Furlong
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Posts posted by Furlong
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Re: Past horse racing results Hi KThom Try this link - you can build custom reports which should help you Mike http://www.adrianmassey.com/index.php
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Re: Both Teams To Score/Correct Score Dutching System
Update: Starting Bank: £500.00 Bets: 13 Won: 10: £69.64 Lost: 3: £104.00 Profit/Loss: -£34.36 Yield: -10% Current Bank: £465.64 Todays Selection: Viborg v AC Horsens - Denmark Div 1 BTTS 1.67 B365 Fav 1-0 11.0 Bwin Fav 2-0 12.0 Bwin Fav 3-0 23.0 SBet Pot Profit: £10.50+/- Dutch Stake: £47.00Bank Now Stands At: £450.83 Todays Selection: Greece v Paraguay Int Friendly Result: 0-2 Win £14.81 :cheers BTTS 1.94 BF Fav 1-0 8.4 BF Fav 2-0 13.0 BF Fav 3-0 32.0 BF Pot Profit: £15.60+/- Dutch Stake: £45.00 System up-date after this game. -
Re: Both Teams To Score/Correct Score Dutching System
Bank Now Stands At: £450.83 Todays Selection: Greece v Paraguay Int Friendly BTTS 1.94 BF Fav 1-0 8.4 BF Fav 2-0 13.0 BF Fav 3-0 32.0 BF Pot Profit: £15.60+/- Dutch Stake: £45.00 System up-date after this game.Bank Now Stands At: £500.83 Going to change the dutch stake to 10% of bank from today and there will only be ONE selection per day. Todays Selection: Limerick v Monaghan ... Ireland L Cup Result: 0-3 Lost :wall BTTS 1.83 P Power Fav 1-0 7.7 BF Fav 2-0 11.9 BF Fav 3-0 29.00 BF Dutch Stake: £50 Pot Return: £12.90+/- -
Re: Both Teams To Score/Correct Score Dutching System
Quite surprised with the results on those losing games - but that's football! Bank Now Stands At: £500.83 Going to change the dutch stake to 10% of bank from today and there will only be ONE selection per day. Todays Selection: Limerick v Monaghan ... Ireland L Cup BTTS 1.83 P Power Fav 1-0 7.7 BF Fav 2-0 11.9 BF Fav 3-0 29.00 BF Dutch Stake: £50 Pot Return: £12.90+/-Total Bets: 8 Won: 8 Lost: 0 Total Bets: £205.00 Toatl Profit: £48.58 Yield: 24% Current Bank: £548.58 Todays Selctions: Sunday 30th May Bet No: 9 Cearav Cruzeiro ... Brazil 'A' Lost: Result 1-0 Loss: £27.50 :wall Dutch Stake: £27.50 (5% r/u) BTTS: 1.73 B365 Fav 1-0: 11.5 BF Fav 2-0: 17.5 BF Fav 3-0: 36.0 BF Pot Profit: £9.20+/- Bet No: 10 Gurani v Sao Paulo ... Brazil 'A' Lost: Result 0-0 Loss: £26.50 :wall Dutch Stake: £26.50 (5% remaining bank £521.08 r/u) BTTS: 1.75 B365 Fav 1-0: 9.0 BF Fav 2-0: 10.5 BF Fav 3-0: 22.0 BF Pot Profit: £5.70 +/- Bet No: 11 Numancia v Castellon ... Spain 2 Won: Result 2-1: Win £6.25 :cheers Dutch Stake: £25.00 (5% remaining bank £494.58 r/u) BTTS: 1.95 Bwin Fav 1-0: 8.6 BF Fav 2-0: 9.6 BF Fav 3-0: 16.0 BF Pot Profit: £6.25 +/- -
Re: Both Teams To Score/Correct Score Dutching System
Total Bets: 8 Won: 8 Lost: 0 Total Bets: £205.00 Toatl Profit: £48.58 Yield: 24% Current Bank: £548.58 Todays Selctions: Bet No: 9 Cearav Cruzeiro ... Brazil 'A' Dutch Stake: £27.50 (5% r/u) BTTS: 1.73 B365 Fav 1-0: 11.5 BF Fav 2-0: 17.5 BF Fav 3-0: 36.0 BF Pot Profit: £9.20+/- Bet No: 10 Gurani v Sao Paulo ... Brazil 'A' Dutch Stake: £26.50 (5% remaining bank £521.08 r/u) BTTS: 1.75 B365 Fav 1-0: 9.0 BF Fav 2-0: 10.5 BF Fav 3-0: 22.0 BF Pot Profit: £5.70 +/- Bet No: 11 Numancia v Castellon ... Spain 2 Dutch Stake: £25.00 (5% remaining bank £494.58 r/u) BTTS: 1.95 Bwin Fav 1-0: 8.6 BF Fav 2-0: 9.6 BF Fav 3-0: 16.0 BF Pot