rossom
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Posts posted by rossom
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread
Pain in the ass when a saddle slips but its part and parcel of the game unfortunately. I know from personal experience that with some horses when you are doing up their girth they exhale or bloat and what is a perfectly tight girth for the horse at the time is too loose when a horse is breathing normally. That said, most horses who do this will try it on every time as opposed to once and it shouldn't really be happening on a race course if the person tacking up is familiar with a horse. In relation to skullduggery and foul play afoot, I don't think (and this is only from a very vague personal knowledge) that a handicapper has ever dropped a horse in the ratings from a saddle slipping.Perhaps I'm talking out of my pocket a little, as it's just happened to the horse I backed at Ludlow in the 1:30, but I have always thought that this has to be one of the most unprofessional things to occur during racing. Unprofessional because the trainer did not ensure that the saddle was fastened securely and that opens the door to other theories of skullduggery. All the majority of us want to see is the horse run an honest race! Has Fergal O'Brien been mixed up in anything before? What action do the stewards usually take when this happens? This was the second leg in a L15 of mine (first won) and have got Lean On Pete and Malin Head completing the foursome. I'll be pissed if the other two win! -
Re: BBOTD Thursday 9th of August 7.15 Sandown Educate 33/1 1pt win Bet365 Ishmail Mohammed's 3 year old is the biggest monkey in the world and if you look at his last two starts you'll see exactly what I mean but I think he is clearly a very talented horse and if his trainer has rectified his quirks in the past 20 days then I think he could go extremely well at a massive price. Regardless of what happens tomorrow, if Educate is ever gelded then I'm going to be all over him as it should definitely settled him down a huge amount. However, after clearly showing signs of significant inexperience in his 4 starts to date I'm hoping his precocious nature will have hopefully settled down. This colt made his debut over tomorrow's C+D less than 2 months ago on soft ground at Sandown when running a very eye catching 7th. After being posted out wide, he was outpaced slightly before getting the hang of things in the home straight. He tried to make a forward move but on at least 3 occasions his path was blocked and he clearly had an absolute ton left in the tank as he came home in nearly a walk to be beaten by only 8L. That looks a pretty good maiden with the top 3 rated 90, 85 and 83. However, he made no mistake on his next start as he got off the mark in style. 12 days after his debut Educate was again campaigned over 10f this time on good to firm ground at Yarmouth where he ran out a ready and impressive winner. After sitting just behind the pace, he travelled into the race extremely well and when asked to quicken and go and win his race he hung a bit and again showed he was still very green. He eventually responded to O'Shea's urgings and he readily drew clear in impressive fashion to score by an easy 6L. The form of that race doesn't look too bad with the 2nd finishing a neck beaten 2nd off a mark of 67 in a handicap after this. Regardless of the form, he definitely won like a horse with considerable talent. His last two starts are where his quirks have come to the fore and its clearly a major concern tomorrow but I think that is factored into his price tag. He made his handicap debut off a mark of 82 at Newmarket in a Class 3 event on heavy ground on the 14th of July. After settling towards the rear, he was rather keen for the first 4 or so furlongs and he was still clearly a bit green. Turning into the long home straight, Educate made some eye catching progress on the bridle and when Tadhg O'Shea started to get at him under hands and heels he was making progress better than anything. Then the whip came out and Educate lost the plot. He veered left and right multiple times, back and forth and he ended up throwing his chance away. He was eased in the final furlong but despite all this he still managed to finish only an 8L beaten 5th in what I think looks a decent handicap, although much of the form hasn't been tested. A week later he came back to the same Newmarket course and it was no surprise to see a visor applied for the first time. Under Jack Doyle, Educate was settled in the rear of the 6 runner field and he seemed to settle much better. With about 3f to go, Doyle angled Educate out and he began to make progress before Doyle brought the whip through into his left hand. As soon at that happened, it appeared as if Educate was spooked and he hung violently to the left. Knowing his chances to win were gone, Doyle stop exerting maximum pressure and after all of this he was only beaten by 4L in what again looks a decent handicap. The winner Prussian and the 4th home Prophesy both ran very good races as Glorious Goodwood to give depth to the race. In his 20 days off the track, I really hope Mohammed has worked tirelessly to remove the