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brecki

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Posts posted by brecki

    Binchy's Lays

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Binchy's Lays Hi Binchy and all his followers, just to show what has happened so far, I actualisized my excel-sheet of Binchy`s lays using Betfair Starting Price (BSP). Regarding the chart we can see that the system still has an impressive performance. But the problem of every system - and we all know this - are EMOTIONS !!! To solve this problem we can use a simple thing here: Just don`t lay horses with a BSP under 4. Quite simple as that and your emotions and doubts will nearly disappear. We must always remember : It is absolutely normal that horses who have a BSP in the area of 1-4 often win races as the price is nothing else than another expression for the probability a selection has to win !!! I investigated Binchy`s selections and found out the following interesting facts: 30 of 98 Lays with odds under 4.00 lost = 30.6% 31 of 289 Lays with odds 4.00 or higher lost = 10.7% If we only layed the horses with odds 4.00 or higher, only one of ten horses let us down. That wouldn`t hit us too hard emotionally and we wouldn`t develop any doubts like there was a break when flat season ended or similar stupid ideas. And if you believe it or not: The total performance remains the same while the emotions and doubts are wiped off !!! What happens when disgarding low odds you can see in my excel-sheet as the chart loses much of its ups and downs and the bankroll develops more consistantly. That´s what we want and need I think. So @Binchy follow my advice: Don´t drop your fantastic work - You have found a system that is very profitable. Just take the facts I have written above into account and the fun will come back soon while the doubts will disappear. Everyone who wants to get a copy of my excel-sheet just post an email-adress here or drop a personal message including your email-adress. Regards, Brecki

    The over under experiment

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: The over under experiment

    over 2.5 goals tips: Red Bull Salzburg - Sturm Graz 1.25 :) 2-3 Wolfsberger - Wiener Neustadt 1.45 :eyes 0-1 PSV Eindhoven - Vitesse Arnheim 1.45 :eyes 2-0 under 2.5 goals tips: Aston Villa - Hull City 1.50 :eyes 2-1 FC Porto - Moreirense 2.25 :eyes 3-0 Dunajska Streda - Zilina 1.80 :eyes 2-2 Nacional - Arouca 1.65 :) 2-0 Arsenal Tula - Krasnodar 1.70 :) 0-1 Inverness - Kilmarnock 1.85 :) 2-0 Otelul Galati - Rapid Bukarest 1.55 :) 2-0
    new bank: 80 units new stake: 10% = 8 units

    The over under experiment

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: The over under experiment So here we go: Bank: 100 units Stake: 10% = 10 units over 2.5 goals tips: Red Bull Salzburg - Sturm Graz 1.25 Wolfsberger - Wiener Neustadt 1.45 PSV Eindhoven - Vitesse Arnheim 1.45 under 2.5 goals tips: Aston Villa - Hull City 1.50 FC Porto - Moreirense 2.25 Dunajska Streda - Zilina 1.80 Nacional - Arouca 1.65 Arsenal Tula - Krasnodar 1.70 Inverness - Kilmarnock 1.85 Otelul Galati - Rapid Bukarest 1.55

    The over under experiment

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Hello, I will try an over under idea here. Tips will be created using a software that is based on ELO Ratings. There will be one or two posts a week concerning the tips. I start with 100 points. Every bet is staked 10% of last Monday final bankroll. So after every Monday I freeze the bankroll to find out the stake for the following tips. All odds are taken from the bookmaker Tipico. Warning: This is a paper trial only !

    Binchy's Lays

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Binchy's Lays Hi Binchy, well that may be a step too high. Don't get greedy. Your system runs fine and has shown stable profit but as any system there are ups and downs and if you pick a down trend at the moment when rising the stakes you will get emotionally involved -and that is never a good circumstance when running a system. There is absolutely no need to move yourself out of your comfort position ! Rising the stake is ok but I advise you not to go higher than 1.5 times of the usual stake. If you want to add another factor to your system I would suggest to play higher stakes when a horse is double-nominated (in both systems). You have a sensational strike rate here !!! Best regards and good luck Brecki

    Binchy's Lays

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Binchy's Lays Hi Binchy ! I just updated my stats of your system. Still impressive ! And you have every reason to lay horses double when they appear in both systems. Since starting your thread there have been 12 horses qualifying for both systems at the same time. The results of these horses are convincing: SR: 91.67% -- 11 from 12 lost the race and 8 even didn´t place ! average odds: 7.26 odds of winning horse: 3.84 (Betfair SP) Ok, two horses with big prices finished second, but they were both beaten by half a length. Good luck for today !!! Greetings brecki

    Binchy's Lays

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Binchy's Lays Hi guys ! It was a timetaking work but now it is done. I put all of Binchy's lays in an Excel-Sheet and searched all Betfair Starting Prices. What a wonderful performance Binchy !!! I also added the placing odds and simulated laying the horses for being placed. Anyone who would like to get the Excel-Sheet just send me a personal message and give me your email adress so I can send you the sheet. Regards, Brecki

    Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th

    in World Cup 2022 Tips & Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th Hi ! For all punters who want to bet on cards in this match: I just found a wrong odd @ Tipico. They offer a 2.95 for over 1.5 yellow cards in the first half. That is much to high as other bookies have 2.15 (Betsafe) or 2.4 (Bwin) Sure, we have not seen many cards in the past games but Marco Rodriguez is under strong preasure after the out for Neymar and as the yellow cards won't affect any player to be part of the final as long as he is not sent off I wouldn't wonder to see Rodriguez showing early cards to get the mtch under control. Big Prize with a big chance !

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