-JT-
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Posts posted by -JT-
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Had a free trial with a football tipster site ******* and so far since I've been geting the emails they have won everytime from about 9 or 10 bets so thought I'd cut copy and paste them here as it might be of use to you guys. Dont shoot the messenger if they dont win though!
Date of Game: Sunday 9th December Game: Middlesboro v Arsenal - kick off 1.30p.m - Live on Setanta Sports 1 Competition: Premiership Selection: Arsenal no clean sheet Reasoning: Middlesborough generally do well against top half sides at home and especially well at home to the big 4. While the way Arsenal are playing at the minute I would not even consider opposing them we may have an angle in the clean sheet market. Boro have scored in 5 of their 7 Premiership home games this season and 6 of their last 8 games at home to the big 4. Arsenal meanwhile have conceded in 6 of their 7 away games this season. They also have a poor defensive record when away to sides in the bottom 6, having conceded in all 8 of their last 8 of such games. With current odds of 1.75 for a Middlesborough goal we are getting decent value here. ------------------------------------------------------
Date of Game: Sunday 9th December Game: Tottenham v Man.City - kick off 3.00p.m Competition: Premiership Selection: Over 2.5 goals Reasoning: Bit of a no brainer at the moment this bet. As I said last week, Spurs are great going forward but just can't defend. Last weeks 3-2 defeat meant that in the last 20 Premiership at White Hart Lane there have been 77 goals! 17 of those 20 games have finished with over 2.5 goals. Man.City themselves are no stranger to a goal or two in their away games either with 18 coming in their 7 away games so far. At the moment, over 2.5 goals in Spurs home games is just a bet to blindly back every week. -------------------------------------------------
Date of Game: Sunday 9th December Game: Juventus v Atalanta - kick off 2.00p.m - Live on Channel 5 Competition: Serie A Selection: Over 2.5 goals Reasoning: Juventus are the top home scorers in the league with them scoring 19 goals in their 7 home games and 10 in their last 3. They are not averse to conceding a few either though with 13 goals conceded so far. All in all their games have featured a total of 42 goals in their 14 games so far. Atalanta games also feature a high goal rate (37 in 13 so far) and recently that has been getting higher with 16 in their last 4 games. Away from home they have scored in 6 of their 7 games including at Inter and Fiorentina. Looks a solid bet.
Selections for 09/12/07
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Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Absolutly first class :clap
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Re: JT's Specialist Thread - Short Priced Bankers 2.50 Stratford - Sergheyev Won a bumper over in Ireland on his debut and all but 1 of the first 10 home that day have gone on to place, and most have gone on to win Ran a decent race last time out finishing 2nd to Mexican Boband he went on to win a Class 3 race yesterday. Got really agitated before the race that day and was far too keen in the early stages, with a bit more experience now should be much better today. :hope
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Re: JT's Specialist Thread - Short Priced Bankers Won @ 8/13 :nana Thank God for that! Won it very easy in the end. Diasapointed in the price though, I got 1.89 on Betfair about an hour before the race. 6.15 pts profit on the race so total profit/loss now stands at - 5.05 pts :$ Hopefully will be something for tomorrow as obvious as today's to take the total back into the black. After every winner will celebrate with a new girl to the left! Yes I am very, very immature ;)
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Re: JT's Specialist Thread - Short Priced Bankers Cheers Russ, true about the jumps can't wait for NH season to really get going! Whats For Tea came 4th yesterday :$ Total Profit/loss = - 11.20 pts -------------------------------------------- 1.20 Nottingham - Doctor Fremantle Got beat into 2nd last time out as the 1/3 favourite but the winner of that Look Here is probably gonna turn out to be a top class horse so going to forgive that. Beat everything else pretty comfortably (including the 3rd placed Ragamuffin Man who has gone on to win since) and ran really well on his debut in the race before too. Trainer Michael Stoute has had 3 winners from 4 runners in this race and all 3 were odds on shots. Favourites in general have a great record in this race, winning 6 of the 7 runnings of this event. :hope
