bagaspuds
-
Posts
8 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by bagaspuds
-
-
Re: Official Poisson Discussion Thread Guys, I am now up to 600 games and the margin is still +12% over Betfair's 5% commission.:cow I calculate the scoring rate from the start of the season. I'm too lazy to add weight to each score based on the oponent. My question is, what level of confidence can I have in this? Can I quantify it in any way?
-
Re: Italian Serie A Silly Season This is a disgrace, Chievo & Parma just finished a scoreless draw. Odds for draw were 2.84 at start, should have been around 3.5. As a supporter, why even bother going to these matches Puke football, indeed:puke
-
Re: Italian Serie A Silly Season Ah come on,it's gone beyond hilarious now. Have a look at the score1-1 odds now:gimme
Betting on: Total matched on this event: €71,987 Betting summary - Volume: €60,235 Last price matched: 2.60 -
Re: Italian Serie A Silly Season It's crazy alright. By my calculator these are the odds; Draw - 3.7 Score 1-1, Odds - 7.8 Cut & pasted this from Betfair just now, score 1-1 market, tells it's own story :cash
Betting on: Total matched on this event: €48,993 Betting summary - Volume: €41,497 Last price matched: 3.70 -
Re: Italian Serie A Silly Season Yep, I noticed this last year. There was a crazy amount of draws in one particular weekend?:@
-
Re: Official Poisson Discussion Thread Guys, I have now looked at over 300 soccer games, randomly across different european leagues. I have compared my starting odds with Betfair's. If I was to bet on the highest Value of either Home, Away or draw on ALL of these matches then the return would be 13% over Betfair 5% commision.:dude How does this seem to you? How many games is "a good sample" to have confidence in?
-
Re: Official Poisson Discussion Thread
SpodoKomodo, Great to read your post. I have been using Poisson also to predict the outcome of football matches. Incidentally I have used up to a score of 7-7, this covers 99.46% of the outcome at scoring rates of 60mins (A) and 60mins(B). So that's fine with me. Just add up all the probabilites for all the scores and see how far short of the 100% mark you are. What concerns me is the above quote. I too have been taking the average of 'Team A Home score rate' & 'Team B away Concede rate'. Is this correct? You say it is conventional. I know it is better than taking the scoring rates alone but is there a better way? Would love to hear from others. These are values I got from my calculator. Do they agree with yours. A-60, B-60 score rates Odds A-2.63 B-2.63 Draw - 4.19 A-45, B-70 A-1.84 B-4.11 Draw-4.72 As with the above reply, I believe the bookies move their odds to reflect the flow of money. So I would not be overconcerned if they differ from yours.:dudeWhat I have done so far:- For testing purposes, I am using this season's goals scored and goals conceded stats to create my expected numeric value (mean). I am doing the conventional: (Home team goals scored at home + Away team goals conceded away)/2. And vice versa.
Official Poisson Discussion Thread
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: Official Poisson Discussion Thread Cheers "Kumquat Tree". I agree with all you say. I think poisson is accurate over a large number of games so you really have to roll with the punches and not worry over about the run of losses. If you are looking for value then you will find that it is the long odds (though not always so) that offer the best value. Soccer by it's nature is very low-scoring so therfore very random, after all a game can literally be decided on a lucky deflection or dubious referee decision. Over a large number of games, this randomness is smoothed out. I'm still undecided though how best to compute the scoring rate, ie recent form with weightings versus average over high number of games. Less work in the last approach though.:ok