Damp Squib
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Posts posted by Damp Squib
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Re: "80' minute favourite" System The only problem I foresee is the price your laying at. That market tends to be pretty competitive resulting in the lays being over-priced. Maybe you can take note of the price layed and later compare it to the realistic odds for that game, giving you some sort of idea what line your walking. ;)
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Re: Underdog Strategy... Your Opinions Please The point being missed here is you are betting dogs for no good reason, which will result in major losses over time. Short term you may win but thats no different to playing a slot machine, long term you need a way of recognising the value in those Dogs.:ok
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Re: Soccer Over / Under Analysis spreadsheet
What figures do you use for the Value analysis section, it would make a big difference to the outcome.:okI am attaching the over / under analysis excel spreadsheet which I have collected from several other people system. Is a kind of easy doing your analysis base on their system. -
Re: Golf 2 balls System Its probably a bit late in the season to get a good run at things and invariably the bookmakers have a good idea of the Form. Just a few points you may wish to think about, a few years ago a Bookmaker used to go 16/1 the Field for a Major and over the 4 Days the H'cap ranged from 0 to 8 shots, meaning in any given round, the best Golfer was only 2 shots better in their opinion. The correct odds with no Book margin for Two equal players is 5/4 each player and 8/1 they Draw so ignoring the draw is asking for trouble, effectively this is where the Books clean up. It always pays to get the draw on your side if you can get superior odds, that way you will be playing the Books at their own Game. :ok
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Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Excellent Job Mr Intensity, seeing as you have given yourself a ceiling for betting, I was wondering if you considered a stop at certain odds-on shots. If you were to hit a bad run it would be those odds-on shots that would be killing.:sad
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I have been a lurker here for quiet a while and have gone from hysterical laughter at some of the Systems given to Genuine belief that the Poster is onto something. The common demoninator in these Posts seems to be an urge to simplify things when a little more hard work might reap some reward. A noticable thread in all these is an intent to beat the Bookmaker without giving them any respect, you wouldnt play somebody for Money at Pool down the Pub without judging his strengths. Bookmakers Oddmakers are well paid professionals who know their Business inside out, so instead of fighting them, incorporate their knowledge into your thinking. Yes you may say they are well out on a price but how often, whenever your price is miles out you need to double check everything. Oddsmakers use a Standard set of rules to get a price on an Event which has stood the test of time, they then individually tweak them with their own preferences and knowledge. So us as Punters need to do the same, use their prices to save us most of the hard work and then put our edge to it. An edge can be found in many Theories and back-testing can be a dagger to the Heart but knowing where the Oddsmakers take notice and reading between the lines is the way to go. For instance everyone, including Bookmakers take notice of the Myraid of Stats on offer nowadays and all act accordingly, so it is best to look deep for a chink in them to take advantage. To give you some idea of the profits, I have a Soccer system that after a few years of tweaking takes me 2 Hours a week to do and gives me a profit of £2000-£4000 a Year, although nice, hardly ground breaking stuff. So to finish, dont expect utopia or Easy Street but taking in what the Books are telling you, some hard Work and getting the best Price on your Bet, you can have an enjoyable hobby, but always remember, make sure the hours spent are hours of enjoyment.:ok
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Re: Losing Faith....
The reason you are doing well on Sports is its a smaller margin of error but lose you will. If it was that easy to just follow a system then there would be no Bookmakers and there's not a system invented that just churns out winners. The Systems that do actually produce a profit over a long term usually require a great deal of Work and Time and the Profit Margin not as big as People think, in Fact thats where the Work comes in, constantly maintaining that margin. :okAm on a massive losing run. Does anyone have a system (perhaps of their own/on this forum) which is pretty reliable. I just want something which is slightly more concrete than what i've got at the moment. I'm doing well with sports betting but poorly with horses. -
Re: 2YR OLDS 2nd Fav Firm Going System. The Fly in the Ointment here is the Going. Its very rare nowadays for CoC's not to get the watering Can out without giving across the extent, all of a sudden Firm Going the next Day in the Results becomes Good to Firm.:unsure To be sure, the going is the only viable Critera given, Distance, Price etc are all wide enough to allow nearly all 2nd Favs. :ok
(Potentially) Profitable (Premiership) Lay System
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: (Potentially) Profitable (Premiership) Lay System Rippy, you need to take on board that the prices you have worked on had a normal Bookmakers % where on Betfair they will bet 101% and the underdog will nearly always trade the higher % of that, you also need to factor in the Comm of the Winners. Good Luck.