pupsaa
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Posts posted by pupsaa
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Re: ACN 2013 - Group B I think a good bet for today would be Draw/Ghana at bet365, as you will get the bet voided if it ends 0-0 and it just might, as Ghana don't need more than that to qualify. Also, Niger has the quality to defend properly for at least one half.
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Re: Red Devils 2012/13 Laying Correct Scores!
Can you please explain how this is done?I use betfair there is a way round betting less than £2 on betfair -
Re: Romania, Liga 1 2011/12 Those plain picks aren't even value bets, they're nothing. You can't apply a so called "numbers system" on this league. Because this is bookies paradise. Nothing here makes sense and common logic fails to apply these weeks. And I'm not only suggesting fixed games, but the overall quality of the league, where a lot of teams are actually the same value (a low one) and that's why we have unexpected results. Otelul - Vointa Otelul is a shadow of last year's team, when they won the league, they're fighting for nothing at the moment, and have trouble creating chances, while Vointa is looking better and better, an organized team that defends well and have the will to make something special out of their game. This one looks like a low scoring draw to me, but whoever wants to play the DNB, value lies on the guests, rather than the hosts. Sportul - Mioveni Sportul had a crazy start of the year, winning 3 in a row against big names, while Mioveni didn't impress and they're still rock bottom. Both teams suck at defending and badly need 3 points from this one. In that case, there must be goals here, over 2.5, 3.5 and so on Petrolul - Brasov The hosts managed just 1 point in the last 5 games and the odds are lowering on them. Yeah, they're at home and they gave away some good points last time when they lead 3-1 and lost 3-4 in the last minutes, but Brasov is a tricky team, which can defend well and unless they really want to lose, the guests can get at least a point out of this one. Feels like a 0-1, 1-1 kind of game. Pandurii - Steaua This is one tricky game, where we should stay away. Steaua has a new coach now, but not new to the club, as it's just a bunch of managers who are rotated when things go bad. Pandurii usually play more confident against bigger clubs. This can't be an away win as the odds suggest and bookies could've given 1.8 on Steaua and every mindless romanian punter would have jumped on it anyhow. Medias - Astra This one has draw (or rather X2) written all over it, Medias had a very difficult game just 3 days ago against Steaua, where they ran for 90 minutes and got a precious 0-0 and today (29.03) they have another tough clash against Dinamo in the first leg of the Cup semifinal and with a depleted squad, they will defend yet again. Playing in the league after another couple of days will be very tiresome for these players and it's hard to expect a home win against Astra in these conditions. Rapid - Dinamo This one's a local derby. Both teams have a cup game in the middle of the week, Rapid won 1-0 at Vaslui, while Dinamo has not yet played. Difficult one to predict, as these two are on a bad run recently, in the league and fear of losing again is big. The good news for Dinamo is that some important players are coming back from suspension and they might be playing now as the team in the first part of the season. Feels like a draw to me. Chiajna - Ceahlaul Home team had some great results lately, against the "big" teams, 1-0 versus Otelul and Rapid and a surprise 4-3 away at Petrolul after they were down 3-1 in the 80th minute. Ceahlaul are number one fixers in this league, but since the reverse fixture was 0-0, this is not the case. Our logic should be, if Chiajna had so good results at home agains the better teams, surely they can beat Ceahlaul, but maybe this is exactly what the bookies want us to think, so DNB on the visitors should be the bet here. U Cluj - Targu Mures U Cluj find it hard to create chances against teams like Targu Mures, like last round when they managed only a 0-0 against Chiajna, or the last home game, when only because of a great bicycle kick, they managed to take the lead, later in the second half. They have nothing to fight for in the games remaining, as the European hopes are long forgotten, while the visitors badly need points to get out of the relegation area. This game is more about will and I bet Targu Mures has it. X2 FC Vaslui - CFR Cluj After lots of critics coming from Vaslui's owner against CFR's games, which he thinks are suspicious, they finally meet. CFR Cluj, the leaders of the league will really want to prove they are clean and play their simple creative game, nothing special, but very efficient. Vaslui lacks creativity against the big sides and I don't understand why they are slightly favorites in this game full of tension. I think a better approach to this game would be betting on a red card to be shown, that feels like value to me.
