Hull, 15:00 NORWICH 9/10 Bournemouth v Carlisle, 15:00 BOURNEMOUTH 23/20 Necaxa v Cruz Azul CRUZAZUL 5/4 morelia vToluca TOLUCA 17/10 -
Re: Computer Program Predictions
shame on tonights matches!!but you know what they say, 2 out of 3 aint bad! lets hope for more luck on the weekend!Ok so as its the carling cup this week, the only bets I will be placing will be for the Blue Square. The only strong picks I have for tomorow are: Cambridge:dude vs Kettering - BWIN odds 31/50 Rushden :dudevs Histon -BWIN odds 7/20 Tamworth :@vs Bath - BWIN odds 11/20 Unfortunately the odds on these games really are not great, so I will only be doing these as a treble. Also starting from today I will try and add some structure to this thread. Starting Bank:- 20points Above treble with a 10 point stake. The payout will be 33.90 points. Current bank: 10 points -
Re: Computer Program Predictions Ok so as its the carling cup this week, the only bets I will be placing will be for the Blue Square. The only strong picks I have for tomorow are: Cambridge vs Kettering - BWIN odds 31/50 Rushden vs Histon -BWIN odds 7/20 Tamworth vs Bath - BWIN odds 11/20 Unfortunately the odds on these games really are not great, so I will only be doing these as a treble. Also starting from today I will try and add some structure to this thread. Starting Bank:- 20points Above treble with a 10 point stake. The payout will be 33.90 points. Current bank: 10 points
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Re: Computer Program Predictions now that the french league has played a decent amount of games I will start to run off picks for the top french division, I am also looking into trialling my system with the mexican primera, so depending on how long it takes for me to gather thr data i need, we could have some trial matches for the weekend! If there are any other leagues users would like to see, please let me know and I will try and get the leagues data put into the database.
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Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II Unlucky on your bets mate, really shocked at the millwall outcome!!
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Re: Computer Program Predictions Cheers for the advice fleet, Ill be putting the odds up the next time!And yes, i did pinch your canadian doubles idea for my lucky 15s!:lol Double A - Chesterfield:dude & Exeter:wall Double B - Blackburn :wall& Notts County:dude Double C - Stoke:wall & Accrington:dude Double D - Eastbourne:dude & Wrexham:wall Actually feel rather unluck with these, think I may compile the doubles in some kind of method in future, hopefully decreasing the chances of what happened today, 1 loss 1 win on all of them!
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Re: Computer Program Predictions nice start to my picks with a 3-0 win for accrington!:dude
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Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II Thanks for the link mate, handy site to know!Unfortunately, I need match data to implement the lower league sides to my system. I guess as the lower leagues do not gain much media attention the stats just arent available.
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Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II Hi fleet, NIce to see someone elses picks look similar to mine from my post, mind you I have left out the championship for this weekends bet. Im curious as to where you collect your data for the lower league teams? I usually get my data from football-data.co.uk, if you could share where you get your stats from I would greatly appreciate it.
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Re: Computer Program Predictions OK, so after posting my predictions earlier, I have now decided on the bets that will be put on for the weekend, and they are as follows: Bet 1 - Chesterfield & Exeter Bet 2 - Blackburn & Notts County Bet 3 - Stoke & Accrington Bet 4 - Eastbourne & Wrexham Bet 5 - Bet 1 + Bet 2 Bet 6 - Bet 1 + Bet 3 Bet 7 - Bet 1 + Bet 4 Bet 8 - Bet 2 + Bet 3 Bet 9 - Bet 2 + Bet 4 Bet 10 - Bet 3 + Bet 4 Bet 11 - Bet 5 + Bet 3 Bet 12 - Bet 5 + Bet 4 Bet 13 - Bet 6 + Bet 4 Bet 14 - Bet 8 + Bet 4 Bet 15 - Bet 1, 2, 3 & 4 Cheers,
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Re: Computer Program Predictions Here are my predictions for this weekend stoke blackburn exeter huddersfield nottscounty accrington chesterfield oxford shrewsbury crawley eastbourne wrexham york Once i have decided on the method of betting I will be doing with these I will update this post.
