[Betfair trading stragety for under-rated under-dogs wanted]

Re: Betfair trading stragety for under-rated under-dogs wanted

Sometimes I find a team that I think will play better than people expect them to - usually an under dog. Assuming I am correct in this, I could back the team to win but will often loose the bet anyway when the favourite wins. Can anyone suggest a trading strategy to use on BetFair to exploit this and not rely on the team to beat the favourite?

Lay the fave then trade out when their price rises? (of course the match will have to go in play for you to do this) -SilkBC

[ATP Tennis model]

Re: ATP Tennis model

1. Quality of opposition. If Yuichi Sugita defeat Roger Federer, he would gain such number of points as he would defeated Adrian Menendez-Maceiras. 2. Margin of victory. If Yuichi Sugita defeat Roger Federer in 6-0 6-0 6-0, he would gain such number of points as he would defeated Roger Federer in 6-7 6-0 7-5 5-7 14-12. 3. Retirement or walkover. If Yuichi Sugita defeat Roger Federer in 0-6 0-6 0-5 ret. or there's walkover, he would gain number of points and step into next round. 4. Surface. If Yuichi Sugita defeat Rafael Nadal at clay, he would gain such number of points as he would defeat Rafael Nadal on grass.

I have often had the same thought. I have always thought that something like an Elo rating system should be used, but with three seperate ratings for each player: one for clay, one for grass, and one for hard courts. When comparing two players, you use the ratings for the appropriate surface. The idea being that some players are almost unbeatable on one surface but average on another. In addition, Elo gives credit for defeating better opponents. Using your first example above, if Yuichi Sugita (whoever he is) defeats Roger Feder, his rating goes up more than if he defeats Adrian Menendez-Maceiras (whoever he is). The basic Elo calculation could be modified to atke into account points 2 and 3 as well. -SilkBC

[True Odds Calculator]

Re: True Odds Calculator Hi Jamie. I have been able to download this spreadsheet and have a look at it. Most of it makes sense, except for the "First Goalscorer" calculations. The "FIRSTGOALSCORER" sheet takes its values to calculate on from the INPUT sheet from the "FORM" values. What goes into "FORM"? I would suspect it is the teams' formations for the match, but if I put in, say "4-4-1", it calculates the first goal scorer as coming from the Defense? This seems wrong to me. Anyway, that was the only thing not clear. Thanks! :-) -SilkBC

[Lay Fav Away/ bet 4 corrrect scores]

Re: Lay Fav Away/ bet 4 corrrect scores

bet on 4 correct scores to dutch 0-1 8.20 £4.61 0-2 10.50 £3.60 1-2 9.20 £4.11 1-3 19.5 £1.94 Stake £14.26

Do you always back the same correct scores?

You will win if there is a Reading win ' date=' or a draw, or if Villa dont win by 3 goals or more.[/quote'] Villa winning 2-3 would be a danger too (this is a win by only 1 goal). You are right, though, it probably comes down to game selection: choose games where the away fav doesn't score much away and/or have a key player or two missing. I look forward to seeing your progress on this. -SilkBC

[STT/SNG Spreadsheet - a beginners guide]

Re: STT/SNG Spreadsheet - a beginners guide

its set at 0.5%' date=' which means if you play solid poker within your bankroll you should never go bust - this is for statistical analysis with the emphasis being on the first four letter of analysis......[/quote'] THis is an old post, but I just wanted to make a clarification here... just because you have little to no chance of going bust does not necessarily mean that you will end in profit. There is a distinction. -SilkBC

[ELO and "Rateform"]

I have recently been looking at the use of ELO ratings to assist me with my betting. I have been impressed with a1ehouse's work, in particular with his "LtD" thread as I primarily trade on BF doing just that. Since I am not knowledgeable, as yet, in databases, I have been able to crrate a spreadsheet that calculates the ELO rating for a team based on the work of Bon Runyon of the "World Football ELO Ratings", which I believe a1ehouse uses. I planning on doing each league as a seperate sheet within the wrokbook, with each workbook comprising a single season. (I have been entering the data needed for the calculations manually from stats sites, only for previous season as a proof of concept, but plan on using the CVS data from football-data.co.uk, which will allow me to add the odds for each match so I can do some back testing and also add the previous seasons relatively quickly, and for many different leagues) I have also seen the use of another calculation method used that I have seen referred to as "rateform" which involves a "kitty" to which the home team contributes 7% of their rating and the away team 5% of their rating. The winner of the match takes the whole kitty, which gets added to their rating. A couple of questions for those who are familiar with this:

1. Are there any advantatges to using one over the other other, or does it basically come down to personal preference?
2. (Related to #1 above) Has anyone compared the two methods and determined if one is more accurate than the other? If not, my template can be adjusted and modified to calculate the rateform points too with the same data, so it should be relatively easy to compare.
3. It seems some reset each team's rating at the start of the season (to 1,000 or 1,500, or whatever points they decide to use), while others seem to carry over the points from season to season (making minor adjustments). Is it considered best to carry the points over, or reset them?

I think those are my only questions for the moment. I may have others, or other questions may be created based on the answers to the above :-) Once I have enough data, I plan to use regression to determine for myself what the odds should be based on the Win Expectancy. That is the other reason I am doing each league as a seperate page in my workbook, because I suspect that each league is different (or at keast each country is different; I may combine al the English leagues into one, but I will have to see) TIA! :-) -SilkBC

[form guide + ELO ratings]

Re: form guide + ELO ratings

Here's what my rolling ratings show: Arsenal - City: 1467.11; 1278.07; 84.08% Bolton - Boro: 1215.70; 1169.70; 69.86% Both fairly tight games. Arsenal getting the edge overall with Bolton an outside chance.

How are you calculating the percentage chance for a home win from the ratings? Thanks! :-) -SilkBC *EDIT* Never mind, i saw another thread of yours, and it seems you calculate the "Win Expectancy" thusly: dr = (sRating1 + 100) - sRating2 We = 1 / (1 + 10^(-dr / 400)) I confirmed it spits out the same results, so thanks! :-)

[A1ehouse LtD (Lay the Draw) 2009/10]

Re: A1ehouse LtD (Lay the Draw) 2009/10 Hey a1ehouse, Been reading this thread with interest. Regarding the profits you are getting, do you think your strike rate (and profits) would be larger if you were just concentrating on in play games and trading out (i.e., the all-too-familiar "Lay The Draw" trading system) -SilkBC

[Dustys Aways]

Re: Dustys Aways

Picks are above opponents in RFO 6 match form league

I don't have access to the RFO. Is the "6 Match Form league" just a table the RFO publishes based on each teams' last 6 matches, giving 3 pts for a Win, 1 pt for a Draw and 0 pts for Loss? -SilkBC