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vabanque

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Posts posted by vabanque

  1. Re: Greyhound laying system (SR 93% - ROI 54%) wow :clap A working greyhound system is a rare thing (despite the dissertation of Mathews). The odds movements at betfair are a point of concern, though - it isn't always easy to get matched at the right price, is it? Even more without a bot - and autobetfair is down since this week :wall Just one statistical remark: your yield is not 54% since you have to calculate the profit on liability instead of profit on back stakes (as you did until now). And because your liability is relatively high it'll take quite a while before things can be evaluated really... I wish you good luck and will follow this thread closely ;)

  2. Re: Question about : backing the (football-)outsider on Betfair yes, unfortunately you miss something here: your theory demands one of two things: or you get a 10%-plus on overround on ALL these underdogs, or the overround on all these underdogs (according to their odds) is constant (the same). but as you do not get these 10%-plus on everyone (sometimes yes, sometimes not) and the overround can swing in real life (who knows?) the times you do get the good odds, the "true" overround could be even higher, while the times you don't get it the overround could be lower. that's why blind systems don't work.

  3. Re: Monty Hall Paradox Lay (Draw)

    Cheers PAULM03, In short it means that when confronted with 3 options similar to a 1X2, once a punter has made a choice for example 1, and then told that somehow one of the two remaining options is a certain false for exmaple X, than theres a 2/3 probability he'll succeed if he switches he's pick to the remaining option: 2.
    Well, if the draw is a certain false... of course I would lay it. The question remains how to know that one of the options is a false :unsure
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