French Top 14 - 1st Sept

[NIGEL2611]

Montpellier v Toulouse Wednesday 1st September 2010, 17:00

Handicap Betting :nonfbm_toggle('nonfbm9414467');void(0)'>Hide

Montpellier (-2.0) :void(0)'>10/11

Handicap Draw (-2.0) :void(0)'>22/1

Toulouse (+2.0) :void(0)'>10/11

As the handicap suggests this will be a close game between two of the leading teams. But in saying this, due to the stupidity of the French Union & the TV schedule (3 games in 10 days!) all of these games will be spoiled due to teams having to rest players. Toulouse even with the size & depth of their squad will not be at full strength, so Montpellier should pick up the points but nothing is guaranteed - no bet for me! Bayonne v Brive Wednesday 1st September 2010, 18:00

Handicap Betting :nonfbm_toggle('nonfbm9414476');void(0)'>Hide

Bayonne (-8.0) :void(0)'>10/11

Handicap Draw (-8.0) :void(0)'>22/1

Brive (+8.0) :void(0)'>10/11

Bayonne have started the season well, they are a physical side and almost caused a shock on the first day of the season, away at Toulouse! Brive on the other hand have been out muscled in two of their games and beat a poor Perpignan in the other! Bayonne to cover the -8 for me! Perpignan v Biarritz Wednesday 1st September 2010, 18:00

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Perpignan (-6.0) :void(0)'>10/11

Handicap Draw (-6.0) :void(0)'>20/1

Biarritz (+6.0) :void(0)'>10/11

By their own standards both of these clubs are currently in turmoil and this game could go either way! I would probably side with Perpignan but that is only because they are at home! My advice is to leave this game alone! La Rochelle v Toulon Wednesday 1st September 2010, 18:00

Handicap Betting :nonfbm_toggle('nonfbm9414481');void(0)'>Hide

La Rochelle (+7.0) :void(0)'>10/11

Handicap Draw (7.0) :void(0)'>22/1

Toulon (-7.0) :void(0)'>10/11

Toulon let me down in the last game and I didn't like what I saw from Mr Wilkinson. Sure he kicks well but Rugby is now more than just kicking and I thought Toulon lacked imagination in attack. La Rochelle have surprised people with their start, they also have a solid kickers in Baboul & Lebourhis and if they can beef it up against Toulon I believe that they can not only cover the +7 handicap but I think they will win this game! +7 Too generous to walk away from! Stade Francais v Castres Wednesday 1st September 2010, 18:00

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Stade Francais (-10.0) :void(0)'>10/11

Handicap Draw (-10.0) :void(0)'>20/1

Castres (+10.0) :void(0)'>10/11

Stade will have a strong side out, unlike Castres who will rest due to fixture congestion. Stade rested most of their side against Toulouse and so in their minds this is a must win game against a side who will have a home fixture against Racing Metro in fours days on their minds. Stade to cover the -10 for me! Bourgoin v Agen Wednesday 1st September 2010, 18:00

Handicap Betting :nonfbm_toggle('nonfbm9414485');void(0)'>Hide

Bourgoin (-9.0) :void(0)'>10/11

Handicap Draw (-9.0) :void(0)'>20/1

Agen (+9.0) :void(0)'>10/11

Two candidates for relegation here! Bourgoin are yet to score a try this season, but in De Bernado they have a solid kicker. Agen have scored points & tries this season, are they good enough to win maybe they are and maybe Bourgoin can win at home, will either of these teams carry my money-NO CHANCE! Racing Metro v Clermont Auvergne Wednesday 1st September 2010, 19:45

Handicap Betting :nonfbm_toggle('nonfbm9414469');void(0)'>Hide

Racing Metro (-6.0) :void(0)'>10/11

Handicap Draw (-6.0) :void(0)'>20/1

Clermont Auvergne (+6.0) :void(0)'>10/11

Another fascinating contest, I liked what I saw of Racing against Toulon and they really seemed to enjoy rubbing the Toulon noses in the ground. Again what Clermont team will turn up, they play Montpellier on the 5th! For me -6 should be achievable for a side with stong ambitions and currently riding on the crest of a wave after a shock away win! Handicaps taken from Paddy Power. Good Luck everyone!

