Jump to content
Download the PL Forum App!
** ELO Ratings are now back **
Check Out Our Euro 2024 Forum!

Gilward Kukel

New Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    76

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Gilward Kukel

    Simple Systems

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Bets Bets for System 1 Arsenal - Newcastle United: 1 @ 1.60 (Jokerbets) Southampton FC - Middlesbrough: 1 @ 1.85 (Unibet) Manchester City - Tottenham Hotspur: 1 @ 1.85 (Interwetten) Bet for System 3 1860 Munich TSV - VfB Stuttgart: 1 @ 2.70 (Expekt)

    Simple Systems

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Bets Bets for System 2 Ajaccio - Stade Rennes: 1 @ 2.30 (Admiral); 1-0 :) En Avant Guingamp - Paris Saint Germain: 1 @ 2.70 (Worldbet); 0-2 :( Toulouse FC - Metz FC: 1 @ 2.20 (Bets4all); 1-0 :) Bets for System 3 Freiburg SC - Schalke 04: 1 @ 2.60 (Expekt); 2-1 :) 1.FC Cologne - Vfl Wolfsburg: 1 @ 2.60 (SportsTAB); 2-3 :( System 2: 3 bets 2 won +1.50 Profit +50% Yield System 3: 3 bets 1 won -0.40 Profit -13.33% Yield

    Simple Systems

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Bets Bets for System 2 Ajaccio - Stade Rennes: 1 @ 2.30 (Admiral) En Avant Guingamp - Paris Saint Germain: 1 @ 2.70 (Worldbet) Toulouse FC - Metz FC: 1 @ 2.20 (Bets4all) Bets for System 3 Freiburg SC - Schalke 04: 1 @ 2.60 (Expekt) 1.FC Cologne - Vfl Wolfsburg: 1 @ 2.60 (SportsTAB)

    Simple Systems

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: simple systems Yet another system: System 3 Rule: Bet on home win if the following conditions are true: -) It is a game in the German Bundesliga 1. -) The home team has played at least 1 game. -) The home team did not win the last game. -) The average odds for the home win are >=2.3 and 

     

Season     Bets Strike rate Yield

2000-2001   33    54,55%    35,18%

2001-2002   29    44,83%    11,69%

2002-2003   46    52,17%    24,87%

  Total    108    50,93%    24,48%

    Simple Systems

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: simple systems Here's another system: System 2 Rule: Bet on home win if the following conditions are true: -) It is a game in the French Division 1. -) The home team has played at least 6 games. -) The home team has won at most 2 of the last 6 games. -) The average odds for the home win are >2 and 

     

Season    Bets Strike rate  Yield

2000-2001  65    50,77%     15,15%&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 

2001-2002  71    53,52%     20,37%&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 

2002-2003  77    54,55%     24,73%&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 

  Total   213    53,05%     20,35%

    Simple Systems

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: simple systems

    Nice idea Gilward,
    Thank you.
    have you tried it on other leagues?
    The results for other leagues are not so good. For instance: Germany 1: 117 bets; Strike rate 58,12%; Yield -1,91% France 1: 167 bets; Strike rate 48,50%; Yield -16,50% Italy 1: 63 bets; Strike rate 50,79%; Yield -12,57% Spain 1: 136 bets; Strike rate 54,41%; Yield -6,29% The results for the other English leagues are bad as well. A bit better: Scotland Premier League: 57 bets; Strike rate 59,65%; Yield 5,89%
    what kind of fall-off is there if the team has won less than 3 of the last 6
    A massive one! 177 bets; Strike rate 50,85%; Yield -10,46%
    or the odds are slightly outside this range?
    odds =2 and

    Simple Systems

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Maybe I will try here some simple systems, but don't expect too much from them. ;) Here's the first one: System 1 Rule: Bet on home win if the following conditions are true: -) It is a game in the English Premier League. -) The home team has played at least 6 games. -) The home team has won at least 3 of the last 6 games. -) The average odds for the home win are >1.5 and <2. Backtesting (using average odds): 

     

Season    Bets  Strike rate  Yield

2000-2001  56     66,07%     13,09%

2001-2002  35     74,29%     28,03%

2002-2003  51     72,55%     22,78%

  Total   142     70,42%     20,25%

    BACK TESTING DATA - OPINIONS NEEDED

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: BACK TESTING DATA - OPINIONS NEEDED Sorry, it is too difficult for me to explain this. English is a foreign language to me. I wrote Visual Basic code to do the calculations. In the code, I use DAO-Recordsets. You should also know how to use SQL. I can't explain this all in detail. You'll have to look it up. But I can produce the data for you. That's easy. :) Do you want the same calculations that I made for smudge, but for France and Spain? Season 02_03 or 01_02? Or both? Gilward

    BACK TESTING DATA - OPINIONS NEEDED

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: BACK TESTING DATA - OPINIONS NEEDED Here are the data. Is that what you want? I hope it is correct. Stats as CSV file Stats as Excel file Stats as Access file Explanation of the columns: GH-GA Result of the match H... Home team, all games H8... Home team, last 8 games HH... Home team, all home games HH5... Home team, last 5 home games HA... Home team, all away games HA5... Home team, last 5 away games A... Away team, all games A8... Away team, last 8 games AH... Away team, all home games AH5... Away team, last 5 home games AA... Away team, all away games AA5... Away team, last 5 away games The data next to a match were valid before the match was played.

