seepps
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Posts posted by seepps
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Re: Tennis WTA Bias
That's a good idea !!!:welcome greg218 If seepps doesn't return then maybe you could continue this if this system floats your boat. -
Re: Tennis WTA Bias
Like Matthiew said, yes it does.Does the avg of all the bookies include the bookie that is the outlier? -
Re: Tennis WTA Bias
Seepps' date=' are you going to follow and post this system up on here in 2009?[/quote'] Hello everybody, Thanks for your interest and sorry for the "delay" ;-) In fact I will not follow this thread particulary for one reason. I have stopped all my "strategies" because they all rely on bookmakers odds. And I don't want to design systems based upon figures I don't own. If Pinnacle changes his model to compute odds, they won't inform me ;). So I've decided to build models that would rely only on facts like ratio of games won/played ... So this thread has lived its life and this is the end ...:cheers -
Re: Davids Draws Hello, After having backtested Spooner draws system, I've backtested yours. I hope you won't think I want to cricticise, it's just a contribution to help you in finding the best system. Of course it's easy to me to evaluate systems; I dream of the day I will present my system. Don't know if this dream will become true :-( Feel free to ask me further information that might help you. Have a nice evening.
Valeurs Étiquettes de lignes Nombre de result Somme de result Somme de win/loss BE 178 -8,840213612 53 1 178 -8,840213612 53 DE 582 -50,91410228 168 1 373 -53,47882489 101 2 209 2,564722603 67 ES 923 -154,3685477 261 1 436 -64,41846809 119 2 487 -89,95007957 142 FR 862 -84,34549521 273 1 523 -32,81088396 169 2 339 -51,53461124 104 GB 3109 -273,1614738 891 1 418 6,427223578 134 2 819 -43,98221863 244 3 762 -65,88332955 219 4 791 -129,0704924 208 5 319 -40,65265684 86 GR 139 -0,807971158 47 1 139 -0,807971158 47 IT 985 -23,67637052 358 1 403 -8,299983062 140 2 582 -15,37638746 218 NL 170 -8,156110537 50 1 170 -8,156110537 50 PT 152 -0,885305786 49 1 152 -0,885305786 49 SS 491 -101,5751172 118 1 219 -40,92611013 56 2 117 -18,8773011 29 3 81 -22,61107122 17 4 74 -19,16063472 16 TR 201 -48,46353553 48 1 201 -48,46353553 48 Total général 7792 -755,1942433 2316 -
Re: Draw draw draw! Hello Spooner, I've ran a backtest using your strategy and unfaithfully the result is not very encouraging. 1412 matches were selected using your constraints and here are the results Strike rate : 30.95 % P&L : -100,62 Yield : -7.12% I know it's easy to announce figures like that and say, "it will not work blablablalbla ..." but the problem is that i have a huge database (more than 100'000 matches, 1'000'000 odds, ...) and I'm not a statistician so it's hard for me to design innovative strategies. But backtesting strategies take me only 15-30 minutes depending on the complexity. For this strategy I had the results 15 minutes running the first query. I will try to jump to davidc thread to backtest it. Feel free to ask me further information, hope it doesn't discourage you ... cu
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Re: Soccer Home win Bias on favourites Another selection for this day : Portugal, Super Liga / Sporting Lisabon - Vitória Guimarães / 1,5415 / Betfair / 110,8 units :hope
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Re: Soccer Home win Bias on favourites Spain, Segunda Division / Xerez - Elche / 1,926 / Pinnacle Sports / 64,8 units Italy Serie B / Empoli - AC Piacenza / 1,6935 / Betfair / 86,52 units Other selections ... :drums
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Re: Soccer Home win Bias on favourites Another selection for tonight : Belgium, Jupiler League / Herta - Koln / 1,813 / Pinnacle Sports / 73,8 units :hope