[De Danann]

Re: French Top 14 - 1st Sept Nigel, First class, I would go along with most of your predictions...However, Bourgoin (-9) v Agen could be a bit of value. I say this because Agen have omitted 11 players from winning side last weekend. Home advantage , potential first win , plus the most important ingredient, "hunger" may get them over the -9 barrier......best...Danann

[marseille]

Re: French Top 14 - 1st Sept

Sport	Rugby Union
Event	Montpellier - Toulouse
Selection	Toulouse +1.5
Strength	8/10
Date	01/09/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 1.90
Reasoning	1st match of this 4th round today 3day after 3rd round.Montpellier create a big suprise with a win at Perpignan...and Stade Toulousain secure a win vs a B team of Stade Francais. For this match Toulouse is in preparation camp since Monday: want to make a 3/3 win in 8 day.After reception of stade francais will play at Montpellier who register come back of key player due to a turnover but this team of Montpellier is clearly not on paper a big team of this top14 like Clermont Racing Toulon Biarritz or Stade Francais .Find this Toulouse team in great form for a start of season in comparaison with Perpignan Clermont or Toulon and before receive La Rochelle Sunday see them make a result in Motpellier stadium. Got a amazing bench :Human, Servat, Bouilhou, Dusautoir, Medard, Clerc, Montes and for me will clearly make the difference if was not already done in 1st half.Toulouse by 1-12 was my first choice but i'm afraid of a draw result so i secure on +1.5 GL ;)

[b10111]

Re: French Top 14 - 1st Sept -2.5 Montpellier (5th) vs Stade Toulousain (1st) +2.5 Montpellier win

The handicap on the home team does appear generous but I guess the book makers are wary of Montpellier’s inconsistency. Montpellier pulled off THE result of Round 3 with their stunning 16-6 away win at Perpignan - ending a near two-year unbeaten spell at the Stade Aimé Giral.This game will be tough for them but Confidence should also be sky high after their weekend victory and with French fly-half Francois Trinh-Duc currently in irresistible form.They did lose to Stade at home last season and since it’s a weekday match , home advantage is not much of an advantage.

It’s a tight call but because I havnt seen enough of stade to call them on an away match I will happily take the home team on the handicap.

+5.5 La Rochelle (7th) vs Toulon (9th) -5.5 Toulon win

Its early in the season but Toulon are getting to the point were its difficult to back them. They were soundly beaten last weekend and its hard to back against them given they beat Barritz in round 2 against the odds. The handicap is a bit restrictive given that they are not yet fluid enough to go free scoring but a game against the new comers should be open enough to result in a big win if Toulon can win at all.

I back Toulon based on their desperation and the fact that the newcomers cant possibly win 3 in a row.

-8.5 Perpignan (12th) Biarritz (10th) +8.5 Perpignan win

If Biarritz cannot raise themselves enough to beat newcomers then surely there is no hope for them against Perpigan. The home outright win is obvious as you would expect them to have learnt from their beating by Montpellier but can they justify the -8.5 handicap when they weren’t even close to winning at home over the weekend.

I have no clue!

I wouldn’t mess with the handicap but if forced I would have to believe Perpigan can win by 9 or more.

-11.5 Stade Francais (3rd) Castres (6th) +11.5 Stade Francais win

Stade Francais boss Michael Cheika has brought back his big guns after resting them for Saturday's 34-16 away defeat at Stade Toulousain. Hulking centre Mathieu Bastareaud is back in the starting XV, alongside the likes of Dimitri Szarzewski, Tom Palmer, Sergio Parisse and the half-back pairing of Julien Dupuy and Lionel Beauxis. There is no place, however, for Juan Manuel Leguizamon after the Argentine international was cited for an alleged eye-gouging incident against Stade Toulousain's Jean Bouilhou at the weekend.

Another game that screams obvious home win but I guess if we have learnt anything this season is expect the unexpected however if you are going to bet go for the over.Home team to win by more than a dozen.To make you more confident Last season: Stade Francais 44 Castres 18

-7.5 Bourgoin (14th) SU Agen (13th) +7.5 Bourgoin win

Bourgoin go into this home clash with Agen knowing that nothing but a victory will do to start their campaign. The troubled club go into this match point-less, shot of confidence and are yet to even register a single try so far this season. Those are statistics to make most head coach's fear for their very future, and there's no doubting that they will be all guns blazing tonight. The one glimmer of hope for Bourgoin is that Agen appear to have thrown away the trusted maxim of not fixing what aint broke by making 11 changes to the team which beat Biarritz at home at the weekend to register their own first win of the season.