quirks of this recalcitrant character as its preventing him from reaching his full ability. It could easily be a case of him being afraid of the whip but he seems a rather wound up individual. The visor remains on him and hopefully he's garnished enough experience to allow him to race straight under maximum urgings. Ismail Mohammed is a new enough trainer to UK shores but he had great success in his native Dubai including training the winner of the UAE Derby and 1,000 Guineas so he clearly is a talented trainer. He's only had runners in the UK since May and from his 42 runners to date his only winner has indeed been Educate so it seems as if he finding his feet. However, his last 2 horses have finished 2nd so it seems as if he is getting the hang of things. Although Ahmed Ajtebi is having his first ride in the UK for Mohammed, he is a very eye catching booking in my eyes given that the pair regularly teamed up in the past to success in Dubai. Tomorrow's favourite Royal Empire could easily turn out to be a Group horse given his impressive debut performance but I've got to take him on on his turf debut off a mark of 90 at his current price. Although significant risks are clearly attached to him, I think he's got a much better chance than his current 33/1 quoting and if putting his best foot forward I envisage him running a massive race off 81 which should hopefully see him return to the winners enclosure. If not, I can see his balls being chopped off very soon
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Re: BBOTD - Wednesday 22nd Feb
Not having a go or anything but Just intrigued if the horses you put up have to be early market movers as it seems a criteria that I notice a lot with your selections.*Lambro Lad - Doncaster 4:05* Has been out of sorts on its last 3 outings, but previously had shows good form and hacked up at Uttoxeter in 2010. Runs off a very leniant mark of 110 tomorrow, and the booking of Jamie Moore catches the eye. Has had another 93 day break and could strip fit tomorrow, there has been a tad bit of support for it in the market already which is a plus. Still not a lot of miles on the clock, Peter Bowen does well at Doncaster and Moore does well when he rides for Bowen. *0.5 Points e/w @ 22/1 VC BOG* -
Re: BBOTD Sunday 12th of February 2.10 Leopardstown Burn and Turn 25/1 - 1pt win PP Going to take a chance on Jessie Harrington’s 6 year old mare that I have been following for a while. Burn and Turn went straight into my notebook in May of last year when she was very, very impressive when landing a bumper at Punchestown. She showed a phenomenal turn of pace when asked to quicken that day as she scooted clear to win by 9L although it could easily have been more. The form of that bumper race is unbelievably strong with 8 of the horses in behind winning subsequently, including 4 who have won at least twice. After that and after a 5 month break Burn and Turn disappointed in a similar event at the same track but she really didn’t seem to like the heavy ground and I am willing to discount that run. Burn and Turn made her hurdling debut in a Grade 3 event at Navan over 2m back in November where she put in what I thought was a very promising debut to finish a staying on 8.5L beaten 3rd, with the winner Il Fenomeno reopposing tomorrow on 4lb worse terms. I think that Burn and Turn will be able to reverse the form of that race based on a number of reasons. Il Fenomeno had already made 4 starts over hurdles and Burn and Turn is certainly entitled to get closer with a couple of hurdling runs under her belt. Furthermore, the 4lb weight difference as well as the 2f further, which I think should ideally suit Burn and Turn, lead me to think that she certainly has enough in her locker to finish in front of that rival. On her latest and 2nd start over hurdles Burn and Turn emerged victorious 2 weeks ago at Leopardstown in a 2m maiden hurdle. On ground again that was probably softer than ideal, Burn and Turn stuck to her task well to win by 2.75L. It wasn’t that impressive visually and the margin of victory wasn’t great either but she beat what was put in front of her and it at least got her off the mark. Tomorrow represents a big step up in class as she tackles Grade 1 Company on her 3rd hurdling start but Jessie Harrington is one of the shrewdest judges around and she wouldn’t be running unless she felt she had a chance of landing this. Sous Les Cieux and Cash and Go set the standard tomorrow and are very solid benchmarks and Nicky Henderson’s raider Captain Conan was successful in a Grade 1 on debut for the yard and could be anything but I don’t think anything in this race is overly special. The current yielding ground should suit a lot more than her victory on soft LTO with her impressive bumper win coming on good ground and I think the extra 2f will be ideal. Although its a bit annoying only 2 places are paid, I think she is overpriced at 25/1. Jessie Harrington is in absolutely belting form at the moment and if replicating the form of her bumper win last year I can see her going very close. The excellent Robbie Power takes the ride and if she’s as talented as I think she is hopefully she can cause a bit of a shock and win this.
