DavieTips
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Posts posted by DavieTips
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Re: USPGA Championship > August 7th - 10th There's one interesting stat for me ahead of this USPGA Championship that may help pick a winner: - 14 of the last 15 winners of the PGA Championship had won previously that season. As we all know, picking a winner any week is tough. I think it's especially tough for the PGA Championship with the size of the field. But I'm going to use this stat to help guide me in picking a winner this week. I picked outsiders for The Open last month. I'm quite keen on doing so again, but if I do, I would prefer them to have won at some point this season (maybe the likes of Chris Kirk, Harris English, Patrick Reed) considering the above stat.
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Re: Open Championship > July 17th - 20th
I think I can pretty much wrap this one up now because none of them have any chance of winning. All 5 made the cut but I didn't manage to get a trade on any of them. I'll be looking to back Bradley, Na, Haas and Kirk for the USPGA in August. I've been impressed with all four this season. As for tomorrow, it looks very likely McIlroy will win from this position. There's been plenty of last day drama at The Open in previous years, but at 1.2, McIlroy should finish the job.The biggest problem with The Open is there are so many players at absolutely huge prices and it can be very easy to get sucked into backing too many of them. I've had a look at this market and I found it incredibly difficult to narrow it down to around 5 or 6 selections. To help me, I've considered the below criteria: - Must have at least made one cut in either The Masters or the U.S Open this year. This might not be an essential requirement for some people, but I would prefer my selections to have at least some form in one of the Majors leading up to the Open. I like to look at the players that did well in the U.S Open in particular as that tournament only took place about 5 weeks ago and anyone that shaped up nicely there will most likely still be on their game this week. - How important is experience of links courses and especially Open Championships? For me this is one of the biggest questions going into this week because if you believe that experience is not necessarily key to success, then there are some players who have performed very well this year, especially from the PGA tour that are a huge price and may become quite an attractive back to lay selection. If you look at the previous winners of The Open, there is some contradiction on the importance of links form and experience. For example, there are many repeat winners such as Harrington and Els, but there are also some winners that had next to no form on this type of course or at this level, but they ultimately went on to win. Oosthuizen was not considered as even a likely outsider when he won it in 2010 with Open Championship form that read cut in 2004, cut in 2006 and cut in 2009. Todd Hamilton had made one Open Championship cut in three previous attempts before his win in 2004, and Ben Curtis was the biggest shock winner of arguably any major when he won at odds of 1000/1 at his first attempt playing in the Open in 2003. Experience may be getting overstated this year, and another big priced outsider could have the potential to surprise again this year. - I'm not seeing the value in backing a short priced player here, so I'm staying clear of any player below 50/1. I'm backing to lay this year and I would have to invest heavily in a player below 50/1 to see a decent return with a trade. Of the players around this price, Dustin Johnson, Rickie Fowler and Matt Kuchar appealed the most but I can't justify backing them. If I was to back one of them, they would have to be my sole pick and I would prefer to have my money spread across more than one or two selections. Rickie Fowler at around 80/1 would have been very interesting but that price has well gone. So, here are my picks based on my own criteria above: Keegan Bradley @ 120 on Betfair I missed the 140-150 prices that were available last week for Bradley and I'm hoping he drifts again so that I can back him at a slightly higher price. For now, I've taken a small amount at 120. He's had a very up and down season so far, but he has very obvious claims for this one and I feel he's maybe being overlooked. The joint 4th finish at Greenbrier was encouraging, but it was his top 5 finish at the U.S Open this year that convinces me he can compete at this major. I'm interested in backing him for the final major of the year as well especially considering his excellent record in that tournament but his form at Open Championships is also very good. He's only played twice but finished 34th in 2012 and 15th in 2013. Kevin Na @ 210 on Betfair This is the first of my picks that has very little form at previous Opens, but you'll be hard pressed to find a more consistent player on the PGA Tour and at prices above 200/1, I'll back him for small stakes. I've always doubted whether or not he can compete at Majors despite his consistency on tour, but his 12th place finish at Pinehurst was encouraging and his top 20 finish last week shows he's still in great form heading into this major. Bill Haas @ 240 on Betfair Fairly similar reasons to Na. The price is big for a player of his consistency and recent track record at majors. He made the cut at both the U.S Open and The Masters this year, he's had one missed cut all season and that was the week after The Masters, so it's