ray2520
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Posts posted by ray2520
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If the price for over 2.5 is, say 2.0, then that would imply that the probability of over 2.5 is 1/2. So the probability of under 2.5 is also 1/2. The number of goals can be modelled by a Poisson distribution, and if you use that, since we know that P(X <= 2) is 0.5, we can find the expected number of goals that is implied by the price of over 2.5 being 2.0.
Here's a few values I've worked out in the past... Not sure if this will format well
Price of under 2.5 Expected number of goals in match
1.5 2.04
2.0 2.67
2.5 3.11
3.0 3.43
This doesn't separate the teams out however. I will say though that when I used this method to work out the prob of say under 1.5 or under 3.5 it was extremely accurate. I think this is how people do it on the exchanges.
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Moderator please delete this thread (except perhaps fpr this message) and my abject apologies. I cannot believe it. I have just visited the unibet site and clicked on "my racing bets" and my missing bets are all there!
My apologies to unibet as well. I never knew there was a separate folder for Racing bets. Everything is fine. My bets have been settled perfectly correctly.
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Removed
Ladbrokes "Exchange".
in Bookie Chat
Posted
Its not really an exchange in the sense of betfair or betdaq or smarkets because although you can back or lay like in a true exchange, you have to take the prices that are given and you can't make an offer. I wondered where the offered prices were coming from, but it appears that they are simply the prices offered on betdaq. Bit of a disappointment when I saw the word "Exchange" on their site I thought it would be something good.