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NGS

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    NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline The 13.50 panned out pretty much as expected but nobody was tempted to take low odds about Spic n Span - he lead and went a clear but never went lower than 4.0, he did however keep on quite well and came 3rd beaten less than half a length. 14.50 at Wolves 8 points in the Betfair place market on the Winged Assassin at 4.5. This horse has been off the track for over a year so realistically anything could happen but I still think this a great bet. He is trained by Shaun Lycett who seems to be underrated and based on past stats the lack of money for the horse isn't a negative. The jockey booking (Robert Tart) is interesting and doesn't suggest the horse is only running for the exercise. Robert Tart has ridden on the A/W 6 times for this trainer and has had one win - that was a 5/2 favourite. However, 4 of those 6 have been placed - 2 of which went off at 33/1. The trainer is also profitable with horses coming off extended breaks. Not to consider the horse - he has won or been placed 5 times in 10 runs at the course and has 4 times finished one place outside the places. 4.5 seems like a steal. :hope

    NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline Been away for a while. Updating from the last days bets the Bank is now 94.81. Have looked at the 13.50 at Wolves, can't find the winner but going for a back to lay on Spic n Span. I've backed it on the Betfair win market at 5.9 for 8 points, going to then have "Keep in Play" lays 8 points at 3.2 (which if it is matched means I cannot lose) and then lay again at 1.8 for 10 points - if that bet is matched I winn come out on top whatever happens thereafter. The thinking is that Spic n Span is a front runner with a decent draw (drawn 2), there is no other out and out front runner in the field and I would be very surprised if the horses drawn 1 and 3 (Slately Hen and Russian Bullet gave him any competition at all for the lead). On the last couple of runs Spic and Span has in all likelihood gone off too fast. 2 runs ago he went 4 lengths clear in a claimer before being pipped at the line and lto he went a couple of lengths clear with one other horse, the other horse (an 8/1 shot) faded very badly and Spic n Span was overhauled but still kept on. NGS

    NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline 16.50 at Chepstow Not keen on Black Truffle and I think Baltic Gin may be a completely different horse on firm ground. So, laying Black truffle on Betfair place market 3 points at 2.58 (risking 4.74 points)and backing Baltic Gin in the Betfair place market 2.90 points at 5.4 The bottom line with all that being if Black Truffle doesn't hit the places then at worst I'll come out even. NGS NGS

    NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline 15.20 8 points win on Musikhani to win at 2.90 on Betfair. I fancy him to come on from his last run and on pedigree and trainer stats should like the course. The one I don't like is Flashheart - he may well improve and could well win but not convinced he will be suited to the course and the trainers horses running 1st time out this year have yet to do well. NGS

    NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline Sharp and Smart was well backed and one with a bit on hand. Frozen over made late headway to sneak 3rd so both bets won. 19.40 at Chepstow No recent form and little backclass but going for Tooley Woods in the Betfair place market 4 points at 2.48 in the Betfair place market. However, Jockey, Trainer, Sire and Damsire are all positives at this course and LTO he raced keen, was raced wide without much effort to give him any cover and his jockey didn't seem overly determined in the straight. His trainer has no other runners at the course tonight and I would hope they will be going all out tonight. In all the circumstances I would hope he can finish in the 1st 4 tonight. NGS

    NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline Eastward Ho came 7th of 10 so successful lay there. Bank now 94.21. Chepstow 7.10 I like the top 2 in the market here. Just going to go for both in the place market on Betfair - Frozen Over - 4 points at 2.04 Sharp and Smart - 4 points at 2.00 Need both to come good to make a profit but if only one hits the places would only make a small loss. I really cannot see them both disappointing. NGS

    NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline 1.24 points down on the day yesterday. Bank now 91.31 15.20 Pontefract Looked at this race in a fair bit of detail and reasons to like quite a few. The only one I really can't have is Eastward Ho. Don't think the ground and course will see him to best effect. So 3 point place lay on Betfair at 4.0 - Risking 9.0 to win 2.90 NGS

    NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline Won some back at last! King of Jazz never in danger of winning but sneaked 3rd. Something was not right with Galicean he was eased off earlyish and came last. Swiss Cross came 5th. Karam Albaari and Princess of Orange came 6th and 7th respectively, Princess of Orange having missed the start did fairly well. Bayleyf came 2nd last. NGS

    NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline 3.40 at Yarmouth Galician is the favourite and I'm not keen on him, I suspect he was seen to best effect last time out and offers no value. I don't like Swiss Cross - he seems to be best at Epsom. I've put 7 points on King of Jazz in the Betfair place market at 2.00. He has a good draw and was better than the bare result LTO. He has a poor win record and whilst I think that may be nothing more than bad luck I'm not going to back him to win. The interesting horses are all at the bottom of the market. I would not be surprised to see Princess of Orange, Bayleyf or Karam Albaari hit the places at big prices - they could equally run shockers but they all seem to have ability if ready for their seasonal debut. NGS

    NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline Another loser - jockey almost seemed keen to find trouble. Bit unlucky and came 5th - wouldn't have won but might have got a place. One last try for tonight - Newcastle 8.20 Boxing Shadows - 6 points win and 6 points place on Betfair at 8.6 and 2.54 respectively. Should like the conditions, decent draw and lacl of stand outs in the field. NGS

    NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline 4.35 at Beverly Fancy Dolphin Village - 14 points win at 7/2 with Paddy Power - should improve for firm ground and this is easier than what he faced LTO. On the other hand the favourite Nine Iron is switching from A/W and fancy he is not the same horse on good to firm ground based on his Damsire and his one run on that ground. NGS

    NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline Cheers for your message Cowan. I do normally start to doubt horses as they get older but didn't know those specific stats. I sometimes get drawn into backing the older ones because they do pop up at big prices from time to time but as you say its about picking the right ones. I considered 12 year old Eijjaaz in the 4.45 at Catterick but decided against it - he then came 2nd, beaten a head at 20-1. He did have the low draw though! Bank now 145.55 NGS [h=2][/h]

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