understandable. Chris Kirk @ 420 on Betfair I'm very much looking for a "Ben Curtis" moment with this pick, but when you consider his two finishes at this year's major's, it's difficult to ignore such a huge price. Joint 20th at the Masters and 28th at the U.S Open. He's never played at the Open Championship before so it will be going into the land of the unknown but he's had a stellar season so far and if he can replicate his major form of this year, I might get a trade. Stewart Cink @ 520 on Betfair This is my final pick and the one at longest odds but it's not necessarily the most speculative. Odds above 500/1 seem like good value on a previous winner of the event especially when you consider that he's not entirely without form. He's now made 11 consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour including at both The Masters and the U.S Open. He went off at 330 on the exchange the year he won The Open. He's now at odds of 520. I'll take a punt and hope to get a small profit from it. All of the above are at big odds, but I backed Dustin Johnson and Rickie Fowler for the U.S Open and despite them playing very well, they never got low enough to give me a trade. It's made me wary of betting on guys at shorter prices. Someone like Mickelson or Rose may go on to win this week, but I think there may be more value in looking at some of the bigger prices and looking for a trade on Betfair. Finally, the weather is something that needs to be mentioned when it comes to links golf. I've stopped trying to base my picks on this point though because the forecasts can often be wrong and it's one of those things which just have to be accepted when it comes to The Open. Thunderstorms are due at the weekend, but Thursday looks to be set up pretty even for all of the players. Good luck with your picks folks! -
Re: Open Championship > July 17th - 20th
Nice one :clap1ST ROUND LEADER. Rory McIlroy 20/1 SJ E/W 6 PLACES Good lad :) -
Re: Open Championship > July 17th - 20th
That's a great little stat!One interesting stat that has been been floating around is that the last 3 winners of the Open at Hoylake were in the Top 5 in the last Open hosted at Royal Birkdale. -
Re: Open Championship > July 17th - 20th The biggest problem with The Open is there are so many players at absolutely huge prices and it can be very easy to get sucked into backing too many of them. I've had a look at this market and I found it incredibly difficult to narrow it down to around 5 or 6 selections. To help me, I've considered the below criteria: - Must have at least made one cut in either The Masters or the U.S Open this year. This might not be an essential requirement for some people, but I would prefer my selections to have at least some form in one of the Majors leading up to the Open. I like to look at the players that did well in the U.S Open in particular as that tournament only took place about 5 weeks ago and anyone that shaped up nicely there will most likely still be on their game this week. - How important is experience of links courses and especially Open Championships? For me this is one of the biggest questions going into this week because if you believe that experience is not necessarily key to success, then there are some players who have performed very well this year, especially from the PGA tour that are a huge price and may become quite an attractive back to lay selection. If you look at the previous winners of The Open, there is some contradiction on the importance of links form and experience. For example, there are many repeat winners such as Harrington and Els, but there are also some winners that had next to no form on this type of course or at this level, but they ultimately went on to win. Oosthuizen was not considered as even a likely outsider when he won it in 2010 with Open Championship form that read cut in 2004, cut in 2006 and cut in 2009. Todd Hamilton had made one Open Championship cut in three previous attempts before his win in 2004, and Ben Curtis was the biggest shock winner of arguably any major when he won at odds of 1000/1 at his first attempt playing in the Open in 2003. Experience may be getting overstated this year, and another big priced outsider could have the potential to surprise again this year. - I'm not seeing the value in backing a short priced player here, so I'm staying clear of any player below 50/1. I'm backing to lay this year and I would have to invest heavily in a player below 50/1 to see a decent return with a trade. Of the players around this price, Dustin Johnson, Rickie Fowler and Matt Kuchar appealed the most but I can't justify backing them. If I was to back one of them, they would have to be my sole pick and I would prefer to have my money spread across more than one or two selections. Rickie Fowler at around 80/1 would have been very interesting but that price has well gone. So, here are my picks based on my own criteria above: Keegan Bradley @ 120 on Betfair I missed the 140-150 prices that were available last week for Bradley and I'm hoping he drifts again so that I can back him at a slightly higher price. For now, I've taken a small amount at 120. He's had a very up and down season so far, but he has very obvious claims for this one and I feel he's maybe being overlooked. The joint 4th finish at Greenbrier was encouraging, but it was his top 5 finish at the U.S Open this year that convinces me he can compete at this major. I'm interested in backing him for the final major of the year as well especially considering his excellent record in that tournament but his form at Open Championships is also