LLudvig
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Posts posted by LLudvig
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Re: West Brom v QPR > Sat 6 October Im gonna get on QPR one way or the other here. WBA being priced as 1.85 favourites at home, doesn't compute with me. As one mentioned earlier, their wins at home doesn't tell the whole story. QPR certainly haven't played to the standard, their squad would suggest. I guess that was expected with so many new arrivals. From the look of it though, alot of quality players has arrived, and its a matter of time before they gel. I for one, think that playing away can do them some good here, and relieve some of the pressure, from the demanding fans at home. Just hope Mark Hughes let them play here, instead of defending a point. So something can be said of awaiting team news. Not for me though. QPR straight win for me, at 4,7. Sure, its a gamble, but its a bet against the price of WBA, and the potential of QPR. Making it a valuebet. Soft stomach? My suggestion would be QPR on the asian hcp.
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Re: Sunderland v Liverpool > September 15th Early, I know. But that is a great price for a strenghtened Sunderland side, against a Liverpool team, with no goals, and still trying to find their feet, under a new philosophy of play. Sunderland AH0 2.35
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Re: Sunderland V Wolves > 14 April @ Pay Day, It takes a brave man to have a punt at Wolverhampton atm, and I really appreciate det effort. I like your thought process, and will likely be following you. @ Alex To me, you can't compare a game against an utterly motivated in-form top 4 side, with a team who has nothing to play for, but pride, less than relevant points and home fans. That says something. God have mercy on the bookmaker laying 30 on a Wolves win. ;) "Only question here is whether or not Sunderland turn up." Indeed. Good luck with both your bets.
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Re: Wolves v Blackburn > March 10th Either way, we get smarter. Im rooting for you.
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Re: Wolves v Blackburn > March 10th I like the idea, but there are certain circumstances which worry me. There are alot at stake in this match. Nerves could play a big part, and turn this into a scrappy affair. None of the teams having any real momentum or form going, it all tends to favour the unders. Most goals 2nd half could be an option. Anyway good luck.
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Re: Swansea v Man City > March 11th Under 2.5 @ 1,98 Under 1.5 @ 3,75 , both with betfair. Just solid value prices for a team who has gone under 1.5 goals in their last 5 away games. Swansea will most likely get their share of possesion, but I don't see them being a real threat when it gets to the final third. Dyer is a loss for them. You could argue for an insurance line of CS 0-3 or 1-2, or even go for the throat with CS 0-1 and 0-2.
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Re: England > Barclays Premier League > 2-4 January "The pressure is on Blackburn here, they're expected to win this where as the last two games away the players haven't had that, playing more freely." I myself were looking at Blackburn, but that's an interesting point, and would like to add, that it probably doesn't help that half the ground is so fiercely against the manager. Not much home advantage there. Still undecided though. A bet I do like is Wigan at home against Sunderland. Wigan building momentum as of late, and have more time to prepare. Sunderland are playing 48 hours after a very hard match against City, many of them obviously tired, Cattermole cramped, two midfielders as full backs. O'neill is a good manager, but the odds are stacked against imo, think Wigan will have a go. Wigan - AH 0 - 1,92 - Bet365
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Re: England > Midweek > Barclays Premier League > 20-22 December Thought about it myself, I suppose it's +1 european hcp.
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Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 17-18 December
Not that I disagree with your bet, but I do think your logic is flawed. Do not agree that City struggle against stronger teams. Acclaimed champion contender, Tottenham were well beaten 1-5 at WHL. United were humiliated at Old Trafford, 1-6. City outplayed Chelsea for the first ½ hour, and could easily have been leading by a couple of goals by half time. The red card changed the game, and even then, Chelsea didn't look like scoring, as City settled for a draw. The Arsenal game counts for nothing imo, as both teams changed 9 or 10 players, and even then, City won. At Emirates. Then, of course, there is the Champions League, but I think thats a different ball game.Man.City - Arsenal On Monday against Chelsea we saw that Man.City struggle when it comes to playing against stronger teams and I don’t expect them to have an easy game against Arsenal. Moreover, they have some important players missing in defense, namely Gael Clichy, Aleksandar Kolarov and Micah Richards is doubtful and even if he plays I am not sure he will be at 100%. Arsenal are in good form and apart from their long term absentees have a strong squad. Arsenal played really well against in the Carling Cup without most of their key players and I believe that with in form Van Persie and other key players they will be able to get something from this game.Disagree with all that! Arsenal have been playing brilliantly of late and even if they are reliant on Van Persie' date=' its only a problem for Arsenal if he isnt playing! He will be playing so Arsenal will be a huge threat! Arsenal went to Chelsea and won 5-3, ye went to Chelsea and lost 2-1, yer games against United and Spurs have no bearing whatsoever on this match and i fancy Arsenal to get a result against an over-rated City team![/quote'] Disagree with almost all of that! It's surely not an advantage, being reliant on one player. He's a threat, but who else is? And even Van Persie can have a quiet game. The games against United and Spurs have no bearing, but Citys and Arsenal visits to Stamford Bridge can easily be compared. Huh? If that's the case, I would like to compare the teams visit to Old Trafford. Looks like they are in for a hammering! In all honesty, I think it's a tough game to call. For Arsenal to get something, Van Persie needs to be firing, City are aware of that, and will try their utmost to keep him quiet. Arsenal do have a decent record against Man City. City have threats from everywhere against and imo average Arsenal defence. Citys defense missing some players. If I were to do something, I would jump on the goals market. Over 3 goals @ 2.17 - Canbet A bet I do like is Blackburn to beat WBA. For me, Blackburn are the better team, and their league position misplaced. Team seems to be rallying around Steve Kean. They score goals. Odemwingie misfiring and WBA as a whole, have yet to impress me this season. Home win for me. Blackburn win @ 2.48 - Pinnacle -
Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 5 - 6 Why no Balotelli Kiddo? On fire at the moment, having scored in his last six games. City is the highest scoring side. He is the preferred option from the spot, and gets his fair share of free kicks aswell. Good luck.
