Cymro
-
Posts
195 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by Cymro
-
-
Re: Heineken Cup Another good Friday night Drogba. Just a few for me this weekend to try and get off the mark: 5pts Dragons (-3) to beat London Irish @ Evs (Boyles) I was quite disparaging about the Dragon's chances last weekend and they certainly proved me wrong by coming away from Perpignan frustrated that they hadn't won. That ranks for me as one of the best Welsh performances in the Heineken Cup and sets them up nicely for an assault on this group. Kevin Morgan's return is huge for them today and they will fancy taking on a London Irish side which, Catt and Leguizamon aside, is loaded with journeymen and has had a poor start to the season. The Dragons have that extra quality in Morgan, Charvis, Owen and Rhys Thomas who is in great form, and I fancy them to boss this game up front and beat the handicap. 5pts Treble (Biarritz, Perpignan, Stade Francais) @ Evs (Boyles) Not much to say on this one, I'd be very surprised if any of these lost, Stade Francais @ 2/5 to beat a poor Bristol side is a great price and I think evens is good value for the three. Looking ahead to tomorrow, Clermont to stay within 12 of Munster looks good, and the outright win at 7/2 may not be as unlikely as the bookies think. P.S. For those betting on Cardiff vs Quins, note that Cardiff have no scrum half on the bench!
-
Re: Ulster v Gloucester Heineken Cup Nice tipping Drogba you must have enjoyed watching that game last night. :clap Didn't count on the Dragons putting up such a good performance, fair play to them on getting a bonus point though. The way their fixtures pan out now they could have a game to win the group against Perpignan in the last round of matches. 9/1 with skybet to win the group looks very attractive. As for today's game the handicappers look like they've got it spot on for most of the games. One bet I think is worth a dabble is the Ospreys to beat Bourgoin by more than 18. They have looked good in the last two (EDF) games running up big scores against weak opposition. I don't see Bourgoin on their travels as being any better than Worcester or London Irish given their dubious commitment to the HC in the past. Milloud, their best player, is out and they also have Chris Wyatt playing for them (lol), they should have a good night out in Swansea at least whatever happens on the pitch. Big things are expected of the Ospreys in Europe, with their expensive squad and a generous group this year. They may yet struggle in the Gloucester games but I think they'll start this year's competition with a bang. Hook, Henson, Byrne and Shane Williams are all in cracking form, and Holah at 7 is a class act who will provide the quality openside play that the Ospreys have missed the last few seasons. 5pts Ospreys (-18) to beat Bourgoin. Also fancy Leicester to win outright at Leinster, two good sides on display but Leicester impressed me a lot last week with their back play as much as anything. I just think they'll have the edge up front in this one and put Leinster on the back foot. 5pts Leicester to beat Leinster.
-
Re: Ulster v Gloucester Heineken Cup Don't think you will go far wrong with the handicap bet there mate, Ulster are having a very unimpressive start to the season whereas Gloucester are shaping up nicely. Tough group though this one with the Ospreys also battling for top spot. Haven't had time to size up the HC outrights but still plenty of time to go in this tournament I suppose. One bet for me on tonight's games, that is 5pts Perpignan (-16) to beat Dragons @ 10/11 (Paddy Power). Perpignan have been handed one of the most one-sided groups in HC history and the Dragons will not be able to cope with the ferocity of the home side at the legendary Stade Aime Giral. No Welsh team has ever won there, and the Dragons are pretty poor in a European context. Can't see them living with Perpignan's power tonight, and I expect them to be on the receiving end of a bonus point victory.
-
Re: EDF Energy Cup 2007/08 Oh dear. Shocker of a game, Scarlets smashed up front and very little imagination behind, seems like every time I bet on them this season they do the opposite to what I expect. Maybe a lesson there... Let's hope next weekend goes a bit better.