The outright win is a possibility but for a team that is yet to score a try I would be hesitant to back them on the handicap.

-7.5 Bayonne (4th) Brive (11th) +7.5 Bayonne win

Another game that screams easy home win but don’t bet the house on any of these games until round 8.At half-time on Saturday Bayonne appeared to be heading for an unlikely third successive league win of the season, but the Basques ran out of gas after the break as they let a 19-16 lead evaporate into a 25-16 defeat. The visitors arrive beaten 33-9 at derby rivals Clermont, but their team selection at the weekend indicated they were placing somewhat more emphasis on winning this match.

It will be heart in your mouths stuff but bayonne have been decent enough to be backed for the outright win.

-5.5 Racing-Métro 92 (8th) Clermont Auvergne (2nd) +5.5 Racing win

The odds for an outright win for the home side are decent and they have lots of motivation which is one of the things I look for in a winning team. Last season's controversial 21-17 quarter-final defeat by Clermont that will be uppermost in their minds on Wednesday night. A couple of dubious reffing decisions infuriated Racing boss Pierre Berbizier on that occasion, so what better way to release the frustration than by downing the reigning French champions in Paris?no-one can now doubt the serious title credentials of Racing-Métro 92, they have already registered two impressive away wins following their triumphs at Brive and (last weekend) Toulon.

The home win looks a possibility however the handicap is tricky as I haven’t seen Racing play at home to determine what sort of tactics they adopt once they gain a lead.

The outright is decent enough no neded to go fishing in the handicap department.

Good Luck, Lets hope for some easy money tonight:hope

[b10111]

Re: French Top 14 - 1st Sept As usual can we have someone spot a potential upset so that we dont waste too much money on uncertain games:dude

[marseille]

Re: French Top 14 - 1st Sept

Sport	Rugby Union
Event	Perpignan - Biarritz
Selection	Perpignan -7
Strength	8/10
Date	01/09/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 1.90
Reasoning	A game between 2 big team of top14 but in difficult position at this start of season.Both got 1 win for 2 match loose. Expect a reaction of Perpignan after dissaster result of last week at home vs Montpellier (6-16).Let point at home and must repeare it tonight v Biarritz. Perpignan register important come back for this match with Le Corvec Porical Tuilagi Mas Guirardo and Mermoz.Concerning Biarritz little turnover with Peyrelongue & Lauret are out.Marconnet & terrain start on bench and Traille is once again out. Biarritz got 2 big match to prepare with reception of Stade Francais & Toulouse.Perpignan with many player come back must make a possitive result tonight if possible with offensive bonus point .Handicap of 7 point is not so high ,close match expected but Perpignan with home and motivation advantage will make the difference IMO GL

[marseille]

Re: French Top 14 - 1st Sept

Sport	Rugby Union
Event	Racing Metro - Clermont
Selection	Over 38.5
Strength	9/10
Date	01/09/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Boylesports @ 1.83
Reasoning	Odd i find really value here .Will be te first home match of season fro Racing men and is vs last year champion. Both team practice an open rugby and with last news i heard Clermont will come at Paris with turnover an ambition to play offensive rugby with a 9/10 player Senio/Russel.Really impotant bench for Clermont with Parra James Rougerie Ledesma Vermulen. Racing with VuliVuli Bobo Fall or Saubade will give a hard work to Clermont ,with a scorer like Wisnewski i will be very suprise if this game finish by under 40 point

[marseille]

Re: French Top 14 - 1st Sept

Sport	Rugby Union
Event	Bayonne - Brive
Selection	Bayonne by 1-10
Strength	8/10
Date	01/09/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ 3.00
Reasoning	This game give generally a close match in favour of home team.Brive make a large turnover at Clermont and Bayonne must react after loose at Castres. Big miss is Bayonne number 10 Boyet keep for match at Bourgoin next week.Expect a match of front line here Brive got a hard calendar at this start of season and must come back with something after receive Toulon .Lot of come back register in both team : A home win with defencive bonus point for away team and all are happy ;) GL

