FishGuy
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Posts posted by FishGuy
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Re: RP Weekender Im pretty sure it doesn't come out until a Thursday, I noticed you posted this on Wednesday, perhaps ask your newsagent today. I could be wrong.
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Re: Scottish National Looks like Lothian Falcon is not running and has been entered in a different meeting. :cry Thats my Ante Post money down the drain!
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Re: Horse Racing "Fan" Site
Yes I think laying out the historic data is the way to go, especially making it easier to pick out trends. I dont know whether it is best to start with the big races perhaps by racecourse, thus less updates required.Yea, I'm very aware of that. As I said, best thing to do for now is get the layout and historic data up to speed, then see where i lie after this -
Re: Horse Racing "Fan" Site The main problem you are going to have is keeping it up to date, all these stats people are requesting will be very time consuming on a daily basis.
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Re: Horse Racing "Fan" Site http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=30348&page=2 This thread gives some XML feeds you can use to display odds from various book makers on your site for comparison, people may find useful.
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Re: Horse Racing "Fan" Site I noticed on the forum there was a punters tools section, I intend to scour this for any existing services which can supply information when I have time, maybe you can find useful ideas too!
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Re: Horse Racing "Fan" Site I am looking for a service which provides uptodate form or trends via a webservice. Basically I want to enter all the horses (in a particular race) into my app and my app use some resource to pick out different specific stats on each runner to calculate my personal ratings. So similar to you I am looking for any rources which are preferably free and available in an electronic format without having to do page scraping.
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Re: Ante Post Betting When does Ante Post stop being ante post i.e non runner stakes returned. I notice Comply or Die is still available on Betfair for the Scottish national but his trainer has already said he will not run again this season. Is that easy money for someone with a big bank to lay?
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Re: Ante Post Betting I agree, I read the early threads about the national on here, regarding the trends etc and got matched Comply or Die at 18.0 on betfair a few week ago. I followed it in the market thinking if it came down to 10s I would lay it off for a free bet still at great odds. Then I thought for the sake of a tenner I would rather let it run and am glad I did. Im definitely impressed with the odds available ante post but will I be so impressed when I get stung a few times by non runners? So where the thread for the Irish National?
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Re: Are you racing this week? Going to Thirsk on Saturday for my birthday :gimme Hopefully there will be some good selections up early so I can check PL before I set off on the morning. :hope
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Re: The Return of Inside Info Just to add my thoughts. Some of the info on the other thread was really good, TBR's info seemed genuine and from a genuine inside source and quite succesful. However what spoiled the thread was some of the other contributions which seemed to be along the lines of "my mate dave knows abit about the horses and mentioned this horse". That was the kind of info which devalued the thread for me. I don't know the solution im affraid. basically I fully agree with cc75
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Re: Calculating Odds Thanks gingertipster thats an excellent webpage, really useful info and am sure will be of use to many other new-comers to here. I now need to cencentrate on working out whhat percent chance the horses have of winning from studying the form. I like the kindo of system based approch I got from http://www.cdsystems.uk.com/rating.htm but im not convinced about the entire method as it is throwing up some oddities. I will paper trail my findings as I tweek the system into what I consider acceptable ratings.
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Re: The spreadsheets - get your copy (Topspeed&RPR systems)
Does this refer to this these spreadsheets, or does it require a daily update, are they available without buying the racing post daily.Has your horse registered an adjusted Topspeed rating for today's race, which is no lower than 75% of the highest rating for the race? (Topspeed is prepared by Dave Edwards in the Racing Post). -
Re: Calculating Odds Windsor 21:10 Azreme I rated 50 = 22% probabliity = odds required 3.55 Corlough Mountain I rated 45 = 20% Probablitiy = odds required 4 Valley Observer I rated 25 = 11% probablity = odds required 8.09 Prince of Charm I rated 60 = 26% probablity = odds required 2.88 Divine White I rated 39 = 17% probablity = odds required 4.88 Salisbury Plain I rated 10 = 4% probablity = odds required 24 I opted to back the Prince of charm @4.2 exchange to place, as this is where I saw some value. Acording to my calculations all the other horses were over priced. The result however did not make good reading.
