AFL Finals: Week 2

[jeremda01]

Hi Everyone, Hope the first week went well for everyone, I didn't place any bets last week because i was too uncertain to place any bets (cowardly decision I know). But here's the line up for the 2nd week: Friday September 10 Second semi-final, Geelong Cats v Fremantle at the MCG, 7.45pm AEST Saturday September 11 First semi-final, Western Bulldogs v Sydney Swans at the MCG, 7.20pm AEST Cats vs Freo: In my opinion I reckon the Cats are going to beat the Dockers despite their loss last week. Freo are playing away so there won't be as bigger influence on their match as last week. However, with last weeks win in the fresh in their minds, I feel that Freo are capable of an upset here. After the Cats lost St. Kilda's odds for premiers dropped to 2.98 on Betfair. (Perhaps that happy punter who placed 500K on St. Kilda for the flag will get a huge pay out after all). Bulldogs vs Swans: I feel that Sydney are marginally going to take this one as they Swans have just had win, and the Bulldogs have too many injuries floating around the club. Also the Bulldogs got slaughtered by the Pies last week so I feel that they may be psychologically feeling a bit disappointed with themselves. I don't have much more to back up this tip. I'll post my official selections later in the week. EDIT: I'm happy with these selections. Again well done to those who had a successful week last week. And to those who didn't, bad luck, there's always this week :).

[goochrules]

Re: AFL Finals: Week 2 Thanks had a great week:clap i like freos chances aswell, its only early this week however geelong were terrible friday. aamazed a punter put 500k on st kilda after 6 weeks of shit, and one good performance, amazing..

[jeremda01]

Re: AFL Finals: Week 2 for those of you who are interested in the Saints...here is a webpage from befair the with the stats on the stakes made for them to win the flag... http://au.site.sports.betfair.com/betting/LoadRunnerInfoAction.do?marketId=100106152&selectionId=244688&timeZone=Australia/Sydney&region=AUS_NZL&locale=en&brand=betfair&currency=AUD

[J_R_Ca-H]

Re: AFL Finals: Week 2 All I know is I gotta make $1350 on the punt before the tickets run out :hope

[goochrules]

Re: AFL Finals: Week 2 Suming it up TazaD i think your comments are quite comical and i have come to the conclusion that you are just a HATER. 18mins more in the forward half for the pies, B> Scott ive never seen numbers like that, "it wasnt even close for us when we lost to saints by 104 earlier in the year. Jason Dunstall "Pies are full of confidence and are really showing their presence to a physical extent. Alastair Lynch "they are on the border of arrogance which shows how well they are travelling" I usually dont read too much media hype to form my opinion towards footy, but ive read every article since sat night, On the Couch yesterday and Insider today, EVERY articlre completely contradicts your comments about collingwood. THe bookmakers would also disagree i and disagree , usually i would accept this but i truly believe your comments were ill-advised and just to hate on the pies.. bit saddenning really.

[goochrules]

Re: AFL Finals: Week 2 the man himself pls have a read http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=752305&page=4 The video on page 3 just shows exactly how soft maxwell was as a youngster..

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Finals: Week 2 The video is an excellent example of toughness & leadership, gooch :ok. It showed Jonathan Brown without fear & eyes only for the ball - his teammates will have got a huge lift from that act. On the other hand #27 for Collingwood looking at the man rather than the ball and focusing on taking Brown's legs out - an act they're currently looking at stamping out of the game.

[milano01]

Re: AFL Finals: Week 2 thinking of fremantle with the handicap, am i the only one?

