Sixaside
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Posts posted by Sixaside
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Re: Data into spreadsheets Did you post this query elsewhere YFF? It is something I'm interested in myself. No problem with the fixed odds bookies but betfair isn't included in football-data.co.uk for example.
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Re: Making Money on Betfair Here's a few questions for the statisticians: Does anyone know what the longest sequence of winning favs is for the following? UK racing single meeting Irish racing single meeting UK racing by start time across all meetings on a particular date and following on to the next day's races? Irish racing by start time across all meetings on a particular date and following on to the next day's races? Irish and UK racing by start time across all meetings on a particular date and following on to the next day's races?
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Re: Making Money on Betfair Ok. I've worked out how many consecutive winning 2/1 favs you could sustain using the model you suggest. Not sure whether the answer is encouraging or not! If you had 8 consecutive losses at 2/1, you would need to win on your 9th bet, otherwise the bank is blown! what's the odds on that?:unsure
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Re: Making Money on Betfair
Very interesting. I think the key is targeting specific events. the 1 in 3 favs stat refers to favs of all prices. Not sure of the exact ratio but when it comes to odds-on favs in the nags, more than 1 in 3 will win so the price is a determining factor. Of course the liability would be lower laying hotpots so you would be able to sustain a longer losing run. Also you would need to take commission into account. Say you lost €1 in your first bet you need to make €1.25 after 5% commission. so you would need to use a stake of €1.31 in your 2nd bet. I must work out how many 2/1 winning favs it would take to blow the bank. That's the key. A little bit like doubling up in roulette - it's all about how many successive losses your bank can sustain.Should the favourite lose the next bet is your losing amount plus your required 0.25 profit should this bet lose you would repeat your loses adding on your expected profit.Continue until you lay a loser and then revert to your original stake.
Bairn's Value Away Wins
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Excellent results so far Bairn. Just a word of warning though - I wouldn't share my formulas via PM or otherwise. How do you know that you aren't giving your edge away to bookies??