bwtw
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Posts posted by bwtw
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Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version
Unibet was the big one when I was backing scorers regularly, particularly in the obscurer leagues. Would be very impressed if you can beat Betfair long-term, very rarely do I find any value there at all.Most of the value in the system seems to go from the bookmakers whose prices are way out: Unibet, Coral and sometimes Skybet and Betfair tend to have good odds. Bet365 offer the biggest range of games though. -
Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version
This is only true to an extent. If you're on top of lineups when they come out you can get in some very good team news bets. I'd be interested to see what your average odds are at the moment and comparing them to your strike rate.I think the last point is crucial, as bookmakers will always cut the odds on players after team news, examples of this (though not necessarily applicable to your system) can be seen in the champions league or carling cup when reserves come in. -
Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version
...50 games is just nowhere near enough for any substantial anaylsis for these types of bets.Thanks Grex. I'm still not 100% convinced, but I'll reach the 50 games mark today when I'll have enough stats for a rough analysis -
Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Could you lay me those bets please? Blindly laying players you know are in for scoring lots sounds/is suicidal.
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Re: Anytime Goalscorers, 2010/11 Version Interested in following this but I think you're gonna get destroyed long-term using this approach. Variety of reasons but... - You're not taking into account form at all afaik, if a player has scored 10 goals in 20 games, all 10 in the first 10 and none in the last 10 but you're backing him at evens in an 'average' match, you would make that a worthwhile bet. edit - Ah, I see you are to some degree. It's pretty flawed though, you could still end up with an instance where a player scored a goal 6 games ago but none since1 - You're counting penalties the same as open play goals...penalties are largely random per team (with some outliers due to particular players/styles of play) but your system treats them as part of the player's prowess. - You're treating past stats as a completely reliable indicator of the future. If say Nemanja Vidic were to score 20% of Man Utd's goals this season, that obviously doesn't mean he's likely to keep scoring 20% of Man Utd's goals. As I said, interesting in following this, but I do doubt that you've somehow picked up on something the bookies haven't by following stuff blind!
How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Additionally, pointing out a winning record over 7 seasons of antepost bets (regardless of the absolute monetary returns...which I am very skeptical of for obvious reason) is worthless. Say you have 10 bets a season, over 7 seasons, that's a sample of 70. Considering antepost bets are generally long odds, that sample size is negligible at best. Anyone who predicts that they will be making 80% ROI going forward in fairly efficient markets is either lying or deluded about their own abilities. If the sums of money you're stating are true, it's the latter...think about it for a minute (again, assuming what you say is true) - is Will Hill going to be happy laying £20k bets to someone they believe to be a winning long-term punter. Also the idea that someone is a professional 'antepost acca' backer is laughable. I feel I'm stating the obvious here but you're either making this all up or you've just gotten extremely lucky. imo from what you've posted there is no way you are a winning bettor long-term. I feel like I'm getting trolled.