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Re: JT's Specialist Thread - Short Priced Bankers Crocodiles Rock won the other day @ 4/9 Current profit/loss = - 1.20pts ----------------------------------------- 2.50 Wolverhampton - What's For Tea Has been in decent form this month with one win, one 2nd place (5 lengths clear of 3rd) and two 4th's in his 4 runs. Steps up in trip today 1m141yrds which should suit as he has stayed on in last two races over 7f. Trainer has a 42% strike rate here at Wolverhampton with his 2yo's and this one looks like could improve that record further. :hope
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Re: JT's Specialist Thread - Short Priced Bankers Profit/loss = - 5.60pts :$
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Re: JT's Specialist Thread - Short Priced Bankers Bremen finished 2nd @ 1/4 :$ Not a great start. 1.05 Aintree - Crocodiles Rock Only one of this lot has ever run over hurdles so it is Bumper form we are going on and Crocodiles Rock is miles ahead of the rest. Has 2 wins from 4 runs, one a Class 1 event. Finished 6th in what could turn out to be a very good Cheltenham Grade 1 last time out. Jonjo O'Neill and AP McCoy teamed up in this race last year to win with Wichita Lineman who took the same path and had an almost identical record as Crocodiles Rock this time last year :hope
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Re: JT's Specialist Thread - Short Priced Bankers 4.20 Stratford - Bremen Has some decent Flat form from France where he has a couple of wins and a couple of places to his name. Made his hurdling debut at Perth a month ago and ran really well. Looked the winner until just headed late on and in the end was beaten just 1/2 length by Platin Grounds. That horse went on to win a very decent Class 2 handicap at Cheltenham last week making Bremen's performance at Perth look even better. Has a great chance to open his Jumps account today up against some weak looking opposition. The only opponents who look half decent are making their hurdling debut. Trainer Phillip Hobbs and jockey TJ O'Brien both show a level stakes profit with their horses here at Stratford and this trainer seems to like his hurdlers here as he has a 29% SR and a LSP of +25.19. Should have more than enough to win this one comfortably :hope
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Re: Doncaster 26/10/07 3.25 Doncaster High draw is vital in these big field races at Doncaster. Is one of the biggest biases at any course in the country. Dutching the high drawn trio of Barney McGrew, Tamagin and Maisai Moon looks a decent bet at odds of around 3/1. All 3 are in decent form and will like the trip and ground Very, very few single figure drawn horses place in these big field races at Donnie so a place only lay of Jimmy Styles (drawn 4) and Gift Horse (drawn 1) looks worth a punt. Both are currently around 2/1.
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Re: JT's Specialist Thread - Short Priced Bankers Thanks guys, as you say strike rate is going to be high (hopefully!) but profit may be the tricky thing. Short priced favourites are my usual plays but that is taking early prices and using a decent staking plan. Level stakes to SP is the ultimate test! Ryan Moore showed why he is the man yesterday. Great ride by a great jockey. Price ended up at 4/9 which is slightly disapointing as was around 4/6 in the morning. A win's a win though Total profit/loss = + 4.40pts Nothing for today that I would describe as a banker so no bet today.
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Re: JT's Specialist Thread - Short Priced Bankers Should add every bet is level stakes 10pts per bet
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Not sure if I have the tenure on this forum to be able to start a specialist thread, apologies if there is a set criteria and I haven't fulfilled it yet. I know a lot of people immediatly shy away from short priced favourites but it is where I like to feel I am at my best. Going to try and prove via this thread that it is possible to make a profit backing what will primarily be odds-on shots to level stakes at SP Wish me luck, I may need it! ;) --------------------------------------------- 2.30 Brighton - Maxwil Was very impressed with this one when 4th at Sandown last month. He travelled well but never had the chance to land a blow as he was totally boxed in. Argubly would have won and definatly would have placed that day had he had any kind of run as he was only 2L off the winner despite the jockey never even touching the horse. Both trainer and jockey have a good record here at Brighton. Trainer has a 23% strike rate here with his 2yo's and a 4.62 LSP while jockey Ryan Moore also has a 23% record with 2yo's here and a 20% strike rate overall at Brighton with a LSP of 39.95. Of his opponents only Connors Choice looks a danger but trainer Andrew Turnbull is bang out of form and while he will probably get 2nd cant see him being good enough to beat Maxwil. :hope
