underdog30
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Posts posted by underdog30
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Re: UEFA Champions League > 27th - 28th April
I really like this bet seeing Barca as you said do not play for corners. They lack the personnel for it - Ibra is the only viable forward playing outlet for such a tactic but he's not a target man in the truest sense. They also have a distinct lack of wingers, and even more so anyone remotely interested in hugging the touchline and then fizzing in a cross. They usually operate instead with more central players in the wider positions who cut in and inter-change freely with the other front three. The Barca team even know this themselves! having watched them alot in the champions league this season, I've lost count of the amount of times their players have found themselves near the corner flag and then passed backwards instead of trying for an easy corner kick. A bit more reassurance for those undecided: in the last two home games Barca played in the Champs League they've had 2 solid victories (4-1 Arsenal, 4-0 Stuttgart) in each they've had 60%+ posession. In other words games that they have well and truely dominated. And yet they could only muster 3-2 corners against Arsenal and a 3-3 draw against Stuttgart. +4.5 (AH) corner handicap Inter (2.0 @ Bet365)represents the best bet of the night in my opinion. ;)Inter Milan + 4.5 AH Corner Handicap @ 2 - Bet365. Barcelona aren't a side that strictly play for corners all the time. They are more likely to cut inside, or try to find the killer pass. Basically, I think this line is far too high, and the straight win odds slightly too short. Inter haven't lost a - 4.5 CH against anyone away from home in the CL. That stat may not be important because of the way this fixture will play out. Barcelona are heavy favourites, and rightly so. Just because a side is favourited, doesn't automatically mean they will win a huge corner handicap. -
Re: UEFA Europa League 22nd April I see Fulham doing what they usually do here, absorbing a lot of the pressure and then making a counter when the opponent's out of position. As simple as this explaination makes it sound - they execute it so damn well it's actually quite spectacular to watch at times. Every players knows and plays his role to perfection and the work rate and organisation that they show is nothing short of amazing. Ok, ok enough gushing over the West Londoners for a minute and on to the serious stuff - these guys have been brilliant at corner handicaps in this competition so far. The way they play allows the opposition more time in their half and racks up the corners in their favour, of course though this tends to best work when the opposition have good attacking wide players. Having only watched a couple of games from the German league this season though I'm in no position as of yet to make a solid prediction - but am leaning to placing a decent stake on a -3 Hamburger corner handicap. Would anyone here who follows the German league advise against it?
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Re: UEFA Europa League 8th of April I'm going to have to agree with what others have said already on here, it's probably better to bet in play with these games tonight. That being said the only exception I can see is a corner handicap in the Wolfsburg - Fulham match. I reckon a -3 with the home side is a very good bet, what with Wolfsburg being an extremely attacking minded side who rack up corners especially at home and Fulham usually opting to absorb pressure for large stretches and then countering. I see this match being played largely in Fulham's half tonight. Jase I notice you've gone for the -4 corner handicap - do you think it's worth it for only a 0.1 difference in odds? (Bet365 -4 CH 1.9, Stanjames -3 CH 1.8) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bets Wolfsburg -3 Corner handicap - 1.8 (@Stan James)
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Re: Champions League 31st of March
Arsenal were poor tonight, and Barcelona absolutely dominated as a result. But to be fair, whether through either luck or good defending they kept Barca out for a long while. It was only when Gallas came off and a make shift defender in song came back to replace him that the goals came flooding in. I at least won the Song bet and I should really have betted on more Arsenal players getting booked tonight, not that they were that overly physical but the Barcelona players being very skilled at drawing the fouls.Arsenal to win - 3.25 (BetDaq) :@ Song to be booked - 2.5 (PaddyPower) :loon Arsenal +1 corner handicap - 1.6 (PaddyPower):cry ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ -
Re: Champions League 31st of March Arsenal to win - 3.25 (BetDaq) Song to be booked - 2.5 (PaddyPower) Arsenal +1 corner handicap - 1.6 (PaddyPower) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ I reckon at the odds that the bookies have put on an Arsenal victory represent too good an offer to refuse. At home, with clearly the Arsenal players and indeed manager up for this game - this should be very good contest. Reports indicate that Gallas is back and he'll shore up the defense and allow song to fill his more suited defensive slot in midfield. Vermaellen has been involunatry rested coming up to this and will be back too. Meanwhile Fabregas is a '40%' chance - to me this means pretty much means he's nailed on to play. A bit of pre-match mind games. So we have more than likely a first choice Arsenal side set against a Barcelona that has not looked as invincible as they did last season and missing a key midfield component in Iniesta. They also haven't faired as well away in the Champions League in recent fixtures. My money is on a Home win. Meanwhile, Song to be booked is quite a good bet. He's the midfield enforcer of Arsenal and although he's not a dirty player he can and does put his foot in at times. He also in recent matches has prefected the art of tatical fouling if a particular dangerous situation emerges. Against Spanish opposition his physicality will probably get him carded. I've put a smallish stake on this one. And finally the corner bet, I've decided to go for the +1 Arsenal handicap. I see them getting more at home on a big European night, particularly with the pace that they can employ on the wings. Barcelona however, do not tend to play for the corners if they can help it, they lack the personnel to make the most of the. I've gone for the +1 though just to be on the safe side though.
