De Graaf
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Posts posted by De Graaf
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Good lord, the variance here can kill a guy.
How conservative would the stakes be?
Good luck in your endeavor.
I'm not sure how these threads work, but in case someone wants to follow, would you possibly publish a stop price with the picks, where anything above can be taken. (hope is not too sensitive)
Regards
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A peculiar fact, Swansea have won more than 30% of their matches with Shelvey starting and half that number when he is not in the team. He was sold a week ago, now a Newcastle player.
A quick mention for those that missed their last game against Sunderland, there were a lot of major decisions in that match done by the referees that could have gone either way. Three of the goals scored (Defoe, hat trick) were razor sharp with the defensive line and on another day could have been called offside. The red card swung the match and even that decision was somewhat questionable.
What is a safe statement is that Swans have lost their defensive stability and this has been going on for a while. They have conceded a lot of goals from individual errors, Fabianski could do better, and they are bound to correct this sooner rather than later. Despite the possibility of providing a better defensive performance, starting Monday, I doubt they can hold on against a decent Watford side. It should be added that the team spirit is still there, there are still sharp players that give complete effort. Youngster Barrow impressed recently.
If one picks Watford it might be better to cover the draw, pick asian line rather than european. Good call by the poster above, 3.4 is a good price, if one can shop and find the same soon , the + 0.25 or +.5 is worth taking
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On 11/27/2015, 6:56:15, Matthew said:
I'm not sure what you mean here. The only selections I had were two matches in the Bundesliga. That's the only place I saw value on that occassion. As for the others, the odds didn't justify the risk.
Hope that helps.Yes, Bundesliga matches were the only viable ones.
I was suggesting (for the other matches) that the odds difference between the required odds that your model puts out and the actual odds offered almost everywhere is so large, that maybe value was on the other side of the match. This would be another interpretation of the required odds that your model puts forth.
Does this makes sense?
So, for example, Inter in the same table, if anyone offered anything near evens on them against Frosinone, we know what happens. Since ~1.2 was offered, maybe value was on Frosinone? Now, I'm not suggesting picking Frosinone to win at very long odds, just the base ah line, whichever it is.
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Hello Matthew,
Gratz on your approach. Lovely stuff.
Have you considered what would the results be If you opposed your bet in the matches where there is a large discrepancy between min and available odds, against you?
Say last table, everyone opposed except the Germans. I am aware this probably makes no sense at all for your approach ( which I don't get to begin with), but still curious.
I am bewildered at the differences in odds. What on earth are you measuring :D... no question mark.
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Chelsea have, statistically, one of the weakest defenses in the league. Their table place is appropriate by these standards, teams that were worst in allowing opposition to create clear chances usually get relegated.
Norwich has just recently acquired their first clean sheet. Though they don't allow that many goals and defend well as a collective, they have consistently conceded at least once per match. They do good on the other side, which is a decent compensation. They didn't score only against Southampton away and WBA home.
Soton are in the top three in the defensive part per the statistics mentioned above and WBA is a Pulis side, so that happens often.
While the market is very shoddy the BTTS and over 2.5 @ 365 @ 2.37 looks good as of this moment.
Push some numbers or compare prices , Norwich to score is bound to be underestimated somewhere, despite hosts bad rep recently.
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It is a horrible idea.
Even if you find value at low odds as you describe, and bet percentage of your bank to start with, swings(meaning variation) from a treble are a real headache.
My uneducated opinion is don't do it, you are bound to lose.
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Not sure how many people are aware but Liverpool have the lowest goal to shot on target accuracy this season in the Premier League ... the season QPR were relegated they had a higher accuracy ... one argument would be that Liverpool cannot get any worse in the final third ( regression to the mean ) ... I personally dont see it happening at Chelsea
Even though Chelsea are one of the worst in the league this season in allowing other teams to have a clear shot on target. (paraphrasing from your own stats which I cant find atm, as far as I can recall).
On the other hand, up to 28th of August this year, Chelsea have lost just once in 99 matches under Mourinho. Southampton two weeks ago was that big of a surprise.
In general, teams under Mourinho go through unbelievable spells of being undefeated at home turf.