[goochrules]

Re: AFL Finals: Week 2

thinking of fremantle with the handicap' date=' am i the only one?[/quote'] nope your not the only one bookies have got these odds awfully wrong

[milano01]

Re: AFL Finals: Week 2 +39,5 handi on fremantle, i am still thinking of what stake i ll put, also thinking if the line will change or not , looking forward to reading opinions from the AFL experts :nana

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Finals: Week 2

Suming it up TazaD i think your comments are quite comical and i have come to the conclusion that you are just a HATER. 18mins more in the forward half for the pies' date=' B> Scott ive never seen numbers like that, "it wasnt even close for us when we lost to saints by 104 earlier in the year. Jason Dunstall "Pies are full of confidence and are really showing their presence to a physical extent. Alastair Lynch "they are on the border of arrogance which shows how well they are travelling" I usually dont read too much media hype to form my opinion towards footy, but ive read every article since sat night, On the Couch yesterday and Insider today, EVERY articlre completely contradicts your comments about collingwood. THe bookmakers would also disagree i and disagree , usually i would accept this but i truly believe your comments were ill-advised and just to hate on the pies.. bit saddenning really.[/quote'] Er...way to bring the next week's thread down to (some sort!) of level... :unsure I don't know...I could very well answer every single one of your 'points'...yet me being a "hater", seems to pale in comparison of your homing ability... If you want me to finish what I started in last week's thread I'm happy to... ...bit pointless tho, since Collingwood don't play for another week and there are plenty of people here far more interested (rightly so) in this weeks games ahead. But seriously mate...let's get some (ANY!) kind of perspective here... ...these are the exact same media guru's who told us all that the Hawks would romp over Freo...oh, sorry, so did the books :eyes ... ...why did they have that opinion?...As we all discussed last week, basically because they all have extremely short term memories and all saw Hawks v. Freo reserves 2 weeks prior... ...as I mentioned in last week's thread, the Dogs/Pies game has that very same pungient odour. :spank (And, I'd also be careful about taking too much notice of the last Coll/Geel meeting as both teams simply went head-to-head with little to no tactical game plan at all.) Last time I'll bother repeating any of this, but 2 of Bulldogs key players out (and no, it's not that Morris is consistant, more that he is vital to their defensive structure...as witnessed by at times last week seeing Gilbee manning up Cloke, and Tim Callan on Dawes)...not helped of course that both Williams and Lake spent time off the ground... ...why was the ball up one end so long? Because the Dogs chose to play an extra man at the contest...presumably to to try minimise Coll I50's...terrible decision, as it left Maxwell alone the entire game standing a kick behind play. Dogs forward line consisted solely of Hall (doubled teamed on the rare occassions it made it that deep), and two guys, Johnson and Higgins, who are both at about 60%. ...Due mainly to allowing Coll to have that spare player free, the Dogs had 55 clangers (2nd worst of their season...only the Melb game in pouring rain worse), and 62% efficiency, which is their worst of the year. The Bulldogs are simply not a top 4 team...and barely a top 8 team, as we'll probably see this weekend. Well, aren't, given you're putting weight to all things bookie... You dismissed some "meaningless stats", but I absolutely believe they are quite logical... ...in 3 games v. a pretty ordinary Bulldogs team, Collingwood have been more efficient with their disposal on all 3 meetings, with an av. of 74% - 68%... ...in 5 games v. the other top 5 teams in the comp they are just 1-4, with an av. of 70% - 74%. Why? All sorts of reasons...mainly because the other teams are bigger, stronger and more skillful. (put simply!)... ...the other main reason is that the other 3 teams do not and will not allow Collingwood to have a loose man in defense. ...which leads nicely into stat number 2. (Again, as already mentioned.) 3 of the 5 'less than average' games the Pies defense have had have been against Geelong and St. Kilda. Co-incidence? Clearly... :lol Geelong specifically...J-Pod will be back in his lead-up role...N. Brown/Reid Mooney probably gets the other one...Will Presti be back for Hawkins?... ...if not their goes L. Brown out of the forward line... ...Maxwell, O'Brien, Shaw...Varcoe, Stokes, Johnson...some mis-matches there... With all due respect, I'd suggest you saying that it was "imho that was the best collingwood has played all year" , is far more comical than anything I've said before or since...given that with 2 minutes to go in the first half Coll were a mere 4 goals up against a vastly inferior (and over-rated) team. Anyway...you can come to what ever conclusion you like gooch...(including the one to deflect from Maxwell's (in)action Sat ;) )... ...but the only real conclusion I can help you out with, is to remind you that we are all guests on a (very good) gambling website...it's not a place for over-excitable fans with a chip on their shoulders to come and vent frustrations. (esp. midweek! :\ ) I absolutely stand by what I said that imho Collingwood are poor value at such short odds, and getting Geelong at anything greater than ~2.20 (subject to injuries this weekend of course) would be pretty juicy. (Bit I'm not a bookie, so what would I know? ;) ) Right...end of! (Until next week at least.) Back to matters at hand... :cheers

