Box3r
-
Posts
75 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by Box3r
-
-
Re: Betfair Trading
he said you can use whatever you want. H2H meetings, last matches, average scoring of a team etc.Hello everybody, Can you explain me how you find that number of goals is 2.8 in Roma vs. Sampdoria? Thanks -
Re: Dutching score system
And what if 3-0 score comes in? So with your system it is basical like laying 3-0 score.I have made a spreadsheet that i think works. If anyone wants it - let me know. I have also added an extra element to this system: I have added a +3.5 goals bet too. Now, (i think if my calculations are correct) from what i can see if you manage to get the right odds it is impossible to lose money whatever the score/result is. It works in the same principal as the OP dutching system, however if the score happens to be 3-1, 4-0, 9-1 etc... the +3.5 goals covers you. It also means that if the match should finish 2-2, 3-3 etc you 'win' the lay bet and also the +3.5 goals bet. I think that my calculations are correct so i would like anyone who knows alot more about this than me to go through the spreadsheet and make sure all of the formulas work and that it is actually telling me the truth!! In the spreadsheet - you only have to change the odds and the stake and the rest will work out itself. The figures in the spreadsheet i taken from betfair today for the Barcelona vs Xerez match: Lay Barcelona: 1.13 1-0: 12 2-0: 7.2 2-1: 13.5 +3.5 Goals: 1.97 Feel free to comment or get in touch with me if you want the spreadsheet so you can check it out. Matt -
Re: Dutching score system
the system is based on odds where their range is to lay a team 1.3 - 1.8Ok good I'm getting my head round it and can now work it out using the calculator and get to the same figures as I should do, however applying the system to tonights game between Athletico and Liverpool in which I cannot see Athletico scoring 3 or more goals their lay odds are 2.54 So does that mean I do 2.54 divided by 0.54 then? Sorry just the number not being 1.something is confusing me! -
Re: Greening systems on Betfair -- seems to work he means he would back at 16 and lay it in-play. that can be done if you know what horse has very good start.
-
Re: Betfair Trading
That is scalping and it is very good for all not only beginners. You can do it few times before the race and can be profitable if you are patient enough. I consider it as a glass that needs to be filled with water but it is dripping drop by drop. I sometimes do it. Not very much but when I want to make at least 10 euros to back some horse or a team so i can have free bet on it. In 1 thick want to make at least 2-3 euro. It can be done with more money but like fronment said patience is a virtue.Simple SAFE rule for Beginners -- Try the FREE BET system -- Back any decent Horse for say 2 GBP and then LAY it at a LOWER price than you backed it for. This will give you a FREE BET since if you win you win the backed horse, whereas if you lose you lose NOTHING . -
Re: Dutching score system Where did you get past odds?
-
Re: Betfair Trading
Non taken. I know there is more content but I was reading that blog some time ago. I found some useful info there although he don't want to share 30% of what is he doing. I too want to find out more about trading. Can I ask is forex e-books worth any reading on how to recognize steamer or a drifter (I know many of these are scams)? Any other financial e-book maybe?Hi, Bradders; despite being the best betting forum I have ever found, Punters Lounge suffers from relatively poor trading content, only here and there thread pop ups with some stuff usefull for us traders; so, if you want to read trading content on this forum, maybe you want to put some efforts to inspire traders to write more than it's now... ;) I don't know if you just want to move on trading discussion here, or you are just about to start trading, so you need to learn, but I wouldn't agree with above recommendation of Adam Heathcote blog, as it seem to me just like an aggressive advertismenet for expensive Bet Angel trading application... and their, also expensive, trading courses. No offence, Box3r, it's my opinion. In my opinion, you should look no further than The Geeks Toy, which is free of charge but does not lack any function of pro applications, and they have very rich forum, exclusively for trading, and you can learn a lot from there, or Gruss Betting Assistant, which has a reasonable price of 6 GBP a month; blog I reccommend when it comes to trading is green-all-over.blogspot.com, and then look for other blogs he links to, some of them are equally good (yes, Adam is in links, too). Ok, so maybe to start some discussion, I will copy-paste in next two posts two readings that I enjoyed the most; first one is thanks to, if I remember well his sound name, Sparky Marky from Betfair forums, who posted it long time ago, I don't know if he is the original author, and it's nicely described "evolution" of a trader; the second one is story I found at the very beginning of my trading adventure, and it indeed had a big impact to my patience in trading; I don't know who is author, I just copied it and saved in my PC. -