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Re: Soccer Home win Bias on favourites Other selection for the week-end : Belgium, Jupiler League / KVC Westerlo - RAEC Bergen Mons / 1,7 / Expekt / 85,72 units Belgium, Jupiler League / Racing Genk - Cercle Brugge KSV / 1,833 / Pinnacle Sports / 72,03 units England, Blue Square - Premier (Conference League) / Burton Albion - Eastbourne Borough FC / 1,55 / Expekt / 109,09 units Spain, Segunda Division / Castellón - Alaves / 1,833 / Pinnacle Sports / 72,03 units :drums
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Re: Soccer Home win Bias on favourites Selections for tonight : Portugal, Super Liga / Leixoes - Naval / 2,04 / Pinnacle Sports / 57,7 units :hope France Ligue 2 / Strasbourg - Guingamp / 1,855 / Pinnacle Sports / 70,18 units :hope
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Re: Soccer Home win Bias on favourites What a terrible week-end. But anyway I don't give up !!! I'm in a Bankruptcy situation and I go on only because of M. Paulson who gives me hundreds billion of dollars :rollin Hope I won't regret. Here are the results for the last week-end : Stenhousemuir - East Stirlingshire : lose :wall Peterborough - Colchester United FC : win :clap Villarreal CF - Real Valladolid : lose :wall Dunfermline v Greenock Morton : lose :wall Dumbarton - Albion Rovers : lose :wall Queen of the South - Clyde FC : lose :wall PAOK FC - AEL Larisa : win :clap Rayo Vallecano - Alicante CF : lose :wall Vitória Guimarães - Paços Ferreira : lose :wall
Start bank 100 Current bank -7,06 Total staked 5119,87 Total returned 5012,81 Yield -2,09% Profit/Loss -107,06 Winners 49 Loosers 34 Strike Rate 59,04% -
Re: Soccer Home win Bias on favourites Cercle Brugge KSV - KV Mechelen not matched and cancelled
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Re: Soccer Home win Bias on favourites Queen of the South - Clyde FC => matched !!!
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Re: Soccer Home win Bias on favourites Other selection for this week-end : Spain, Primera Division / Villarreal CF - Real Valladolid / 1,5415 / Betfair / 110,8 units Football: Scotland, 1. Division / Dunfermline v Greenock Morton / 1,7505 / Betfair / 79,95 units Scotland, 3. Division / Dumbarton - Albion Rovers / 1,76 / Betfair / 79,94 units Belgium, Jupiler League / Cercle Brugge KSV - KV Mechelen / 1,703 / Betfair / 85,71 units / Not yet matched Scotland, 1. Division / Queen of the South - Clyde FC / 1,7315 / Betfair / 82,03 units / Not yet matched :hope
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Re: Soccer Home win Bias on favourites The selections for this week-end are : Scotland, 3. Division / Stenhousemuir - East Stirlingshire / 1,8 / betdirect / 75 units England, League 1 / Peterborough United - Colchester United FC / 1,787 / Pinnacle Sports / 76,24 units Greece, Greek Super League / PAOK FC - AEL Larisa / 1,8 / Expekt / 75 units Spain, Segunda Division / Rayo Vallecano - Alicante CF / 1,65 / Canbet / 92,31 units Portugal, Super Liga / Vitória Guimarães - Paços Ferreira / 1,7505 / Betfair / 79,95 units :hope
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Re: Soccer Home win Bias on favourites Hello, It seems that I didn't post the selections for last week; "happily" it was a negative week-end so I don't feel too guilty to post my selections : Le Mans UC72 v Valenciennes FC : win :clap Bury v Grimsby Town : lose :wall Aris Saloniki v Asteras Tripolis : lose :wall Stirling Albion - Arbroath : lose :wall Lyon - FC Girondins de Bordeaux : win :clap
Start bank 100 Current bank 472,92 Total staked 4368,65 Total returned 4741,57 Yield 8,54% Profit/Loss 372,92 Winners 47 Loosers 27 Strike Rate 63,51% -