I think I may alter my rating system to give more emphasis to the Ground the horse has been succesful on before compared to todays going and also the type of course as I heard it going is the single most important factor. I need to look at how/why I got Prince of Charm rated far too high????????1 Azreme (6) 7/4 Fav 7 10 - 0 S Drowne P Howling 61 tracked leading pair, ridden to challenge 2f out, led over 1f out, driven and in command final 100 yards 2 3/4 Valley Observer (FR) (5) 4/1 3 9 - 9es1 A Kirby W R Swinburn 65 tracked leader, led 3f out, strongly pressed and headed over 1f out, stayed challenging, held final 100 yards 3 3 Corlough Mountain (2) 9/4 2Fav 3 9 - 9 William Buick(5) N A Callaghan 70 held up behind leaders in 4th, went 3rd 3f out, effort on outer and wandered under pressure over 2f out, one pace and no impression from over 1f out 4 2 1/2 Salisbury Plain (7) 16/1 6 8 - 11 Nicol Polli(5) N I M Rossiter 49 took keen hold, held up in 5th, ridden and one pace final 2f 5 9 Divine White (1) 11/1 4 9 - 5 R Hughes P Bowen 52 led to 3f out, soon weakened 6 17 Prince of Charm (USA) (3) 7/1 3 10 - 0p G Baker R A Teal 68 always last, struggling final 3f, tailed off Jools (4) Non Runner 53 -
Re: Calculating Odds I seem to be getting differences between the two methods, I must be doing one of them wrong? Trying to figure out which and why?
Runner Top Frac Bottom Frac Top Frac/Bottom Frac + 1 = Decimal % Chance=(1/(decimal+1)*100) Kangas way 1 15 8 2.88 25.81 2 9 4 3.25 23.53 3 5 1 6.5 13.33 4 5 1 6 14.29 5 12 1 13 7.14 6 25 1 26 3.7 Total 87.8 Gingertipsters way Top Frac Bottom Frac Top Frac + Bottom Frac %Chance =(Bottom Frac/TopFrac+Bottom Frac) 1 15 8 23 0.65 2 9 4 13 0.29 3 5 1 6 0.14 4 5 1 6 0.14 5 12 1 13 0.07 6 25 1 26 0.04 Total 1.33 -
Re: Calculating Odds
Ah thanks for that I did wonder why my figures diodnt add up. I will try again on Saturday so I can spend some time selecting which race and looking at the form for a bigger field.If you add up the %'s they should equal 100% The formula for converting odds to a % is 1/(odds + 1) * 100 (1) 1/(1.1 + 1) * 100 = 47.62% (2) 1/(1.25 + 1) * 100 = 44.44% (3) 1/(6 + 1) * 100 = 14.26% (4) 1/(50 + 1) * 100 = 1.96% In this case the % is over 100% because they were the best prices available from all bookmakers - if you were to calculate the prices from 1 bookmaker it WILL be below 100% and usually around 92-94% mark so they make a profit on whatever outcome. -
Re: Calculating Odds Ok had a little experiment tonight, chose the 21:00 at Hamilton only 4 runners and gave me time to prepare. First thing I got the current best price odds from attr. 11/10 Home Sweet Home 5/4 Just Lille 6/1 News of the Day 50/1 Craig Y Nos I figured the Bookies think the horses chances of winning are as follows. 90% 80% 16% 2% I then set about forming my own ratings using this approach http://www.cdsystems.uk.com/rating.htm I found the ratings to be Home Sweet Home 35 Just Lille 55 News of the Day 55 Craig Y Nos 15 This meant I figured the % chances of winning 24 % 37 % 37% 2% Equating to odds required of 4.3/1 2.6/1 2.6/1 50/1 By now it was approaching off time. According to my calculations Home Sweet Home was vastly underpriced and I managed to Lay it at 1.99 on the exchange. I rated Just Lille and News of the Day equally but with Just Lille slightly under priced but News of the Day offering Massive value now at 7/1 I chose that as the horse to back. Whilst my calculations agreed with the bookmaker that Craig Y Nos only had a 2% chance of winning and should be priced 50/1 I also had a couple of quid with betfair who offered 130/1 exchange which also represented value. So heres how it panned out 1. Just Lille chased leader, ridden to lead over 1f out, driven out 2. Home Sweet Home chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, chased winner inside final furlong, one pace 3. News of the Day led, ridden and headed over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong 4. Craig Y Nos always behind I was right in that Just Lille was very capable of winning and that was the case, unfortunately the value was not there. I was right to Lay Home sweet home due to the chance of it winning in my eyes being underpriced. Although I fancied News of the Day to go close and it offering value it proved not to be the case. The same with the chance taken on Craig Y Nos. However the Lay covered the money staked on News of the Day so only the small stakes lost on the outsider. Not sure where to go from here really. Should I focus on a particular type of race i.e track type, runners, distance, age, class. Then try to improve the rating method? I want to neaten the system up so its fully structured. Any advice welcome.