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Re: BBOTD Saturday 11th of February
2.30 Kempton May's Boy 12/1 - 1pt win Bet 365 Like the look of Mark Usher's 4 year old colt a fair deal whose latest effort I am willing to overlook. 2 starts back, May's Boy came 5th beaten 3.5L and was dropped 2lb for that effort to a mark of 76 in a race won by Sunset Kitty, who I think sets a very good standard. The Form of the race already taken a boost with the 2nd Shifting Star winning on his next outing off a 1lb higher mark. That race was May's Boy's first race for about 4 months and it looked as though he'd come on a fair bit for that race. On his last start May's Boy was desperately disappointing over C+D as he just didn't pick up at all when asked. However, I heard trainer Mark Usher give an interview on ATR earlier in the week where he said that May's Boy is in great form at present so I am willing to overlook his latest effort as an off day at the track. As a result of his last poor performance May's Boy has been dropped a further 3lb to a mark of 73 and I think he looks very well handicapped now. Although 3lb above his last winning mark, he put in an excellent 1.25L beaten 4th off a mark of 80 over C+D in a Class 4 and if replicating that form he should be very hard to beat. Another significant note is May's Boy has been dropped in grade to a Class 5 which should make things a lot easier for him today. Rachel Kneller takes the ride today and with her 7lb claim May's Boy races off an effective mark of 66 which further enhances his claims. Trainer Mark Usher is in blistering form at the moment with 1 win and 3 narrowly beaten 2nds from his last 4 runners which just strengthens my confidence in his chances today. Although this C+D winner doesn't have the best draw in stall 5, its only a 7 runner race so it shouldn't be too much of a problem. If overlooking his last effort which Mark Usher seemed to indicate during the week, I can see May's Boy going very, very close to landing this and I'm having a medium sized win bet in the hope he can do so
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Re: Barney Curley..... I think there was more to this gamble than just Sommersturm as well. In the previous race David Evans Aviso won and he was formely trained by good old Barney. Both Aviso and Sommersturm were bred by the same German gentleman so it seems as if the two yards were acting in cahoots. Even though I was on the 2nd you've got to love the good old Curley gambles!
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Re: BBOTD ~ Friday 2.55 Newmarket Afaal 100/1 Bet365 Going to take a chance on this nicely bred William Haggas debutant who is by Stallion Hard Spun that I have been following very closely. Hard Spun is a first season sire and his progeny appear to being doing extremely well over here, with 4 of the 6 that have currently seen a race course winning with the overall record standing at 6 wins and 2 placed efforts from the combined 13 runs. Furthermore, and very important for tomorrow, 3 of the horses won on their debuts so thats a big bonus as they appear to make it to the racecourse very forward. Hard Spun already boasts of a Group 2 winner in the shape of Red Duke, who was unlucky in running when trying to double this tally. Taking a look at Afaal specifically, he is quite a nicely bred gelding. He is a half brother to a 7f winner as well as half sister to the very talented Fath and Dumaani. Further to this, although his Dam Alattrah is unraced, she is a full sister to top class 1,000 Guineas winner Shadayid so Afaal definitely is bred well enough to take this contest. Trainer William Haggas has a 33% strike rate at the July course this year with his 2 year olds so I think it is significant he has waited to run Afaal at a course where is successful. Liam Jones takes the ride for Haggas and although it is a very open contest with a lot of potentially very nice types, I think the record of Hard Spun’s offspring are very encouraging and Afaal could certainly run well at a massive price.
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Re: BBOTD Monday 27th 3.45 Pontefract Amitola 12/1 win William Hill Really like the look of David Barron's filly here in what looks a competitive handicap over 6f. This lightly raced 4 year old comes here after a disappointing reappearance run at Haydock in May after a 7 month absence and is now dropped in class. However, it is safe to assume that this filly would have needed that run and will come on as a result. Amitola has won twice so far in her career, making an impressive winning debut by 6L to Kellys Eye who subsequently pieced together a hat trick at around this time last year. Amitola's 2nd victory came at Newmarket last September when winning by a neck to Midnight Martini. That day two of todays rivals finished behind todays selection, with Sioux Rising finishing 3.25L behind in 4th and Desert Poppy 4.13L back in 6th. Although these two rivals reoppose today on better terms of 1lb and 3lb respectively, I do not see this being enough to reverse the form. Just over 2 weeks after her last win, Amitola put up a very credibly 0.88L 3rd behind Dever Dream. Amitola raced isolated for the first 3f but converged with the main bunch to get pipped in the final 100 yards. Todays jockey Jamie Spencer was on board for the win and subsequent 3rd but was absent for her reappeearance, so it seems to be that the very in form Barron yard turn to Mr. Spencer when they mean business. David Barron has come into absolutely fantastic form in the last week, with 7 wins and a 0.16L 3rd from his last 11 runners, which is pretty phenomnenal. This is Barrons only runner of the day, which certainly isn't a negative. Although this is competitive, I really really fancy the chances of this filly tomorrow. With only 8 races run so far to date, Amitola is certainly open to impovement and remains unexposed. Jamie Spencer is a good jockey booking, as he is one of the best riders for delivering a front running ride that I expect Amitola to run. Favourite Girl and Who's Shirl seem overpriced to me also, while the favourite Entitled will certainly be a force to be reckoned despite an 8lb rise for winning LTO. Although Amitola has never encountered the massive uphill finish at Pontefract before, I think she will relish this steep finish as she has won and come 3rd at Newmarket that also has an uphill finish. With the yard in stunning form and the reappearnce run last month, I think that Amitola should be bang there at the finish.