-
Re: EDF Energy Cup 2007/08
Skybet had moved their line out to 3 when I looked yesterday (Oddschecker seems slow to update their prices), but hopefully that won't make a difference. As for the Ospreys, you are now out on your own as favourites for the EDF! Bit of an overreaction I would say as Worcester had over half the ball yesterday, but just couldn't do anything with it. Fair play to the Ospreys though they were pretty clinical whenever they got a chance, and very positive.well that draw was always coming after I avoided all 3 yesterday :eyes ..Ospreys - well yes, I'm suprised. I think we doubled our season try tally in today's match :lol. Didn't see the game so I don't know if we dominated all 80, but the tries all looked great on the highlights. Lyn Jones encouraging attacking rugby, or just a few moments of brilliance from Hook and Shane that happened to come off today against lacklustre oponents?? Only time will tell. Well done on your bet aswell cymro this does look quite weak, I think I might go along with you on Llanelli. Skybet go -2 though. -
Re: EDF Energy Cup 2007/08
Mixed bag today with the Ospreys putting in a classy performance to dispatch a really poor Worcester side, something to smile about 2hcb? ;) The weekend of draws continued at Rodney Parade (and Kingsholm also in Group A!) so Wasps couldn't quite sneak it in the rain despite looking the likelier side. 3-3 a fair reflection of the quality on show (i.e. none), -0.45pts for the day. Hopefully tomorrow can tip me into profit for the weekend. As previously stated Llanelli have a kind draw in this year's tournament and they know if they win at Bristol they will have one foot in the semi finals. The way the first weekend has gone so far has highlighted the difference in the way the English and Welsh sides play. I don't want to make too much of this in terms of what is better for preparing for international rugby but in the context of Welsh sides going full tilt against occasionally half-hearted English teams in the EDF the expansive game certainly seems to pay dividends. Llanelli have been running in the tries early in the season and Bristol have traditionally not been too bothered about this competition so I expect the Scarlets to come away with a comfortable win. Llanelli are strengthened by the return of Peel, Mark Jones and Easterby and have a very strong bench also, I think this game will be evenly matched up front but the Scarlet backs will have too much for the home team tomorrow, Ã la Ospreys today. 5pts Scarlets (-3) to beat Bristol @ 10/11 (Stan James)5pts Ospreys (-4) to beat Worcester @ 10/11 (Boyles) :) 5pts Wasps to beat Dragons @ 11/10 (bet365) :( -
Thought it might be worth getting a thread started on this competition. First games were last night with Cardiff (:cow) and Saracens notching up big victories. For those of you new to the tournament there are four pools of four teams as below with the winners going through to the semi final stage. There are only three fixtures in the group stages so half the teams have the advantage of two home games (these are marked with * below). Also, bonus points are in operation in this competition. Pool A Wasps * Gloucester Dragons * Newcastle Pool B Leicester * Cardiff Sale Bath * Pool C Ospreys London Irish * Harlequins * Worcester Pool D Llanelli * Bristol * Leeds Saracens Not overly tempted by the outrights at this stage, I think Llanelli will go very well with a nice set of fixtures but 6/1 is probably about right. Cardiff may be lucky to catch Leicester before their best team is up and running but still have to travel to Bath for the final round of games so not too hopeful there. The winner of Wasps-Gloucester (at Wasps) will go a long way but it's too close to call for me. Ospreys have a tricky sort of group but you would expect them (on paper) to reach the semis. On to this weekends games then and the ones that I am interested in are Bristol-Llanelli tomorrow, Ospreys-Worcester and Dragons-Wasps. I'll leave Llanelli until tomorrow but I think they are an absolute stick-on to beat Bristol the way they have been playing. The Ospreys have put out an impressive side to play Worcester and although the home side has many familiar names in it and decent GP players the extra class that the Ospreys have, i.e. Marshall, Hook, Henson, Gough, Evans should see them prevail. Also the one man who the O's would be wary of, Rico Gear, is not playing for Worcester. Boyles give the Welsh side a 4pt handicap which I think will be covered with ease. 5pts Ospreys (-4) to beat Worcester @ 10/11 (Boyles) Onto the game at Rodney Parade tonight and for some reason the bookies have priced this up with the home side as favourites. Wasps haven't had the best of starts to the season but the Dragons are nothing special at this stage in their campaign and miss Kevin Morgan who is the provider of most of their attacking flair. Michael Owen plays second row also which is something he's not done for a while. Looking down the Wasps team sheet there is a lot of experience there with a tough set of forwards and creativity behind. I think they'll take this competition very seriously and would certainly have them favourites for this game so the value is in the away win at odds-against. 5pts Wasps to beat Dragons @ 11/10 (bet365)
-
Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Absolutely amazing results tonight, to see one draw is rare enough but 3 from 3, incredible. No Magners League next weekend, instead the far more appealing prospect of the EDF (and then the Heineken Cup I believe) so hopefully things will return to normal in about a month's time. Edit: I tell a lie, the Irish and Scottish teams are playing next weekend which will level things out at 6 games each, with the next full set of fixtures on the 23rd Nov.