very good. He's only played twice but finished 34th in 2012 and 15th in 2013. Kevin Na @ 210 on Betfair This is the first of my picks that has very little form at previous Opens, but you'll be hard pressed to find a more consistent player on the PGA Tour and at prices above 200/1, I'll back him for small stakes. I've always doubted whether or not he can compete at Majors despite his consistency on tour, but his 12th place finish at Pinehurst was encouraging and his top 20 finish last week shows he's still in great form heading into this major. Bill Haas @ 240 on Betfair Fairly similar reasons to Na. The price is big for a player of his consistency and recent track record at majors. He made the cut at both the U.S Open and The Masters this year, he's had one missed cut all season and that was the week after The Masters, so it's understandable. Chris Kirk @ 420 on Betfair I'm very much looking for a "Ben Curtis" moment with this pick, but when you consider his two finishes at this year's major's, it's difficult to ignore such a huge price. Joint 20th at the Masters and 28th at the U.S Open. He's never played at the Open Championship before so it will be going into the land of the unknown but he's had a stellar season so far and if he can replicate his major form of this year, I might get a trade. Stewart Cink @ 520 on Betfair This is my final pick and the one at longest odds but it's not necessarily the most speculative. Odds above 500/1 seem like good value on a previous winner of the event especially when you consider that he's not entirely without form. He's now made 11 consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour including at both The Masters and the U.S Open. He went off at 330 on the exchange the year he won The Open. He's now at odds of 520. I'll take a punt and hope to get a small profit from it. All of the above are at big odds, but I backed Dustin Johnson and Rickie Fowler for the U.S Open and despite them playing very well, they never got low enough to give me a trade. It's made me wary of betting on guys at shorter prices. Someone like Mickelson or Rose may go on to win this week, but I think there may be more value in looking at some of the bigger prices and looking for a trade on Betfair. Finally, the weather is something that needs to be mentioned when it comes to links golf. I've stopped trying to base my picks on this point though because the forecasts can often be wrong and it's one of those things which just have to be accepted when it comes to The Open. Thunderstorms are due at the weekend, but Thursday looks to be set up pretty even for all of the players. Good luck with your picks folks!
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Re: World Cup 2014 > Outright Betting
The player of the tournament bet is more wide open that I would have imagined. If you had told me before the start of the tournament that Argentina would get to the final, I would have had Messi as odds on to win this award, but despite him being pretty good so far and instrumental to Argentina's success, I think Argentina will need to go on and beat Germany for him to win the player of the tournament now. He's still odds against at 11/8. For me, the player that's emerged as a real possibility for player of the tournament is Toni Kroos. He's available at 20/1 with some bookies but was as big as 66/1 with Skybet immediately after the Germany v Brazil game, which was a ludicrously big price considering he was man of the match in that 7-1 drubbing. Muller still has a chance of winning it, but there are a couple of other players from Germany that could yet win it if they lift the World Cup, including Manuel Neuer, who looks a near certainty to also win the golden glove award.Winner and Top scorer doubles Germany and Muller 3/1 paddy power Top goalscorer Thomas Muller 5/2 paddy power Player of the tournament Thomas Muller 3/1 paddy power i think that Muller is at his best in the big occassions and the world cup final is the biggest you can get and he only needs one more goal and could get it against a average Argentina side -
Re: World Cup 2014 > Outright Betting
Did you use the same internet connection? I'm pretty sure most bookmakers track IP addresses, so that would explain the limit on the other account too. Well done on the big win last season by the way :clapello all, First time poster here. Firstly, i apologize for posting this in the wrong thread but i couldn't find an appropiate thread for this query. So, i have had a paddy power account for a couple of year's now, no problems. Won a few quid over the years but nothing amazing, probably doesn't even amount to a e1000, in total really. Last year i opened a Bet365 account and soon after discovered the season outright accum bet type. I never knew these existed and so i chanced one.. e20 on 12 teams, payed out e15000 there in may.. happy days.. Now, the new season is upon us already so i decided i'll chance another this year. This time on my PaddyPower account, E200 stake this time, 8 teams, pays E100,000, (was E104,674 but was limited to E100,000 shortly after, the guy from customer care said 'dont worry, your bet's still good' just something about their traders limit the bet or something) So, my mum decides she doesn't want to miss out this year if i pull it off again and asks me to open a Paddy Power account for her, uses her own debit card too. i do this off my laptop and do the exact same bet. she never gambles, never. I do all this yesterday, my bet and hers, on my own pp account and her pp account. No problem i thought, no big deal. did both bets, however, today