Profit: £6.25 +/-System Up-Date: Starting Bank: £500.00 Total Bets: 5 Won: 5 Lost: 0 Total Bets: £129.00 Total Ret: £157.41 Toatl Profit: £27.78 Yield: 22% Current Bank: £527.78 Today's Selections: Spain Segunda Div. Bet No: 6 Huesca v Real Betis :cheers Res: 0-1 Profit After Comm: £7.60 Dutch Stake: £26.50 (5% r/u) BTTS: 1.9 WH Fav 1-0: 8.2 BF Fav 2-0: 11.5 BF Fav 3-0: 27.0 BF Pot Profit: £8.00 +/- Bet No: 7 Las Palmas v Elch :cheers Res:4-1 Profit (no comm):£9.50 Dutch Stake: £25.50 (5% remaining bank - £501.28) BTTS: 1.85 Bwin Fav 1-0: 9.8 BF Fav 2-0: 16.5 BF Fav 3-0: 40.0 BF Pot Profit: £9.50 +/- Bet No: 8 Lavante v R Vallecano :cheers Res: 2-1 Profit (no comm): £3.70 Dutch Stake: £24.00 (5% remaining bank - £475.78) BTTS: 1.83 B365 Fav 1-0: 7.4 BF Fav 2-0: 8.6 BF Fav 3-0: 14.5 BF Pot Profit: £3.70 +/- -
Re: Both Teams To Score/Correct Score Dutching System System Up-Date: Starting Bank: £500.00 Total Bets: 5 Won: 5 Lost: 0 Total Bets: £129.00 Total Ret: £157.41 Toatl Profit: £27.78 Yield: 22% Current Bank: £527.78 Today's Selections: Spain Segunda Div. Bet No: 6 Huesca v Real Betis Dutch Stake: £26.50 (5% r/u) BTTS: 1.9 WH Fav 1-0: 8.2 BF Fav 2-0: 11.5 BF Fav 3-0: 27.0 BF Pot Profit: £8.00 +/- Bet No: 7 Las Palmas v Elch Dutch Stake: £25.50 (5% remaining bank - £501.28) BTTS: 1.85 Bwin Fav 1-0: 9.8 BF Fav 2-0: 16.5 BF Fav 3-0: 40.0 BF Pot Profit: £9.50 +/- Bet No: 8 Lavante v R Vallecano Dutch Stake: £24.00 (5% remaining bank - £475.78) BTTS: 1.83 B365 Fav 1-0: 7.4 BF Fav 2-0: 8.6 BF Fav 3-0: 14.5 BF Pot Profit: £3.70 +/-
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Re: Both Teams To Score/Correct Score Dutching System Bet No 5:WON: Result 2-0: Profit: £6.42 Denmark v Senegal Int Friendlies Bank: £521.36 Dutch Stake: £26.50 (5% Bank r/u) BTTS: 2.15 WH Fav 1-0: 7.5 Bwin Fav 2-0: 7.5 Bwin Fav 3-0: 13.8 BF Total Book: 80.42% Pot Profit: £6.42+/- Bank Now Stands At: £527.78 No Suitable Match Selections For Today
If you bet the same amount (£26.5) on Senegal to concede a goal' date=' you will get a minimum of £4.77 back - i.e. odds of 1.18 instead of the 1.24 (or so) that you have. Maybe that would be even better value? The chance of 4-0, 5-0 or 6-0 is typically 3-8% depending on how big a favourite the home team is. 1.18 compared to 1.24 represents a 85% chance compared to a 80.5% chance, a 4.5% difference, so it should pay.[/quote'] Hi Lardonio..The 'NO Clean Sheet' idea has been mentioned in a previous post and is something to consider. On either bet the 0-0 is of course the problem as is 4-0+ with my present system-(not with the No Clean Sheet). I could have added 4-0 to the fav score line in the last bet and the profit would have still been a little more than your suggestion above. The main problem i have found is that Betfair only have the Clean Sheet market option available on only a limited number of games; eg Ireland tonight is the only game in which that market is offered. The other thing is that i am unable to fnd any other online bookies who offer the Clean Sheet market with the 'yes' or 'no' option. I do like the idea of just having to make the one bet - bit for the moment will carry on with the original system. Thanks for the input Mike -
Re: Both Teams To Score/Correct Score Dutching System
