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wiw4

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Posts posted by wiw4

    Draw No Bet Strategy

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Draw No Bet Strategy I was just looking at the selections above, the 19/20 works out 2.0 at that bookies, however to Betfair line it works out 1.78, i still you would be better working off the BF line for the true odds. Best of luck again, I wont clog anymore of your thread (used to be a pet hate of mine!)

    Draw No Bet Strategy

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Draw No Bet Strategy

    The extra 8% means you will still be accepting bets at lower than their true value surely?
    Me again, as i was driving home from work the point i was trying to make hit me. The reason i was adding on the 8% after the calculation was because when you have bet you will be betting where a price has a margin/commission built in.

    Draw No Bet Strategy

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Draw No Bet Strategy

    What I am doing is the same except I am calculating to 100% not 108%. It is this overround which gives the bookies the long term edge. By removing the 8% and looking for odds above the true value this should remove this edge. The extra 8% means you will still be accepting bets at lower than their true value surely?
    If you take betfair's 100 % as the true value, then add 8%, (which is exactly what the bookmakers do) you will be able to spot where the high st lads have the wrong/old line in their models. I see where you are coming from now though, apologies for hijacking the thread!

    Draw No Bet Strategy

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Draw No Bet Strategy

    Thanks wiw4. Are you meaning I should check for value on the bf line 1st or the bookie line? Essentially what I do is check at the same time (I've created a spreadsheet to enter the values) to see if they are out of sync. My initial check on bookmaker odds is for checking to highlight possible picks worth taking as this is more likely when the book is close to 100%. It's just to save checking every game which would be too time consuming.
    I would calculate the draw no bet price off betfair, and then check if bookies are out of sync e.g. todays match Senegal v Algeria: Senegal v Algeria 18:00

    Using the mid-points of the BF line here you get (3.075 - 3.125 - 2.8), you get DNB odds of 2.1 & 1.91. Look for bigger than this around the market. Personally, I would then calculate this to 108% like the bookmakers: 1.94 & 1.77, which would be 10/11 & 4/5 for them. Meaning there is slight value on either where the price is above that. there is some Evens available for Senegal and bits of 5/6 for Algeria. That means there is 4% better available on senegal and only 1% better availble on Algeria.

    Draw No Bet Strategy

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Draw No Bet Strategy

    What I do 1st is scan the draw no bet coupon on oddschecker and see if there are any markets close to 100%. If I find any eg 11/4 4/11 I check betfair to get a % chance for both teams then see if it is out of sync with the odds offered.
    You should probably do this the other way around, meaning calculate your price first; then look for value as sometimes the high st bookies are slow to react to bf line moves. http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/103646-Draw-No-bet-Opinions?p=1707330#post1707330

    2012 PDC World Darts Championship

    in Darts Predictions

    Posted

    Re: 2012 PDC World Darts Championship

    I think there is good value in Wade at 5/4 to beat Lewis considering he owns him! Something like a 10-1 TV record!
    The majority of these matches were in a shorter format. The only comparable previous meetings would be the Grand Prix Final 2010 and the Matchplay Semi's of 2007 & 2011. With the GP being Double-in and the Matchplay being a leg format; it is conceivable that these played into Wade's hands. Lewis should be a lot closer this time, but I have to agree that Wade is possibly a bit too big at 5/4.

    2012 PDC World Darts Championship

    in Darts Predictions

    Posted

    Re: 2012 PDC World Darts Championship Some unrreal picks throughout the thread, I'll single out Kev & Fishy for the moment, but there has been some absolute gems from all who looked in/posted. My thoughts for the rest of it: Whitlock should be favourite for this; and at the prices he is a slight bit of value. Considering he is best price 1/2 (v Hamilton) Sunday, and imo should go off (8/11 or 4/5) fav against either of Lewis/Wade; with his game the way it is; 6/4 is about the right price (5/2 around). If he even went off a 6/5 underdog against Lewis or Wade, his price still works out at 23/10 and with 5/2 out there; it is a small value.

    2012 PDC World Darts Championship

    in Darts Predictions

    Posted

    Re: 2012 PDC World Darts Championship Wade is not a 1/7 shot (Stanjames/Ladbrokes/Sportingbet) against Klaasen; dont get me wrong Klaasen was as good as he needed to be agianst a (well) below par Peter Wright; while Wade seemed to take it a bit too easy against the Crab Petr Korte. Personally, i'd be leaning towards the market general of 1/5, but favoruing the 2/9 side of Wade, meaning the 9/2 (Lads/Pinnacle/Sportingbet) Klaasen is a slight bit of value. The +2.5 Hcap for Klaasen at 10/11 (General) may be a better bet though; seeing as the format of the competion lets Klaasen roll off 3/6 legs on the trot to take a set or two *fingers crossed*. Walsh against Painter is going to be interesting. Painter got his eyes lasered during the summer, and is gradually getting back to the form of (7 years?) ago. While Mark Walsh himself has overcome (some) daemons of his own to get to the semi's of the Grand Slam Of Darts. I'm on Painter for the quarter, so am lacking a match bet here, but at the prices Walsh looks too big at 27to20 Pinnacle/5to4 32Red. As for the last match, Munch had seemingly an easy free pass into this round, while Farmer was impressive against a dodgy Baxter, the averages suggests there is nothing in this but both can hit 180's so perhaps Over 8.5 of them @ 10/11 (Boyles) is worth a bet. Although i prefer the look of Over 6 sets at 5/2 (Bet365). In Summary: Klaasen +2.5 @ 10/11 - 3pts Walsh v Painter - No Bet Munch v Farmer; Over 6 sets @ 5/2 - 5pts

    Darts: Skybet Mobile World Matchplay

    in Darts Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Darts: Skybet Mobile World Matchplay

    3 pts - Over 1.5 170 Checkouts @ 2.10 Betfred Going to get stuck with an early tournament bet. I haven't really got great reasoning for this one, but I just think with the players on show this line can be covered. Skybet currently have the same bet @ 1.83 so I think I am getting some value here, and will have a nibble with small stakes. If Simon Whitlock has a decent tournament then he could cover this bet on his own.:hope Interested to know what other people think on this one? Lets Play Darts
    Winner Alrite!
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