Re: Dutching score system
No problem. I also love to try out new systems and ideas. Maybe if you can work this one out then you might not even be in the need to a loss recovery plan. As for the spreadsheet on to an email I learned that it is better to post in on the forum so everyone can see it. But if you aren't able to post it here then we can work something out.Thats a great idea! I was thinking along those lines before but haven't put any stats together for it other than mean +/- standard deviation which doesn't give us much to work with. I'm gonna work on my data and try come up with 4 odds bands, with strike rates for each band. Then we might be able to come up with a staking system which will maximise profits/ minimise losses. An extension of this would be that we can be more selective about our loss recovery system. Place the loss recovery stakes on the odds band with the best strike rate etc. Thanks for the ideas Box3r! Hopefully if we keep knockin heads together we might come up with a more functional system. How is the laying going for you? I'll email you over my calculation spreadsheet if you want... -
Re: Dutching score system Can you tell me what is your strike rate depending on price? Is 1.8 best to score? Maybe you could somehow try to develop similar staking plan as maria's staking plan? You can see it here http://expertbettingadvice.co.uk/forum/thread18432.html
-
Re: Betfair Trading I think there aren't any but i can recommend you read adam heatchote blog at http://adamheathcote.blogspot.com/
-
Re: Dutching score system
Can you tell me more about this? We all know that martingale is bad cause it is at least for me a catch 22 (it can only lead to a bigger problems or loss) :) I know for money management plan where you spread your loss between few bets. (It is from a staking machine program). Do you use something like that or?Loss recovery system is a basic martingale approach with a factor of 2 (divided up on next weeks games). Again it seemed to work well backtesting but maybe there is a better way??? -
Re: Dutching score system too bad for liverpool.. it was good potential profit. keep it up leftism
-
Re: Dutching score system Lol i am still strugling with calculating that lay bet. I know how to dutch but lay bet is.. aargh
-
Re: Dutching score system Did you look other ranges of odds? I mean there could be better teams to bet on. Example today there is a match between Linfield vs. Bohemians (I know that is not your leagues.. you making a example). Odds are 2.64 to lay Linfield. That could be a tight match and better to score on your system (maybe)
-
Re: Dutching score system Actually it's worse to your's PAW then his. I tried with Liverpool game. When i input 3-0 / 3-1 / 3-2 / any unquoted and the same liability i get 2 times less of profit. I didn't calculate his math but i reckon it is good.
-
Re: Dutching score system Sure m8 thanks.
-
Re: Dutching score system Can you show me?? i know i have the calc bookmarked somwhere. :)
-
Re: Dutching score system it seems pretty good. you seem to scored every game today. I want to ask you are Real & Barcelona the worst to score? They score over 3 goals sometimes. I can ask the same for the big four from england and how are you calculating the stakes?? I know there is a calculator but it seems i can't find it. lol
-
Re: Laying Horses from odds 22-0 Awesome work shadow.
-
Re: Laying Horses from odds 19-0 Awesome m8. 19 times a winner!! great work. but all must stop once. hope that doesn't happen fast.. hope i didn't curse you :)
-
Re: 1 1/3 Cycles to Retirement, Bust or Boredom..
lol m8 i saw this post. i had him on multiple ticket. for 750 euros he lost. :cryFuccking Rochdale eh!!:wall dammit it's frustrating when odd with 12 wins :@ -
Re: Croatian Prva HNL 2-3/4 cant wait for it. great game i hope.
-
Re: My 2nd glory hunt 6) Čilić - Verdasco LAY Verdasco @ 2.28 - stake is 75.44$ Cheers.
-
Re: My 2nd glory hunt Bet 5 is a winner so that adds it to a bank of 643.76$.
Betfair Trading
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: Betfair Trading
I presume you have just started trading cause your 1st post is how much others are earning. I don't think anyone can make millions per year cause even for 5% of that money (50 000) you need a lot of patience and ups & downs. 1 advice. Don't bother to look at others. If you want to make money from trading take baby steps to it. Remember patience is a virtue. @ KThom - your strategy seems good but look at other markets as well. You can earn few ticks with backing AU and lay it in 4-5 minutes in-play. ;)