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Dave in The Lakes

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Posts posted by Dave in The Lakes

    Best bet of the day 7th July

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best bet of the day 7th July 345Nmkt Baransky ew 16/1 bog bet365, ladbrokes, hills Badly needed run on debut yet still posted decent speed figure. Will have come on for that and not much to find with the fav and stablemate Bowermaster. No doubt there will be some goood horses lurking here but worth a bet at 16/1.

    Dave's Bets 2010

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Dave's Bets 2010 345Nmkt Baransky 0.5pt ew 16/1 bog generally Not the sort of race I would usually bet in but this horse needed the run badly on debut but still ran well with a speed figure only 4 lb behind Bowermaster, Godolphins other runner which is the fav. Will have come on alot for the run and although there will be good horses lurking here it's worth an ew at a big price.

    Dave's Bets 2010

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Dave's Bets 2010 410Ayr Hunters Belt 0.6pt 10/3 sportingbet. Blazing Desert 0.4pt 9/2 bog bet365. The rain has changed to the slow side of good with little more expected according to the clerk of the course so it should suit both selections. Both are unexposed-Hunters Belt was 2nd to the improving tropical bachelor lto and with the extra furlong no problem. Blazing Desert who won a hurdle over 23f has had 3 runs in a month to get a turf mark and over plainly the wrong trip lto finishing perhaps closer than desirable when 3rd over 10f. Todays 13f should be ideal as long as there isn't a lot more rain.

    Dave's Bets 2010

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Dave's Bets 2010 410Ayr I have two of interest in this race but the staking is weather dependent and with heavy rain due will hold off till later. If it remains good Blazing Desert is of serious interest but if there is ease Hunters Belt will be the main bet. May end splitting the stakes.

    Dave's Bets 2010

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Dave's Bets 2010 210Bev Cathcart Castle 1pt win 6/4 bog coral 310Snd Mawatheeq 1pt win 6/1 bog generally 340Snd Decorative 1 pt win 6/4 bog ladbrokes, bet365 450Snd Kakatosi .5pt win 3/1 bog vc, ladbrokes, Eton Forever .5pt win 11/4 bog generally Cathcart Castle rates 6lb better than any that have run on either of its 2 runs to date and doubt if a newcomer can beat it. Mawatheeq has been in my notebook since last year; a progressive horse who has won 2 on the bounce after its seasonal debut in both previous seasons; still relatively unexposed after only 9 career runs. Decorative is a class horse who is likely to progress to group races nto A pity Kakatosi and Eton Forever meet as they are both unexposed horses with more to come and I would be suprised if one doesn't win.

    Dave's Bets 2010

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Dave's Bets 2010 725bev We'll Deal Again 0.5pt ew 8/1 bog paddypower, stanjames. A tricky hcp but I put up the selection lto over 6f at Ponty in the hope the steep uphill finish would be a sufficient test but ran off the pace, stayed on strongly gaining all the time for a close 2nd. My notes from last year say crying out for 8f yet has run 4 times this season over 5/6f and todays 7.5f up the Beverley hill should be ideal

    Microsystems

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Microsystems Definitely no bet today. A good start to the second half of the year. The update bet ran poorly but Marjury Daw won easily at 5/1. There is no deduction to the advised 8/1 as one Nr was out before I posted and the second a big price. So 2pts staked and 9 returned for a 7pt profit!

    Return of the beaten favourites

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Return of the beaten favourites Hi Jay, Well done with the thread. An observation or three! 1 You can edit your posts so as you have made quite a few changes to the system since inception why dont you edit post 1 to provide the updated rules/criteria? I was confused reading it as Franklyn (above post) also appears to be. 2 Have you looked at age as in my systems I exclude a lot of older horses who are less consistant as a rule. I find flat/aw 3-5, hurdles 4-8 and chasers 5-9 to be the best age groups. 3 Do your results allow for betfair commission on all winning bets? it's fairly standard on PL to use the highest rate of deduction namely 5%. This is applied to every bet with a return of course, the way betfair itself operates and not just the net profit on the day/week etc. Good Luck with future selections. Dave

    Microsystems

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Microsystems UPDATE ADDITIONAL BET 420perth King Roonah 5/2 betfred, hills, coral Sorry but I checked the systems last night and it did not include this as it won yesterday and qualifies under my system based on jumpers winning in the last five days. I only checked after one of my mates pointed it out to me!

    Dave's Bets 2010

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Dave's Bets 2010 310Yarm Medici Palace 1pt win 7/2 bet365, tote, paddypower, ladbrokes Went in my notebook on debut; nothing startling in two subsequent runs but makes handicap debut off attractive mark for Cheveley Park/Fanshawe who also bred/trained the dam and she won 2 over 8f at 3 and was rated 96. would have preferred 8f not 7 but the visor first time will sharpen her up.

    Dave's Bets 2010

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Dave's Bets 2010 RESULTS FOR HALF YEAR-1ST JAN TO 30 JUNE 2010 As I started the thread at the begining of the year just wanted to put the results up for the 6 months so I can look back at the year end to see if I have improved in the second half. Happy with a 22% profit although really would like to put up more bets but without any reduction in the strike rate or profit. Well that is the target I have set myself for the next 6 months. bets 118 wins 41 S/R 34.5% stakes 117pts profit 25.815pts ROI(yield) 22%

    Microsystems

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Microsystems REVIEW FOR HALF YEAR-1ST JAN TO 30 JUNE 2010. As the Microsystems thread has now been operating for 6 months I thought I should do a brief review particularly as I said the turf systems would be reassessed if there was no improvement following the long losing run in early June. It will also form a benchmark to compare with the next 6 months. Well we have seen a fair level of improvement recently with 6 wins from the last 17 bets. Still not 100% happy but no need for drastic action except I will withdraw temporarily one of the flat constituents which has performed poorly in order to reappraise it. I expected about 300 bets a year but we have only had 107 so far. This was partly due to the freeze up in the winter but I expect more bets in the next 2 months and around 230/250 bets by the year end. The strike rate and yield are behind the figures I achieved last year before starting the thread but overall I am happy with a profit not far below 20% on turnover. Roll on the next 6 months! bets 107 wins 32 S/R 29.9% stakes 107pts profit 20.47pts ROI(yield) 19.1%

    Microsystems

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Microsystems 620Kemp Special Quality 5/2 bog hills, coral, stanjames, bet365 710Chep Bermondsy Bob 7/2 bog bet365, hills, ladbrokes Bermondsy Bob was 9/2 earlier and has been cut by all bookies, sorry didnt put it up earlier. Athboy Auction was poor yesterday but Ace Of Spies drifted to a suprising 11/2 and won well for a profit of 4.5pts on the day.

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