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Modjadji

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    National League ~ October 30th & 31st

    in Non League Predictions

    Posted · Edited by Modjadji
    Other firms prices

    My FA Trophy nap is Chalfont to beat Waltham Abbey at 1.57 Hills, Bwin & B365. I very rarely lump on short price favourites but will make an exception here, we're the top scorers and second in our league with especially Tony Mendy banging them in for fun. Our opponents are third from bottom with two wins all season (one against a side just above them) and this looks huge value. Of course we may put in a stinker and our visitors might pull out a great performance (that's football!), but they lost 4-0 at home in midweek, and we won 4-1 (should have been 7 or 8) so it would seem unlikely. This is more of a 1.25 shot for me.

    On a more general point I would oppose every team playing tomorrow in the Trophy who is still left in the FA Cup next weekend as I'm sure most if not all will be resting players for the far more important game the following week.

    Good luck :-) 

    Quick edit to the above, just noticed you can get 1.6 with 888 sport and Unibet if you have an account with them.

     

    National League ~ October 2nd & 3rd

    in Non League Predictions

    Posted

    Fleet are a ridiculous price at 4/1 to win at Molesey in the FA Trophy. I saw them beat my side Chalfont on Tuesday and although we missed a number of good chances in the first half, beating the leaders will undoubtedly have give them a huge boost. What is also noticeable is that they have already played almost of all of the top sides in their 7 games so far so their points total of 9 may well not be reflective of how good they are. The team they visit plays at the equivalent level in the Ryman League and their record of 20 points from 12 simply can't justify an 8-15 quote. I'd have the visitors around 9-4, 5-2 at the very most. 4-1 is crackers.

    FA Trophy 1st/2nd November

    in Non League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: FA Trophy 1st/2nd November No great shock that I'm backing Chalfont at 13/2 to beat Dulwich Hamlet, the price is way, way, way out and around double what I'd make it. Since the FA Cup exit we've signed made 3 excellent signings, 2 of which are already playing well having slotted in, and we haven't lost since. http://www.getbucks.co.uk/sport/football/news/saints-boss-high-hopes-three-8026430 Still too many draws for my liking but the second half at Barton last Saturday and the 3-0 home win against Aylesbury on Tuesday was as good as we have played all season and the free flowing displays from early on have made a welcome reappearance. It will obviously be tough, but I'm certain that it will be closer than the odds suggest. ;-)

    FA Cup 4th Qualifying Round 24th-26th October

    in Non League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: FA Cup 4th Qualifying Round 24th-26th October

    Could be worth having a dabble at -2 as well That is paying 14.25 with sportingbet 'Stoke 14/5 & Worcs 11/4 ?
    You could do, but I won't for a few reasons. Firstly it's a bit much to ask for both sides to win by 3. There's always the risk of losing concentration late on to let in a consolation to scupper a bet and this would be quite a bit more likely if you are 3 in front rather than 2. Then there's the percentages - when you price up to 102 the odds only have to be slightly wrong to be in the bettors favour whereas Sportingbet are much higher for their handicaps. As it happens I think there is a fair margin here, but the principle is the same. If you did want to go for a more convincing win, the better option would be team goals, as late consolations and others conceded would not count against you.

    FA Cup 4th Qualifying Round 24th-26th October

    in Non League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: FA Cup 4th Qualifying Round 24th-26th October This won't win any prizes for originality, but never mind ;-) Addpea has already mentioned both sides in his acca, but I think there is really good value on each to win by two or more. Both are odds against with Marathonbet, who are 102% on Asian Handicaps even for these games - fair play to them. Basingstoke -1.5 to beat Harrow Borough looks nailed on. They are top of Conference South for good reason, but what makes this bet even better is that Harrow appear to be in serious financial difficulty in addition to being third from bottom of the Ryman Prem. Now this may seem odd for a side enjoying their best FA Cup run in many years, but I know for a fact that one player left recently due to not being paid, and if he did, it's pretty likely others did also. Worcester City -1.5 to beat Greenwich Borough is also odds against and looks equally good value. The London side from Step 5 has done fantastically well to make it to this stage but this should be a step too far. With the hosts 6 games unbeaten and mid table in Conference North they really should get home with something to spare. Combined odds of over 7/2 look well worthy of an investment.

    FA Cup 3rd Qualifying Round October 11th/12th

    in Non League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: FA Cup 3rd Qualifying Round October 11th/12th

    Evesham 7/5 to beat Chalfont St Peter - Eve cant stop scoring. I heard Chalfont players were at each other at HT in their last game.
    As someone who goes to every Chalfont game, I'd be very interested where you heard that ;-) In all seriousness it may have happened. But I'd be very wary about reading too much into it. It was our first defeat for about 2 months against the strongest side we've played in the league so far. We rested a few, tried a completely different formation so as not to give anything away to any observers from our opponents ;-) And I don't see it having much relevance to the game. In our 3 ties so far we have conceded once, which was a very dubious penalty. Without any further evidence, I'd stick it in the "freak result" category, of which there have been quite a few in our league this season! We still almost nicked a draw in injury time despite how poorly we defended. Also whilst on the face of it Evesham have two impressive 5-0 wins in their last two games, they both came at home to fairly moderate opposition. I suspect they'll find us a lot tougher, and if we play to the standard of the wins away at Kettering (top of our league with no home defeats) and home to Hungerford (top 6 of the league above us) I'd be surprised to see us lose.