    BACK TESTING DATA - OPINIONS NEEDED

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: BACK TESTING DATA - OPINIONS NEEDED My database is not online. (I do not know how to do that, and it would probably be too expensive for me.) So what I can do for you is: Tell me which leagues and seasons you want the data for. I will then calculate your data (yes, for every single game!) and put the data into a table in my database. If you have MS Access, I can give you that table directly. I can also put the data into one or more textfiles (data separated by ";") and give them to you. The table has one row for each game. I suggest the following columns: country division season date home away GH GA HTPPG HTGFA HTGAA H8PPG H8GFA H8GAA HHTPPG HHTGFA HHTGAA HH5PPG HH5GFA HH5GAA ATPPG ATGFA ATGAA A8PPG A8GFA A8GAA AATPPG AATGFA AATGAA AA5PPG AA5GFA AA5GAA Explanation: country: an abbreviation for the country, e.g. "eng" for England division: a number; "0" means highest division, "1" means second-highest division... season: e.g. "02_03" date: date of the match home: home team in the match away: away team in the match GH: goals for the home team in this match GA: goals for the away team in this match The other columns contain the calculated data. They represent the status BEFORE the match was played. HTPPG means: PPG for all previous games of the home team H8PPG means: PPG for the last 8 games of the home team HHTPPG means: PPG for all previous home games of the home team HH5PPG means: PPG for the last 5 home games of the home team ATPPG means: PPG for all previous games of the away team A8PPG means: PPG for the last 8 games of the away team AATPPG means: PPG for all previous away games of the away team AA5PPG means: PPG for the last 5 away games of the away team The rest of the columns is for GFA and GAA instead of PPG. Is that fine? So, choose your leagues and seasons. Gilward Greetings from Austria We have just won against Scotland, this mighty nation! ;)

    Some statistics about odds . . .

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Some statistics . . . Statistics updated. Now 7012 games. Newest date: January 1, 2003 Here you can see the statistics for every single league: 

       

 ********** Leagues **********



| League    | Games | 1_Share  | X_Share  | 2_Share  | 1_Profit | X_Profit | 2_Profit |

| AR        |   267 |   42,70% |   28,09% |   29,21% |  -19,35% |   -6,82% |  -10,11% |

| AT 1      |   145 |   45,52% |   26,21% |   28,28% |  -10,85% |  -12,72% |   -4,69% |

| AT 2      |   140 |   56,43% |   17,14% |   26,43% |    8,36% |  -45,00% |  -10,86% |

| BE 1      |   228 |   53,07% |   16,23% |   30,70% |   -2,43% |  -43,71% |   -8,11% |

| BE 2      |   142 |   44,37% |   23,94% |   31,69% |   -9,20% |  -21,58% |    2,78% |

| BR        |   358 |   53,63% |   23,46% |   22,91% |   -1,67% |  -22,36% |  -16,13% |

| CH A      |   153 |   51,63% |   23,53% |   24,84% |   -3,02% |  -22,29% |  -22,19% |

| CH B      |   139 |   42,45% |   27,34% |   30,22% |  -18,24% |  -11,40% |   -4,39% |

| CZ        |   180 |   56,11% |   26,11% |   17,78% |    4,20% |  -13,92% |  -43,07% |

| DE 1      |   252 |   47,22% |   24,60% |   28,17% |   -9,38% |  -16,25% |   -5,69% |

| DE 2      |   255 |   42,75% |   28,63% |   28,63% |  -20,84% |   -6,41% |   -6,22% |

| DE North  |   234 |   39,74% |   26,07% |   34,19% |  -24,00% |  -17,37% |    5,34% |

| DE South  |   265 |   48,68% |   28,68% |   22,64% |   -9,23% |   -9,79% |  -29,26% |

| DK 1      |   134 |   50,00% |   26,12% |   23,88% |    3,34% |  -13,47% |  -20,00% |

| DK 2      |   140 |   37,86% |   25,71% |   36,43% |  -27,39% |   -3,93% |    2,50% |

| Eng 1     |   502 |   43,03% |   26,29% |   30,68% |  -14,19% |  -13,42% |   -1,28% |