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Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results Where do you get your stats from? These are the last meetings: [TABLE=class: head_to_head, width: 550]
[TR=class: odd highlight] [TD=align: center]05.11.11[/TD] [TD=class: flag, align: left]SUP[/TD] [TD=class: name, align: left]Panionios[/TD] [TD=class: name, align: left]OFI Crete[/TD] [TD=class: last, align: center]1 : 3 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: even highlight, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]18.01.09[/TD] [TD=class: flag, align: left]SUP[/TD] [TD=class: name, align: left]OFI Crete[/TD] [TD=class: name, align: left]Panionios[/TD] [TD=class: last, align: center]2 : 0 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd highlight] [TD=align: center]21.09.08[/TD] [TD=class: flag, align: left]SUP[/TD] [TD=class: name, align: left]Panionios[/TD] [TD=class: name, align: left]OFI Crete[/TD] [TD=class: last, align: center]1 : 1 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: even highlight, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]13.04.08[/TD] [TD=class: flag, align: left]SUP[/TD] [TD=class: name, align: left]OFI Crete[/TD] [TD=class: name, align: left]Panionios[/TD] [TD=class: last, align: center]1 : 2 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd highlight] [TD=align: center]30.12.07[/TD] [TD=class: flag, align: left]SUP[/TD] [TD=class: name, align: left]Panionios[/TD] [TD=class: name, align: left]OFI Crete[/TD] [TD=class: last, align: center]1 : 3 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: even highlight, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]29.04.07[/TD] [TD=class: flag, align: left]SUP[/TD] [TD=class: name, align: left]OFI Crete[/TD] [TD=class: name, align: left]Panionios[/TD] [TD=class: last, align: center]3 : 1 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd highlight] [TD=align: center]10.12.06[/TD] [TD=class: flag, align: left]SUP[/TD] [TD=class: name, align: left]Panionios[/TD] [TD=class: name, align: left]OFI Crete[/TD] [TD=class: last, align: center]1 : 0 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: even highlight, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]26.03.06[/TD] [TD=class: flag, align: left]SUP[/TD] [TD=class: name, align: left]OFI Crete[/TD] [TD=class: name, align: left]Panionios[/TD] [TD=class: last, align: center]1 : 1 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd highlight] [TD=align: center]20.11.05[/TD] [TD=class: flag, align: left]SUP[/TD] [TD=class: name, align: left]Panionios[/TD] [TD=class: name, align: left]OFI Crete[/TD] [TD=class: last, align: center]1 : 1 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: even highlight, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]20.02.05[/TD] [TD=class: flag, align: left]SUP[/TD] [TD=class: name, align: left]Panionios[/TD] [TD=class: name, align: left]OFI Crete[/TD] [TD=class: last, align: center]2 : 1 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd highlight] [TD=align: center]16.10.04[/TD] [TD=class: flag, align: left]SUP[/TD] [TD=class: name, align: left]OFI Crete[/TD] [TD=class: name, align: left]Panionios[/TD] [TD=class: last, align: center]2 : 0 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: even highlight, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]25.01.04[/TD] [TD=class: flag, align: left]SUP[/TD] [TD=class: name, align: left]OFI Crete[/TD] [TD=class: name, align: left]Panionios[/TD] [TD=class: last, align: center]1 : 1 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd highlight] [TD=align: center]14.09.03[/TD] [TD=class: flag, align: left]SUP[/TD] [TD=class: name, align: left]Panionios[/TD] [TD=class: name, align: left]OFI Crete[/TD] [TD=class: last, align: center]1 : 1[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] -
Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS
It's explained in the 1st post: The difference here is that I will be taking the games which come out in the 45-55% range. This basically means that while it doesnt qualify for an 'over or under', the percentage indicates that it is very close to 2.5 exactly (you know what I mean) - SO, rather than waste these 'picks', im going to use them to pick out games for betting on the '2 or 3 goals' market.If I may ask, this probability column shows % for 2-3 outcome, right? If Yes, then U have some matches with no value. If No pls explain. Thanks -
Re: Is this a good champions League combo? First of all, it's Bayern, not Byern Secondly, why are you so excited about these particular games? It's more than 1 month ahead. Who cares if it's Champions League Round of 16? It should be only a football game from the punter's point of view and they shouldn't be more important than other games. Yes, Bayern can beat Basel 3,4-0 at home, but that what we thought when they played away at Man United :wall All I'm saying is don't bet a huge amount of money on this just because the odds are low :ok
