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Don Gamble

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Posts posted by Don Gamble

    Jump racing thread - Sat 4th Sept

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Jump racing thread - Sat 4th Sept

    425: This will be a fast run race and i just fancy it will suit something coming from the back late on. A reasonably unexposed type in Nether Stream could go well at a big price. Caught my eye when staying on too late behind Pure Faith, now that was a much weaker race but again ran well when fourth here later on, last time you can ignore when he got rid of an amateur jockey, Aidan Coleman is onboard today and will bide his time at the rear and hopefully pick a few off with his very light weight. It may be too much of a rise in class but at 22/1 its tempting to get involved. Selection; 425 Str: Nether Stream EW (22/1 Sp Bet)
    :nana:nana:nana:nana:nana Brilliant stuff.

    Haydock - 29th May

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Haydock - 29th May

    4.45 Haydock Wow. What a race this looks, and most of the classy staying handicappers are turned out in this two mile contest. Crackentorp is a horse I rate rate highly, he placed at the Dante meeting, but there looks be better value today, especially in the case of DAYIA. Jeff Pearce is deemed unfashionable, which probably explains why his runner is a massive price, despite finishing a tremendous fourth in the Cesarewitch last season. Although the stats show he is yet to win over this far, he definately has the stamina for the trip and eased 1 lb having finished behind an enterprisingly ridden winner last time, he looks oustanding value at 25/1. 25/1 William Hill, EW
    FANTASTIC:clap:clap:clap:clap

    Ripon 25th May

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Ripon 25th May

    KATHLATINO 4.40 Ripon. 1 point win. The little bit of rain that's come will suit this one better and I think improvement can be seen. A big price now that the ground has eased and should be involved in the finish.
    I like this one as well, nice price on Betfair.

    Ripon 25th May

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Ripon 25th May

    3.40 Ripon BENCOOLEN ran no sort of race after rearing at the start when seen here forty days ago but the run may have served to blow away a few cobwebs and the horses' inconsistent nature means another no show may not necessarily follow here. He is a classy handicapper when on song, winning in this grade at Glorious Goodwood last season and running well upped in grade at Ascot thereafter. Like many horses he couldn't get into contention in the Cambridgeshire but he acts on this ground and has a fair record over a mile. Off Chance is without a shadow of a doubt the one they have to beat here but the prices has gone and Bencoolen is my alternative. 25/1 SJ
    Nice tip Fin, I got 11 on the place on betfair. :clap:clap:clap

    Ripon 25th May

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Ripon 25th May

    14:40 Ripon 14 runners go to post for this race and it looks like a fairly wide open contest. I'm going to take a chance with one of the least exposed horses in the race with Northern Acres from the Dandy Nicholls yard. The horse is still a maiden after only 5 runs to date so he is still lightly raced. He was gelded before making a reappearance at Musselburgh over 9 furlongs LTO. Was well backed that day but went off too fast and was well beaen back in 7th place. Has been dropped 3lbs for that effort, Billy Cray takes off 5lbs and he takes a drop in class today which should all benefit the horse and could see him spring a surprise here. 0.5pts E/W Northern Acres @ 16/1 (Stan James - BOG)
    Brilliant, I backed it because of your tip.:clap:clap:clap In the 3.40 I also like 3 of the horses mentioned, might stick them in a cheeky rfc - rtc. Ordoney, Bencoolen, Reel buddy star

    Ripon 25th May

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Ripon 25th May Ripon 3.10 A difficult race to assess, where none of the runners have competed over today's trip of 9 furlongs. There are two horses I like though who look like they may be overpriced. The first is Jupiter Fidius who ran a stinker last time out at Doncaster (30 Apr), but did put in a nice effort the race before at this track (8f Gd 15 Apr 10) finishing a neck behind the useful Eleanora Duse, and 1.5 lengths behind the winner Monterosso. Both of those horses have gone on to more impressive runs, and if that race is a fair representation of this horses ability, I can see it going close today. It's best speed rating was recorded in the race previous to that at Leicester (Gd/Sft Gd pl) back in Oct 09, and it might be my biggest concern that this horse likes a bit of cut in the ground. It's also the top weight. The other I like at a nice price is Vito Volterra who managed to win 3 times out of 6 runs in 2009. Really solid on the clock, with 3 of it's last 6 runs rating 64, and one at 63. Has won on Gd/Sft and Gd/Frm as well as on artificial, so seems capable on all surfaces. Also It's handicap rating is dropped again after a close up 4th (1l) in it's last race. I feel both of these horses could appreciate the step up in trip. I'll also mention Yashrid who makes it's handicap debut and could of been allocated a decent mark. Will include it for RFC and RTC purposes, I've not decided yet whether I'll back it to win. I could make a case for a few of these, particularly Mighty Clarets and Music Of The Moor, but I'm going to stick with the speed ratings, and the 3 top rated. Jupiter Fidius, Vito Volterra, Yashrid 1pt Reverse F/C + 1 pt Reverse T/C = 12pts Win + e/w bets and prices to follow. Ripon 3-10 Handicap (Class 4) 10f Horse Best Lto 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Jupiter Fidius 73 -- 51 73 46 -- -- Vito Volterra 64 64 (33) (64) (63) (53) 64 Yashrid 60 60 57 (54) -- -- -- Epic 59 41 (36) (32) (41) (47) (40) LTO Speed: Vito Volterra 64 Yashrid 60 Mighty Clarets 53