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Newcastle vs Arsenal - btts 1.8 @ 365 1% There has been 34 goals scored in the last 9 matches between these two. That includes that infamous 4-4 result that bumps the average a little bit. Arsenal are dominant in the h2h losing only 3 matches in the last 28. That includes 4 draws and 4 wins at St. James. Even the new Toons manager has a very bad record against Wenger. Arsenal have made the most attempts on goal this season in the league, a joint number with another team, and yet are paradoxically not scoring any goals.This is particularly glaring as Arsenal play a peculiar brand of football, they take an unbelievable percentages of their shots from inside the box. Teams that know how to pack the box usually do well against them. They haven't scored in 5 out of 9 going back to last season, and 2 out of 3 in this one. Some people blame their tall man Giroud for that and as luck would have it he would like this fixture, scoring 8 goals in the last 6 matches against Newcastle.The whole team in general creates chances and the goal scoring drought is bound to change sooner than later. It took years to accommodate both Ozil and Cazorla in the middle and now it is done with Ramsey becoming a winger, again. Same lineup is expected. From the last 3 matches it is obvious that Arsenal cannot play consistently for the whole 90 minutes. Both starting defenders are doubtful for this one with Koscielny more likely to be eventually included. Replacement duo Chambers-Gabriel is not on the same level, with the former providing a very poor performance in the last match, especially in the first half. Arsenal have a rather difficult September to look forward to with Chelsea, Stoke and Leicester in the league, Spurs in the cup and two CL matches. They need the points here to avoid another disastrous August. Same goes for Newcastle, winless in the last three and a loss here would ruin the memory and the momentum from their last match. They adjusted in that match aganst United after a very turbulent start, so it is not a given that they are suddenly very sound at the back. Their captain Coloccini was phenomenal on the day, but I doubt he can repeat that week in week out. Janmaat is back after a suspension at right back, replacing the inferior Mbemba. They can pose problems up front, they look good in that department. Perez shined in the last match, Wijnaldum is very good, Thauvin could have caused an upset at Trafford.The latter did score and assisted in mid-week in the cup. Both clubs overperformed defensively last weekend and wasted good opportunities. Line for overs opened at 1.8ish, went a bit up and is now holding steady at the sime price. I'd still rather take BTTS to cover a more likely 1-1 result rather than a full blowout. It is 1.8 @ 365, horrible odds ( 1.8 - 1.9 for yes - no). Despite that my guess is that those odds will end lower than 1.8. Boyle has 1.83 at the moment of writing if you like that bookie.
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Why not? Hope it's not an intrusive question.Wouldn't betfair exchange be a better indicator of WoC than pinnacle? I looked into this a few years ago, ie using betfair to identify value in bookmakers prices. I cant remember the details but I had to give up on it - it wasn't profitable. -
The most likely explanation for this kind of circumstances is that your calculation is wrong. That kind of discrepancies between fair and market odd seldom exist. Just a suggestion, hope you don't find it rude.
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Slovakia vs Macedonia New coach for the Macedonians and this will be his first qualifier. He is well honored and famous as player, but rather unknown quality as a coach. He did work with the Serbian national team prior to taking this job. My guess is at least more conservative type of play in comparison to what the former coach Gjurovski advocated. 4-5-1 it is to be expected. Central defender Shikov and striker Kostovski are out. Both were likely to start. Lots of young blood has been infused in the squad in the last year or more and there is some talent at present. With a change of scenery at the coaching position there is too much unknown and so I'd suggest against betting Slovakia to win to nil. There is the margin of likely possibility though and an upset tonight is very unlikely. Slovakia are perfect so far, this match can well confirm their presence in the EC. A curious factoid, Slovakia is the nation with the biggest goal difference in h2h matches against Macedonia, 12 to be exact. reverse fixture ended 0-2 in Skopje. Convincing first half display after which the visitors saw the game out. Line is at -1.25 ~ 1.85 , worth taking. medium stakes (1-1.5%).
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Re: Copa America 2015 I was intending to put some good words about Jamaica. They have a German coach, good one at that and they have tended well to the national squad for over 5 years now at least. Many players are involved in the English leagues, so there is an international club experience and at least half of the team is extremely well built. Above average. They run fast and push hard. Watched their records for the last 3-4 years and they have stable matches , near losses and winnings. Granted many of those are matches played against Caribbean teams, but not all of them. Two exceptions, 8-0 thrashing by France and 3-1 by Canada. I have seen their matches around the time that France happened, this was last year in friendlies in USA right before the World Cup. They did a very solid friendly against Serbia, lost the match but they were a threat and a good match against Egypt ( 2-2). I've seen a few articles describing them as complete outsiders, "just to fill the group" written between the lines, I'd say this isn't so. They have a decent level of organization and decent players. Anyhow, my intention was to make a case for the asian handicap on them tonight. Thing is while there are many written pieces about how many goals will Uruguay push against them, line is at 1.25 -+ actually. ( I was looking for a decent +2 odds on Jamaica, they don't exist) Uruguay -1 is at 1.57, and -1.25 close to evens. Looks good even at this late stage. Now to sneak a question, is anyone familiar with Paraguay and the way they play this last year or two years? I remember them as very positive and forward-minded. My idea is an attempt at Argentina to win and btts. it is around 3 where I come from. How would you rate the chances of Paraguay scoring tonight?