on my account i noticed my pp account seems to have been limited now. The stakes i can place have been limited it seems to e12 or so, which is strange. My accum btw consists of 1. Man utd (top 4) 2.Barca o/r 3. derby county (Promotion) 4. Peterborough (Promotion) 5. Juve o/r 6. Aberdeen w/o celtic 7. G. Rangers o/r 8. Monaco (top 3 finish) The weird thing now with my account also is , if i try to bet on any three of aberdeen, derby or peterborough from that accum in either another accum or single bet, it reads 'max bet exceeded'?? but the other teams from the accum are fine for me to bet on if i wish?? All this is exactly the same with my mums account too. I will not now place any more bets with Paddy Power but could someone on here please shed some light on this for me anyway? I suppose i would really like to know that if these two accums do come off for mum and myself, will PP pay out? That would be sickening to think you've won 100k each only to find out different. Do they think im rocking multiple accounts or something? Sorry about the awful long post and prob in the wrong place too but this is really bugging me now Thank you -
Re: Quarter-Final - Argentina v Belgium > Saturday July 5th Well done to Argentina backers. Commiserations to Belgium backers. Another poor game. The exciting matches of the group stages seem like a long time ago now.
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Re: Last 16 - Argentina v Switzerland > Tuesday July 1st Back Both Teams to Score @ 2.0 on Betfair Switzerland and Argentina have both scored in all three of their group games, whilst also looking very unconvincing at the back. The only clean sheets that either team managed in their group games were against Iran, who came close on a number of occasions on the counter, and Honduras, who have scored one World Cup goal in over 30 years. Switzerland shipped five against France, which doesn't really bode well when coming up against Messi and co. I don't really expect Switzerland to sit as deep as Iran did. They've generally been well organised under Hitzfield, but their defence has looked shaky so far in this World Cup. Argentina's defence is well known to be its weak point. The fact that they conceded two against Nigeria makes me think Switzerland can score at least one against them, especially with Shaqiri coming off the back of a very impressive hat-trick against Honduras. My only concern is the 1pm starting time. Hopefully, it's not too hot and humid. Good luck folks!
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Re: COSTA RICA OUTRIGHT...TRADING HELP PLEASE
John, had Mexico gone through, it would have been a different story. Unfortunately, Costa Rica now play the Netherlands and there isn't a lot of confidence that Costa Rica will get much further. Costa Rica looked pretty average against Greece. If they had played like they did against Italy or Uruguay, their price might have been smaller. Best of luck with your bet. You'll need it.i wouldnt take a job as an odds compiler if i were you. -
Re: No Data Received When Trying to View Posts
All sorted now Paul. Thanks buddy.Should be ok now. :ok -
Hi, I don't know if anyone else is having this problem. I can log in. But I can't view individual posts. It comes up with "No data received" when using Chrome as my browser. I tried using Firefox and also got an error message. When I log out, I can view posts, but only as much as non-registered people can see. The ironic thing is that I won't be able to view any replies to this post either, which will make finding a solution difficult.
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Re: Last 16 - Colombia v Uruguay > Saturday June 28th Back Draw/Colombia HT/FT @ 5.4 on Betfair I'm taking it easy in this last round of 16. Most of the games are relatively close including this one. There's not a huge amount of value in the match odds or under/over market in my opinion, so I'm looking elsewhere for a decent bet. Draw at half time and Colombia to have won the game at full time at over 4/1 stuck out to me. Here's my reasoning: - 9 of Colombia's last 11 goals at the World Cup have been scored in the second half. They've scored 2 goals in the first half of games in this World Cup, 1 of them being a penalty kick. They've scored 7 in the second half of games. - Uruguay have only scored 2 goals in the first half of games at this year's World Cup as well, with one of them being a penalty in their first game against Costa Rica and the other coming from Suarez right at the end of the half against England (he'll obviously not be playing tonight). I expect them to be quite defensive against Colombia at the start with very much a cautious approach. Much like the game against Italy, where they were happy enough to keep things tight early on despite knowing only a win was good enough to see them through. - I think Colombia will ultimately prove too strong and come out with the win after 90 minutes. If you take the scoreline of the second half of their 3 games so far, it reads: 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 all in their favour. In contrast, Uruguay's second half scorelines read: 0-3 (Costa Rica), 1-1 (England), 1-0 (Italy). That one and only positive scoreline in the second half of a game came when Italy had been reduced to 10 men. Italy had to play 30 minutes of that second half 10 against 11. So, that will be my only bet for tonight. Small stakes, but at 5.4, I thought it was decent value, especially in a tournament where we're seeing many games being tight in the first half, then come alive in the second. Good luck folks.