-
Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Well, not the greatest final in the end but it was unlikely to be a classic with the two teams involved, don't think I have seen an entertaining World Cup final but was still a fantastic experience to be present at one. Best moment for me was when, just before the South Africans were to be presented with the trophy, a guy in an England shirt just strolled out of the crowd, walked up to the Trophy, picked it up and kissed it before the stewards knew what was going on! Not sure if it made it on to TV but hopefully will make its way onto Youtube at some point - bloody hilarious! Despite the final I think this has been the best WC ever, and hopefully the game will continue to grow over the next four years. On the betting front, I've ended up just shy of 60pts up after Clerc was top tryscorer for France and Fourie and Giteau tied for places, which is better than I could have hope for. Seems like nearly everyone else has been in profit with some great winners on this thread over the last few months. It's been very enjoyable contributing and I look forward to trying to make some more money on the rugby over the rest of the season.:ok
-
Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Have been a bit shocked to say the least by Saturday's result, not only did it scupper my France outright bet (which I'm glad I laid off, France played totally the wrong game but always liable to bottle it) but I've now got the prospect of a trip to Paris on Saturday with my English mates, not what I was expecting when I ordered my ticket all those months ago! The therapy is going well though :tongue2 so hopefully I can enjoy the game for what it is going to be. I think the value has to lie with England for the big one, I don't rate SA that much more highly than Aus or France at their best but they're definitely more consistent. The thing is though I can't see England being intimidated now and a few of the guys will be going out there thinking this could be my last game (ever, for the likes of Robinson) and will give absolutely everything. I also think that given England got a fair bit of dominance against France in the scrum, then the Boks will have to be careful here. Probably won't bet on this one but England with a handicap of 9 is what I'm most tempted by. There may be another betting opportunity on Friday with the 3rd place match. Argentina have named more or less their best side yet are 10/3 in places to win. France have made loads of changes, and probably won't care too much about this game despite having lost to Argentina already. Bit of a nothing game but maybe worth a small bet, will reconsider later in the week.
-
Re: HSBC World Matchplay Golf 11-14 October Unlucky with Cabrera earlier Kev, an awesome week from the big man which I hope has seen you in profit but he just couldn't squeeze out another couple of low rounds. Ernie just got his putting going when it mattered from yesterday afternoon onwards which made all the difference. I make it -1.5pts for myself over the tournament but I'm not too disappointed overall, all the picks gave themselves chances but missed too many putts which is matchplay I guess - definitely a few lessons learned for next time. Much prefer betting on this to strokeplay golf so can't wait for the next tournament to come around whenever that might be.
-
Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 I didn't bother betting on the game in the end and in some ways I'm glad I didn't as the Ospreys are still not reliable enough in my eyes (which surprises me). This match summed up what is wrong with the Magners League, Ospreys played well for about 15 minutes and won easily, this isn't going to prepare anyone for European/international rugby. Far too many mistakes and only Byrne and the young lad Owen at 10 really did anything of note. For an 18 year old he looked pretty good, another young talent for Welsh rugby to ruin.
-
Re: HSBC World Matchplay Golf 11-14 October Jaded, the match has already started and Cabrera is 3 down at the halfway stage. Els is scoring pretty well so not sure there is much value in those odds.
