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Zoroaster

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Posts posted by Zoroaster

    Liverpool v Norwich > Sat 19th January

    in Premier League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Liverpool v Norwich > Sat 19th January

    I think Liverpool will win this game' date=' and I wouldn't be surprised by 2 or 3-0. But betting is about prices and 1.33-1.36 is just too short, if you look at historical win percentages of a high-mid-table side versus a low-mid-table side or even versus a struggling-against-relegation side, they don't win anywhere near close enough to the 73-75% needed to make that a fair price. Even if you factor in 5% to account for Liverpool's good form and Norwich's poor form there is still poor value on Liverpool and good value on Norwich. That to me is enough reason alone to back Norwich +1.75AH @ 1.87 (Expekt, 3/10).[/quote'] I am making Liverpool to be just under 60% to win this one, with a fairly even distribution of value onto both the Draw and the Away Win. I mean sure, I am likely to lose this play most of the time, but I'm also fairly confident that my X2 here is the highest value investment I have all weekend. That said, I'm fairly sure the bookies have enough money on Liverpool to justify the low odds - on Betfair 319k out of 342k is matched on the home win.

    Championship > 18th Jan - 19th Jan

    in Championship Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Championship > 18th Jan - 19th Jan So far this season there have been draws in 23.9% of games in The Championship. Make of that what you will, but normally the draw percentage hovers around the 28%-29% mark. There was a season like it back in 07/08, and it's enough to put the fear in me regarding any draw or cover bet

    Sunderland v Liverpool > September 15th

    in Premier League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Sunderland v Liverpool > September 15th

    Have you and more to add apart from saying massive +EV on the home team? :eyes Pot Kettle Yawn.
    Liverpool finished last season with a massive 52 points, and have started this season with little/no improvement to results. And not only bad results, bad performances too - they even struggled to get past Hearts. Lets remember they did play well in patches last season too, beating Arsenal, Newcastle, Chelsea twice and Everton twice. To deserve 2.3 on winning an away game to an average EPL side, you should be a likely to finish in the 70-75 point region. I'll cut my left ball off if they make that. Maybe they will win, I don't have a crystal ball, but I am confident there is no justification of the current line. I'm on Sunderland outright @ 3.65.

    Zoroaster System Tracking (Current Bank= 696 points, -0.103% Yeild)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Zoroaster System Tracking (Current Bank= 696 points, -0.103% Yeild) Bristol City v Blackpool Draw @ 3.65 HT Blackpool @ 6 Burnley v Sheff Wed Draw @ 3.85 HT Draw @ 2.32 Norwich v Coventry Coventry @ 3.95 HT Coventry @ 4.4 U2.5 @ 1.88 Preston v Ipswich Preston @ 2.52 HT Preston @ 3.35 Reading v Nottm Forest Reading @ 1.55 Southampton v Cardiff Cardiff @ 2.6 HT Cardiff @ 3.3 Swansea v Charlton Swansea @ 1.65 HT Swansea @ 2.3 U2.5 @ 2.02 Watford v C Palace U2.5 @ 1.88 Wolves v Plymouth Wolves @ 1.5 HT Draw @ 2.56 O2.5 @ 1.86

    Zoroaster System Tracking (Current Bank= 696 points, -0.103% Yeild)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Zoroaster System Tracking (Current Bank= 696 points, -0.103% Yeild) Everton v West Brom Everton @ 1.52 HT Everton @ 2.14 Arsenal v Fulham Draw @ 4.4 Chelsea v Wigan Draw @ 5.2 HT Draw @ 2.7 O2.5 @ 2.08 Middlesbrough v Liverpool Liverpool @ 1.91 HT Liverpool @ 2.7 O2.5 @ 2.54 Hamilton v Rangers Lay Rangers @ 1.5 (=bet @ 3.00) HT Hamilton @ 7.8 Aberdeen v Kilmarnock Aberdeen @ 1.85 Celtic v St Mirren St Mirren @ 24 O2.5 @ 1.76 Dundee Utd v Hearts Dundee United @ 2.44 Ht Dundee United @ 3.2 O2.5 @ 2.34 Hibernian v Falkirk Hibs @ 2.24 HT Hibs @ 2.92 U2.5 @ 1.87 Inverness CT v Motherwell Motherwell @ 3.1 HT Motherwell @ 4.1 O2.5 @ 2.3