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Re: Calculating Odds I think this is where I struggle with the Value based approach to betting. I guess I could use this approach for pricing up races and if I find that the three top horses in a race have similar ratings thus chance of winning according to my system then when looking at the markets I would be wise to bet on the one offering the better value i.e the one being offered by the bookie at a far greater price than the other two. As long as I have confidence in my system then this should get me value. I find the term value quite subjective, if someone offers 1000 to one on a horse which I think should be 150/1 is that still value? People use the term value in a way which is taken to mean by getting value over the long term you should win more than you lose but im pretty sure if I kept backing 150/1 shots at 1000/1 I would still lose out over time.
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Re: Calculating Odds Thanks Kanga, thats a great help, basic mathematics I suppose. Thats looks pretty cool if im understanding it right. Lets see. In this example I have calculated ratings using a point based system for a 5 horse race. Horse 4 was rated 7pts which converts to a 6.09% chance of winning. If I wanted to bet on this horse but wanted to ensure value, if I was to look on betfair I should be looking to match 15.42 (decimal) or at someone like Hills 14/1 (rounded down for simplicity) or above.
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Hey, I read a few articles I found posted on here about Value and determining what bets are value based on working out your own odds. I also read an article about ratings and using a point allocation system for creating your own. Does anyone know of a structured way I could convert my ratings into odds for each of the runners in a race?
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Re: Free £1000 Competion from At the races
22/06/2007 RACE TITLE & SELECTION 14:30 Albany Stakes (Fillies' Group 2) 10 points each-way (20 points total) on Loch Jipp at 25/1 Bet on Loch Jipp for real at 
15:05 King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) 15 points to win on Boscobel at 7/1 Bet on Boscobel for real at 15:45 Coronation Stakes (Fillies' Group 1) 15 points to win on Arch Swing at 11/1 Bet on Arch Swing for real at 16:20 Wolferton Handicap (Listed) 10 points each-way (20 points total) on Classic Punch at 33/1 Bet on Classic Punch for real at 16:55 Queen's Vase (Group 3) 15 points to win on Serengeti at 9/2 Bet on Serengeti for real at 17:30 Buckingham Palace Stakes (Heritage Handicap) 15 points to win on Wise Dennis at 8/1 Bet on Wise Dennis for real at -
Re: Inside Info! There seems to be alot missing especially some of TBR's Arlow Ger for one last weekend and I recall a great double he came up with? [Edit]Sorry just read you been having power/saving troubles, maybe I jumped the gun, you havent finished[/Edit]
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Re: 5 horse race Slapdash can I just clear something up? Does it have to be an acutual five horse race, or does a six horse race with a non-runner become elligable? Silly question but just wondering how strict to apply rules and what to be looking out for on the race cards. A six horse race may suddenly become a goer minutes before the off, likewise I guess a five horse race may become void just before the off too. Problematic if bets have already been placed. How are these scenarios affecting back testing, are you only testing actual runners?
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Re: The Derby. Heard you can get Authorized to win by 3 lengths or more @ Skybet if that sounds a better value bet than just backing him to win at evens.
HALFTIME/FULLTIME
in Glory Hunters
Posted
Re: HALFTIME/FULLTIME Did you continue with this, I myself used to like the "flipper" as people call it. So I did some analysis (prem league, championship only) so far. The flipper doesnt seem profitable in terms of value to win ratios. Check out my analysis at halftimefulltime.com. Im still in the process of adding more ways to look at the data to pick potential bets. i.e so if you have any suggestions. I also need to add the lower leagues as I would be interested to see if the flipper occurs more as the standard of football goes down.