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Finals: Week 2 How dare you introduce common sense into this thread Taz :ok

[goochrules]

Re: AFL Finals: Week 2 Okay taza we will agree to disagree obviously have complete polar views. Yes obv i am a biased fan but i get down to the club when i can, and watch all games 3-4 times, and i do respect your analysis to, as you said we are out to take the bookies to the cleaners, and i am appreciative of everyone who posts their opinions, unlike many who just pretty much abuse the site for tips.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Finals: Week 2 :ok :cheers Regards the Freo game...1) It's a relatively tough game to get much of a handle on, simply because Freo haven't played on the MCG in over a year! (Rd. 20, 2009)...and, I'm pretty sure (could be wrong) that they have never played a final here. Their Victorian form has been poor for along time...wins v. Ess and Carlton this year...but 5 of their last 10 have been 40+ losses, inc. their last 2 games v. Doggies and North Melbourne. Road form is terrible for one main reason...they allow over 57 I50's per game away from home! Form in the run home looks ok, but just 4 of their last 10 games were away (all losses), and completely disregarding the Launceston give-up, just one of those 4 games was v. a top 8 team. Lost by 82 v. what has proven to be a pretty ordinary Bulldogs. Despite "struggling" into the finals, Cats still won 6 of their last 10 by 35+ points. This does tend historically to be a bit of a 1-sided weekend of finals, as the top 4 are generally clearly better teams...favs have covered 7 of the last 10, and 4 of the last 7 have been by 37+ points. I reckon the line looks about right...dangers either way...Did Freo play their final last week? Pav still didn't appear 100%, Sandilands is banged up and won't play in the ruck this week...too many players go missing on the road as it is...it really could be a blow out... ...on the other hand, there's always the chance Geelong cruise through with a million rotations and rest players late if they are up by a decent amount. IMO, the other game is even tougher to pick! Barring a favourable DT match-up somewhere...or a really off total...dare say I'll be having a very quiet weekend. [bring on Monday am for the NFL!! :tongue2 ...except I'll have to go to work for a change, so no :beer :wall ] :ok

[saintg1]

Re: AFL Finals: Week 2

FRI		Numerous Showers. Mostly Cloudy. Cool.	13 km/h W	10mm (88%)	88%	8	15
SAT		Mostly Sunny. Mild.	8 km/h WNW	-	59%	8	17

Weather forecast for Melbourne this weekend. 10mm rain forecast Friday, none Saturday, 88% humidity Friday etc Weather looks like it may bring the line into play Friday (currently +/-39.5 Sportsbet). These conditions likely to suit Geelong and impact on Freo's running game.

[goochrules]

Re: AFL Finals: Week 2

FRI		Numerous Showers. Mostly Cloudy. Cool.	13 km/h W	10mm (88%)	88%	8	15
SAT		Mostly Sunny. Mild.	8 km/h WNW	-	59%	8	17

Weather forecast for Melbourne this weekend. 10mm rain forecast Friday, none Saturday, 88% humidity Friday etc Weather looks like it may bring the line into play Friday (currently +/-39.5 Sportsbet). These conditions likely to suit Geelong and impact on Freo's running game.