Bet No 5: Denmark v Senegal Int Friendlies Bank: £521.36 Dutch Stake: £26.50 (5% Bank r/u) BTTS: 2.15 WH Fav 1-0: 7.5 Bwin Fav 2-0: 7.5 Bwin Fav 3-0: 13.8 BF Total Book: 80.42% Pot Profit: £6.42+/-Bet No: 4 WIN Result 3-0 Profit £3.92 Bank: £517.44 Gremio v Avaa FC (Brazil Series A) Dutch Stake: £26.00 (5% Bank r/u) BTTS: 1.67 Bet365 Fav 1-0: 9.5 BF Fav 2-0: 10.5 BF Fav 3-0: 16.2 BF Total Book: 86.10% Pot Profit: £4.20+/- -
Re: Betting underground
Take a look on this siite and watch ALL the video and then decide! http://www.bettingsystemtruths.com/scam/2010/04/26/betting-underground-review/ MikeHello everyone I just want to ask if anyone got or try the " betting Underground " system does it work ? It is worth paying for it ? thanks fabiano:unsure -
Re: Both Teams To Score/Correct Score Dutching System Bet No: 4 Bank: £517.44 Gremio v Avaa FC (Brazil Series A) Dutch Stake: £26.00 (5% Bank r/u) BTTS: 1.67 Bet365 Fav 1-0: 9.5 BF Fav 2-0: 10.5 BF Fav 3-0: 16.2 BF Total Book: 86.10% Pot Profit: £4.20+/-
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Re: Both Teams To Score/Correct Score Dutching System
Result: Score 2-2. Bet 3: Won Profit: £4.99 Total Bets: 3 Current Bank: £517.40 Total Stakes to date: £76.50 Total Profit to date: £17.44 Yield: 23%On-line again now so p/l updates and my selection for today: Number of bets: 2 Winning bets: 2 Bank Now Standing at: £512.45 Todays selection: Bet No 3 Lillestrom v Odd Grenland (Norway Tipp League) Fav: Lillestrom Dutch Stake (5% of bank r/u) £26.00 Odds: Stake: BTTS 1.67 Bet365 Fav 1-0 10.5 BF Fav 2-0 11.0 BF Fav 3-0 18.5 BF Total Book: 83.90% Pot Return: £31.00+/- Pot Profit: £5.00+/- Have taken on-board previous comments and suggestons but, for the time being, will carry on as per my original selection and staking methods. Mike -
Re: Both Teams To Score/Correct Score Dutching System On-line again now so p/l updates and my selection for today: Number of bets: 2 Winning bets: 2 Bank Now Standing at: £512.45 Todays selection: Bet No 3 Lillestrom v Odd Grenland (Norway Tipp League) Fav: Lillestrom Dutch Stake (5% of bank r/u) £26.00 Odds: Stake: BTTS 1.67 Bet365 Fav 1-0 10.5 BF Fav 2-0 11.0 BF Fav 3-0 18.5 BF Total Book: 83.90% Pot Return: £31.00+/- Pot Profit: £5.00+/- Have taken on-board previous comments and suggestons but, for the time being, will carry on as per my original selection and staking methods. Mike
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Re: Both Teams To Score/Correct Score Dutching System
Hi nubby, I like your idea and can see your point but for the moment would like to keep my system going as it is for a while..lets see how things develop first..there have already been some interesting ideas posted on here and that is good..something i would encourage and welcome Thanks for your constructive comments Mikeyou loose if the scoreline is. 0-0 0-1 0-2 0-3 4-0+ why not just lay those scorelines. there might be better odds in it and you also move all your commision into one place so you save alittle every win aswell -
Re: Both Teams To Score/Correct Score Dutching System
Maybe I'm misunderstand your system' date=' but seems to me you lose when Dag & Red keep a clean sheet, so why not just back No clean sheet for D & G that offers better odds at 1.23 and that also covers (4+) - 0 scorelines?[/quote'] First things first...last bet was a winner:cheers Second i have had major pc problems since yesterday..using int cafe at moment so afraid my postings wont be so regular for a few days Ref your post clay747, i see where you are coming from and it is something i had considered, but, and correct me if i am mistaken, isnt 0-0 score line classed as ´clean sheet´? To cover that with No Clean Sheet in a dutch bet would not be very profitable. Mike -