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Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 17-18 September
Like them both, but Benayoun im very excited about, believe he can play the part. Cheers, best of luck to you BIG X.I take your points and I agree to an extent. They certainly aren't the same force as last season, but IMO they still have far too much quality for what I think is a very poor Blackburn side. Yes they have lost some big players, but they have also signed Arteta and Benayoun players who have plenty of permier league experience. Going back to my original point if they do click then I think we could be looking at a big win and with the odds on offer I am going to play the following. 4pts Blackburn v Arsenal - Arsenal -1AH @ 2.60 Bet365...Losing Fabregas is a blow butArteta is a more than capable replacement... ...Nasri's contribution cannot be so easily be replaced as he was a great premier league player. Clichy added nothing to Arsenal IMO and he will not be missed, Man City wasted £8m on a player riddled with defensive errors, good luck to them.Forgot to mention Van Persie is leading the team' date=' experienced, world class player - his goal and all-round performance V Dortmund was sensational, they wont go far wrong with him as captain let me tell you.[/quote'] Im familiar with Van Persie, thank you. I rate Van Persie just as much as the next guy. But one thing is wearing the armband, and another being a leader on the pitch. I was pleased for Arsenal when Arteta was signed, rate him highly, but saying he is a more than capable replacement for Fabregas, I don't agree with. I mean, who is? Losing first choice left back for 5 seasons, French international, and former PFA Team of the Year member to a main rival, can't all be good now, can it? Even Alan Hansen gave him the nod. At least you gave me Nasri. But this is neither here nor there. -
Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 17-18 September
Didn't see the match. From what i've heard and read, Wenger was lucky to escape with a valueable point against an inexperienced CL side. With question marks hanging over their head, I was really looking for a response in the Swansea match, and didn't get it. So for me, Arsenal have yet to play the part this season, being the trend. And even though the price is longer than first thought, I have absolutely no confidence in them, against a side, who impressed me in their last home outing. Losing influential Fabregas, Nasri and undervalued Clichy in a turbulent transfer window. Two of which, two a direct rival. I believe they are still hurting. Im sure they will come good at some point. But for now, who is leading that team?Not sure what you are getting at here :unsure The hammering at United apart, I think they have looked ok including a decent away performance in the Champions league. Also worth considering that last season Arsenal were the best away side in the league -
Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 17-18 September
To suspect a team to click or not, I don't like. A big outfit bookie darling, betting against a trend, doesn't seem the right way to go. I suppose playing away from home, could work in their favour. Not touching this, unless a 'surprising' line movement comes along. With Newcastles obvious lack of firepower, and an stubborn AV defence, i've gone for a tasty AV clean sheet @ 3.5 with StanJames. Given Best doesn't deliver something special, I don't see Given gettin' beaten.Also Arsenal are a very dangerous side to bet against. Yes they haven't been at their best yet this season, but they only need to click and then they can hurt you from all over the pitch - also I think Gervinho is back from suspension. IMO they will have far too much for Blackburn and If I do touch this game I will look to take Arsenal, maybe even on the handicap. :ok -
Re: UEFA > Champions League > Tuesday 2nd November
Some very good points - lost some confidence in my bet. Don't know as much as Inter as you obv do. But just because Tottenham know they cannot be 'cavalier' in their approach, does not mean they won't. Not impressed with Tottenhams central defenders, and do not see them sitting back on a 1-0 lead. Believe the they will play some free flowing attacking football, as to me, that is all they got. Really like your view on the Copenhagen - Barca game, and have followed you there. Forecasts predict alot of rain in Parken tonight, which further strenghtens the bet imo.Tottenham - Inter Milan under 2.5 @ 2.01 pinnacle Expecting a much more subdued game here compared to the first game two weeks ago. Spurs have shown that they have problems playing on the road in the CL as they have tended to concede goals, as was evident when they allowed Zanetti to score after just 2 minutes. Then the sending off the keeper Gomezand subsequent penalty sees Inter lead 2-0. Spurs never rally recoverd after that to be down 4-0 at half time. Sure they scored 