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Re: Group E - Honduras v Switzerland > Wednesday June 25th Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.3 with Betfair This could prove to be quite a cagey match in my opinion. I can understand why over 2.5 goals is favourite. Both games that these two teams have played have finished over 2.5. But I think there's quite a strong case for unders: - Honduras just don't score too many goals. Their goal against Ecuador was their first World Cup goal in 32 years. They're not a team that's set up to attack. They're a physical team who rely on good organisation and a resolute defence to sneak out wins. Their pre season friendly against England and their loss to France showed how lacking they are when going forward. If you're backing overs here, you're quite reliant on Switzerland producing the goals and so backing something like 3-0 or 4-0 to Switzerland seems like a better option to me if you fancy goals. - But Switzerland are not exactly a free flowing attacking team either. 8 of their 10 World Cup Qualifying games produced under 2.5 goals. They averaged 1.7 goals per game in that campaign and despite looking poor at the back in this world Cup, they only conceded 6 goals in qualification, 4 of them coming in the one match in a freak game against Iceland. So, that's a total of 2 goals conceded in 9 qualifying matches. - I think you have to consider motivations as well and where these teams are placed. There's no real need for Switzerland to go gung ho. At least not at the start of the game. Events between France and Ecuador might change that, but a draw might be good enough to see Switzerland through. If France beat Ecaudor (currently 1.73 to do so on Betfair) then a draw will see Switzerland through. Honduras will need a minor miracle to qualify and I doubt they're going to go all out to do so. As said before, they're just not a team with the attacking talent to really stand a chance of qualifying on goal difference. If under 2.5 goals was odds on, I would think twice. But at 2.3, I think that's more than fair.
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Re: COSTA RICA OUTRIGHT...TRADING HELP PLEASE
your right about the 2.4' date='im tempted to lay them £20 so i win 20 if they go out if they win obviously i lose a bit but thyre odds will shorten,anyone have a rough idea what price they may be if they get to the quarter finals??[/quote'] If they get through to the quarter finals (something which is a lot more likely now that they play Greece in the round of 16), they'll probably play the Netherlands. In the semi final, they'll likely play Argentina. Then the final could be one of Germany, France, Brazil or one of the other less fancied teams from that side of the draw. So, the odds are likely going to still be very high. You could probably take the time to work it out, but I would guess odds of around 40 on Betfair. -
Re: COSTA RICA OUTRIGHT...TRADING HELP PLEASE
John, I would just keep the bet running through to the quarter finals. They're currently 2.4 to reach that stage so they have a pretty decent chance of getting that far. Re-asses it at that point in my opinion. It would be a great trade from a percentage standpoint right now, but in my opinion not worth it for £40. Let's just say that Costa Rica got to the final. Yes, it's quite unrealistic but stranger things have happened. How would you feel at that point if you had taken £40 when you had a potential profit of £3000?hi, i backed costa rica outright for £4 at 910 with betfair, so im on over £3000 if they win the world cup,which im pretty sure wont happen,i could trade out now but its only about £40 profit,has anyone got any ideas what to do from here from a trading point of you,they should have columbia or ivory coast in the last 16,would really appreciate any trading advice on how to get the most out of this now,many thanks. -
Re: Argentina v Iran > Saturday June 21st
Outstanding prediction Dan! Hopefully you traded off. Argentina got out to 6/1 before Messi scored.I am laying the Argies here. I know that's madness to most, but so would have been laying Brazil in their last. I don't think they performed well in their last game and at best I think I can cashout with a marginal profit. The Iranian defence is as far as I have read and seen, fairly strong, and I'm hoping that is going to last long enough for me to gain some sort of profit, and tbh at 1.15 on Betfair, a single half of 0-0 could see a decent chance. -
Re: Argentina v Iran > Saturday June 21st The lineups have been announced and Argentina are shaping up similar to the way they started the second half against Bosnia. Higuain starts with Messi and Aguero. Back Over 2.5 Argentina Goals @ 10/11 with Coral Yes, Iran will be ultra defensive and may be difficult to break down initially, but Argentina will score at least 3 in this game in my opinion. The forward line of Argentina would be difficult enough for any defence in the World to handle. The two Iran centre backs play in the Qatar and Iranian leagues respectively. Their goalkeeper plays in the Portuguese second division. They'e coming up against arguably the greatest attack at this World Cup. Argentina have a point to prove especially having received some unfair criticism after their first game against Bosnia. I expect Argentina to win by 3 or 4 goals in this one.
