bigbaby11
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Posts posted by bigbaby11
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Re: Champions Lge Qual (18/08/2009) Olympiacos 71 Antonis Nikopolidis 4 Olof Mellberg 7 Luciano Galletti 10 Diogo 11 Jaouad Zairi 14 Michał Żewłakow 15 Raúl Bravo 20 Dudu 21 Avraam Papadopoulos 25 Enzo Maresca 28 Cristian Raul Ledesma Sheriff
- 1 Stanislav Namaşco
- 5 Vazha Tarkhnishvili
- 7 Andrei Corneencov
- 10 Aleksandr Erokhin
- 11 Alexandru Suvorov
- 14 Benjamin Balima
- 15 Igor Karpovich
- 17 Florent Rouamba
- 18 Constantin Arbănaş
- 21 Amath Diedhiou
- 22 Luis Antonio Rodriguez
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Re: Champions Lge Qual (18/08/2009) "Cesc Fabregas, who netted twice in the Gunners' 6-1 demolition of Everton at Goodison Park at the weekend, is also rated "50-50" according to the broadcaster. Denilson, who also scored on Saturday, is also doubtful, as is defender Bacari Sagna. Celtic have injury problems of their own, with Dutch defender Glenn Loovens having limped out of Saturday's 3-1 at Aberdeen with a knee problem, and dynamic winger Shaun Maloney troubled with a knock during the same game. Gary Caldwell should return to the Bhoys' back four after being suspended for the weekend trip to Pittordrie."
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Re: Champions Lge Qual (18/08/2009) "Arsenal have received a blow ahead of the first leg of their Champions League play-off game with Celtic, according to Sky Sports News, who are reporting that Theo Walcott will miss the tie with injury."
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Re: International Friendlies & Qualifiers 12th August 2009 Argentina: Defenders: Javier Zanetti (Inter Milan), Emiliano Papa (Velez Sarsfield), Gabriel Heinze (Real Madrid), Daniel Diaz (Getafe), Nicolas Burdisso (Inter Milan), Nicolas Otamendi (Velez Sarsfield), Martin Demichelis (Bayern Munich) Midfielders: Javier Mascherano (Liverpool), Fernando Gago (Real Madrid), Sebastian Battaglia (Boca Juniors), Mario Bolatti (Huracan), Maximiliano Rodriguez (Atletico Madrid), Jonas Gutierrez (Newcastle United), Jesus Datolo (Napoli), Juan Sebastian Veron (Estudiantes) Forwards: Lionel Messi (Barcelona), Sergio Aguero (Atletico Madrid), Carlos Tevez (Manchester City), Lisandro Lopez (Olympique Lyon), Diego Milito (Inter Milan), Ezequiel Lavezzi (Napoli)
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Re: UEFA Europa League 4/6 August 2009/2010 Hamburg should be a very competitive team this year, they may have been looking ahead to this weekend.
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Re: UEFA Europa League 4/6 August 2009/2010 Gent +0.5 1.98
Gent will put up a fight at home. Don’t think they lose this game 50% of the time. A home win is definitely a possibility.:hope -
Re: UEFA Europa League 4/6 August 2009/2010 Might be some value in laying roma
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Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 Great call on Celtic guys. They deserved to go through without a doubt. Dinamo was very poor.
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Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009
Good luck Jack, don't agree with the laying of Dinamo but really like your laying of Shakhtar. Shakhtar may win but it won't be easy.Sport Football (Euro Cups) Event Dinamo Moscow vs Celtic Selection Dinamo Moscow (Lay) Strength 10/10 Date 05/08/2009 Bookmaker/Price Betfair @ 2.28 (Lay) Reasoning Despite losing the 1st leg 1-0 at home I still fancy the Bhoys to get it right in Russia tonight. Dinamo certainly showed they are a good side at Parkhead but overall Celtic were the better side in that game and simply couldn't put the ball in the net. Marco Fortune missed a few sitters along with Samaras and they know they can't let that happen tonight. Moscow are a good club but they don't have the stature of Celtic and with an extra weeks training behind them aswell as the return of influential midfielder Scott Brown, Celtic must fancy their chances tonight. Sport Football (Euro Cups) Event FC Timisoara vs Shakhtar Selection Shakhtar (Lay) Strength 10/10 Date 05/08/2009 Bookmaker/Price Betfair @ 1.80 (Lay) Reasoning I've had alot of thought over this game and in the end I think the best option is to lay Donetsk. Yes they are a much bigger club than the Romanians but as we seen in the first leg, that never goes for anything. Timisoara defended really well in Ukraine and they played some really attractive counter attacking football to grab 2 away goals. The pressure is now all on Shakhtar and there is no doubt The Romanians will believe they can do it tonight, especially with an expected huge support behind them. Domestically their home form is very good and I can see them taking a big scalp from the Champions League this evening. -
Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 what is your website?