Re: Both Teams To Score/Correct Score Dutching System Bet No 2: Morecambe v Dag & Red (Morecambe Favourite) Not expecting a 6-0 scoreline this time with Morecambe at home.:hope Bank now standing at £507.50 Dutch bet stake will be £25.50 - (5% of bank r/u nearest 50p) BTTS Odds = 1.71 BF Fav CS 1-0 = 9.4 BF Fav CS 2-0 = 10.5 BF Fav CS 3-0 = 23.0 BF Potential Return = £30.76 +/- Potential Profit = £5.25 +/- (before comm) Total Book 82.99%
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Re: Both Teams To Score/Correct Score Dutching System
....yes flower that is correct, i am banking on the fav to score between 1 and 3 goals or both teams to score. Should the non-fav score first it would then be a matter of 'fingers crossed' and hope that the fav puts one in. I have used Fairbot in the past and yes it is brilliant for dutching. Currently use 'Betting Assistant' from Gruss Software - as good but cheaper!! Working on selections from todays matches. Mikehi tippus, as far as i can see furlong is not expecting an away win of 0:1 or 0:2 - see original post mentioning the "home favorit" etc. it is interesting and worth to keep a closer look - do you have additional information about this "fairbot" - would like to know more about it. tks -
Re: Both Teams To Score/Correct Score Dutching System
Hi Flower...! Constructive comments and interesting idea with the over 2.5 goal market. Problem there would be (given that i am not looking to win on both BTTS & CS - either will do) dropping the 3-0 score line with odds of 24 and replacing that with over 2.5 goal odds of 2.62 isn't feasable, you would make a loss of approx £1.24 on any outcome and you would have to take those odds along with the others for the CS market when 'placing' the bet. The 'risk' element with my staking plan is of course the 0-0 & 4-0 score line - thus the match criteria explained in my first post. I welcome your's, and other members comments and ideas...sometimes we cant see the wood for the trees and this is why i like others to have an input...you never can tell what might evolve. Please forgive me if I have missed something obvious re your post .. look forward to further discussion on this Mikehi m8, since i noticed yr thread i was thinking about the dutching stake etc. - both teams to score means at least a 1:1 = 2 goals you have covered the 1:0 and 2:0 with a total stake of 8.17 for a return of 32.47 - think about not going for the 3:0 but for over 2,5 goals - in case of a 1:1 (as right now) olympiakos scores a second goal (=1:2) your stakes for all 3 correct scores are gone but you will win on over 2.5 goals - doesn`t matter then if 3,4 or 5 will be scored the will hill odds for over 2.5 goals was 2.62 this afternoon - yr stake for 1:0 and 2:0 is 8.17 = stake of 3.12 for an additional small bet and you get at least yr stake back you are covering then a 1:0, 2:0,1:1, 1:2, 2:1 or any other result - best case is a 2:1/1:2 or more goals because both have scored and it`s over 2.5 = 2 bets win at the same time. will go into it a bit deeper when more time but as we all know it depends on the game and it`s result.
