theclown
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Re: CONCACAF Champions League
Sport Football (Internationals) Event Toronto FC - Real Salt Lake Selection Over 2.50 Strength 10/10 Date 28/09/2010 Bookmaker/Price Canbet @ 2.00 Reasoning Only the win may pay for Toronto tonight; Cruz Azul is a 1.2 favorite in the other group game and if Toronto doesn't win cannot cover a 5point gap in the last remaining match day. So, sooner or later Toronto will attack. Only the scenario of an early goal may keep them behind ball. But they face a team who likes to attack: 6-2 goals in two home matches and 7-7 in two away. Even if we keep apart that crazy 4-5 vs Cruz, Real is used in high scores: 2-1, 3-2, 4-1 in the rest 3 games. -
Wednesday 29 September 2010 Home Draw Away BPP 
Cruz Azul v Ãrabe Unido (01:00 BST) 1.2 7.8 21 100.92 % Toronto FC v Real Salt Lake (01:00 BST) 2.58 3.6 2.84 101.75 % Deportivo Saprissa v Monterrey (03:00 BST) 2.4 3.65 3.2 100.31 % Thursday 30 September 2010 Home Draw Away BPP Puerto Rico Islanders v Deportivo Toluca (01:00 BST) 2.75 3.27 2.54 106.31 % Municipal v Columbus Crew (03:00 BST) 2.42 3.25 2.83 107.26 % Santos Laguna v Joe Public (03:00 BST) 1.21 6.5 17 103.91 % Seattle Sounders v Marathón (03:00 BST) 2.35 3.35 2.92 106.65 % Friday 1 October 2010 Home Draw Away BPP CD Fas v Olimpia (03:00 BST) 2.41 3.27 2.62 110.17 % -
Re: Colombia: Sunday 19 September 2010
Event A. Huila - Nacional Selection Over 2, 2.5 Strength 10/10 (flat rate) Date 18/09/2010 (23:20 GMT0) Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 1.90 Reasoning Huila played 4 matches at home so far for Primera and the 2.25 goals per match that scores is the best Home record in the League. All of Huila's matches at home, even the two for Copa Sudamericana and the 3 for Copa Colombia were goal/goal matches (the goal avg for all 9 matches rise up to 2.33). Today Huila faces Nacional, in a important match. Nacional played 3 away matches so far, with a high avg scoring rate (+2.0) and the worst defending record (-3.0 avg) in the League. These 3 on the road matches for Nacional were g/g matches as well (although this is not the case for 2 -against Itagui- out of 3 away Cup matches). The most important: for both teams, there are no single high scoring games that affect the average; contrary the scoring distribution is perfect (scoring: 1-2-3-3 for Huila, 1-3-2 for Nacional concedead: 3-2-4 for Nacional, 1-1-2-1 for Huila) -
Sunday 19 September 2010 Home Draw Away BPP Atlético Huila v Atlético Nacional (00:20 BST) 1.9 3.5 4.2 104.76 % América de Cali v Deportes Tolima (02:30 BST) 1.8 3.5 4.25 107.66 % Boyacá Chicó v Deportivo Cali (21:30 BST) 2 3.3 3.53 108.63 % Cortuluá v La Equidad (21:30 BST) 2.29 3.25 3 107.77 % Cúcuta Deportivo v Junior (21:30 BST) 1.9 3.4 4.08 106.30 % Once Caldas v Deportes QuindÃo (21:30 BST) 2.25 3.25 3.19 106.56 % Real Cartagena v Deportivo Pereira (21:30 BST) 1.73 3.42 4.5 109.09 % Independiente Santa Fe v Millonarios Bogota (23:45 BST) 1.5 4 7 105.95 % -
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Re: Chile, Primera Division Event: San Luis - U. De Conception Selection: Under 2.5, 3.0 Strength: 10/10 (flat rate) Date: 16/09/2010; 01:00 (GMT+2) Bookmaker/price : [email protected] Reasoning: Since Chilean Championship restarted, right after WC brake, UdC has played 8 matches, where conceded 4 goals, or about 0.5g/match. This is the best record in Chile since July first. When they do play away from home their record is 0.75 goals against/match, but then, they score only 0.25! This is 1 goal in 4 matches. That sole goal was against Everton, at the very last min of the Extra Time, while Everton was fighing with 8! players (sent-offs:57'; 84'; 89'). San Luis Quillota of course is a team with really bad results and one step away from relegation (they must cover a handicap of 10 points in 7 matches, quite unlikely). They haven't won a single match after the break but they managed 3 draws against low -level teams (UdC doesn't perfom as low level the last two months) Of course, they score very few goals: 3goals in 8 matches, incl. a cup match 10 days ago. They often play with 10 men cause of red cards (4/last 8 matches) and if this happen, there is a change to be hammered (3 times out of 4). Otherwise, its not easy to break their defence (in last 4 11vs11-matches: twice a clean sheet; once 1 goal against and once 3 goals against - that was the cup match)
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Re: Argentina Primera division 4-5 September UR welcome. Not in mood to write a reasoning but reasoned, conservative picks are imo: Gimnasia - Lanus: [email protected] Quilmes - Huracan: Huracan (+0.5)@1.61
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Re: Argentina Primera division 4-5 September Event: All Boys vs Olimpo Pick: All Boys(0)@1.79 (12bet) Strength: 10/10 (i use flat rate) Date: 04/09/2010 (17:1) - GMT+0 Reasoning: Olimpo lost 2/2 on the run, while never scored more than 1; not even against Racing at home, althought O was playing vs 10 for 30 mins. Of course, at least scores one (3/4 matches) and so can say they can do it again vs All Boys of poor defense. But I see that AB defense is "poor" mainly because they conceded 3g vs San Lorenzo away, playing with 10 players (60'; 0-1) and later with 9 (81'; 1-2), and because they conceded 2g vs Velez (home). Against low scoring teams like Racing (+1.0H) and Boca (+0.5A) All Boys defense did it fine. More, they can score too: after their very first match in the League, they' ve scored in everyone of the next 3 matches.