Thanks for that saint, hoping weather bureau get it wrong as per usual:rollin ballantyne back, with an apparently fully fit sandilands is nearing a full strength team. I got a weird feeling freo are going to win this

[saintg1]

Re: AFL Finals: Week 2

Thanks for that saint' date=' hoping weather bureau get it wrong as per usual:rollin ballantyne back, with an apparently fully fit sandilands is nearing a full strength team. I got a weird feeling freo are going to win this[/quote'] Not sure the bureau are far off Gooch, the weather in Melbourne recently has been as you would expect in a Mlb winter. You would have seen the news footage no doubt of the weather sweeping Victoria in recent weeks. I live within sightline of the MCG and felt the hail when it hit recently in the Richmond game (great tv footage of the hail bouncing off the Tigers player as he was lining up a shot for goal). If the rain hits as it has in recent times, it will certainly play into the Cats hands.

[goochrules]

Re: AFL Finals: Week 2 Fremantle + 39.5 @ $1.91 9/10 sportingbet Right, im going to go against most of the views of analysts, and everything ive been reading. Everyone is writing of Fremantle, bla bla Collingwood vs Geelong prelim cant wait, what a heap of trash. if geelong and the public come with this view fremantle will win this game, does anyone really think this side is going to just roll over? The pavlich resigning really outlines what he thinks of this young bunch. I said the same stuff last week, they have a really enthusiastic coach, a terrific onfield leader, a really talented bunch of young kids who have amazing belief to back themselves in and break lines. Geelong havent enjoyed pace this year, Carlton pumped them by 5 goals, they didnt fare well in the shootout against the pies, the bombers have had them stretched for a few quarters, and the adelaide run of half back really cut them up. I see a similar theme here, the sides that will to take risks, break lines moving the ball very quickly have much success against geelong. The MCG factor wont be as big as many think OVAL dimensions ive tried to find, but lots of things seem to contradict, however i always thought both similar distance end to end, and freo love to play up the middle so it shouldnt affect them as much as many are claiming. Geelong usually have the easy pass with the week of in the past few years, i didnt want to judge them to harshly because i thought they may be in cruise control but last week completed my view.. the old legs are catching up, whos going to play on hill.. i hope not ablett because he runs one way, and as wellingham has done just burnt ablett the other way. Whos going to stop mundy, duffy, morabito i really like freos chances here the line is too big, and i think this interstate side is being sick of criticized , and prove the haters wrong just like they have all year long. Bulldogs vs Sydney imho is too close to call, i believe doggies will bounce back but odds are perfect

[b10111]

Re: AFL Finals: Week 2 -39.5 Geelong v Fremantle +39.5 pick Geelong outright Even after the upsets last week This shapes as a very one-sided affair based on the hosts burning desire to make up for the loss to the saints, along with the prospect of another preliminary final meeting with Collingwood.

Freos win last weekend against the Hawks was an upset to most, although to some of us given the Hawks travel blues we did expect them to surprise however you don’t expect them to pull another 2 weekends in a row.I believe the outright is almost certain however it is difficult to make a call on the handicap because Stephen Hill has the ability to run their backs rugged.

Freo did win their last meeting so they have earned my respect enough not to play the handicap in favour of Geo unless with small stakes.

Western Bulldogs v Sydney Swans pick Sydney Swans outright

The injuries keep taking their toll on the Dogs and with an ill tempered display against Collingwood the belief certainly isn’t there for them to think they can go all the way so to me the Dogs definitely are making up the numbers but however they play a team I can barely trust especially away from home. They may have pulled an upset last weekend, huge one but can they do it again? They have rightly been tagged as favorites which is a worry itself. They haven't lost since round 18 and have beaten four top-eight sides in the past five weeks. They outlasted Carlton last week in a thriller at ANZ Stadium to book this semi-final.

There is a serious lack of discipline in the dogs camp to even think they can take anything from this match. I would bet small stakes here but the Swans are favorites.