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Re: Champions League 31st of March
Arsenal last season beat both Utd & Chelsea and only lost once to a top 4 rival. And this is in a season where the majority of Arsenal fans agree was the worst under Wenger entire stewardship. Contrast this with United, who had the worst head to head record against the other Top 4 clubs - they however still won the league. Why? Because a League title depends on consistency above all else - not the relatively few 'show biz' matches against the other big fish. And finally, no I can't agree with you on Arsenal won't win the title in the next few years either. They're actually favourites to win it in my eyes seeing as compared to the other members of the big 3 they won't need the large scale restructuring thanks to aging squads. The only caveat of course, is that they largely retain the team they have now and build on top.I stated the fact they lost to Man U an Chelsea at home already because everyear they seem to be unable to preform and pick up results against the better teams . That is why they wont win title for a couple of years as they can not get results against the better teams . Its not a coincedence it is either the players choke or Arsen Wenger can not get tactics write for these big games we see it every year . -
Re: Champions League 30th of March
A small profit from those results. United obviously had the Chelsea game in mind tonight, they went one goal up rather luckily and were content to sit on the lead. It was basically Rooney up top by himself and maybe one or two players in support. Fortune it would seem mostly favours the brave and Ferguson's conservative tactics cost them in the end - from a Munich side who for the most part were a bit blunt it has to be said. The return leg will be interesting; United will be less cautious, but Munich should have some key players back. And if Robben returns maybe he can provide the clinicalness in front of goal that seems to be lacking tonight from both sides. I've got to say though well done Munich! And an even bigger congrats to anyone who backed them. ;)Bets for this game: Utd to win both halves -------------- 8.5 (Paddy Power) tiny stak:wall Utd -1 Asian handicap ---------------4.0 (Bet365) medium stake :wall Rooney 1st to score for his team ---- 3.3 (Paddy Power) small :clapstake -
Re: Champions League 31st of March
Please don't fall into the trap of 'Team X beat team Y and we all know Z is better than X'. Bookies love it, it blinds a punter to the more careful and considered analysis that will actually get them results more often than not. Yes, Chelsea beat Arsenal twice this season convincingly. They're a physical side with plenty of pace and power and who usually attack through the middle. In Drogba they have perhaps the most able target man in Europe, who's size and strength crushes the more technical speedy central defenders that Arsene has come to largely deploy. Combine this with Arsenal's emphasis on attack and slight naivety defending and you have the reason why they don't get much luck against them. But here's the kicker, Barcelona are no different. They play a similar style to Arsenal with a shade more technique but less speed and fitness. Chelsea did a number on Barca as well the last time they met, so you shouldn't use this as evidence to tomorrow's outcome. Man united however are a different story and a lot more credible to use for a prediction, but considering it took a diaby own goal and a penalty for them to beat Arsenal at home, where they largely got outplayed it's probably a lot more reasonable to think that both are actually quite evenly matched. In fact I having watched the match would say it was really Arsenal who gifted United the win at the Emirates recently.Barcalona are a better team than Chelsea and Man Utd in my eyes . They have quality all over pitch and beat both United & Chelsea in champs league last year . Man utd and Chelsea have both been to Arsenal this year and won with ease both scoring 3 goals at emirates . -
Re: Champions League 30th of March Personally, I think with the absence of key players Bayern will lose this. Without Robben, they would lack the necessary cut up front to trouble a first choice Utd back line (especially with Ferdinand rested). Ribery too has not been at his best this season through various reasons, but even if this wasn't the case he struggles when deprived of service which I'm fairly sure is going to happen. Utd in contrast have just come off the back of an emphatic victory against Bolton with their key man Rooney rested. Confidence will be running sky high and a player of Rooney's calibre would cause a largely shaky Bayern defense problems even if exhausted. The only caveat I can see is this is a European game and a lot hinges on the match officials - and the footballing culture in which they originate. Bets for this game: Utd to win both halves -------------- 8.5 (Paddy Power) tiny stake Utd -1 Asian handicap ---------------4.0 (Bet365) medium stake Rooney 1st to score for his team ---- 3.3 (Paddy Power) small stake