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Re: New To The Horses Alrite lads! This game is fantastic once your in there, with the highs being very very high and the lows being likewise. I will echo the sentiments that it may be a fair while before you are profitable. I've a few suggestions to make. Firstly, keep a note of your bets. It will allow you to look back and see how you have done. It can also give you indications of what races you perform best in i.e maidens, handicaps etc. It will also allow you to cut out mistakes such as backing to frivolously. Another great thing I have recently come across that I think will work absolute wonders for people starting out is www.betdash.com (apologies if this is perceived as advertising). You can play for free or money, and it gives you a starting bank and allows you to bet on every race and track your bets. Firstly, it is enjoyable. Secondly, it allows you to virtually mimic a normal betting account. Definitely worth a look. Finally, I would look at the thread of our resident Monterosso. He keeps a fantastic thread on flat racing which can be located here http://forum.punterslounge.com/f13/montes-specialisation-hangovers-102pts-104152/index75.html. Have a read of his selections and you will start to see what sort of things you should be looking out for i.e importance of course form, ground, trainer etc. It is at the very least a great read. Good luck lads!
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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers (+90pts) You should give us a drunk selection. 2:00 Newcastle - Waffle - 500pts @ 4/1 (William Hill) I am really hungry and I found some crisps but I really want a waffle. Waffles are delicious and I know this horse likes food like me so he can't lose. If anybody worries about my selection here is 5 dancing cows to allay your fears :cow:cow:cow:cow :cow Cows go moooooooooo
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Re: To trade or not to trade I'd let it ride unless it was an absolutely monstrous stake and you were able to lay it off. Otherwise you have to let it ride! If you were willing to place the bet in the first place, you must be willing to lose the stake so mite as well win the most you can!
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Re: watch racing uk for free Just to let you guys know, that sportuz link is back showing racing. I have also found this site that works http://onlinesportstelevision.yolasite.com/horse-racing.php Finally, that link I received by e-mail doesn't work - surprise surprise!
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Re: The Quackers school of thought... Is ATR down? would have thought the build up would be on b4 now...
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Re: BBOTD 6th May 4.15 Punchestown The Hard Hat 12/1 1pt win (but hopefully looking for a drift tomorrow) Fancy the chances of Colm Murphy's 7 year old in the huge 25 horse field tomorrow at Punchestown over 3m 6f. Was alerted to this horse back in February when I was told he had improved a lot from 6-7, and good things were expected. That day he ran here in Punchestown on heavy ground over 3m, travelled nicely for most of the race but faded towards the end and finished a fairly distant fifth. He didn't seem to stay the 3 miles, but I think that was in large part down to the ground. His next outing he was dropped back to 2m 4f and got up to win in a photo finish to beat Knockalyde Euro after a great late surge under the hand of Robbie Power. The Hard Hats jumping let him down 2 starts back, and I think this run can be discounted. On his final outing, Colm Murphy stepped him up to 3m 1f where he ran a great race to win by 1 1/2L to Warhead, who reopposes on 3lb better terms. It looked as if The Hard Hat would win with a fair bit in hand, but idled when he hit the front. “He wants every yard of 3 miles and he will go to Punchestown next for a staying handicap. He was a bit unlucky on his last start as he didn’t jump well."Anything bar quick ground is suitable for him. Robbie gave him a brilliant ride and he seems to be improving. He should be better over even further." which has allayed the fears I have about him staying the trip. I think he will get ideal ground tomorrow as it has been raining over here, with more rain forecast overnight. Regular jockey Robbie Power rides Jessica Harrington's Pontiac tomorrow, but I think that he didn't have a choice as his links with the stable, as opposed to choosing this horse over my selection. The capable Davy Condon takes over in the saddle, so I don't see much of a negative in this. I personally still think The Hard Hat is well handicapped, with the rain a big plus tomorrow. The horse has won 2 of its last 3 starts, and seems to be improving with every run. Murphy believes that the step up in trip will be to the horses benefit. Although this is quite a competitive race, I think there is a lot in favour for The Hard Hat tomorrow and am hopeful of a strong showing.