    BBOTD Sat ,22nd May

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Sat ,22nd May Star Prospect 0.5pt e/w 66/1 Blue square Don't know what to say about this, apart from it might have a chance of getting a place. A lot of newcomers, no real experience in the race, if it improves on it's first run who know's. Bit of a shot in the dark this. Probably fancy Break Serve and Ulzana more to beat the favourite, just attracted to the price. Lingfield 8-00 Maiden (Class 5) 8f Horse Best Lto 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Azimuth 82 82 -- -- -- -- -- Break Serv 76 76 -- -- -- -- -- Ulzana 53 53 -- -- -- -- -- Star Prospect 42 42 -- -- -- -- -- LTO Speed: Azimuth 82 Break Serve 76 Ulzana 53

    Haydock 21st May

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Haydock 21st May

    Christopher Wren 8.30 Haydock I really fancied this horse recently at Epsom when we were there on the PL race day. I backed it at 12's on course and in the last ten mins or so before the off the horse got really well backed into around 13-2. That was a 9f race off a rating of 75 with Robert Winston on board. Goes off 75 again tonight but over 1m2f and now has 5lb claimer Kieren Fox on board. Formline reads 3-11-3-1-11. The 1st time it was 11th it stumbled at the start losing any chance of winning and raced at the back of the field. The two times it was 3rd it just looks to have been outpaced and possibly in need of further yet it did win over 1m on good to soft ground and was staying on at the end of that race. Last time out it is hard to tell if it didn't like the ground or just didn't take to the track at Epsom. It travelled well for a long way and raced quite prominently, I was hopeful of an effort but it just faded away as they came down the hill, never really travelling at that point and was then crowded out and eased for the final furlong, finishing 2nd last but I felt that was not a true reflection of the horses ability and give it another chance tonight off what I feel is a massive price at 18-1. I think the course will suit more, the step up in trip will suit and the 5lb claim is another plus, it won well off a 69 rating. Some of the field don't look very good so with 9 runners and the race paying 3 places I would advise taking the 18-1 each way with VCBet. 5pts EW Christopher Wren 18-1 VC Bet
    Your on fire. Thankyou :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy

    Chepstow Friday 21st May

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Chepstow Friday 21st May

    A third pick in the 3.10!!!
    Looks a tough race to crack, these are the speed ratings (Lawrence Taylor ATR) if anyone's interested/hasn't seen them. I think the three outsiders might have a chance at a good price. Might do a RFC on Our Picadilly and Triple Dream as well as back some singles. Chepstow 3-10 Handicap (Class 3) 5f Horse Best Lto 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Our Piccadilly 101 84 81 (82) (84) 101 -- Triple Dream 101 85 92 65 101 94 -- Mythical Blue 99 -- 75 99 -- -- -- Sharpened Edge 96 (52) 65 -- 96 -- -- LTO Speed: Hajoum 97 Triple Dream 85 Captain Carey 85

    Best Bet of the Day 20/5

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best Bet of the Day 20/5 Premium Charge Southwell 4.25 A tricky little race to figure out with a couple of lightly raced horses running that I quite fancy. Anyway I'm gonna plump for the outsider who seems to do it's best running at this track. It's won twice, and come second out of it's 3 runs here, albeit at a lower class than this. It's speed ratings for those 3 races read 80, 78, 80 respectively, with Soul heaven recording an 88 last time out and Caponi a 71 for it's only run. May well stick all 3 in F/C and T/C. I think Southwell can be a bit of a specialist track, so I'm going to go for a horse I know like's it round here. As I'm playing catch up I should probably go for the win, but I'll play it safe and go 0.5pt e/w @sp

    Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 - Final Profit +127.57 pts

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010

    No probs Don. I need to look at doing a few more forecasts this season as the possibility of winning big for small stakes appeals a lot.
    Yeah I tend to do them quite a lot. I think they can give a real boost to your profits when they hit, and like you say they don't have to cost much to put them on. Though I've never worked out though whether I would be more profitable if I invested that money directly on the horses to win. I doubt it T/C are even more satisfying.

    Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 - Final Profit +127.57 pts

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010

    Im glad you did the RFC as well as the exacta as the former paid three times as much didnt it!
    Yeah, was bit gutted when I saw the the exacta price, but got money matched at 220 on betfair, so shouldn't complain. Still not sure what made me make the bet twice? I also had a reverse exacta on Water Gypsy and Lathaat in the race before, for some reason decided to save money by leaving out Nimue from the equation.:wall Anyway thanks again, great tipping as always.
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