Sherman Blue
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Posts posted by Sherman Blue
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Re: Euro 2008 Internationals (Nov 15) Don't underestimate Israel here , they are a very tough side to beat especially at home. Because Croatia beat England at home last time out doesn't make them worldbeaters overnight (lets not forget how poor England were and opps that 2nd goal!!) I'd expect a draw in this one as the result wouldn't be bad for either team
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Re: Champions League 17/18 October 2006 Chelsea .v. Barca For punters the value has to be in Barca here at odds against - 2.87 currently with hills. Barca are after all the best club in Europe right now and so odds against anyone is worth a punt Hilario in goal does concern me , I saw him play preseason tour of the States and he looked dodgy to me , made a couple of bad mistakes (one leading to a goal) and generally looked like a 3rd choice keeper happy to pick up a decent paycheque. Normally this wouldn't alone be reason to back against Chelsea but we still haven't got inot our stride this season with the new faces and change in formation. Maybe Sheva and Ballack will feel more at home tonight in the Champs league but based on current form we look less solid at the back than previous years and still not 100% comfortable . Essien has been our best player so far and Sheva has to score at some point so might be tonight I of course will not be betting against Chels and hopeful that we can pick up a draw. I do think it will be a fairly tight game so if anything will probably go goals under or a correct score bet 1-1
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Re: CL matches 13/09 Any thoughts on Arsenal tonight. Well documented that they've struggled early so far and Henry is out which is huge .. don't know much about Hamburg except they were more than capable of good results last year in the bundeslige Think at this stage Arsenal would be happy with a draw here
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Re: CL matches 13/09 just repeating what's already been said here but Manu prices are crazy. Yes they should win comfortably BUT you have to factor this is a massive game for Celtic and their fans, Scottish prides (and McCains) and stake. I remember a few years back when Leeds played Rangers , Leeds were flying at the time with a great side but ended up falling to the Scots. Don't be fooled either by good league form as we've seen in recent years as especially for the English clubs it doesn't translate to good champs league form (see Arsenal last year and Liverpool the year before) I can't resist laying Utd here the price is just too good, smart money is probably on the goals over though as Celtic have issues at the back but can score goals and Utd aren't watertight either but lethal if on form going forward. Ronaldo out is a missing and not sure whether rooney back helps or not ..
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Re: Baseball Notes Don't discount the RedSox , ok i'm bias but I actually like the moves they made this year. Ortiz and Rameriz are the best 3-4 hitters in the game, Crisp can be similar to Damon in batting and much younger and Loretta is a decent bat at 2 in the lineup .. also fully expect them to pick up another bat mid season. The bats are lighter but the addition of Beckett to the pitching staff gives them a legitimate 1, 2 combo with Shilling crucial in the post season. Also a lot of talk about Clemens signing up for the 2nd half with either Boston, NYY or Houston... if that happens it's a game changer for either club. Personally I'd be the most worried if I was a Yankees fan.
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Re: Baseball Notes
Yankees failed to address their biggest problem last season ... pitching. I expect they will make the playoffs with the bats they have but won't go deep in the post season with that rotation .. Johnson is not the dominant pitcher he once was , no easy out's in this division or in the AL , unlike the NL. Common knowledge that moving to the AL from the NL adds at least a point on your ERA. Blue Jays and Cleveland are the teams to watch this year in the AL both have big bats but also some talented pitching and both big prices to win the WS at 26.00 and 15.00.But Johnson pitched for years in seattle. It coulb just be father time catching up with him. He has also complained about Posada their Catcher calling away from his strengths which has flawed his mechanics and makes it difficult to compete at the high level he used to enjoy. I think the Yankees are going to be in plenty of high scoring games. Their offense is incredibly explosive. I think they are a good bet for the over in many games. -
Re: Next England manager
Wonder if that was Big Phil himself !! :lol Surely it's McLaren's now although 2 uefa cup performances against teams without any major international players hardly warrant good credentials... amazing how a few results change people's opinions , 3 months ago everyone wanted Pearce ... my preference is actually O'Neil but either way my money's staying put as betting on the FA is like throwing good money after bad ;)bet the fool that laid big phil at 220 on betfair is feeling sick, that risk for £2. Madness. Plenty of money on big Phil at huge prices, wonder if this will have an impact on the newcastle situation, wonder if Marty O'Neil will be phoning fat freddy up ?? -
Re: Int friendlies - 9th to 13th Nov Scotland look a good price to get a result at home to the US. This weekend is the MLS final (New England .v. LA) so can't imagine any of the decent US players (which ain't many) will be taking the trip to Scotland. I'm no expert on Scottish football but my impression is that they are improving under Walter Smith and have nothing to play for now expect friendlies so shouldn't need to rest any of their players. US sides are generally well organised but lack attacking flair so could see a 0-0 happening but looking more closely at a 1 goal victory to the Scots. For the qualified teams team news has to be critical and in reality these games mean nothing , another team to watch in support of that theory is Germany to get a result against qualified France. Admitedly Germany are not as strong as in previous years but as they proved in Korea are nonetheless capable of competing so over 4.3 for the win looks generous. This is in effect as good as a qualifier for the Germans who are in desperate need of competitive games and therefore will be potentially more concerned with the result than the French. Not sure if Henry is playing but can imagine he won't after Wenger's comments. One warning though would be to avoid Germany if Huth is playing
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Re: World Cup Quals, Euro Zone, Sat 8 October Does anyone have anything on the Swiss lineup - injuries , key players etc 4.60 seems very high for a team with a good scoring record , are top of the table and against a France team who've underperformed in almost every game so far and are missing key players. Obviously the draw (at 3.30) wouldn't be a disaster but they won't want to go to Dublin on Weds needing a result.