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Re: Daily Naps ~ Thursday 3.35 Brighton - Mujood His record on undulating tracks is 4wins/6places/6unplaced compared to 0wins/3places/22unplaced on any other! That record gets even more impressive when narrowing down to runs at this level on undulating tracks as it then reads 3wins/5placed/1unplaced. The 1 unplaced was a very decent 4th of 14 at Brighton too. When narrowed down further to runs at this level on undulating tracks and over todays distance his record reads 3wins/2places/0unplaced. At odds currently of around 7/1 this looks a value bet
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Re: Brighton 25/10/07 Mujood in the 3.35 at Brighton looks interesting. His record on undulating tracks is 4wins/6places/6unplaced compared to 0wins/3places/22unplaced on any other! That record gets even more impressive when narrowing down to runs at this level on undulating tracks as it then reads 3wins/5placed/1unplaced. The 1 unplaced was a very decent 4th of 14 at Brighton too. When narrowed down further to runs at this level on undulating tracks and over todays distance his record reads 3wins/2places/0unplaced. At odds currently of around 7/1 this looks a value bet :hope
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Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Unlucky with that one mate, I was on it too and Majuro in front hanged into our horses path. Def one to look out for next time it runs over 7f at this level imo
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Re: Fontwell 09/09/07
Terramique (4.20 Fontwell) has some good stats on his side - Won or placed in last 11 races (8 wins, 3 places). All but two were at Class 4. - Has won 2 out of 2 here at Fontwell - Has won 2 out of 2 at todays distance - Has won 7 out of 8 (placed in the other) on good to firm ground - Has won 2 out of 2 when running in September - Has won 7 out of 10 when ridden by todays jockey Marcus Foley (placed in other 3) - Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 25% strike rate at this course - Jockey Marcus Foley has a 20% strike rate here too - Trainer/jockey combination had a 30% strike rate last season and are starting this season in same vein (3 wins from 6 runs) Looks worth a flutter to me at around 6/4 last time I looked :hope
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Re: Euro 2008 Matches (Sep 8)
Patriots look away now!
Is never something I am 100% comfortable doing, but am planning on opposing England tomorrow. :$ England under McClaren have been poor, especially at home. In the 6 home games under McClaren we have won just 2 (Greece and Andorra) and also failed to beat Macedonia (0-0 draw) last year in qualifying. With either certain absence or serious doubts over the participation of 1st team regulars Lampard, Gerrard, Beckham, Hargreaves, Rooney, Crouch, Neville aswell as various fringe squad players, this match is by far the foregone conclusion the odds compilers seem to think. Israel are no mugs. They currently sit 2nd in the group and have a fantastic away record the past few qualifying campaigns. They haven't lost a competitive away match since they lost to France in 2003. Since then they have won or drawn in Russia, Switzerland, Ireland and France amongst others. They held England 0-0 at home in March and with England in even worse shape now than they were then I see no reason why England are as short as 1.37 to lay. Englands home record since McClaren took charge and Israels away record in competitive games since start of 2006 qualifying is below. The WON/DRAW/LOST refers to the England or Israel result. Englands home record under McClaren Greece - WON 4-0 Andorra - WON 5-0 Macedonia - DREW 0-0 Spain - LOST 1-0 Brazil - DREW 1-1 Germany LOST 2-1 Israel's away record in competitve games last 2 qualifying tournaments France - DREW 0-0 Cyprus - WON 2-1 Ireland - DREW 2-2 Switzerland - DREW 2-2 Faroe Isles - WON 2-0 Estonia - WON 1-0 Russia - DREW 1-1 Macedonia - WON 2-1 Andorra - WON 2-0 Looks dodgy for us to me, if the bet loses then fine cos England have won, if it wins then its compensation for England probably not qualifying.
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Re: Horse Alerts? Thanks guys, just what i was after :ok
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Anyone know of a decent horse alert service that let you know by email that a horse is running the night before or very early that morning? Had a look on Google and it seems to be all texting services. Any of you guys use one?