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Re: UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers > Saturday June 13th There are changes with the visitors Serbia, namely a change of coach and atmosphere. New coach is Curicic, this is his first qualifier. They have been dreadful so far, which is what you are pointing out. Thing is, it is do or die moment for them, this and the next qualifier game. Remember, they are very highly ranked and look quite good as a team on paper, some may say better than the Danish. It is expected with the new coach and a different approach they will make a final push, starting tonight. It is also personal, as they lost the reverse fixture 1-3 in Belgrade. There have been positive signs in friendlies so far for the Serbians. Public opinion is indeed divided, some see here a possibility for the Serbs to take all three home, some see value on the Danes. It is never enough to say that one team needs this and they are going to get it due to change in attitude and circumstance. I am on btts as I expect for Serbia to try and win it, they have a solid back, but have to approach this more open. Edit: Curcic*
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Re: UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers > Saturday June 13th Rep. of Ireland vs Scotland opta:
- The two nations have met 10 times, with each team winning on four occasions (D2).
- Ireland's only previous competitive victory against Scotland came back in 1987, when the two sides met in the European Championship qualifiers (1-0).
- Scotland have won three and lost none of their last four European Championship qualifiers, including a 1-0 win over Ireland last November.
- Ireland have kept just one clean sheet in their last nine competitive matches, shipping 11 goals in total.
- James McLean has scored with two of his three shots on target for Ireland in qualification.
- Similarly, Scotland's Shaun Maloney has netted four goals from just six shots on target, including against Ireland in November.
- James Morrison has completed more passes for Scotland in this qualifying campaign than any other player (242).
- Wes Hoolahan has created three goalscoring chances for Ireland in European qualifiers, with two of them resulting in a goal.
- Northern Ireland have won three of their previous five matches against Romania, losing the other two.
- In fact, Romania have won their last two meetings with Northern Ireland by a 2-0 scoreline.
- Kyle Lafferty has scored five goals from just 10 shots on target for Northern Ireland in this qualification campaign.
- No player has recorded more assists in the 2016 European Championship qualifiers than Romania's Lucian Sanmartean (3).
- No team has kept more clean sheets in this qualification campaign than Romania (4) - level with England, Belgium and Iceland.
- Oliver Norwood has created more goalscoring chances for Northern Ireland in this qualification process than any other player (10).
Courtesy of WH via opta
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Re: UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers > Saturday June 13th Line is at +6, quite above evens, in the Gibraltar match. Why attempt a +4? Looks tempting. Bear in mind that 2 out of the last ten matches involved 7 goals, one visiting Ireland and the other with Scotland. Germany can top that, b squad or not. Another thing worth mentioning, on the state map of Gibraltar the pools and the tennis courts are marked. It is that big. There are 3 players with the surname Casciaro, cousins or possibly brothers, all possibly involved in the starting eleven. One of the cousins scored the winning goal against Malta in a friendly recently. One of them is a policemen apparently, which is good. One hopes that an island full of bookmakers and bankers will involve the police and fire department in the more physical activities. Imagine picking the absolute best players from your neighbourhood (hoping you include yourself) and playing a qualifier against the reigning world champion tonight. Gibraltar lost by 4 goals in the reverse fixture in Germany which is good news. On the other hand, if there is a nation that doesn't play "just for fun" it is the Germans. It is a risky bet, I'd say is definitely better to stay away if going heavy on your stakes, or some extremely minor punt on the underdogs as to enjoy the game later on.
