vabanque
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Posts posted by vabanque
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Re: Greyhound laying system (SR 94%) The greyhounds are the future! :cow
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Re: Greyhound laying system (SR 93% - ROI 54%) Newc 19:42 T1 drifted to 24.0 one minute before the off :eek
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Re: Greyhound laying system (SR 93% - ROI 54%) wow :clap A working greyhound system is a rare thing (despite the dissertation of Mathews). The odds movements at betfair are a point of concern, though - it isn't always easy to get matched at the right price, is it? Even more without a bot - and autobetfair is down since this week :wall Just one statistical remark: your yield is not 54% since you have to calculate the profit on liability instead of profit on back stakes (as you did until now). And because your liability is relatively high it'll take quite a while before things can be evaluated really... I wish you good luck and will follow this thread closely ;)
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Re: Need Some Help It depends on what your edge is based upon. Is it on winning favs, on winning dogs, on relative strength or what? Be careful when changing a winning team ...
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Re: Question about : backing the (football-)outsider on Betfair yes, unfortunately you miss something here: your theory demands one of two things: or you get a 10%-plus on overround on ALL these underdogs, or the overround on all these underdogs (according to their odds) is constant (the same). but as you do not get these 10%-plus on everyone (sometimes yes, sometimes not) and the overround can swing in real life (who knows?) the times you do get the good odds, the "true" overround could be even higher, while the times you don't get it the overround could be lower. that's why blind systems don't work.
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Re: Monty Hall Paradox Lay (Draw)
Well, if the draw is a certain false... of course I would lay it. The question remains how to know that one of the options is a false :unsureCheers PAULM03, In short it means that when confronted with 3 options similar to a 1X2, once a punter has made a choice for example 1, and then told that somehow one of the two remaining options is a certain false for exmaple X, than theres a 2/3 probability he'll succeed if he switches he's pick to the remaining option: 2. -
Re: Two Lays for Tuesday Joe Mchugh must have read this - he's a N/R now ;)
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Re: One Lay for Monday Simply great! :notworthy
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Re: One Lay for Sunday :clap Don ! Well done. Have joined you this time ...
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Re: one lay for thursday Don! Very well spotted! :ok Shame, I didn't get on ...
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Re: The Everton System Hi mrmuzeman Nice pice of statistic! Patterns like the one you've described come and go without warning. :\ I can't see any edge in following them but wish you good luck anyway! :hope
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Re: Laying Hi dave Laying odds-on horses in handicaps sounds good to me too. Just haven't seen any statistical proof of it yet. Were it your stats or did you quote anyone else?
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Re: A new Intelligent Roulette System An algorithm that's able to reverse a statistical disadvantage would be much more than just *intelligent* - I would call it *genious* at least.
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Re: NBA friday Only got two of your picks, because the lines were moving quick. Thank you anyway, dino! :cheers Simply great work!
Laying Correct Scores
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: Laying Correct Scores Very nice thread, Hodgey! I'm just too stupid, I can't find any correct scores odds at betbrain... only overs and unders :$ Do you have a pro version or where do you get these odds from exactly? Keep it going and good luck!