-
Re: HSBC World Matchplay Golf 11-14 October Going to go against you for once Kev tomorrow. Think you have a great chance with Stenson, but am going to back Mahan vs Cabrera. The Californian has had two pretty comfortable games thus far and would appear to enjoy playing on this Wentworth course from what I've seen and heard. Cabrera has also had a good run to the semis but from watching his game earlier he got quite a few breaks e.g. long putts and chip ins which gave the match a slightly flattering score. I'd be surprised if this level of scoring continues and think that given Mahan's good all-round game, 13/8 is a big price in a two horse race. 5pts Mahan to beat Cabrera @ 13/8 (Ladbrokes)
-
Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Unlucky tonight 2hcb seems like we both picked value away wins and only one could hold out. Keep picking results like that and I'm sure you'll be OK. Quite tempted by your boys against Munster on Sunday, looking at the two teams the handicap of 6 should be easy to cover, but the Ospreys are an unpredictable lot. What are your thoughts on this one?
-
Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Into week 6 we go with the teams starting to resemble something like first choice lineups. Cardiff take on Connacht at home and have named Jenkins, Williams and Shanklin in the team, no Nicky Robinson in the squad though which is a concern, should be an easy win but not sure we will cover the 16pt handicap. Two bets interest me this weekend, Ospreys to beat Munster which is on Sunday, but also tonight I fancy a small bet on the Dragons to win in Edinburgh. The Dragons despatched Ulster pretty comfortably at home last week and are strengthened further by the return of Charvis and Owen. Their team is looking a bit more settled and certainly has enough to win in Scotland tonight. Edinburgh have no Scottish internationals back as the disinterest towards the Magners League continues. Hopefully this will be the last week of understrength teams being put out. 4pts Dragons to beat Edinburgh @ 5/4 (Boyles)
-
Re: HSBC World Matchplay Golf 11-14 October Mixed news today with Rose's departure from the tournament, Hansen's comfortable win and Romero having to come back tomorrow to finish off. Rose was a big disappointment today, caught the first few holes and the latter stages on the box and he gave himself plenty of chances but couldn't putt anything, he missed some from as close as 3-4 feet and never led at any point in the game. Annoying. With Romero/Fasth and Stenson/Austin having to finish off tomorrow the other outrights for Kev and myself are in the balance. It also means that there are only odds for two of the four games. Fancy one of them though and that is Cabrera to beat Casey, course form has already been mentioned for Cabrera but what appeals to me on this one is the way the two guys played today. Both had reasonably comfortable wins but Cabrera played much more consistent golf than the Englishmen summed up as follows: Casey: 34 holes 7 birdies 21 pars 4 bogeys 2 doubles Cabrera: 31 holes 11 birdies 19 pars 1 bogey Casey had to put away his driver and 3 wood at the end as he couldn't find a fairway. Cabrera also had the tougher match vs Goosen so would definitely have him favourite for this one. Paddy Power go Evens on the Argentine though which is a crazy price in my book. 10 pts Cabrera to beat Casey @ Evs (Paddy Power)
-
Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Jumbo, hope you continue to post on here as your views are always well-thought out and appreciated. Thought it was a bit strange that our resident Bulgarian could provide such an insightful analysis of Saturday's game. What a pathetic thing to do. Following on from previous posts I've decided to bet on England to get through to the final to cover off my original bet. Don't want to stake any more than that as I still think France are in with a good chance of the Trophy. 5pts England to Qualify (for final) @ 5/2 (Stan James)
-
Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread :welcome to the thread Alkoholenmaniak! Better late than never! ;) Great write-up on Saturday's game, but just one thing I would comment on...