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Re: Argentina v Iran > Saturday June 21st
I have to say I like the look of these bets, JuMe. The penalty bet in particular looks very decent. There's been a fair few penalties at this world Cup already and if Iran are going to sit deep which is very much expected, then Argentina could cause them a lot of problems in the box. The sending off bet is an interesting one. I've found referees to be quite unpredictable in this tournament, especially when it comes to cards. Maybe it's my imagination, but it seems like the refs are more reluctant to give out the yellow card to players, which can make backing the sending off quite frustrating. But good bets and I may follow you on that penalty one.Argentina to score a penalty @ 4.50 (bet365) for a 0.2 stake Red Card @ 3.75 (bet365) for a 0.2 stake Referee is Mirolad Mazic. There you go, all done. In truth honest, Mirolad Mazic did some very bad refereeing in Germany x Portugal, but he didn't have any trouble in pointing to the penalty spot for the favourites. He looks like the referee that benefits the favourites to me: did some harshful decisions against Portugal that day. Didn't look like a good ref as well. Iran were very organized against Nigeria, and I expect them to be even more defensive today. However, individual quality is lacking there, and when Argentina starts to speed up their attacking processes, player might feel the urge to mishit tackles and concede fouls in dangerous positions. Especially Messi and Di Maria are going to be hard to stop, and couldn't grab a penalty anytime. I expect red card and/or Argentina to get a penalty and score to happen, so I'm backing both. -
Re: Argentina v Iran > Saturday June 21st Anyone read anything about the fitness of Higuain? I heard he was a serious doubt for this one.
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Re: FIFA Man of the Match
Here's the rules for voting: http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/awards/man-of-the-match/rules.html It seems like a 100% fan vote, so soundingstylish makes a good point. Maybe think twice before voting for someone that isn't popular or particularly well known. It would also be incredibly tough for any defenders/holding midfielders to win MOTM. For example, Balotelli won for the England v Italy game. I thought Pirlo deserved it.how do the fans vote? by phone? -
Re: Group A - Brazil v Mexico > Tuesday June 17th Two bets for me: A sending off in the match @ 3/1 with William Hill Cüneyt Çak?r likes to control the game using cards. An alternative bet that I quite liked was over 4.5 cards at around 1.9-2.0 with most bookies. But I'll go for the bigger odds and back there to be a sending off. I expect the match to be a little bit tasty. The atmosphere will be immense and both sides know a win essentially sees them through to the knockout round. The sending off bet would have paid out in Cakir's last two competitive International games (European World Cup qualifiers). He also dished out a red at the European Championships in 2012 between Italy and Ireland. Oscar to win FIFA Man of the Match @ 4/1 with BetFred He was the best player on the pitch in the game against Croatia. Neymar won the Man of the Match for his two goals, but I feel Oscar is decent value here at 4/1. The obvious danger to this bet is Neymar but Oscar can get in among the goals as he showed in the last game and could also provide one or two assists tonight.
