koochak
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Posts posted by koochak
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Re: Germany VS Spain FINAL EURO 2008 Every pundit is tipping Spain like it is going to be a walkover. Let it be, as it creates fantastic value on the other side of the line. Betfair is currently 3.6 on Germany in 90 minutes. Fill your footgear that covers your foot and part of your leg.
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Re: Semi Final 2 - Russia v Spain Here's a simple tip for you. Don't base your bets on recent "form". This would be what you earthlings call "up a blind alley" if I am not mistaken.
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Re: Semi Final 2 - Russia v Spain Everyone is over-estimating Russia and under-estimating Spain. This is the easiest match to call out of the quarters and semis. Spain to win in 90 minutes is easily value at anything better than evens.
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Re: Portugal v Germany -1st Quarter Final I have no idea who's going to win this one guys, but Germany at 9/4 (Bet365) is value in my opinion, despite Low's situation. Germany will play a waiting game and Portugal will get frustrated. Germany in 90 mins is my pick.
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Re: Question on calculation of FV Muppet gave the wrong answer. The correct answer is $37,783.43
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Re: Correct score market on Betfair What happens actually depends on the odds for 0-0 at kickoff. For the example you've given where 0-0 starts at 10, if the score is still 0-0 after 10 mins, then 0-0 would move to about 7.7, both 1-0 and 1-1 also generally move lower. It is the higher scores (those with total goals of 3 or more) that move higher. I hope this helps you.
A football rating system, discussions, ideas
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: A football rating system, discussions, ideas I just noticed this thread and couldn't let it pass without commenting. Just two for now: 1. The goal difference is not normally distributed. Using least-squares to arrive at teams' rating metric implicitly assumes normality. This introduces errors. 2. The rating, whichever way arrived at, changes (albeit slowly) during the season. Ignoring that again introduces errors. At first reading I thought the time-dependent change in rating was being effected by the rating update formula, but now I realise that this is only to provide a better estimate of the long-term average of the rating.