Re: Soccer Home win Bias on favourites Results for the mid-week selections before posting the selections for the week-end : Hearts Of Midlothian v Hamilton : win :nana Juventus v Genoa : win :nana
Start bank 100 Current bank 596,25 Total staked 3970,53 Total returned 4466,78 Yield 12,50% Profit/Loss 496,25 Winners 45 Loosers 24 Strike Rate 65,22% -
Re: Soccer Home win Bias on favourites Selection for the mid-week : Scotland, 1. Division / Hearts Of Midlothian v Hamilton / 1,676 / Pinnacle Sports / 87,72 units Italy Serie A / Juventus v Genoa / 1,627 / Betfair / 95,7 units / not yet matched :hope
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Re: Soccer Home win Bias on favourites Results for the week-end : Racing Club Strasbourg - Tours FC : win :nana Caen - Le Havre AC : lose :wall TSV 1860 München - Oberhausen : lose :wall Villarreal CF - C.F. Almeria : win :nana SS Lazio - Siena : win :nana Feyenoord - FC Utrecht : win :nana St. Johnstone - Ross County : win :nana Queen of the South - Morton : lose :wall Cowdenbeath v Elgin : win :nana U.D. Salamanca - Alicante CF : win :nana
Start bank 100 Current bank 476,95 Total staked 3787,11 Total returned 4164,06 Yield 9,95% Profit/Loss 376,95 Winners 43 Loosers 24 Strike Rate 64,18% -
Re: Soccer Home win Bias on favourites Another bet for tomorrow : Espagne Secunda Division / U.D. Salamanca - Alicante CF / 1,684 / Betfair / 87,72 units :hope
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Re: Soccer Home win Bias on favourites Another qualifier ... Scotland, 1. Division / Queen of the South - Morton / 1,7 / Canbet / 83,35 units :hope
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Re: Soccer Home win Bias on favourites Another selection : Scotland, 1. Division / St. Johnstone - Ross County / 1,722 / Betfair / 80 units :hope
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Re: Soccer Home win Bias on favourites Hello, here are the selections for the week-end. I know that strasbourg is in-play and furthermore in my favor but I took the odd just before the end and I didn't have time to compile the bets to post before :$ France, Ligue 2 / Racing Club Strasbourg - Tours FC / 1,758 / Pinnacle Sports / 79,16 units France, Ligue 1 / Caen - Le Havre AC / 1,752 / Pinnacle Sports / 79,79 units Germany, 2. Bundesliga / TSV 1860 München - Oberhausen / 1,66 / bet365 / 90,9 units Spain, Primera Division / Villarreal CF - C.F. Almeria / 1,565 / Pinnacle Sports / 106,2 units Italy Serie A / SS Lazio - Siena / 1,671 / Pinnacle Sports / 89,42 units Eredivise / Feyenoord - FC Utrecht / 1,847 / Pinnacle Sports / 70,84 units Hope it will be a good week-end !!! :hope
Davids Draws
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: Davids Draws
Hello, In fact, the backtesting has been performed with the same condition of temperature and pression ;) I mean that I think I've have respected your given constraints, ie : 1- "Only select teams where the average odds are over 2.3 @ Betexplorer." => In my database I've several bookmakers' odds so I took the average odds and only selected the ones that are over 2.3 2- "Only select games in leagues where the under 2.5 goal average is 50% or better." => I've not selected the leagues one by one in order to have a global picture. From my understanding, you choose leagues depending on the overall under 2.5 goal average and then you select every game. Am I right ? 3- "Only select games in leagues where the average number of goals per match is under 2.5." => The same way as before, I let all the leagues to have a global picture. Not sure that everything is right; but what I've understood is that you pre-select leagues according two given criteria (2 and 3). Then from this set of games, you only pick games respecting the first criteria. Is it right ? cu and best wishes for the future ...