[goochrules]

Re: AFL Finals: Week 2

-39.5 Geelong v Fremantle +39.5 pick Geelong outright Even after the upsets last week This shapes as a very one-sided affair based on the hosts burning desire to make up for the loss to the saints, along with the prospect of another preliminary final meeting with Collingwood.

Freos win last weekend against the Hawks was an upset to most, although to some of us given the Hawks travel blues we did expect them to surprise however you don’t expect them to pull another 2 weekends in a row.I believe the outright is almost certain however it is difficult to make a call on the handicap because Stephen Hill has the ability to run their backs rugged.

Freo did win their last meeting so they have earned my respect enough not to play the handicap in favour of Geo unless with small stakes.

Western Bulldogs v Sydney Swans pick Sydney Swans outright

The injuries keep taking their toll on the Dogs and with an ill tempered display against Collingwood the belief certainly isn’t there for them to think they can go all the way so to me the Dogs definitely are making up the numbers but however they play a team I can barely trust especially away from home. They may have pulled an upset last weekend, huge one but can they do it again? They have rightly been tagged as favorites which is a worry itself. They haven't lost since round 18 and have beaten four top-eight sides in the past five weeks. They outlasted Carlton last week in a thriller at ANZ Stadium to book this semi-final.

There is a serious lack of discipline in the dogs camp to even think they can take anything from this match. I would bet small stakes here but the Swans are favorites.

Cant really see the value of betting a team at $1.10- $1.15 in the long run that is -EV imho.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Finals: Week 2 ...as you've made painfully clear...(with a whole lot of hopeful/wishful thinking I might add ;) ) b10111 obviously thinks differently. (Solid write-up too. :ok ) At the risk of being jumped by a roaming gang of African-American sports-stars-come-hiphop-artists...don't turn into one of those 'haters' yourself... :\

[goochrules]

Re: AFL Finals: Week 2 No hating taza.. just saying you have to Put a big outlay to reap the rewards of a solid return on teams at $1.10-$1.15 geelong have not been invincible this year.. if it works for you so be it and good luck, however i thought i was just stating the obvious:rollin Plus mackie out seems an awful move to move no matter if its wet or dry

[J_R_Ca-H]

Re: AFL Finals: Week 2

No hating taza.. just saying you have to Put a big outlay to reap the rewards of a solid return on teams at $1.10-$1.15 geelong have not been invincible this year.. if it works for you so be it and good luck, however i thought i was just stating the obvious:rollin Plus mackie out seems an awful move to move no matter if its wet or dry

Mackie will play IMO, and that seemed to be David Parkins opinion on AFL teams last night, just too good to leave out regardless of last weeks performance. Playing the Most Disposals Market in a field of 8, Bartlel looks a value pick @ 5s Sportsbet. BOG last week if not for entire game at least Geelong. Expect Ablett, Chapman and Selwood to lift on last week, but I have some ??? over them.

1. Odds Avg Season Avg Vs Freo/Geel
2. GAblett @ 3.25 30.9 22.3
3. Chapman@ 3.5 28.4 19.2
4. Selwood @ 4.25 28.3 23
5. Bartel @ 5 25.7 25
6. Broughton @ 9 24.7 18.3
7. Mundy @ 14 22.7 16.4
8. Duffield @ 21 20.7 14.3
9. Pavlich @ 26 18.8 20.5

[Chris25]

Re: AFL Finals: Week 2 Who are people backing tonight? I might go for an over under, H2H is too risky tonight.

[goochrules]

Re: AFL Finals: Week 2

Who are people backing tonight? I might go for an over under' date=' H2H is too risky tonight.[/quote'] Think im the only one in AUSTRALIA backing freo.. everyone seems to think they will get slaughtered but i fail to see under what grounds, gotta see it to believe it hehe;) Chris do you like overs tomorrow night? i know you like to bet the lines, it seems like Sydney play lot of quite attacking football, and Dogs should have a bit more room to move this week.