    FA Cup 3rd Qualifying Round October 11th/12th

    in Non League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: FA Cup 3rd Qualifying Round October 11th/12th Just to add that Paddy are doing 20% bonuses on 5+ accumulators for all top flight UK games which include FA cup ties. So if your fancies are near top price with them, that might be something to bear in mind. Betfair have finally got markets up on all games today, although no liquidity yet, hopefully there will be some before kick off.

    FA Cup 3rd Qualifying Round October 11th/12th

    in Non League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: FA Cup 3rd Qualifying Round October 11th/12th Weston Super Mare to beat Flackwell Heath, 4-5 with Corals., 8-11 or 7-10 with others. Unless I'm missing something obvious this is bordering on a palpable error. 3 divisions between them (Conference South v Hellenic Premier) and Flackwell Heath only got through last round due to a bye. This looks an utter mismatch and I make it a 1-4 shot personally.

    FA Cup 3rd Qualifying Round October 11th/12th

    in Non League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: FA Cup 3rd Qualifying Round October 11th/12th There is one almighty rick which is not difficult to see. Could I suggest anyone who spots it doesn't mention it on here for a day or two to at least give other firms time to offer their prices, and allow more people a chance to get on, sadly the likes of VC and 365 aren't known for taking much on these kind of games. Ta ;-)

    FA Cup replays 29th/30th September

    in Non League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: FA Cup replays 29th/30th September A small double for me at around 7/2. Mickleover Sports are in much better form then Bedworth and prior to Saturday had won 7 in a row. Home advantage should be decisive for the replay. I also like Newport IOW to beat Winchester as they came from 3-0 down to draw 3-3 in the original game away, and roared on by a huge crowd they should get there with something to spare. I would also doubt that the visitors can be at full strength as surely some of the players would be missing due to the location (This would be a bonus but happy with odds against even if not)

    FA Cup 2nd Qualifying Round 27th/28th September

    in Non League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: FA Cup 2nd Qualifying Round 27th/28th September With apologies for the lateness of this post (had to wait ages for the copycat firms so I could get a bet on) Chalfont are an absolute must at 9/2 to beat Kettering. Last round win against Premier division Hungerford was no fluke, and we haven't lost in 7 games. Confidence is the highest I've known it in supporting them for a quarter of a century, We rested half a side for the midweek stroll against MK Dons academy, and those that played certainly looked very sharp. Manager Danny Edwards has promised to attack from the start (http://www.getbucks.co.uk/sport/football/news/saints-boss-goes-attack-7836071 ) and it will be a lot more competitive than the bookies think, that's for sure ;-) Off to the game now, gl if you follow.

    FA Cup 13th/14th September

    in Non League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: FA Cup 13th/14th September An excellent value treble for me to start. Harrow Borough look nailed on to win at AFC Hayes at 4/5, I saw the home side on Tuesday and they really weren't much to write home about. Although they managed a draw that makes 3 points from 8 games and it would be a surprise if that was enough to deny their near neighbours from a higher level. Kettering also look very attractive at 4/5 to win at Aylesbury, it's likely they will walk the division (already top) and a 5-0 midweek win should have them in good nick. Finally I like Dunstable at 5/6 at home to Chesham, the hosts have adapted to life superbly in the Premier after winning division 1 last year and are currently 2nd. They should have too much for an inconsistent Chesham side still struggling to come to terms with losing so many of their play off squad from last season. The treble pays a shade under 5/1 and looks way overpriced. I'm also backing my side Chalfont at 3/1 to beat Hungerford. It's going to be a very tough match against a side 1 league higher who are unbeaten and with 4 clean sheets in 5 but we are just starting to click and are 5 games unbeaten ourselves, albeit with a couple of disappointing draws. The price is quite simply wrong. Good luck if you follow :-)

    Southern/Northern/Isthmian Premer Leagues Ante-Post

    in Non League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Southern/Northern/Isthmian Premer Leagues Ante-Post Backed them in Dec / Jan when on about 15 match unbeaten run. Ironically it was their draw at my team (Chalfont) which probably cost them the title! I know they have new management this time which certainly means they are unbackable, if they weren't already. Betway are doing all Step 4 games to start the season. (Prices up now) Fair play to them for trying and indeed doing them a week in advance, I wonder how long it lasts.

    England > Weekend > FA Cup 3rd Qualifiers Oct 12-13

    in Non League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: England > Weekend > FA Cup 3rd Qualifiers Oct 12-13 Not sure how many Bridgwater rested for the replay, but I was there, and they looked very, very average. We are 3rd from bottom with only 4 points and played them off the pitch from start to finish. I'd be extremely wary about backing them based on what I saw, not to mention the game went to extra time and penalties so tiredness must be a factor.

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