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Re: Goodwood - Tue 04/09/07 Mowgli, I have only posted a few tips up here so far but this is the 3rd time I have gone to post my tip and saw that you have posted the same already! I am encouraged by this as I must be doing something right if agreeing with yourself :notworthy I will also be backing Lovelace today, as has been said is a horse who has looked good so far and seems to be getting better in every race. I only bet on "potential" horses when the opponents are proven failures at this level. While that may be slightly harsh on a couple of his opponents today they can in no way be described as consistant Group 3 performers. They have just 3 Group wins between them and 1 of those was over 4 years ago. Would be hard to argue that any of them are true Group class and it would be hard to imagine any of them improving now. Our boy meanwhile has proved he is too good for Class 2 so this is the next step for him and it wont take too much of an improvement to be in the reckoning here :hope
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Re: Kempton 27/08/07
The 4.00 is race that looks tight on paper but there are a fair few with negatives against them, and my selection has his preffered conditions today. Firstly the ones I'm ruling out. Prince Tamino and Viking Spirit both have enough question marks against them to put me off. Prince Tamino's performances this year have been poor, with not even a place to his name in his 4 runs. Has a 2nd place in a Listed race to his name but has shown nothing since then and cannot back until he has shown at least a glimpse of a return to form. Also wearing a visor for the first time which puts me off further. Viking Spirit is a horse I like but not on the all weather. Has not won a race in 4 attempts and has been beaten on sand by a few of his opponents today who are weighted better than him here. 11/2 shot Bomber Command is an All Weather specialist but this distance seems too sharp for him to me. The yard is also out of form which always is a big negative for me. Of the outsiders, Wessex hasn't raced for 127 days and may need the run, Moonlight Man has finished 10th of 12 and 13th of 15 on the sand, Woodcote is an unknown quantity on this surface and Dianes Choice has done all her winning at 5f. The rank outsider of the bunch Dingaan has a great record on the sand with 3 wins from 5 and did interest but he hasn't performed lately and is too much of a risk. By process of elimination then the selection today is top weight Mutamared. His All Weather record is strong (2 wins, 2 places from his 4 runs), as is his course record (a win and a place in his 2 races here) indeed won here at course, distance and class 11 months ago, the only horse in the race that can say that. Runs over his best distance today (5 wins, 3 places in 15 runs). Gave the performance of his life when he came 2nd of 29 in a very strong Class 2 handicap. Has all in his favour, at the price (7/2) is good value bet. :hope
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Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Excellent tipping :notworthy Well done Mowgli :clap
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Re: Daily NAPS 24/08/07
Well done JT and Mowgli... I watched the race on Betfair and for some reason they intially gave the win to Osteopathic remedy! It was only when I checked my betting account that realised it had won!
Yeah bloke at work who watched the race on his break told me it lost too! Was only when i got home and saw on teletext that I realised I had a winner. Thought he was just winding me up, might have to shelve my plans of revenge then if it was announced as a loser! Well played Mowgli :clap
Premier League Darts Week 1 - 31/01/08
in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions
Posted
Re: Premier League Darts Week 1 - 31/01/08 Cant wait for this, right back into my darts lately. Been getting some tips from a site www.ontheoche.co.uk which have been good so far. This is their write up for Thursday, sounds good to me but don't shoot the messenger! :) :hope
PDC Whyte & Mackay Premier League Darts 2008 - Week 1
So, the Premier League begins again this Thursday. John Part and Wayne Mardle make their returns after missing out last year, while James Wade makes his Premier League debut. Dropping out this year are Dennis Priestley, Roland Scholten and Colin Lloyd. Just for clarification to those not familiar with the format, each match is best of 14 legs with a 7-7 draw possible. The first 4 in the league at the end of the season will take part in the playoffs with the winner being crowned in the Grand Final. Now, onto Thursday nights games. I usually have 2 or 3 bets each week, but for this 1st week I think it is best to take mainly a watching brief. Match 1 - Raymond Barneveld v Wayne Mardle An interesting match to kick off with, from a viewing perspective if not a betting one. It will be the first time Barney has played a competitive match since his exit from the World Championships and will be interesting to see how he fares. I don't think Barney is the biggest fan of the Premier League. He has made it clear that he is not pleased with the amount of travelling he has to do this year (of which the Premier League makes up the most) and he is not overly enamoured with the louder, more rowdy crowds that the Premier League brings. He had talked about pulling out of this years event, albeit straight after his WC exit and there was never any inkling it was a serious threat. Barney is a top pro at the end of the day and there was never any danger of him not being here. Is quite hard to evaluate his form at the minute. He had the whole of January off so the last form we have to look at is the World Championships, but even then he wasn't 100% physically. It is true to say that coming into the WC's Barney wasn't at his best and he has been messing about with his darts lately, chopping and changing constantly. This month off though could have done him the world of good as he should