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Re: US Open > June 12th - 15th Aidy and Ted have already given good write ups and I like the look of their picks. For what it's worth the below is just my opinion on this year's second Major: I think this year's US Open is incredibly open and that makes it very difficult to predict. The following are going to be pretty essential around Pinehurst: 1. Length 2. High Scrambling stats 3. Previous form in Majors, in particular US and British Opens 4. Luck Addressing point 1, if a player is relatively short off the tee, I would forget about them this week. This is going to be a course where length is going to be an advantage (7,500 yards). There's not a lot of rough in this new layout so big hitters will be able to have a go with their driver in order to get into the A1 positions. We all know that Par 5 performance is an essential statistic for every tournament but even more so here because it's going to be a tough course, and par 5's need to be taken advantage of. Point 2; Scrambling is another statistic that is important most weeks, but even more so here. There's going to be many holes where par is a very decent score. Typically US Open courses are set up very tough, so many players will have relatively low GIR stats compared to most weeks on the PGA tour. The ability to get up and down, walk away with par and not take yourself out of the tournament with a high score is going to be important here, so I would focus quite a lot on guys who do well in scrambling. Point 3; If a player doesn't have too much form in any previous US Opens, I would think hard before backing them. If I felt strongly enough about someone who didn't have previous US Open form, I would possibly still include them, but if you look back over previous years, a lot of the same names appear in the top 10/top 25. I guess there are certain players who are well suited to US Open layouts which require a considerable amount of patience. I would also look at players who do well on links courses, so the Open Championship leaderboards from the past few years might be of interest. Almost every player who has been interviewed about Pinehurst has mentioned its similarity to British style links courses and I thought that was quite interesting. If you search Youtube, there's a lot of videos from the current players talking about the course. Point 4; This year, more than any other, will require a considerable amount of luck in my opinion. It will be luck that will determine if you've got a shot into the green after missing the fairway. It could be a matter of inches that will determine if you need to lay up or if you can go for it. Again, I would advise people to watch those videos on Youtube where the likes of Furyk, Mahan and McDowell mention this point. The weather is also going to be a big factor at this year's US Open. Thunderstorms are due on Thursday and Friday according to the most recent forecast with sunshine at the weekend. Depending on tee times and delays, some of these guys might get a very different layout compared to others. If the course softens up, length becomes an even bigger factor. So, having said all that, below are my selections for this week. I'm always stuck on whether or not to just go with the one guy or to spread my stake across a few. The temptation is there to always have a few runners to cheer for, so that's what I'm going to do again: Dustin Johnson @ 38 Betfair I had to decide on Johnson or Bubba Watson. Both are 1 and 2 respectively for driving distance average on the PGA Tour. I've went for Johnson because he has a slightly better US Open record. He led after three rounds back in 2010 and did reasonably well in 2011 and 2013 (2012 missed cut). His game seems to be coming together. It's been a bit of an up and down season for him and that can be reflected in individual rounds as well. It's not been uncommon to see him eagle and birdie plenty of holes recently, but somewhat more worrying has been the few double bogeys that creep into his game now and again. Last week's St. Jude classic was a perfect example. He had 3 days of very good steady golf (Days 1, 2 and 4). But the third day started with a couple of double bogeys which took him out of contention completely. I'm hoping that his three top 25 finishes in his last four on tour are a good omen and he puts his driving to good use this week. Bubba obviously has every chance, but my main concern with him is his scrambling ability here and his recent US Open record isn't spectacular. Charl Schwartzel @ 65 Betfair Often overlooked, but a very consistent player. The 2011 Masters Champion has the following results in his past 4 starts in the U.S: T8, T11, T48 and T12. His recent record for the U.S Open is also very steady: 14, T38, T9, T16. He averages 297 yards off the tee and his scrambling percentage is reasonably impressive at around 60%. The only negative was his recent appearance at Wentworth where he had a 75 followed by a shocking 78. That would have been enough to put me off picking him, but he's bounced back well since his return to the PGA Tour. The value might have went out of this pick a little because he was available at bigger prices last week (around 75 on Betfair) so it might be worth waiting until Wednesday or Thursday morning when everyone piles on the favourites and guys like Schwartzel might drift in the market. Rickie Fowler @ 95 Betfair He had a good finish last week at the St. Jude Classic. He finished in the top 10 at last year's U.S Open and seems to have the right mentality for Major Championships despite him being only 25 years old. He has similar driving distance and scrambling stats to Schwartzel at just under 300 yards and around 60% respectively. His price is around 94-1 on Betfair and that seems fair to me. He might be a little inspired after seeing his good friend, Ben Crane win last week. Jamie Donaldson @ 150 Betfair He's only had one appearance at the U.S Open. It came last year and he finished in a respectable 32nd place. He averages around 293 yards from the tee on the European Tour, but his most impressive statistic is his scrambling. He ranks 3rd overall on the European Tour for scrambling at 64%. I was quite surprised at how short some of the European Tour players were for the U.S Open but I'll take Donaldson at those prices. I think he has the right mentality to make an impression at this year's U.S Open. I think he would benefit from conditions being relatively difficult. If the winning score is near or around level par, I don't think Donaldson will be too far away. So those are my picks. I'm not investing too much this week as it is a notoriously difficult Major to get right, but hopefully one or two of the above will give me a run for my money. Good luck with your picks!