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Re: UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers > Friday June 12th I'll start by making a case for Norway. Watched them in the last friendly against Sweden, they played positive, created opportunities and were the slightly better team on the night afaik. Unlucky to score. The kid Odegaard provided a very enjoyable display, he'll be pivotal tonight. On the other flank Elyounoosi was rested and involved as a sub. Norway are 3rd atm in the group, with the 1st and 2nd playing amongst each other. Excellent opportunity to close the gap, as they have home advantage and a weak visitor. Remember, it is the 6th round of a total of 10. Odds are probably sub-par, can't make an educated guess unfortunately. I have the option though of a home win and Norway to score at least two @ 1.6 which I find tempting, similar combo style market should be available at the eu bookies. This is in an accumulator with Bulgaria, per Simeon's advice. He's local and provided good info above. Watched Bulgaria in their last friendly against Turkey and were unlucky not to lead at half-time. Lastly, I'd add the btts on Iceland- Czech Rep. It should be a thrilling contest, iceland are perfect at home so far , i expect them to be tested. Their only loss so far comes from a visit in Prague. Visitors will be even more motivated as time progresses, being outside of the Euro finals for many years now. They don't play as calculating as one would expect away from home though. There should be opportunities on both sides. As a whole this is a dreadful approach to betting, but micro stakes and having a go outside your portfolio is what is suggested. Norway and Bulgaria to win and score at least two goals, Iceland vs Czech Rep. - BTTS ~ 5.77 @ local, should be similar @ eu bookies
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Just browsing through some sports news on sky, stumbled upon a reference that West Ham United gained entry into Europa League next season. Well, qualifications for the competition, to be exact. http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/football/32889068 These are the rules and guidelines. http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/matchday/fair-play-calculation.html Anyone has any opinion on this? What's your take on this fair play system? regards K, I'm very ignorant about this thing. Just as I posted this , I found another link about Arsenal winning it two years before. It has existed for some time apparently. First time I hear about it. My bad. Delete thread if you feel it is outdated and brings nothing for discussion.
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Re: Arsenal v AS Monaco > Wednesday February 25th Well done to the posters that put some good words about Monaco. Thorough disappointment. And to lose on such basics.
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Re: Club Friendlies 2014 USA GOALKEEPERS: Sean Johnson (Chicago Fire), Jon Kempin (Sporting Kansas City), Nick Rimando (Real Salt Lake) DEFENDERS: Matt Besler (Sporting Kansas City), Steve Birnbaum (D.C. United), Matt Hedges (FC Dallas), Jermaine Jones (New England Revolution), Perry Kitchen (D.C. United), Shane O'Neill (Colorado Rapids), DeAndre Yedlin (Tottenham Hotspur) MIDFIELDERS: Michael Bradley (Toronto FC), Mix Diskerud (New York City FC), Luis Gil (Real Salt Lake), Miguel Ibarra (Minnesota United FC), Lee Nguyen (New England Revolution), Dillon Serna (Colorado Rapids), Brek Shea (Orlando City), Wil Trapp (Columbus Crew SC) FORWARDS: Jozy Altidore (Toronto FC), Clint Dempsey (Seattle Sounders FC), Chris Wondolowski (San Jose Earthquakes), Bobby Wood (1860 Munich), Gyasi Zardes (LA Galaxy). Chile GOALKEEPERS: Johnny Herrera (Universidad Chile), Paulo Garces (Colo Colo) DEFENDERS: Jose Rojas (Universidad Chile), Osvaldo Gonzalez (Universidad de Chile), Cristian Suarez (Universidad Chile), Gonzalo Fierro (Colo Colo), Erick Pulgar (Catolica), Diego Valdes (Audax Italiano), Juan Cornejo (Audax Italiano), Paulo DÃaz (Palestino) MIDFIELDERS: Gonzalo Espinoza (Universidad Chile), Marco Medel (Santiago Wanderers), Jaime Valdes (Colo Colo), Bryan Carrasco (Audax Italiano), Cesar Valenzuela (Palestino) FORWARDS: Roberto Gutierrez (Universidad Catolica), Mark Gonzalez (Catolica), Andres VÃlches (Huachipato), Angelo Sagal (Huachipato), Juan Delgado (Colo Colo). Klinsman with a 3 man defense, Jermaine Jones at the center of that defensive line as a sweeper. Altidore and Dempsey in fornt for Usa, could be interesting. Chile are still with the Bielsa system 3-3-1-3 via his pupil, the present coach. Mostly players from the local league and mostly from a very small number of teams, so they all know each other. Since it is a friendly game, there should be goals here. If you can find some good odds on it these late. Compare with the opening lines for this maych and make your calls. Regards
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Re: Everton v West Bromwich Albion > Monday January 19th Such a wonderful coach. In general the handicap on WBA may have some value to be taken, especially earlier if one bets small stakes. They are two out of two with this master of a coach so far. Granted, it could have gone to the hosts, but the organization and discipline is there for this Pulis side. Tough to beat.