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Re: Flat Racing ~ Sunday May 1st Have a big tip for the 1,000 Guineas on Sunday. Have a contact in the O'Brien yard and apparently Empowering has been performing fantastically well at home. Joseph O'Brien has chosen to ride him over what looks the better proposition on paper Misty for Me, and a very big run is expected at a massive price of 40/1. Mrs O'Brien owns the horse so an all round family victory is potentially on the cards. Do with it what you will, just passing on a bit of info.
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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Flat Racing Ye me too. Should be an absolutely fantastic days racing over the weekend. Just noticed Loving Spirit is 40/1 W/O Frankel tomorrow and still a further 3 places paid, so effectively 4 unless Frankel capitulates. Heres hoping Mister Hughie runs to an incredibly awkward but smashing success tomorrow!
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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Flat Racing Agree 100% about Mister Hughie and think your onto something with Loving Spirit in the Guineas. Here's hoping you land a monster tomorrow as you definitely deserve it!
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Re: Jockeys on Facebook
Perhaps we should see how many posters are interested' date=' allocate ourselves a jockey each and let the grooming comence. I'm sure StanJames will put up a prize for the best information gained :lol[/quote'] Haha sounds like a great idea! The Stalker Olympics! How funny would it be if you successfully got a jockey as a contact, and they found this thread! -
Re: Jockeys on Facebook Before the friend request, send them the message and see if they reply. If they do, then its business time! It seems to me that jockeys and trainers alike love talking racing for the most part, so if you come across as knowledgeable, which I can safely say it seems most on this forum are, they should be more than happy chatting about common interests. I'd make sure to throw in the old non-topic racing points every now and again, so it seems like you want to get to know them as a person, rather than looking for info. Bullshit and befriending randomers are two of my best qualities! :lol
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Re: Jockeys on Facebook Best way I would suggest doing it is by finding a video of them giving a decent ride in the past and say they really impressed you that day, and perhaps won you some cash. That could act as your in and you could try build up some sort of contact from there
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Re: bbotd monday 3.10 Windsor Welsh Dresser 1PT Win @ SP Very tentative selection to say the least, but if anywhere near the forecast price of 66/1, I think its worth a small bet. Went into my notebook after making its debut in a class 4 race for then trainer P D Evans, staying on nicely towards the finish over 5f to finish 2.75 lengths away in 4th. Was sent off as favourite in its next, and indeed last race for P D Evans, where front running tactics were employed. Welsh Dresser ran an ok race, finishing a close 3rd. Welsh Dresser than switched yards to Peter Grayson, who I really don't rate as a trainer. It seems like all his horses take strides backwards once joining the yard. However, the only saving grace is that he seems to be able to get a horse ready for a gamble, which was seen with Rightcar back in January. Welsh Dresser has been running on the all weather since its first two runs, and I think the return to turf may be a good sign. In most of its all weather runs, it has shown nothing at all, bar a relatively okish run last month when he was outpaced early on over 6f, but stayed on to finish 6 lengths away from the winner alframsey. I think it is interesting that Welsh Dresser is stepped up in trip quite drastically to 1m 2f tomorrow, with all previous runs ranging from 5f-7f. Having shown ability in a class 4 race, I think that at some stage Welsh Dresser is going to be in the mix up at tasty odds. Lets hope its tomorrow!
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Sunday 3rd April 3.55 Doncaster Lutine Bell -1 PT -25/1 Blue SQ Quite like the look of Mike Murphy's sole runner of the day Lutine Bell. Has progressed well since joining Muphy, winning on his debut for the yard. Neil Callan took the ride that day, and I find it interesting that he rides again as one of only 2 rides for the day. Although he has to defy a career high mark and has looked best in recent times over further, he won over 5f and todays 6f trip earlier in his career for Sir Mark Prescott. Murphy's is in flying form at the moment, boasting a 2 wins and 2 places from his last 6 runners. Lutine Bell has not been seen since December, and hasn't gone well fresh in the past, but Murphy can get them ready after an absence as seen with Adoyen Spice in September. I'm quite confident of a big run.
Newbie here with a question
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Newbie here with a question David Duggan