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Re: Copa Sudamericana 2010 Event: Velez - Banfield Selection: Under 2.00 Strength: 10/10 (i use flat rate) Date: 02/09/2010 (23:15) - GMT+0 Reasoning: Too little changes, too little goals for Banfield so far in Apertoura 2010. 4 matches, 3 goals, but only during the home game vs the weak Olimpo scored twice.On the other hand, they do know how to defend: Banfield conceded one during the first minute of the new season, but none for the next 180+! Velez is another story of course, as always scores 1 or 2, althought they don't get it so easy: They press a lot and finally score (5/6 goals so far) during the last quarter of any half. But in their prev game, the first w/o stopper Otamenti, lost 1-2 in "Bombonera". As this is a 2-leg match, i believe that both teams will be cautious: Banfield has no reason to risk away, even if they lose 1-0; Velez won't press recklessly: even a 0-0 is better than a loss as they ARE able and will have the change to score in 14 days. In fact, I do believe that the 2.00 goals is what we can expect as a realistic line. I'm as sure as it can be that we won't see 3 goals - i do hope that we won't see even 2. Unfortunatelly, the odds in higher goal lines are silly
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Re: Chile – Campeonato Nacional 22-25/07 Half time and we already won it, pal! :ok
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Universidad de Chile – Audax Italiano Probably s.o. may think that this will be a close, low scoring match, as both teams need the points: U de Chile needs 3 points to have a slight hope for the championship, while Audax needs them to qualify for the liguila where the teams for South America Cups will be decided. The truth is that by numbers, both teams have attacking mentality & skills: U de Chile has a significant difference from league average in per match scoring both at home and away; Audax also has a 1.88 goals per match away, with just one out of 8 away matches with less than 3 goals My pick in: Over2,5 @1.65 [bet365]
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Banfield - Lanus What a disappointment! I'm talking about Lanus of course, who does a poor tournament for second season in a row. In the very first match this season, Lanus overcome a 0-2 in the first half to win 3-2 at the end against Huracan, but conceding 2 goals from El Globo is sth you can't take lightly. On Day 2 they've lost without resistance in “Bomboneraâ€, conceding 3 goals this time (from a strong attack line – it's true). Then, on Saturday, the reserves played and lost again 3-6, as to allow the first team to concede 2 more at home from a Paraguanian team for Copa Libertadores. At least 2 in every match, not exactly a record to be proud for.. Banfield: Ok, Banfield have lost S. Silva, and they have a hard time scoring indeed, but they are a solid team, as always was. A late 0-1 at River's field on Day 1 it's exactly what I have on my mind as Banfield's image. Game on Day 2 was postponed due to heavy rain, and then on Day 3 lost away from Chaca with an unexpected home team's come back (2-1 from behind). Yesterday (Wednesday) a red card for Morelia helped Banfield to win their first game in Libertadores (2-1). Hosting Lanus at home today, win is sth they can do in this "classico". But, as Lanus can score 1 goal once more, the 2 goals for Banfield is still a question this season, and I choose Money back in Draw.