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Re: Baseball picks sportpunter - where are you posting your picks ... or is PHI your only pick for Friday night?
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Re: WC Quals. 07/09 European Zone caution on betting on teams who have "nothing" to play for and wait for team news. ukraine have qualified already cause they are a very strong side - tempting as it is to lump on turkey at that price they have been playing a little below expectations and unless something dramatically changes in both teams play or ukraine's lineup, you can equally say this is a good price for Ukraine. Last Nov Ukraine thumped turkey 3-0 in Istanbul and Turkey have yet to win against quality opposition away in this group. Poland are banker material , also like the look of Switzerland at 1.50 - don't see a reason why they wouldn't be all out to beat Cyprus as this is there big chance to consolidate their position at the top of a tight group
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Re: Int Friendlies (17 August 2005) Cheers jmac - certainly looks like a Wales side light on real quality names. Slovenia are not world beaters either but a decent side currently still in the hunt for WC qualification. Milenko Acimovic is apparently their key player and goalscorer if he's playing i'm on anything above 3.5
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Re: Int Friendlies (17 August 2005) Anyone know the likely Welsh lineup for this friendly, can see possible value in Slovenia pending team news... Aside that i'm on a very small ARG/POR/ENG treble
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Re: The Return of MLB Bingo Bango Bongo Taking Angels (Colon) , NYY/STL Over 9.5, and CLE (Sabathia) today . RedSox game is one to watch first meeting since 1918 world series !! (funnily enough before last year the last time Boston won the WS) .. Maddux/Arroyo should be a great matchup but very tough to call. By the way some good prices still around for the divisional titles bearing in mind there are always teams that play horribly first half and then turn it around after the all star break (ie Florida in 2004, Boston 2005) Like some of the following: BAL still 3rd Fav in the AL East available at 9/2 .. whilst expect BOS or NYY to go on a charge in August I think BAL will make the playoffs this year - there pitching is suspect but the bats are some of the best in MLB and if there still in first come July expect them to look at some trades down the stretch to strengthen (look for teams out of the divisional races to offload salary - lot of talk about Clemens leaving Hou for example) ATL 7/4 for the NL East .. how can you bet against this divisional machine ! Dodgers 7/4 for the NL West - too strong to not be in the race and watch out for their pitching to improve (Penny and Lowe also both have post season experience) Cleveland are 40/1 !! for the AL Central ... for one of the weakest most open divisions this is a great price. There still going through a rebuilding stage from the late 90's dominance but they have some good young players and for me this league is way too open for them to be this price. Back to tonight's games ...
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Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition WFTE hope you don't mind me putting some tips on this thread too .. Considering BAL, SEA, FLA , NYY today .. maybe BOS Bedard pitching for the O's has looked solid in his first 2 outings and unlucky to have 2 no-decisions, DET pitchers are maturing from a few seasons ago but BAL have a potent offense this year and Johnson doesn't have a great record at Camden Yards. Seattle are another team I think have improved a lot in the offseason and like BAL would be my tip to progress if they weren't in such a strog division with ANA and OAK. Still their pitching staff underperformed last season and don't expect that to happen to such an extent again - they've improved there hitting considerable with Sexton and Beltre which is why I give them a good chance away from pitching friendly Safeco. Sele goes today against his old club and IMO against one of the weakest ANA pitchers Byrd whose had a rough start. FLA because Willis seems to always start the season strongly and Ohka has a terrible record against them (1-9 lifetime) NYY because they have to start winning soon or heads will roll .. the Devil Rays are the perfect opponents for them to turn around and Rob Bell pitching for the DRays has historically been battered by the Yankees bats Finally BOS because Shilling is on the mound and it's the Boston Marathon today !!