    Zoroaster System Tracking (Current Bank= 696 points, -0.103% Yeild)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Zoroaster System Tracking (Current Bank= 696 points, -0.103% Yeild) C Palace v Birmingham Birmingham @ 3.65 U2.5 @ 1.72 Brighton v Northampton Draw @ 3.4 HT Draw @ 2.22 Colchester v Stockport Lay Colchester @ 2.18 (=bet @ 1.85) HT Stockport @ 4.6 Crewe v Yeovil Yeovil @ 3.6 HT Yeovil @ 4 Oldham v Bristol Rovers Oldham @ 1.93 HT Oldham @ 2.6 Peterborough v Carlisle Peterborough @ 1.66 HT Draw @ 2.48 Southend v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe @ 2.88 HT Scunthorpe @ 3.6 Swindon v Hartlepool Lay Swindon @ 2 (=bet @ 2) HT Draw @ 2.28

    Importance (or lack of) of recent form

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Importance (or lack of) of recent form

    Don't you think number of goals scored in previous 6 matches (home or away ...or both - since you can usually see both) is at all handy?
    With goals in particular, I'd say that recent form was almost totally useless. As football is such a low scoring game, the variance of total goals over such a short period will contain no useful information whatsoever - in my humble opinion.

    Zoroaster System Tracking (Current Bank= 696 points, -0.103% Yeild)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Zoroaster System Tracking (Current Bank= 696 points, -0.103% Yeild)

    Looks like you are back on the winning track today' date=' well done...[/quote'] Cheers mate. Still suffering from two bad days which is offering a pretty false impression of the system currently. Patience is the key - I'll keep posting away :) Man Utd v Fulham Draw @ 6.6 Lay HT ManU @ 1.73 (=bet @ 2.303) Derby v Blackpool Lay Derby @ 1.85 (=bet @ 2.12) HT Draw @ 2.3 U2.5 @ 1.87 Ipswich v Nottm Forest Draw @ 3.8 HT Draw @ 2.36

    Importance (or lack of) of recent form

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Importance (or lack of) of recent form Very interesting research. I've argued for quite a long time that "recent form" is a complete myth and has little or no information for us as value seekers. I remember reading an essay years ago (it may have been on here, although I can't remember) about a study that was done concerning increased likelyhood of a team winning, had they won their previous game. It concluded there was zero increased probability, which went along with my debunking of "form" as a tool we should value highly.

    Zoroaster System Tracking (Current Bank= 696 points, -0.103% Yeild)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Zoroaster System Tracking (Current Bank=1170.58, +170.58 points) Burnley v Coventry Draw @ 3.8 HT Draw @ 2.4 U2.5 @ 2.1 Sheff Wed v Barnsley Draw @ 3.6 Watford v Swansea Watford @ 3.45 HT Draw @ 2.34 U2.5 @ 2.04 Bristol Rovers v Yeovil Draw @ 3.4 Hereford v Leeds Draw @ 3.85 HT Hereford @ 5.3 Millwall v Swindon Milwall @ 1.85 HT Milwall @ 2.48 Tranmere v Peterborough Lay Peterborough @ 3.05 (=bet @ 1.488) HT Draw @ 2.26