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Re: Champions League 31st of March
Barca without Iniesta aswell' date=' I'm very tempted by a big bet on Arsenal. I'll do a proper write up tommorow.[/quote'] I'm thinking the same JK :lol. But would like to know if Fabregas can play after picking up that knock from the Birmigham game - there's a part of me though thinking this is entirely mind games by Wenger. He's been known to do something similar in the past. -
Re: Europa League 18th of March
There are several reasons for it to be honest and that's probably one of the major ones. Other's include the fact that Italian teams so famous for their defense are now quite leaky, the penchant for age (which extends to many areas outside of football also) is handicapping them against the increasingly faster paced Spanish and particularly English games and finally the fairly recent Calciopoli scandal which basically turned the Italian league on it's head and collectively weakened it - of course Inter have managed to rise from the ashes of that particular event the better for it, but that is the exception that proves the rule of course.They did have two players sent off though? In European competition it's more a mentality thing. Italian clubs aren't set up to just score more than the opposition imo. -
Re: Europa League 18th of March At near Evens for Liverpool to qualify (Betdaq) I'm going to break the promise I made myself not to bet on the Europa League again this season. :lol
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Re: Champions League 16-17 March
I've had my eye on that Barcelona corner handicap too Jase' date=' you going ahead with it has convinced me. :D I'm also going to be putting some money on Olympiakios +1 AH, I can see a stalemate hapening and Bordeaux just clinching qualifiying on that single goal from the first leg.[/quote'] Barcelona -4 corner handicap :wall Olympiakios +1 AH :unsure Will hopefully make up this on the weekend, Europe has not been kind to me the last few weeks.:cry -
Re: Champions League 16-17 March
Barca are the real professionals' date=' they did their job perfectly ;) just enough for me :ok[/quote'] Fair play to ya, I really didn't see that score line coming. :eek -
Re: Champions League 16-17 March I've had my eye on that Barcelona corner handicap too Jase, you going ahead with it has convinced me. :D I'm also going to be putting some money on Olympiakios +1 AH, I can see a stalemate hapening and Bordeaux just clinching qualifiying on that single goal from the first leg.
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Re: Champions League 16-17 March
Like others have mentioned the price doesn't seem to reflect the wager in my opinion. That and I would want to play a safer bet, seeing as for any team to score 4+ goal at this stage of the CL and later is a big ask. I do take your point that Barca destroyed Bayern last year, but that was a side to naive for it's own good. I just can't see Stuttgart being as easily opened up tonight. That being said, you seem confident in your convictions and I wish you luck on it mate.how about Barcelona today? I'm seriously thinking on placing high stakes on Barca to score 4 or more @4.00 with bet365 Zlatan is back, Messi red-hot, I think they are certainly capable of doing so Last year far stronger Bayern lost 4-0 at Camp Nou so I think Stuttgart has no chance, really Any comments?
Hindsight makes Kings of us all ;)What's with all the after eventing about how poor the price on Chelsea was? :eyes
Add in the fact that they represent Spain's last participant in the competition, playing at home and an opportunity to rub salt in the wounds of Real - and you really can't see anything but them going for it.Barcelona - 4 Corner Handicap @ 2.1 - Skybet. Although, I don't personally feel Barcelona need to win the game. A 0-0 would put them through, by reading recent comments by Pep Guardiola, I think they will be going all out to get a decent sized win. Whether they achieve that is a different matter. Barcelona have beaten a -4 corner handicap here against Rubin, and Kiev. Only managing to beat a -2 corner handicap against Inter, which isn't very surprising to me. I have absolutely no idea how Stuttgart will approach this game tactically, as they need at least a goal to progress. Either way, I can see Barcelona getting forward quite frequently, and racking up a fair few corners in the process. -
Re: Champions League 16-17 March :wall Sevilla let me down big time lol. But oh well, at least I managed to dodge a bullet not betting on an acummulator that I was half thinking about.