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Re: Sunderland v Manchester City > Wednesday December 3rd Sunderland +1 @ evens or bigger, average stake 1-1.5 % Price peaked at 2.15 average, anything over 2.1 is good at this point. Practice makes perfect. Hosts are expected to adopt a similar game as their last match and I'd expect them to do better this time. The fact that they play a similar skirmish in such a short time goes a long way towards their benefit. Against Chelsea they had the better opportunities to take the game, even though they were fewer. Maybe Buckley will be involved here on the wing. Set pieces and counters are what makes the difference for the hosts here, Johnson and Wickham will probably run the flanks, the latter will bully defenders. Fletcher or Altidore, each one has the physicality to make a difference in a make-shift City defense. One hopes that Sunderland are not pushed with their backs to the wall, wingers helping defenders on the flank, due to Clichy and Zabaleta on the other side. This made a tremendous difference in the Saints game for City. Boyata or Sagna will partner up with Demichelis in the back, one cannot guess what kind of game they will have. You can say that Boyata is a weaker player with not enough playing time, sometimes it goes the other way and an unfamiliar face plays a fantastic game. In general, City have a hot and cold defensive performance this season, even with the first eleven. Many mistakes. You never know which Joe Hart shows up. Who scores first is vital, so the opening 20-30 minutes are. While an under bet is fantastic at the price mentioned above there is a reason why such odds are available to begin with. The fact that the last four matches ended 1-0 for the hosts have no importance whatsoever on tonight's match (meaning the number, not the fact that the hosts are a boogey team). An early goal may turn this into a riot. Recall the Sunderland- Chelsea match last season. This is taking into consideration that Sunderland, very rarely but still, happen to just shut down after an inferior position. A small factoid, only once in the history of the Premiership has a same result occurred in five consecutive matches between the same opponents in the same ground. I'd bet against that.
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Re: Manchester United v Stoke City > Tuesday December 2nd Good point m8, I do underestimate united. When ashley young saves a goal from the line, that's what it is about. De gea is amazing. I'm curious, I looked at a table earlier of the ManU -1 at the asians (average of pinny, sbo and others), it went up from 1.7 to 2.0 in less than an hour at 16 pm today. I guess you know the limits and how the lines would move at say pinny, what kind of money would do that?
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Re: Leicester City v Liverpool > Tuesday December 2nd
The same thing will happen in this match for sure, hosts have a number of players that can run well. It may be the case that Ulloa, their striker, have been found out by opposing teams after a good start. There is the opposite argument, Pool are one of the worst teams in the league when defending set-pieces and crosses. Maybe not statistically, but they had their moments this season when they were absolutely horrible. That is a thing that goes a long way towards the hosts and their style of play,especially taking Ulloa into consideration. Another thing that was obvious from the last match (Leicester) was that their defense is not up to standards, in contrast to the opening fixtures of this season. They are all over the place and one cannot hope they will mend this overnight. Even though it's been mentioned that Lambert is an average forward and old and so forth, he is excellent for the team as a whole and the best option Pool have in the moment. Always links well with people and holds the ball good. One hopes he can play consecutive matches with the same consistency. Another small punt for goals here. Leicester being poor in the back lately is what one can expect from this match, so contrary to many of the recent matches Pool played I have a go on over 1.5 on the visitor. Granted it is my local and offers almost evens on this, but if one can find a similar price, it is not a bad opportunity. Pool over 1.5. I do expect Leicester to not pack their box and make an attempt to win this in front of a packed house. More open game, I suppose.They tried to hit them on coutner-attacks because all of Lpool players were attacking,leaving open spaces in their own half. -
Re: Manchester United v Stoke City > Tuesday December 2nd Odds have dropped from the average opener (look at Aidy's post) during these last few days and then plummeted up from noon today up to now. If there is anytime to pick the asian line on the hosts it is now. ManU -1 @ evens look good for those that fancy them. By now I mean at least half hour before kick-off, usually a mess happens in the last minutes. I'd make a note once more of what Yiddo last said, Stoke are on the up this last month comapred to the opening matches of this season and are quite strangely a better team while away and an underdog. City, Spurs and Pool may note be your preferable sample to compare (Spurs blowing hot and cold especially @ home, same for the other two in general) but they are strong teams and there is too much risk involved of what is the new Wigan if you will, this Stoke side. I'd rather go in the poorer goals market with smaller stake than this indifferent price on the hosts even though it is up. Stoke have been close to scoring in all the matches that they didn't, these last month, and I'd fancy them to do it here. Odds are not that bad really. Regards
Introduction to Monitoring Probability Strategy
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
I think you are trying to measure degrees of standard deviation... Does this makes sense to you?