I can't agree about the kicking, it may have worked in hindsight as a containing ploy against NZ (but you could argue the ABs didn't take advantage of the poor kicks) but I don't think it suits France all that much and is not a game-winning tactic. Traille at fullback is not something I am very comfortable with either. I know WC semis aren't about running the tries in but I think France need to get a platform and get the backs moving to beat England, anything else and they are playing into their hands. Beauxis as a kicker I am a bit nervous about also. Can't call either of the weekend's games, really scared that England could win (for any number of reasons, not least the fact I'm going to the final with an English mate!) and can definitely see it happening so will probably just end up on them to cover my France bet.France have looked far more structured in their Forwards and backs and their tactical kicking has been great -
Re: HSBC World Matchplay Golf 11-14 October This event kicks off tomorrow so time to get some bets up. Weather looks set fair for the four days so hopefully we'll be treated to some great games. 5pts E/W J Rose @ 13/2 Stan James (1/2 odds 1,2) On the outrights have decided to go from one from each side of the draw. First up is Justin Rose who has had an impressive season in the US and Europe and is maturing into an excellent, all-round golfer. He's got recent course form with his playoff defeat here to Hansen earlier in the year and some decent matchplay form having reached the last 8 of the WGC Matchplay in February (defeating Mickelson en route). I think 13/2 looks a good price for what appears a slightly favourable draw. 2pts E/W A Romero @ 22/1 Paddy Power (1/2 odds 1,2) My other outright is more of a longshot and that is Andres Romero, yes he's in Ernie's quarter but one big result could see him make a fair bit of progress and I think this guy has got what it takes to compete with the very best. Big driver and a great putter so should enjoy the matchplay format, has been a bit of a birdie machine on tour, let down by double-bogeys on occasions so hopefully that won't have too much impact on his matchplay scoring. Just the one match that takes the fancy, have gone off Austin vs Stenson as Stenson (despite his very average form) won the WGC matchplay earlier in the year. 5pts A Hansen to beat P Harrington @ 6/4 (Boyles) As mentioned above Hansen has great course form and a win on the new course layout which ought to count for a lot against the Open Champion. Harrington's a fine matchplay golfer but hasn't played all that much golf since the Open with mixed results, so I'm tempted by the upset here. Certainly think Hansen is over-priced after his decent form this season.
-
Re: HSBC World Matchplay Golf 11-14 October
Cheers Kev. Another one to watch might be Anders Hansen who has two victories and a T4 in the PGA Champs (including this year) at Wentworth. He has Harrington in the first round though and doesn't seem to have played a lot of matchplay from what I can gather i.e. no Ryder Cup or Seve Trophy experience.It's stuck my friend :ok. I didn't do too badly in this last year like you say mate. If memory serves, Shaun Micheel was always silly odds and I followed him every round including the 1st round against the Tiger :D. Hopefully we'll do nicely from it this time. Big fan of matchplay golf. Always want to be keeping Els and Cabrera on side around here. Els lives here and Cabrera loves it here. Both have superb records around here. -
-
Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Well done to everyone on Fiji and pie-chucker on your Argentina bets - you won't want this tournament to end mate! :ok What a contrasting couple of games today, Fiji were literally inches from taking a try-scoring lead with 20 to go on two occasions, but the Bokke did just enough to close out. Massive credit to Fiji for the way they play their rugby. You have to think SA will prefer to play the structured rugby of Argentina. As for Scotland-Argentina, apparently they were trying to break the world record for the number of kicks in this game but the guy counting them fell asleep. The Hernandez-driven machine powers on but not for much longer surely? Scotland looked OK when Cusiter came on but until then were shocking. One of the worst games I have ever seen. Early prices for England-France give England as much as a 10 point headstart or 11/4 outright, might look to hedge a bit of my outright positionon this one as there is a bit of value there I would say. French pack won't take any crap from England though and no comparison out wide. Plenty of time to ponder this one.
-
Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Following on from previous posts I'm gonna go with medium stakes on Fiji to stay within 36pts. Main reason is that SA don't need to win by this much, but also that Fiji should be able to notch a couple of tries against the favourites seeing as USA and Tonga were able to do so. After yesterday's results the Boks will just want to secure a place in the semis, and they know the best way to beat Fiji is to keep it tight and squeeze the set piece rather than chucking it around. 5pts Fiji (+36) to beat South Africa @ 10/11 (Paddy Power)
Heineken Cup
in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions
Posted
Re: Heineken Cup
No bet on this game after all, price is now out to 9/2 but Clermont are without Rougerie, Brock James, Mignoni, Bonnaire, Privat and Audebert. According to their website they're not injured so cannot understand this at all.