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Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009
Well said. Always enjoy a good discussion.My estimations on that game tonight given the exact circumstances, if played over 100 times would have been as follows: Twente win = 50% Draw=30% Sporting win =20% then you simply work out the value from that either in the form of backing or laying and see what might be more profitable, but again remember, if it's the 20% turn tonight, it will take a chunk from your bankroll and in the laws of probability, these 20%er's are going to hit a lot of times in a row at some stage and for some people (that are less experienced) that causes wipeout and that's why laying (at big odds)can be a dangerous game, and is in fact how the bookmakers can be exploited by the astute punter. For the guy saying he has layed 9 teams in august, my advice would be to wait a full year to see how you get on. 9 games doesn't near allow long enough for the 'luck factor' to be eliminated. -
Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009
:cheersExcellent post BigBaby :clap -
Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 Let's figure this out mathematically. You layed lisbon at 3.10, so your odd was basically 1.32. To be profitable over 100 bets at an odd of 1.32, the game would have to end with a twente win or draw 76% of the time or more. If Lisbon wins this match 24% of the time or more this bet will result in a net loss over time. My Twente wager was at 2.50. At an odd of 2.50, Twente would have to win the match at least 40% of the time or more for it to be profitable. Let's say we both make this wager 100 times, to win 100$ each time. And after doing our research we both agree that Twente should win this game 50% of the time, a draw should happen 27% of the time and Lisbon should win 23% of the time. To win 100$ at an odd of 2.5 each time I will be risking 67$ to win 100$. Twente will win 50% of the time out of the 100 bets, so (50*100$)= 5000$ profit from the wins. My bet will lose 50% of the time (50*67$)= 3350$ net loss from the losing wagers. My total expected profit over 100 bets will be 5000$-3350$=$1650 Now let's look at laying Lisbon. Twente will win and draw 77 out of the 100 times (77%) so the net profit will be (77* 100)=7700$. It will take 310$ to win 100$ when laying lisbon so when you lose the result will be (310*23)= 7130$ The expected net profit over 100 bets when laying Lisbon is (7700-7130)=$570 Both wagers can have value over 100 bets but one is more profitable. You will win the twente ml wager a lot less than when you lay Lisbon but in the example above wagering the ml will be more profitable over time. Of course it can just as easily be that laying a team represents the better expected value. To blindly either play just the ml, or just laying is not the correct way to maximize long term profits. A combination of both is a better idea.
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Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009
Of course it's simple but.... there may be a higher expected value from the twente ml wager over 1000 bets than laying lisbon over 1000bets. Both wagers can be profitable over 1000 bets, but one will always be more profitable than the other. When he said he thought there was excellent value in Twente ml, I assumed he meant that that was the best wager with the greatest expected value. So when he ended up laying Lisbon I was confused as to why he would do that if there was more expected value in Twente ml.Laying is only backing the other two outcomes in a football match on a 100% book, (unless it's Asian Handicap of course). The bottom line is, if the price of the event(s) was better than the mathematical probability, you will win in the long run....otherwise you finish level after a thousand bets...... less commission. It's really quite simple. -
Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 Fair enough, I was confused when I saw you say you thought there was value with twente win, and decided to lay Lisbon. If you think there is value in a Twente win, it doesn't automatically mean there is value in laying Lisbon. Let's say the score was 1-1 at halftime. Twente in the second half would commit men forward and try to score because they would need to win to advance. This would open them up to counter attacks making a lisbon win much more likely than in a league game. So in this situation, yes there is value in a Twente win, but the value in laying Lisbon isn't necessarily there. Each game is a unique event with many considerations which obviously you know.
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Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009
No, I am sure you do well. The long term strategy of laying, is not a better option for the average bettor with a modest bank roll.What? Wrong about his profits going up? -
Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009
You are wrong. I will not debate with you. Good luck with all your wagers. :cheersI beg to differ mate and my records back me up. Since switching to laying from straight win bets my profits have shot up. The amount of draws that go against you are unreal... Another example tonight. Twente 1-0 up and sailing home with a few seconds to play and bang its 1-1. And thats the beauty of laying my old son. :ok -
Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 own goal 95th minute loss, tough break
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Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 its 1-2 cupi
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Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 GL Spooner:cheers If Celtic advance tomorrow, I will be the first to congratulate your winning wager.
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Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 All the best Spoonner. Like yourself I know what I am doing.
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Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009
For Celtic to advance they will need to either win 1-0 and then win in penalties (keep a clean sheet), or score at least 2 away goals and concede less. So basically they will either need to keep a clean sheet, or score 2 or more goals while conceding less. I wish you good luck, I just don't see any value backing celtic at the given prices considering what they need to accomplish to advance. :cheersThese stats are there to be broken and trust me will not last much longer, Celtic whilst not winning have put in some decent displays against top european teams away from home over the years and are no mugs. We are not comparing leagues, you forgot to mention that Celtic (& Rangers) are streets above any other team in Scotland and the debate continues on how well they would fair in the English Premiership but lets not go there... Let's just say that there are 6 good sides in Russia, I would say Dinamo are at the bottom of that pile would you not? This means alot to Celtic football club and there fans, and whilst I am not a great follower of Celtic I see that they are worth a punt here. -
Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009
I will not get into a debate over this because there is nothing to debate. A basic understanding of probabilities and mathematics is all one would need to understand why in the long run backing the ml in this situation is a better investment. Maybe you are one of the few people who can predict matches at a phenomenally high rate. Fine. I do not doubt your ability, but for the average bettor laying Lisbon is a very poor idea when they think there is value with a twente win.I disagree. We could all lump on Twente to win because the odds are excellent, but the possibilities of it becoming a draw is still quite high, even given Twente's If we ploughed all our money into what we think are "value" picks, we would be a lot worse off. It is a lot easier to pick losers than winners and given then right fundage is much more profitable over a longer period. -
Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 Dinamo Moscow ml for me, backing a team that is still in preseason mode, who hasn't won away in Europe in 6 years, is like putting money into a fire place and wondering why it got burned. Hate to break it to you guys but the Russian league is a better league than the Scottish league. It is certainly no worse overall that's for sure.
How you guys can overlook the fact that Moscow is in the middle of their domestic league is unbelievable to me.
Champions League Wed November 4th
in Champions League Predictions
Posted
Re: Champions League Wed November 4th
Very ignorant comment. I am embarrassed for you. :(