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Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition WFTE - Great to see you back on the baseball trip just catching up on your threads. April is always a slightly strange month in the season as often teams have new players and others take time to warmup. Look at the standings in the AL EAst right now ! By May pitchers have found there groove and you'll probably start to see results a bit more true to form ... of course as you know the key to baseball is streaks and like on the blackjack table you have to ride the hot streaks , pitchers etc I haven't placed a bet yet this season aside from some very small stakes world series longshots but expect i'll start in earnest this weekend. Looking forward to watching your success and hopefully sharing thoughts Btw - Any fancies this year for division titles ?
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Re: World Cup European Qualifiers Sat 26th FYI - Anyone looking at Croatia .v. Iceland then Gudjohsen has ruled himself out of both upcoming games with a "slight" strain. When you best player as already decided to sit out it's not a good sign .. short prices I know but nailed on win for the Croats
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Re: NFL Divisional playoffs - 15th/16th January Any thoughts on the Pats Colts game , to me only 2 things can happen in this game ... a close Pats win or a Colts blow out. Leaning towards history on the side of the Pats - but little value there so may take a small stake on the Colts spread. btw it's fairly cold in NE today with a slight chance of snow not great conditions for the Colts but nothing like it can be (ie the Oakland game in 01), if they can get inside Manning's head early they'll win - should be a great game Also think the Vikings may just upset the Eagles. Without TO the Eagles are vulnerable where as Culpeeper and Moss are both looking fit to play. Only finding +8 on the spreads.
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Re: Away Favourite-system Great post Tony very interesting to see how you go here over a longer period so keep it going. One question - I'm assuming your being selective on your picks based on personal opinion or are you looking purely at the best odds for away fav's?
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Re: Even / Odd betting using the new system this weekend's PL bets as follows: AVL (Even) .v. POR = 1pt EVEN 1.85:( CHE (Odd) .v. EVE (Odd) = 2pt ODD 1.90:D LIV (Even) .v. BIR (Even) = 2pt EVEN 1.85:( NOR .v. BLK (Odd) = No Bet SOT (Even) .v. WBA = 1pt EVEN 1.85:D TOT (odd) .v. CHA (odd) = 1pt ODD 1.90:D CRY .v. ARS (Even) = 1pt EVEN 1.85:D MID (Even) .v. BOL (even) = 2pt EVEN 1.85:D NEW .v. FUL (even) = 1pt EVEN 1.85:( MUN(odd) .v. MAN (Odd) = 1pt ODD 1.90:( So close to a good wkend but for the Liverpool result , anyway still another positive week albeit just. Interesting that the new system yielded a better return than the blanket even bets which would have resulted in a loss this weekend , so something to be pleased about :dude Start Bank: 96.00 Current Bank: 99.30 Bets: 29 Wins 17 Loses 12 Profit: 3.30 Strike: 58.62% Yield: 11%
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Re: Even / Odd betting using the new system this weekend's PL bets as follows: AVL (Even) .v. POR = 1pt EVEN 1.85:( CHE (Odd) .v. EVE (Odd) = 2pt ODD 1.90:D LIV (Even) .v. BIR (Even) = 2pt EVEN 1.85:( NOR .v. BLK (Odd) = No Bet SOT (Even) .v. WBA = 1pt EVEN 1.85:D TOT (odd) .v. CHA (odd) = 1pt ODD 1.90:D CRY .v. ARS (Even) = 1pt EVEN 1.85:D MID (Even) .v. BOL (even) = 2pt EVEN 1.85:D NEW .v. FUL (even) = 1pt EVEN 1.85:( MUN(odd) .v. MAN (Odd) = 1pt ODD 1.90:( So close to a good wkend but for the Liverpool result , anyway still another positive week albeit just. Interesting that the new system yielded a better return than the blanket even bets which would have resulted in a loss this weekend , so something to be pleased about :dude Staked: 12 pts Win: 13.10
International: UEFA 2008 qualifyers, 24/03
in Other International Predictions
Posted
Re: International: UEFA 2008 qualifyers, 24/03
Ditto I think no Crouch is a blessing for England - he's done surprisingly well for England but dictates a certain style. Bottom line is that England have to get something from this and despite constant critiscm in the press they more often than not pull out a result when needed. Rooney is coming into form for United and made BenHaim look like a donkey last week - He's certainly due a performance and the forced absence of Crouch might actually help him here. It won't be pretty but just feel England will squeeze out a win 1-0 or 2-1