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Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan
Decent end to the year for me' date=' seemed to be focused on this match from the start of the week. Had £50 on 0-2 from 310 to 380 kept going back each day for a little more, also had £20 on blackburn@30 for win. Layed off a good bit just before h/T from 50 to 29, still had 4 grand on 0-2 going into second half. Then the radio on my laptop went off just at the start of second half, so was pussying about trying to get this back on and forgot to put in lower odds for the rest off the bet. Got radio back on just when Man Utd scored to make it 1-2, I was fcuking raging that with pussying about with radio missed the chance of unloading most of the 4 grand. When blackburn went 2-3 up I refused to lay off my win bet was still raging. 3 mins to go and knowing Man Utd are one of the luckiest teams for getting last second goals still refused which was insane, but was still fuming about the fcuking radio going off just after h/t. Very silly, but got a break a break with the finishing score.[/quote'] Oh come on, a radio? Are you from the past? :P Why not watch a video stream of the game :cigar -
Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan
Manchester Utd 2 - 3 Blackburn FT I hope you learned your lesson ;)why do punters on here bet on mainly over 2.00 ' date=' rather bets like man u to win at 1.14 ,[b'] its a safe bet with 14% profit .. why not build slow and steady rather than go for high odds with quite a gamble ?:rollin -
Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan
It's a safe bet from your point of view and it's not a profit until you actually win it. Maybe I see better value in a 2.0 bet rather than Man United winning at home against a struggling Blackburn. And what's the point in betting on a 1.14 odds? If you make 10 bets like this and one of them fails, you are back where you started. So unless you put 10 bets like this in a combo, for a 3.7 total odds, I see no value in them and it's still gambling to mewhy do punters on here bet on mainly over 2.00 ' date=' rather bets like man u to win at 1.14 , its a [b']safe bet with 14% profit .. why not build slow and steady rather than go for high odds with quite a gamble ?:rollin -
Re: Romania Liga 1 2011/12 I was looking at the odds for this game and couldn't really find anything of value, but thanks for opening my eyes with this bet, seems very likely to happen :ok It might end up in something like 4-0, but also 1-0 halftime, 2-0 fulltime will not bother CFR, so this seems much safer than -2 AH
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Re: Romania Liga 1 2011/12 Odds strangely rising on Gaz Metan Medias. I really think they can achieve something here, Pandurii is playing great lately, but that's above they're level and they should start failing sooner or later, plus they're best central defender is out for this game. Gaz Metan DNB looks juicy, also the odds for over :cigar
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Re: Romania Liga 1 2011/12
It's not an online bookie, just shopsI looked at their site but couldn't find a sign up button. Do they only accept people from Romania ? -
Re: Romania Liga 1 2011/12 Should be a fair amount of goals in tonight's "derby". Vaslui will be tired after Europa League away game at Lazio and it's hard to belive that they will come here to defend against a CFR team that finds it very easy to score goals lately. So Vaslui's only tactic for this game should be attack from the first whistle, in which case, over should be a piece of cake. I'd give this theory a 7/10 chance :cigar
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Re: Good room for Head Hunter tournies?
This one looks good, thanks :)Virgin have lots too :ok -
Re: Good room for Head Hunter tournies?
Pretty sure Sky Poker run a few of these Bounty Hunter' date=' they have a big un on a Thursday night, fairly fast structure.[/quote'] Sky Poker isn't good for me, as they closed services for many countries lately, including mine. -
Can you recommend me a poker room with many head hunter tournaments (including sng) ?
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Hello PL, I'm an old watcher, less poster and a bad poker player. Hopefully I can change something, so now I want to start new, with something that looks easier, double-up SNGs. What do you think about these? Should I play the 6-table or 10-table ones? Normal or turbo? :unsure From my poor experience I think that non-turbo shorthanded would do the trick, as playing very tight and more time until the large blinds come means more chances to keep my stack close to the average stack and let others take the risk.