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Re: Greece 13-14 February Skoda Xanthi v AEL 1964 Xanthi is in fair form, with 2 home wins, one away draw & one away lose in Athens. Especially its home Record is 7-1-3, but 2 of the losses was with the 2 top clubs, Panathinaikos & Olympiakos. Larisa has only one win away, against the weakest team of the league, while playing for about 50 min with 1 more players. According to my calculations, Xanthi is capable to score twice by itself, if not receive a red card (X has 4 red cards against in 11 home games). Larisa is on the edge to score 1. No problems for Xanthi, while Larissa will miss some players. Both teams but especially Larisa need a good result today, and reports saying that Larissa's coach will try sth new. Weather is fine for football, sunny now, but might be a light rain, 6ºC, rH 77%, low wind Feeling quite sure for Over [email protected] & Xanthi(-0.25)@ 1.625
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Re: Greece 6-7 February by the way, i've bet on [email protected]. With these conditions, probably i have to be happy
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Re: Greece 6-7 February
Bad pitch contitions. Because of heavy rain, the pitch was muddy, and the ball couldn't run. First half was awfull, away team scored because Aris' keeper slept!Just seen that the Aris game has been abandoned. Any info on why? I'm guessing weather? Bloody glad if so, had them on the -1 handicap to beat Panthrakikos and they were 1-0 down! -
Re: Greece 6-7 February AEK to [email protected](Pinnacle & more) 1. AEK has no problem with meadium to low level teams. Won 5/6 of them, and the exception, when unique is wellcomed 2. AEK has the second best Home attack, while had played in home with the 3 best defences. Scores 3 goals with S/MTeams. 3. Xanthi scored just 1 goal away in 9 matches, against the wicker by far defence of the league. They play 11 behind ball, but dosnt seem to work (0-3-6 Away)
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Re: Greece >> Greek Cup 02-03 Feb PAOK keep a clean sheet for 9 games in row, winning (6-0-0) by at most 2-0 (but usually 1-0). Giannina have scored 9 goals at 10 games at home. Some of the most productive players of both teams are out or in doubt: Saitiotis (5), Sicis (2) out for home team; Ivic (6), Vieirihna (5) Endihno (doubtful) for PAOK, while Muslimovic will play but is in recovery period. In the last cup match Giannena played full defence, and won the game at ET, sth I expect to happen again today* Under 2.5@ 1.50, and if you play 12bet, [email protected] * i mean, play full defence, not won at ET! :D
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PAS Giannina - PAOK: 6.75 - 3.45 - 1.70 Panathinaikos - Kallithea: 1.10 - 10.00- 20.00
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Re: Greek Super League 30-31/1 i wrote "rumor". So, it wasn't injury problems or sth that can be read on the papers.. Anyway, final result 1-0 ;)
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Re: Greek Super League 30-31/1 Better avoid Levadiakos. By the results, there are no more than 30% change to win, but there is a sound rumor down here that this will not be a fair match...
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Re: Greek Super League 17-18/10 Hard to tell. panathinaikos is really strong this year, but Kavala is the top team in fouls! without taking so much cards (Fouls commited: 133/6 games, Card received 16) Panathinaikos wont lose, but im afraid the possibility of a low scoring game with too little play time, because of VERY strong physical game from home side. If this dont happen, if refery dont let it happen, Panathinaikos will win
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Re: Greek Super League 17-18/10 What you write about Xanthi is right, but be carefull with Larissa. They had to change (sell/buy) about 5 or 6 of their starting 11 this summer, and took a long time 4 them to be a team. Not defensive oriented at all. They have their moments. In the last game againts Panathinaikos they were really good, (maybe for the first time) despite the 4-0. They had good ball circulation, 15 final attemps and 2 shots on post! Larisa's final attemps(goals) from day 1 to day 6: 15(0)-10(0)-9(2)-6(1)-9(0)-15(0) Xanthi's final attemps from day 1 to day 6: 14(1)-0!!(0)-9(0)-8(1)-4(0)-8(1) The average in greece is about 10(1). If its true that Larisa finds out last years form, they will try to win the game from the beginning. Plus, 5/6 of Xanthi's games had score in first half!
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Re: slovenian league 11-13 september I found single win @2.37 (willhill). Unfotunatelly, Koper is back one after 30 mins. :(
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Time GMT+2 12 Sep 2009 16:45 Larisa - Atromitos 1.77 3.16 4.49 19:00 Aris - PAS Giannina 1.61 3.33 5.60 19:00 Olympiakos Piraeus - Kavala 1.15 6.25 13.53 13 Sep 2009 16:45 Asteras Tripolis - PAOK 3.33 2.94 2.17 16:45 Ergotelis - Skoda Xanthi 2.38 2.91 2.97 19:00 Levadiakos - Panionios 2.81 2.92 2.49 19:00 Panthrakikos - Panathinaikos 8.21 3.97 1.38 21:15 AEK - Iraklis 1.47 3.67 6.69 my first thoughts: Lay Larisa Back Ergotelis Lay Levadiakos
Mexico > Primera Division > 2011-12
in Other North America Predictions
Posted
Re: Mexico Primera Division 2011 Thread San Luis vs Pumas: What do you think for a g/g bet?