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Re: Copa America > 3rd/4th & Final > 23/24 July Recommendation: Back Diego Lugano to score anytime at 12/1 with WilliamHill Paraguay are difficult to beat and have shown plenty of heart in this tournament to suggest that they won't go down easy to Uruguay. Uruguay are undoubtedly the better team and the temptation is to back them at odds of around evens, but I can't find much value in that price and so will look at other markets for some value. My initial impression on the under/over line is that unders is more likely, but after having looked at the market, 1.5 is just impossible to back, especially when you consider the dangerous attacking men that both teams possess. I am therefore backing Diego Lugano to score at anytime. The Uruguay captain has looked consistently dangerous from set pieces in this Copa America and has been unlucky not to have scored. Paraguay, like most South American teams, can be vulnerable when defending set pieces and Forlan is one of the best at delivering a great cross from a dead ball situation. Therefore, Lugano's odds of 12-1 are of decent value in my opinion.
UEFA Champions League Qualifiers > August 26th & 27th
in Champions League Predictions
Posted
Re: UEFA Champions League Qualifiers > August 26th & 27th A big night for many clubs. My tip is focusing on the Celtic v Maribor game tonight: Back Virgil Van Dijk and/or Jason Denayer to score anytime Celtic's main threat may well be from set pieces rather than open play. 4 of their 6 goals against Dundee United in their first home league game of the season came via this method. They don't have a plethora of outstanding striking options and this is an area where they have been desperately looking for improvement during this transfer window. Kris Commons, Celtic's main goalscoring threat of last season, doesn't look to be on the best of terms with the new manager Ronny Deila by all accounts and doesn't seem to be in his starting 11. It would be a surprise to me if he started tonight. Anthony Stokes and Leigh Griffiths are Celtic's other main striking options together with new summer signing Jo Inge Berget. None of these players are what you would call "penalty box strikers". They like to come out wide and drop deeper to retrieve the ball. Assuming Maribor's defence is well organised, it may be difficult for Celtic to break them down. But it is at set pieces where Celtic may excel. They have many threats that could cause problems at free kicks and corners for Maribor. The two players I think you should focus on are Virgil Van Dijk and Jason Denayer. Both players are big, physical centre backs and a huge threat at set pieces. Not just in the air but when the ball is on the ground as well. These two players are what you would maybe call "modern" centre backs in the mould of Vincent Kompany (obviously not quite as good as him). In fact, they might not just be a threat from set pieces but also from open play as both like to wander forward. If anyone seen the first leg of this game, they would have seen Van Dijk come very close with a great shot from distance. I've deliberately not put the odds of these players up in the initial tip because I think their odds are still a little short with the bookies. You can get 7/1 on Van Dijk and around 9/1 on Denayer. Denayer looks the slightly better value at those prices as he scored on his debut from a corner against Dundee United (in fact he was first goalscorer). But, I'm hoping the exchanges (Betfair or Betdaq) will offer much better odds that these for anytime goalscorer, so it might be worth holding off to see what prices are on offer later in the day. Finally, regarding the outcome of the game and over/unders, I'm failing to see much value in either market. Celtic are generally around 1.6. That seems fair. Celtic should win this game, but if Maribor are well organised and are able to break on the counter, they could cause some serious problems. I would lean toward overs but I wouldn't be entirely confident on it. Celtic should score at least one against a generally weaker opponent and in front of a full house at Celtic Park (at the time of writing Celtic have sold over 50,000 tickets). But who would back Celtic to keep a clean sheet against any opponent right now? Maribor troubled Celtic at times in the first leg and scored far too easily. There's also a train of thought which says Maribor may be more dangerous away from home as their counter attacking style may be more suited to that. I'm going to wait on the team list before backing denayer or Van Dijk to score. They should be the starting centre backs, but it's not 100%. Also, don't consider Celtic's last result against Inverness as any sort of barometer because they made 10 changes to their starting line up from the Maribor 1st leg game. You can generally ignore it as a form line in my opinion. Good luck with your bets.