[How's best to rate handicap races?]

2 hours ago, Snoopdog said:

While we're on this subject, here's a related question for you experts.

The RPR ratings on the day of a race are clearly adjusted for jockey weight, etc.

Do any of you know the formulae used to arrive at an RPR for raceday?

Hi Snoopdog

Are you talking about the RPR figure against every runner on the racecard?.

E.G. Shesoon Sonny,3.30 Southwell RPR 132

The figure is formed from its best RPR figure from its last six runs, in this case 119 from its run 13.12.2019 at Chelt.

Today it carries 11.1

Each NH runner is made up to 12 stone.

13lbs added to 11.1 = 12 stone

13 points added to 119 =132

For the flat each runner is added to 10 stone.

You may see its best rating is 119 but that was achieved on g/s whereas its best on soft is 115. Would the 13 added to 115 be more realistic b/cos of the going?.

Its for you to ponder & decide.

[How's best to rate handicap races?]

Hi all

Serial lurker who has finally decided to put his head above the parapet.?

I now only bet in hcps and by that I mean hcps whereby all the runners have won off a hcp mark. There's plenty of races where this happens so rather than explain the theory I thought I'd run through a live race to explain what I mean.

Racing tomorrow is not too exciting, small fields, non too sexy courses either but one race has caught my eye. the 2.30 Southwell. 5 Runner chase handicap.

4 runners are attempting to win from a hcp mark higher than what they've won off before.

Twotwothree OR 119 last win 110 - won cl4 hcps (both over 2m and then well btn in subsequent cl4 off 122. Raced in a cl2 lto, well btn but as a consequence OR dropped 3lbs (this I feel is a common ploy to get an OR lowered, run in higher class if connections think the horse is no longer handicapped to win)

Little Light OR117 last win 112 - won cl4 hcp (just) off 112, btn off 118 last wice and only dropped 1lb

Railroad Junkie OR 111 last win 109 - last won 2018 cl4 hcp. Taken a while for hcp mark to drop but capable if fit enough off a 95 day break, That break however does put me off.Trainers record after such a layoff doesn't inspire confidence.

Chozen OR117 last 116 - only 1lb over it's last winning mark and coming back from a 79 day layoff. That's not a concern when you consider it's won before off 142 & 278 days off

1 runner is trying to win off a hcp mark 2lbs lower than it's won off before.

Truckers Highway OR114 last win 116 - last won a cl4 hcp over 2m off 116, 4 subsequent runs, one in a cl3 off 121 and then 3 more over 20f. Rating now dropped to beneath last winning mark and back to 2m.

After going through all the runners I think Truckers Highway and Chozen are the ones I'd lean towards.

Truckers Highway is rank outsider of 5 available at 10/1 and Chozen second outsider at 6/1 maybe 11/2.

Small field stabs at those prices for these two.?

 

** Truckers Highway N/R

Chozen came to challenge 2nd last flight and plowed through it. 

We live to fight another day.