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Re: Both Teams To Score/Correct Score Dutching System ...thank's Merlin for the positive encouragement.... Off to a good start, bet won with an equaliser in the 10th minute :cheers No commission to deduct - BTTS score 'bet' using W Hill odds. Will post tomorrow with any suitable matche(s) Bank now stands at £507.50
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Have been looking at ways to combine various markets available on football matches into a dutching system - and there are many of course. However, after paper testing quite a few ideas have decided that maybe this one might be worth pursuing further and would like to put it up for other members to evaluate and give opinions, advice etc. Due to the fact that Betfair does not always offer the 'Both Teams To Score' (BTTS) market I will use other online bookmakers offering the best odds.. The basic criteria for match selection would be this: 1 Match must have a clear favourite 2 If Favourite is at home, must have scored in a minimum of 5 out of 6 previous home games. Use the same criteria if fav is playing away. 3 Favourite must not have had a 4-0 (or greater) clean sheet win in any of its previous 6 games. The Method To dutch 'BTTS' together with Fav 'Correct Score' of 1-0,2-0 & 3-0 'Paper Betting Bank' will be £500 using 5% of bank for each Ducth Bet placed. Many of todays games meet the selection criteria but i am going to go with 'AEK Athens v Olympiakos' AEK being the clear favourite Odds this morning: BTTS 2.1 W Hill AEK to win 1-0 6.6 BF AEK to win 2-0 10.0 BF AEK to win 3-0 24.0 BF Dutch Stake: £25.00+/- Potential Return: £32.49+/- Potential Profit: £ 7.50+/- Dutch Stake comprises: £15.47 on BTTS £4.92 on 1-0 £3.25 on 2-0 £1.35 on 3-0 :hope for this first attempt on here. Any comments (constructive) welcomed. Mike
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Re: KMAbet's Betting Exchange Strategy Interchange ......or maybe even this!!!:zzz http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/work-one-out-lunatism-where-you-96264/
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Re: Betfair Trading
A lay stake of £19.69 will show a profit of £12.07Not really ever got my head around laying. I understand the concept but not quite sure when it comes to backing and laying the same selection to secure a profit. I have backed a selection with 7pts at 5/2 and is now available to lay at 1.6, how much should i lay off to secure a good profit? -
Re: Dutching score system
It is called 'BetAid' and you can get a free version from here: http://www.lowriskwagers.com/BetAid/ MikeThanks for reply Furlong.But I was referring to the Dutching App itself. -
Re: Dutching score system
Hi I use 'UltraSnap' for the screen shots - excellent for instant shots. Once the software is opened it works in the background so you can capture any open screen (or part of it) with a couple of key strokes. I am using the Demo version only but it works just fine. Unable to print direct from the software but i just copy/paste instead. Here is the link to the 'UltraSnap' web page if you are interested: http://www.mediachance.com/ MikeThat is a nice screenshot Furlong. What is the App.? -
Re: Dutching score system
Regards Cavendish Hi The 'clever tool/calculator' is one that i use - just did a screen-shot because unable to copy/paste. Back to the calculations that seem to have some a bit confused and using the odds shown in my screen-shot, i will try and clarify the figures. The 'stake' for the lay price (£10.84) is the LIABILTY on that bet, The actual stake would be approx £15.84 So if Bayern 'lose' you would win:£15.84 less £9.17 (stakes for c/s) = £6.67 profit If score is 1-0 you would win £22.70 less £16.66 (stakes for c/s + liabilty on lay bet)= £6.04 profit If score is 2-0 you would win £23.10 less £16.97 (stakes for c/s + liabilty on lay bet)=£6.13 profit If score is 2-1 you would win £23.35 les £17.23 (stake for c/s + liabilty on lay bet)=£6.12 profit MikeThis screen-shot shows the calculations using the odds given for the Bayern game...hope this helps I also seem to have a problem grasping the stake used! Surely the stake should be the same unless you are increasing the stake in line with profits. I opened the link which would be helpful if i knew where to locate this clever tool/calculator. I already have the oddschecker link, which is a good tool but only if your backing (dutching).
Corners. Where can we get some data ?
in Betting Systems & Strategy
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Re: Corners. Where can we get some data ? Hi This site may help - it only gives overall corners per match though..no half time stats. http://www.simplesoccerstats.com/ Mike