3 goals late on, but by then, Inter thought they had it won and lost their focus. Spurs are a different team at home, and with better insight and knowledge how Inter play, they know they cannot be cavalier in their approach here. Inter have class players like Sneijder and Etoo who can torment you if given the chance, so expect Redknapp to have learnt some lessons from the first game and be more cautious in his approach. Benitez has always shown, with Valencia and Liverpool, that he tended to be much more defence minded when playing on the road. Inter lead the group with 7 points while Spurs are next with 4 points, and for Benitez, a point would be enough. He also knows quite a few of the Spurs players from his time with Liverpool, and he would have seen in the first game, what their strengths and weaknesses are. Also, if you have seen their 6 games that they have played in the Serie A and CL, they have gone over twice, 2-1 at Palermo after conceding early and then having to go on the attack to get the win, and 2-2 at Twente Enschede. The other 4 games have been 1-0 scorelines where they have won 3 of these (and kept clean sheets in them), while the other they lost to a 92nd minute goal at Roma. While there are points to say that this will be an open game especially after the first game had 7 goals in it, believe that the managers will play this differently, and will look to get a point while 3 would be a bonus -
Re: UEFA > Champions League > Tuesday 2nd November Tottenham vs Inter Everytime i've seen Tottenham on White Hart Lane this season, they have been impressive. Think with their 2nd half performance in Italy, they have lost some of their respect for Inter, and know it can be done. And I really rate Tottenham at home. Can't deny Inters star offensive, and if the game unfolds with an early goal, alot can come. Tottenham win @ 2,68 - betfair Tottenham EH -1 @ 6,3 (!) - nordicbet Over 2,5 goals @ 1,87 - betfair Over 3,5 goals @ 3,2 - betfair Valencia vs Rangers Also going with a low scoring game in Valencia, same reasons as some said above. Valencia will have a hard time breaking them down, but have quality in the team to do so. Attractive price. Under 2,5 goals @ 2,04 - betfair Correct score 1-0 @ 7,0 - betfair Correct score 2-0 @ 7,25 - unibet
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Re: UEFA Champions League > 27th - 28th April 5.0 (Bet365) looks good for me. Hard not to appreciate your contribution to PL xarales. WD. :dude
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Re: UEFA Europa League 8th of April
Shouldn't we be looking at the under line at 2.72 then? As you said it, alot of results suits either side. Under 2.5 Goals: Betfair @ 2.72 *with the idea of laying off asap Under 3 goals: 10bet @ 1.96 Correct score: 2-2 Betfair @ 15 Hamburg comes to Liege with a narrow 2-1 lead, Hamburg's first-leg victory is their only win in their last six games. Monday they gave striker Paolo Guerrero with a club record fine after he threw a plastic bottle at a fan who was shouting abuse at him after their goalless draw with Hannover. Meanwhile the first-leg defeat was Standard's first defeat in the Europa League this season and their first in all European competition since losing 2-0 at Arsenal in the Champions League in November. Even though Liege are in far from impressive form in the league, having won just one game since Feb, i fancy laying Hamburg here and backing the under. Lay Hamburg: Betfair @ 2.65 Under 2.5 goals: Betfair @ 2.06 One time baby!! :okWas thinking about the overs myself but at 1.60 ish, it does look a bit skinny considering the amount of results that would 'suit' either side. Good point mate....:ok -
Re: Champions League 31st of March What you guys think of CSKA to Qualify @ 3.9? I think that the Chelsea game was a special game for Mourinho - and the players were extra motivated. A weakened Chelsea team could easily have took an early chance, and the game could have gone a different direction. I feel that the current Inter team fares better in Europe, when being the underdog. Mourinho are supposed to win the CL title. A complacent Inter team might get frustrated if things don't work out. Having not seen CSKAs latest matches, or any stats to back it up, I still feel @ 3.9 they are worth at shot. Inter are overvalued. Having read the forum for a couple of months, im now stepping onto the scene. Mainly Premier League, Danish football and the German Bundesliga. Any help appreciated. Aloha. :dude
Group H > Dec 6th (Inter Milan, Neftchi, Partizan Belgrade, Rubin Kazan)
in Europa League Predictions
Posted
Re: Group H > Dec 6th (Inter Milan, Neftchi, Partizan Belgrade, Rubin Kazan) Applying some of the same logic to the Inter match. Inter have nothing to play for, and an important match against Napoli in the weekend. Can't read too much into it, but Neftchis have a sole goal in their 2 away appearences in this group. Inter - Neftchi under 2.5 @ 2.3 (betfair)