| Eng 2     |   503 |   42,54% |   26,84% |   30,62% |  -15,94% |  -11,69% |   -5,72% |

| Eng 3     |   496 |   41,53% |   31,05% |   27,42% |  -16,22% |    1,65% |  -11,80% |

| Eng Con   |   423 |   44,92% |   23,40% |   31,68% |  -12,00% |  -22,75% |    0,05% |

| Eng PL    |   330 |   49,39% |   24,85% |   25,76% |   -1,82% |  -18,09% |  -22,35% |

| ES 1      |   289 |   48,10% |   26,64% |   25,26% |   -5,48% |  -12,19% |  -15,55% |

| ES 2      |   335 |   37,91% |   38,81% |   23,28% |  -21,04% |   13,69% |  -22,13% |

| FI        |    55 |   43,64% |   23,64% |   32,73% |  -12,82% |  -20,09% |   -5,73% |

| FR 1      |   328 |   48,48% |   28,35% |   23,17% |   -5,98% |  -10,82% |  -17,36% |

| FR 2      |   323 |   48,30% |   32,82% |   18,89% |   -6,36% |   -2,49% |  -30,82% |

| GR        |   199 |   45,73% |   25,13% |   29,15% |  -21,45% |  -12,49% |  -13,89% |

| HR        |    98 |   47,96% |   23,47% |   28,57% |  -15,03% |  -22,60% |  -21,28% |

| HU        |   116 |   48,28% |   25,00% |   26,72% |  -14,93% |  -18,36% |  -17,20% |

| IE        |    85 |   38,82% |   29,41% |   31,76% |  -21,24% |   -1,06% |  -10,00% |

| IS        |    18 |   38,89% |   33,33% |   27,78% |  -25,56% |   12,50% |  -36,94% |

| IT A      |   250 |   47,60% |   29,20% |   23,20% |   -5,88% |   -7,32% |  -28,34% |

| IT B      |   286 |   48,95% |   35,31% |   15,73% |   -3,18% |   -3,92% |  -36,28% |

| IT C1A    |   250 |   40,40% |   34,40% |   25,20% |  -20,30% |   -8,52% |    2,58% |

| IT C1B    |   248 |   45,56% |   31,85% |   22,58% |  -12,42% |  -13,85% |  -11,77% |

| MX        |   153 |   41,83% |   30,72% |   27,45% |  -18,73% |    1,54% |   -5,07% |

| NL 1      |   243 |   47,74% |   24,69% |   27,57% |  -13,03% |  -16,65% |  -24,05% |

| NL 2      |   104 |   43,27% |   18,27% |   38,46% |  -18,37% |  -36,30% |   26,49% |

| NO 1      |    97 |   43,30% |   24,74% |   31,96% |  -19,54% |  -10,52% |  -11,96% |

| NO 2      |   135 |   48,15% |   14,07% |   37,78% |  -14,45% |  -42,31% |   -4,85% |

| PL        |   106 |   50,94% |   24,53% |   24,53% |   -7,34% |  -18,21% |  -27,97% |

| PT        |   241 |   48,55% |   27,39% |   24,07% |   -7,90% |   -7,30% |  -28,34% |

| RU        |    89 |   40,45% |   22,47% |   37,08% |  -32,02% |  -28,31% |   21,69% |

| Sco 1     |   153 |   41,18% |   22,88% |   35,95% |  -21,52% |  -20,20% |   -7,42% |

| Sco 2     |   134 |   39,55% |   26,12% |   34,33% |  -15,34% |   -9,22% |    2,95% |

| Sco 3     |   134 |   32,09% |   31,34% |   36,57% |  -40,46% |   11,34% |  -12,61% |

| Sco PL    |   193 |   45,60% |   23,32% |   31,09% |  -13,02% |  -21,22% |  -22,38% |

| SE 1      |   141 |   43,26% |   24,82% |   31,91% |   -9,92% |  -18,26% |    1,21% |

| SE 2      |   144 |   46,53% |   25,00% |   28,47% |   -6,22% |  -12,74% |  -11,35% |

| SG        |    29 |   48,28% |    6,90% |   44,83% |    4,21% |  -72,07% |   13,10% |

| SK        |   113 |   61,95% |   18,58% |   19,47% |   18,58% |  -41,33% |  -30,40% |

| TR 1      |   183 |   48,63% |   24,59% |   26,78% |  -10,48% |  -17,57% |  -19,26% |

| TR 2      |   209 |   54,55% |   24,40% |   21,05% |   -1,20% |  -16,00% |  -37,08% |

| UA        |    35 |   37,14% |   20,00% |   42,86% |  -31,14% |  -33,14% |    3,43% |

×
×
  • Create New...