[Chris25]

Re: AFL Finals: Week 2 Hey mate, I think you are. But with those odds and the finals pressure, I think it is warranted to have a go at Fremantle for sure. Yeah definitely overs for me tomorrow night, I like my lines. :) Sydney and Western Bulldogs have a great record for booting lots of goals, plus they both have a lot to play for.Tonight, not so sure. MCG will be wet, so a bit of slipping over will be happening but Geelong seem to play well no matter what, and Freo have been racking up high scores for a few weeks now. All this says to me is over 188... But I need to be convinced. :)

[goochrules]

Re: AFL Finals: Week 2 :hope

Hey mate, I think you are. But with those odds and the finals pressure, I think it is warranted to have a go at Fremantle for sure. Yeah definitely overs for me tomorrow night, I like my lines. :) Sydney and Western Bulldogs have a great record for booting lots of goals, plus they both have a lot to play for.Tonight, not so sure. MCG will be wet, so a bit of slipping over will be happening but Geelong seem to play well no matter what, and Freo have been racking up high scores for a few weeks now. All this says to me is over 188... But I need to be convinced. :)

hehe ive just had a gut feeling all week, hope they dont come out and get blown away:lol but yes odds of $7 and a line at 40 i cant refuse. Im glad we are on the same page tomorrow:ok should be a great game like carlton syd last week providing the weather is good, definitely see overs. Gl with whatever bets you decide to play mate

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Finals: Week 2

Freo have been racking up high scores for a few weeks now. All this says to me is over 188... But I need to be convinced. :)

Dockers have topped 94 in 1 of their last 9... ...I do love the spin on Sandilands...He can't come off because he will seize up..."we'll rest him in the forward line, that should worry Geelong."... ...nothing against Freo specifically...but er, no...a lumbering man, who can't rest and can't jump is going to make Geelong less worry and more giggle. I'm sure you don't need to be told this gooch, but some people think that in this particular situation Geelong would beat Freo 9 out of 10 times... ...and they would bet their usual amount and win 10% accordingly. I'm personally not one of those people, and clearly neither are you...but as far as "obvious" goes... :\ History suggets that both this weeks games will be low scoring...but yeah, given the specific match-ups I'm not entirely convenced. Swans gave up 62 I50's to Carlton last week... ...and Dogs D has gone to the pack. Definately agree that 171 looks lowish tomorrow.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Finals: Week 2

Who are people backing tonight? I might go for an over under' date=' H2H is too risky tonight.[/quote']No bet for me. I feel the market is about spot on and this scenario, including taking a proppy star in usually is a blowout result but Harvey seems to have found some good chemistry (a bit of Sheedy mixed in) and won't at all surprise if they do take it up but at the same time it may easily be a 70 point blowout, and the h'cap is same as I've marked it. Cats should be extra mean on the rebound despite the whinging was bad karma IMO. Psychologically IMO the build up Harvey would be best advised to have delivered is not about trying to stress "we can win this". If they've been using that as a theme they'll get thumped for sure. Alternatively if it's "solidarity & commitment regardless of the scoreboard", "pride" and stuff like that then that mentality should work wonders but it's also important to include another important little affirmation "take the win if it's there" otherwise they'll fail by a kick, guaranteed. OK, nuff, your all thinking BS, I know it. Enjoy the game :cheers.

[Chris25]

Re: AFL Finals: Week 2

:hope hehe ive just had a gut feeling all week, hope they dont come out and get blown away:lol but yes odds of $7 and a line at 40 i cant refuse. Im glad we are on the same page tomorrow:ok should be a great game like carlton syd last week providing the weather is good, definitely see overs. Gl with whatever bets you decide to play mate

Definitely overs tomorrow mate, good luck with tonights bet as well. I opted out, too hard to predict. Hoping the weather is good tomorrow. :)