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Re: Computer Program Predictions
I think I will go with both folds and singles at first, see how I get on then chose the future method from there, although I appreciate the point of one misread corrupting the whole bet. Also, funny you mention www.football-data.co.uk , this is where I import data from to my database.To add on to what Datapunter said, Unless you have a system that is extremely accurate, singles are the way to go. Why? Because you only have to get the percentages of a single game right - do a five-fold and a single misread game ruins all the value in the other four bets. If your system is consistent and perfect, there will be no difference if you bet singles or five-folds. However, if your system is slightly off, singles will be better. So to conclude, go for singles. If you go to http://www.football-data.co.uk , you can download historic odds for all games in the English leagues for the past years, and then backtest your system to see how profitable and accurate it is. :ok -
Re: Computer Program Predictions
Some good advice boss, I do feel that I need to adjust my program to point of the value of a pick as well, even more so after reading your comments here, and the posts in http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/how-beat-bookies-value-betting-guide-inc-spreadsheet-102626/.A serious misconception as the same applies as with singles. So you got 5 teams that you think will win, if the odds where 1.01 on each would you bet on 5 fold accumulator ? If you answer yes you got a big problem. You wouldn't as there would be no value whatsoever in a bet like that. If you don't understand this then please stop betting until you do as you are throwing money away. You must determine, based on your prediction, if the odds represent value or not and only bet when they do. In that case it makes little difference if you do singles or accumulators. If your perception of value is correct that is. Let's say you have estimated team A to have a 50% chance of winning the match. If you can get odds above 2.00 then you have value in the odds on offer according to your prediction model. If the available odds are below 2.00 there is no value in them. So how do you know if your model is accurate enough to make a profit ? If your model allows you to find value more often than not you'll make a profit. The only way to actually know if that is the case, is to apply the system to a fairly large group of bets, and see if you do end up in profit. On each individual bet you will never know if value is or was present as you can never determine the exact % chance of a selection winning. Some bets may have value and win or lose. Some bets may not have value and win or lose. The only thing you can measure is your profit over time and that tells you that on the past X bets you have indeed found, on average, some value. Or not in the case you got a loss. -
Re: Computer Program Predictions
cheers for that mate, my system has 2 separate selection processes in, I only go with the pick if both systems have the same outcome. One process has what I call 4 'cores', of which one core is a weighted goals system. Unlike you, I only use the results from upto the last 5 games, as I dont believe early matches have any relation to a game towards the end of the season, although I will be following your picks closely as it seems interesting.The tool I use isn't available at the request of my developer :lol but the basics are league table positions (difference)* home team's home form for season vs away team's away form for season** and last 6 form - weighted for bigger winning margins, losing at home more damaging than losing away, away wins rewarded more than home wins, etc etc - for home side only*** *this obviously fluctuates at the start of the season as one win can change league positions quite dramatically. Hence I feel my ratings get better as the season progresses. **again, after just 4 or 6 games, there is not a lot of "home data" or "away data" - so again this improves as the season progresses. ***this bit always puzzles people, but even the top sides tend to cock up away rather than at home. My ratings rate the chance of a home win, not the chance an away win. But technically, if the ratings say there's sod all chance of the home side winning, then that still implies that the away side is favoured. -
Re: Computer Program Predictions jenspm thanks for your link, I will be sure to take a look at it, much appreciated. Fleetfanatic, im interested as to how your predictions are calculated, as my system works of from previous 5 performances to find the team playing better. When I get a moment I will take a look at my own system as this may be a bug in calculation to say that Kettering will win, we shall see.
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Re: Computer Program Predictions
the computer program is coded in unibasic with a unidata backend. it uses previous matches data to see how well the teams did from their making a prediction for the match at hand. i am unsure currently as to how to pick the matches with value, although i will dig into the link posted above to get a better understanding. The reason for me not needing to know the odds ia because I have always bet on accumulators and not singles, hence the odds always count.That description would cover just about any "computer" system, it says nothing. Unless you have some method if defining of the availabe odds represent value a "pick" has no meaning whatsoever. Would you still bet on NOTTS COUNTY to win the match if the odds where 1.01 ? I think not, so at what point is it worth betting ? Here i have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. I'd love to give you some feedback but it's all pretty vague and mysterious. -
Re: Computer Program Predictions The program does predict the % of home draw away, which is one factor I consider when chosing which section to place the pick in dependant on the outcome given, which is given twice, from two different methods. If the outcomes are the same from both methods, I will use the pick. No, I do not use odds or calculate odds currently, do you recommend this to enhance the system? If so, in what way would this be best used? Wilkie
Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II Most if not all of my generated picks for the foreign games seem to be in your list, always assuring:hope. Out of interest, the Newport County game was my strongest pick, how do they rate on your system?