    Zoroaster System Tracking (Current Bank= 696 points, -0.103% Yeild)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Zoroaster System Tracking (Current Bank= 696 points, -0.103% Yeild) Atalanta v Roma Lay Roma @ 2.32 (=bet @ 1.758) HT Draw @ 2.24 U2.5 @ 2.02 Cagliari v Lecce Cagliari @ 2.00 HT Cagliari @ 2.74 Chievo v Catania Draw @ 3.2 HT Daw @ 2.04 O2.5 @ 2.62 Genoa v Fiorantina Draw @ 3.3 HT Draw @ 2.14 O2.5 @ 2.2 Juventus v Sampdoria Juventus @ 1.55 HT Juve @ 2.22 O2.5 @ 2.16 Reggina v Palermo Palermo @ 2.66 HT Palermo @ 3.6 U2.5 @ 1.84 Siena v Udinese Lay Udinese @ 3.5 (=bet @ 1.4) O2.5 @ 2.4

    Zoroaster System Tracking (Current Bank= 696 points, -0.103% Yeild)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Zoroaster System Tracking (Current Bank= 696 points, -0.103% Yeild) EPL Portsmouth v Man City Portsmouth @ 3.05 HT Draw @ 2.2 U2.5 @ 1.83 Championship Birmingham v Nottm Forest Birmingham @ 1.87 HT Birmingham @ 2.66 O2.5 @ 2.28 Bristol City v Southampton HT Bristol City @ 2.6 Burnley v Wolves Wolves @ 2.94 HT Burnley @ 3.5 U2.5 @ 2.2 Charlton v Plymouth Plymouth @ 3.6 Lay HT Charlton @ 3.2 (=bet @ 1.455) O2.5 @ 2.32 Ipswich v Blackpool Lay Ipswich @ 1.68 (=bet @ 2.47) HT Draw @ 2.34 Preston v Norwich Preston @ 2.00 HT Preston @ 2.76 League 1 Brighton v Carlisle Draw @ 3.5 HT Draw @ 2.28 Cheltenham v Hereford Lay Hereford @ 3.4 (=bet @ 1.42) Lay HT Draw @ 2.3 (=bet @ 1.77) Huddersfield v Leeds Lay Leeds @ 2.68 (=bet @ 1.595) HT Draw @ 2.28 Leicester v Swindon HT Leicester @ 2 L Orient v Crewe Draw @ 3.5 HT Crewe @ 4.6 MK Dons v Hartlepool MK Dons @ 1.62 HT Draw @ 2.48 Oldham v Northampton Oldham @ 1.85 HT Oldham @ 2.5 Peterborough v Yeovil Peterborough @ 1.53 HT Draw @ 2.5 Scunthorpe v Bristol Rovers Scunthorpe @ 1.67 HT Draw @ 2.5 Southend v Tranmere Tranmere @ 2.92 HT Tranmere @ 3.7 Stockport v Millwall Lay Milwall @ 2.98 (=bet @ 1.505) HT Draw @ 2.22 Walsall v Colchester Walsall @ 3.2 HT Walsall @ 3.75 SPL Dundee Utd v Inverness CT Dundee United @ 1.81 HT Dundee United @ 2.5 O2.5 @ 2.1 Hearts v Aberdeen Hearts @ 2.52 HT Hearts @ 3.4 O2.5 @ 2.46 Motherwell v Hamilton Lay Motherwell @ 2.04 (=bet @ 1.962) HT Hamilton @ 5.2 U2.5 @ 1.83 Division 1 Partick v Dunfermline Draw @ 3.55 U2.5 @ 1.71 Queen of South v Airdrie Utd Draw @ 3.7 O2.5 @ 2.38 St Johnstone v Livingston U2.5 @ 1.99