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Re: No draws in Scandinavia................please Interesting system :ok Can you also post the stats till now? Like how many wins/losses per total.
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Re: Tennis - 18-24 April Hello tennis experts :D Any reason why the handicap on Na Li is so low, against 156th Lisicki? :unsure
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Re: Tennis - 11-17 April
And why wouldn't it work for 6-4, 6-4? 20 > 19.5, no? :unsurePhilipp Kohlschreiber +5 AH vs Roger Federer. 1.79 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Like to oppose Federer in tournaments like this. He never plays his best tennis in non Grand Slam events and don't expect him to have good performance in his first match here this year. Kohly has already played one match, had a tough one against Golubev, but managed to win and that's the most important thing. He was in 1/4 finals here last year so knows the place and obviously has had some decent results. Although Federer leads their H2H 5-0 they have never played on clay and I think 5 games is too big for Swiss player to cover. Also like the looks of overs @ 19.5 games but this would not work if it finishes 6-4, 6-4 in favor of Federer, in this case handicap looks good and don't think Federer winning by better margin than 6-3, 6-4 which would mean push. -
Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 I'm not posting much, but I've just realized that these days, at the post AO tournies, big favorites are having trouble focusing, or they simply don't care if they win in 2 sets or in 3, or 7-6, 7-6. What I want to say, it would have been very profitable to back the handicap on the underdog.
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Re: Australia A-League 2010/2011 Season Perth has been much better in the last two games, the 4-2 win against Adelaide, followed by the 0-0 at Gold Coast. But given they play away at leaders Brisbane, I guess they will try to hold the draw as much as possible. The result really depends on when the first goal is scored. The odds on home team are not worth taking. This is more of a NO BET. I think best is to wait for live action. And if we have a fast goal, then we can back over 3.5 or 4.5 goals low stakes. GL all.
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Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 21st October
"Liverpool is crap", that's what bookies want to hear. Everyone will have Napoli, Napoli 1X and Napoli DNB in their combos and it's a 50/50 game actually. Why is Napoli so great? Maybe it's a "Name from the past" overreaction too. They were outplayed by Steaua two weeks ago in the first half. Now come on, Steaua? Makes me laugh. DRAW sounds very well here, bookies' best choice ;)I don't understand any sort of logic with people betting on Liverpool. This whole season has been a fraud, it seems the only excuse to wager on Liverpool is because "oh that is value because they are Liverpool" Lets just come to terms...Liverpool are terrible. It's one thing when you see Chelsea being priced at 4ish but it's another when Liverpool are. Time and time again people will continuously bet on Liverpool based on their name and time and time again Liverpool fails to deliver. At this current stage, Napoli is a far better playing team than Pool. What does Liverpool want more, EPL status or Europa glory? For pete sakes they got to start figuring out what they want to do in the EPL. If people constantly want to take a dab on wagering on Liverpool just for the sake of "well sooner or later they'll win" so be it, but that is not logical at all to chase. Provide some strong valid reasons why Pool can actually muster anything out of this match. The value WAS on Napoli -0.25 when it first opened but now you have increased your risk with -0.5. Playing Liverpool ML is not value at all, if you want you can wait to take a stab at Pool +0.5 if the odds are decent enough but other than that so far what I'm seeing is an overreaction to a "Name" rather than to a team playing well. -
Re: Football Pontoon for new season starts 13th Aug I want to play also! My number: 99 Cheers!
Paris Saint-Germain v Anderlecht > Tuesday November 5th
in Champions League Predictions
Posted
Re: Paris Saint-Germain v Anderlecht > Tuesday November 5th PSG are weakened upfront, the motivation can't be very high after trashing Anderlecht in the away game, with their group position assuring them (almost) progress to the next round. The belgium team have nothing to lose and they also need at least a point here to hope to continue in some competition. It's Champions League and I'm not entirely sure this competition is a fully honest one, so why not, for the value, Anderlecht win @ 26 and CS 0-0 @ 21