have been able to put the hours in without travelling to Gateshead one week, then Gibraltor the next which is quite a draining schedule, especially as Barney would have been coming over from the Netherlands. This match is going to tell us a lot about Raymond and his state of mind. As for Wayne Mardle, since the World Championships (which he is still not properly over) he has suffered early exits in all of his tour events. In the UK Open in Gateshead he went out in the 3rd round to Wes Newton in a close game which came down to missed doubles. Newton did go on to reach the semi's of that tournament so not a disgrace by any means. In Gibraltor, he lost in the 4th round to Alex Roy (who again, went on to have a good weekend) in the Saturday event and in the 3rd round to Mark Walsh in the Sunday tournament. While you can't say he is out of form as all 3 defeats were very close, he is nowhere near his best at the moment and it is hard to see him getting the better of barney on Thursday night Recommended Bet - None - Should be a Barney win if he has prepared well but there is no value in backing him at 1.3-odd so no bet ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Match 2 - Terry Jenkins v Adrian Lewis When the fixtures came out for Week 1, this was the game I did not want to see. The reason being, both players are really out of form at the minute and I was keen to oppose both. Since exiting the World Championships, Lewis has shown a poor attitude to the game. He didn't practice for weeks after the WC and has only re-started in the past few days. The lack of practice has shown in his recent tournaments. In the UK Open in Gateshead he suffered a 4th round exit, then in Gibraltor he had a really disapointing weekend. He went out in the 4th round to John Ferell in the Saturday tournament and then really struggled in the Sunday event. Narrowly avoided defeat to Dylan Duo (3-2) in the 1st round then Mick MacGowan to the same scoreline before losing 3-1 in the 3rd round to Wayne Atwood. Adrian Lewis should be beating these sort of players easily and is really out of sorts right now. Terry Jenkins is in a similar run of form himself at the moment. Was poor for a couple of months before the World Championships, then went out in the 1st round of the WC. Since then has gone out in round 3,4 and 4 albeit to decent opponents in Tony Eccles, Andy Jenkins (who that day was really impressive) and Dennis Ovens who is a match for anyone on the floor. All in all this could go either way so you could say the value is with Terry Jenkins at the bigger price, but both are just so out of form that you cannot be trusting your money on either at the moment. With both players out of form it is going to be a big win for one of these two. A defeat is going to knock what is already low confidence. Recommended Bet - None - Two players bang out of form ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Match 3 - Peter Manley v John Part I'm sure you probably saw this one coming! Once again John has been underated by the odds compilers. 2008 couldn't have started any better for John Part. Firstly being crowned World Champion for the third time in a tournament where he really showed his class and consistancy. After his big win he went back home to Canada missing the UK Open Regional before returning to the circuit in style the first of the Players Championships in Gibraltor and he picked up where he left off picking up another title. In his 6 matches he dropped just 3 sets on his way to the final. In the Sunday tournament he narrowly missed out losing 3-2 to Mervyn King in a classic. I just cannot see Part's form taking a dip, he is not just playing well he is doing it consistantly week in, week out and has been for the last 6 months now. Peter Manley hasn't had a great start to the year with a 4th round exit in the UK Open to Dennis Ovens, which is no disgrace considering the form of The Heat right now, followed by a very disapointing weekend in Gibraltor. Two 2nd round defeats to Lionel Sams (3-0) and Matt Clarke (3-1) is not good enough. I would make Part around 1.5 - 1.6 so the 1.8 available is good value in my book. Recommended Bet - 10pts on John Part to bt Peter Manley @ 1.8 with Betfair / Skybet / ExtraBet ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Match 4 - Phil Taylor v James Wade This should be a belter! An opening game neither would have wanted really. Taylor will be looking to bounce back after an indifferent World Championships by his standards. There has been a bit of an over-reaction to that tournament in my opinion. It is foolish to say Phil is on his way down and to write him off as some are doing. Of the last 5 tournaments he has entered, he has won 4 and averaged 100+ in a couple of them. His WC wasn't as bad as it appeared either. Michael Van Gerwin in the 1st round will be a match in quarters, semi's and finals in the next few years, Mark Walsh is back to his best now and would have been a tough game for anyone and the same can be said for Alan Tabern next round. Went out to Mardle of course in the end in a game he really should have closed out. It wasn't vintage Taylor by any means but to say he is on a downward spiral is a massive over-reaction. Has also had January off so best to wait and see what he comes back as on Thursday. James Wade, like Taylor, would have expected a better World Championships but he has bounced back well with a semi-final, 4th round and win in his 3 tournaments since. That win was in the Sunday Gibraltor tournament and was very impressive. This competition is a big, big test for him and will show us how good he actually is over the course of the next few months. Recommended Bet - None - Could be anything. One thing to watch out for is if Wade gets a strong lead to maybe oppose him in-running as he does tend to go off the boil a bit when he gets a lead and Taylor is the master of the comeback. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Selections for 31/01/08 10pts on John Part to bt Peter Manley @ 1.8 with Betfair / Skybet / ExtraBet