    Zoroaster System Tracking (Current Bank= 696 points, -0.103% Yeild)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Zoroaster System Tracking (Current Bank= 696 points, -0.103% Yeild) Newcastle v Sunderland Newcastle @ 2.78 lost HT Newcastle @ 3.45 lost O2.5 @ 2.22 lost Liverpool v Chelsea Liverpool @ 2.62 won HT Liverpool @ 3.5 lost Inverness CT v Celtic Celtic @ 1.42 lost HT Celtic @ 1.93 lost O2.5 @ 1.78 lost Atalanta v Catania Lay Atalanta @ 1.94 (=bet @ 2.064) lost Lay HT Atalanta @ 2.78 (=bet @ 1.562) lost O2.5 @ 2.34 lost Chievo v Sampdoria Lay Sampdoria @ 2.6 (=bet @ 1.625) won HT Draw @ 2.08 won Genoa v Palermo Draw @ 3.45 lost Inter v Torino Inter @ 1.27 lost HT Inter @ 1.69 lost O2.5 @ 1.94 lost Siena v Lecce Lay Lecce @ 5.1 (=bet @ 1.244) lost HT Siena @ 2.78 lost O2.5 @ 2.68 won Espanyol v Rec de Huelva Lay Espanyol @ 2.08 (=bet @ 1.926) lost HT Huelva @ 4.9 lost U2.5 @ 1.75 won Bristol City v Charlton Bristol City @ 1.85 won HT Bristol City @ 2.56 lost Preston v Plymouth Draw @ 3.8 won Lay Ht Preston @ 2.5 (=bet @ 1.67) won O2.5 @ 2.3 lost Southampton v Sheff Utd Lay Southampton @ 3.4 (=bet @ 1.42) won O2.5 @ 2.22 won Wolves v Norwich Wolves @ 1.6 lost HT Draw @ 2.56 won Blackburn v Aston Villa Villa @ 2.6 won HT Villa @ 3.35 won U2.5 @ 1.84 won Portsmouth v Liverpool Liverpool @ 1.85 won HT Liverpool @ 2.6 lost Chelsea v Hull Draw @ 7.8 won U2.5 @ 2.6 won Everton v Bolton Draw @ 3.55 lost O2.5 @ 2.38 won West Brom v Newcastle West Brom @ 2.08 lost Birmingham v Burnley Birmingham @ 2.22 lost HT Birmingham @ 2.94 lost O2.5 @ 2.2 lost Blackpool v Doncaster Blackpool @ 2.82 lost HT Blackpool @ 3.6 lost O2.5 @ 2.38 won Coventry v wolves HT Draw @ 2.3 lost U2.5 @ 2.16 lost Norwich v Bristol City Bristol City @ 3.75 won HT Bristol City @ 4.2 won U2.5 @ 1.95 lost Plymouth v Derby Plymouth @ 2.86 lost HT Draw @ 2.16 lost U2.5 @ 1.74 lost Swansea v Ipswich Ipswich @ 3.75 lost HT Ipswich @ 4.4 lost O2.5 @ 2.04 won Cagliari v Atalanta cagliari @ 2.28 lost HT Cagliari @ 3 lost Catania v Juve Juve @ 1.93 won HT Juve @ 2.68 won Fiorantina v Lazio Fiorantina @ 1.73 won Ht Fiorantina @ 2.42 lost Palermo v Napoli Draw @ 3.2 won Roma v Genoa Genoa @ 7 lost HT Genoa @ 6.2 lost Sampdoria v Siena HT Draw @ 2.14 won Torina v Chievo Draw @ 3.25 won HT Draw @ 2.12 won Udinese v bologna Draw @ 3.65 lost Malaga v Almeria Malaga @ 2.4 won HT Malaga @ 3 lost Mallorca v Deportivo Lay Mallorca @ 2.42 (=bet @ 1.704) won Lay HT Mallorca @ 3.35 (=bet @ 1.426) won Osasuna v Valencia Lay Osasuna @ 2.74 (=bet @ 1.575) lost Lay HT Osasuna @ 3.6 (=bet @ 1.385) won Valladolid v Bilbao Draw @ 3.6 lost Leeds v Millwall Lay Leeds @ 1.89 (=bet @ 2.124) lost HT Milwall @ 5.4 lost Starting bank: 1000 Current bank: 739.97 Level Stake: 10 Total staked: 4760 Number of bets: 476 Winning bets: 188 Losing bets: 288 Strike rate: 39.5% Yield: -0.055 Profit (or Loss): -260.03

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