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Re: Champions League 16-17 March Sevilla V CSKA offers a very interesting tie. Neither has ever progressed to the last eight of the Champions League - so the chance to make 'history' with their respective clubs should mean a good well fought game. I reckon a -1 AH on Sevilla (2.3 on Boylesports) for this, although neither has that much CL experience, Sevilla has at least been relatively prolific in Europe the last few years in the Europa (AKA The UEFA) Cup. CSKA meanwhile have not kept a clean sheet in their last 15 CL games, where as Sevilla have scored in all but 1 of the last 14. Add to this the Russian league has only just started back up, so you have a potential element of rustiness. Although saying all that, I don't follow Spanish/Russian footy as close as I do other leagues, so if anyone wants to help clarify be my guest :ok
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Re: Outrights - Champs Leauge & Europa
Can't help but feel you may be slightly bias on this issue m8 :tongue2 But in all seriousness I'd wait till at least the last few games of this round are over and the draw for the next are announced before I make a prediction. We'll have a much better view of what's what then.. The CL is Man U's and that's all there is to it! Who ever call himself a serious punter should have high st on Man U to win..! -
Re: Champions League 10th of March Lyon +1.5 Asian handicap :D Real madrid -3 corner handicap :D * Stoke V Burnley :@ *jase you're a legend, keep up the good work m8:clap
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Re: Champions League 9th of March
heh, we all make bad calls from time to time m8. But in fairness to ya, having lurked here for a bit, you do seem to make good predictions 9 times out of ten. Which I'll definitely vouch for seeing as I remember winning 50 from one of them ;)Corners 9 to 8. Bet won :ok Apologies if I talked anyone out of backing Arsenal to beat a handicap. Really really thought Porto were better than that. Fair play to anyone that backed them to win big. -
Re: Champions League 9th of March
:clap Bet won. The writing was on the wall in the first leg imo.2.2 on an Arsenal -1 Asian handicap (betfair) seems like good odds to me. The last time Porto came to the Emirates it was a 4-0 white wash, Porto for all their supposed attacking flair had next to none clear cut chances on their own turf in the first leg - and as everyone knows Fabianski was the main reason they got such a flattering scoreline. I see Porto trying to defend their lead in this, with the plan to try and counter Arsenal on the break, which incidently will suit the home team at the moment who love high possession football. Arshavin is back in action, Theo looking in form and Bendtner who although had a game to forget against Burnley enjoyed a goal a game ratio before that from his last three outings. Perhaps even more importantly though, song is back in midfield for more stability, and Sol back in to shore up the leaky defence. I'm willing to put my neck on the line on this one and reckon 2-0 minimum. -
Re: Champions League 9th of March
Cheers for the welcome mate :ok I don't think you should take last season too much into account when it comes to Arsenal this term. Wenger was basically trying to fit square pegs into round holes pretty much all the way through; thanks mainly to the untimely loss of flamini and Hleb, and a sulky striker who clearly had pretensions of playing elsewhere in Adebayor. There is much more coherence about the team nowadays and although they lack the razor sharpness that they had near the beginning of the season - they still remain formidable to the vast majority of teams out there. Indeed, they only seem to come unstuck against the more physically imposing teams that are solid at back, see both Chelsea games for a good example.Yeah, I totally agree :) I just don't think it'll be completely one sided. Porto will have their say. It's also interesting to note that Arsenal were missing Fabregas at exactly the same stage last season, and they barely scraped through against Roma. They even had Van Persie available then. -
Re: Champions League 9th of March 2.2 on an Arsenal -1 Asian handicap (betfair) seems like good odds to me. The last time Porto came to the Emirates it was a 4-0 white wash, Porto for all their supposed attacking flair had next to none clear cut chances on their own turf in the first leg - and as everyone knows Fabianski was the main reason they got such a flattering scoreline. I see Porto trying to defend their lead in this, with the plan to try and counter Arsenal on the break, which incidently will suit the home team at the moment who love high possession football. Arshavin is back in action, Theo looking in form and Bendtner who although had a game to forget against Burnley enjoyed a goal a game ratio before that from his last three outings. Perhaps even more importantly though, song is back in midfield for more stability, and Sol back in to shore up the leaky defence. I'm willing to put my neck on the line on this one and reckon 2-0 minimum.
UEFA Champions League > 27th - 28th April
in Champions League Predictions
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Re: UEFA Champions League > 27th - 28th April