[marseille]

Re: French Top 14 - 1st Sept

Sport	Rugby Union
Event	La Rochelle - Toulon
Selection	La Rochelle +8
Strength	8/10
Date	01/09/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ 1.90
Reasoning	Since start of season La Rochelle got really good result at home win 2 match and conceded only 29 point. Concerning Toulon after 2 home match loose expect to make a away result again but don't think will be easy vs La Rochelle. Biarritz make a lot of hand error and fould who permit at Toulon to win 13-3 but tonight ,things will be different :La Rochelle play all their home match at 100% and don't think will be so easy for Toulon .Book clearly underevalueted La Rochelle IMO Toulon come with full squad but home advantage must be consider here and la Rochelle could clearly come back with a defencive bonus point GL

[marseille]

Re: French Top 14 - 1st Sept

Sport	Rugby Union
Event	Bourgoin - Agen
Selection	Bourgoin by 13 or more
Strength	6/10
Date	01/09/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Bwin @ 2.65
Reasoning	Bourgoin lastteam of this top14 with 0 point and no try score this season receive Agen who come from ProD2. Agen stay on a great win at home vs Biarritz but in away match got clearly some problem to make result and conceded lot of point: 27-0 at Bayonne and 44-24 at Toulouse. For this match Agen choose to make a large turnover with 11 newcomer in the group.Are clearly focus on next game at home vs Perpignan.Really good opportunity for Bourgoin to make a larg win score try and give plesure to their fans

[marseille]

Re: French Top 14 - 1st Sept

Sport	Rugby Union
Event	Stade Francais - Castres
Selection	Stades Francais -9
Strength	8/10
Date	01/09/2010
Bookmaker/Price	888Sport @ 1.90
Reasoning	Stade Francais is clearly the best home team of this starting season.With 2 easy home win 41-26/43-12 vs La Rochelle & Bourgoin receive tonight Castres to confirm their superiority in Stade jean Bouin. For this match Castres chooseto make turnoverand key scorer of the team Teulet is absent tonight huge miss and Castres got an important match to prepare next week with reception of Racing Metro . Don't think Castres will resist more than 1half vs this strong team of stade Francais .Make some turnover at Toulouse last week and are ready to continue their winning serie at home

[NIGEL2611]

Re: French Top 14 - 1st Sept

[However, Bourgoin (-9) v Agen could be a bit of value. I say this because Agen have omitted 11 players from winning side last weekend. Home advantage , potential first win , plus the most important ingredient, "hunger" may get them over the -9 barrier......best...Danann/QUOTE] You could be right but I just could not back a team at -9, who are yet to score any tries this season! Good Luck everyone with their picks!!!

[NIGEL2611]

Re: French Top 14 - 1st Sept Montpellier v Toulouse 22-21 What a game, last second try and a missed conversion kick to win it for Toulouse! Good start Marseille! :clap

[NIGEL2611]

Re: French Top 14 - 1st Sept Perpignan 17-12 Biarritz-No Bet. Controversial try wins it for Perpignan! Bayonne 19-18 Brive :@ La Rochelle 13-15 Toulon :nana Mr Wilkinson rescues Toulon! Bourgoin 22-15 Agen No bet Stade Français 40-34 Castres:@ Racing-Metro 28-17 Clermont. :nana Never mind, at least I do not have to wait long for the next set of matches!

[marseille]

Re: French Top 14 - 1st Sept yep not bad with a 4/7 result . Stade Francais who lead 40-17 after 50min and almost loose the match with a referee video for a try between post :eek Note that all the home team win by 1-10 ,only Toulon who was clearly favorit manage to win at La Rochelle by 1-10 too ;) see you this week for next round :nana

[b10111]

Re: French Top 14 - 1st Sept

Perpignan 17-12 Biarritz-No Bet. Controversial try wins it for Perpignan! Bayonne 19-18 Brive :@ La Rochelle 13-15 Toulon :nana Mr Wilkinson rescues Toulon! Bourgoin 22-15 Agen No bet Stade Français 40-34 Castres:@ Racing-Metro 28-17 Clermont. :nana Never mind, at least I do not have to wait long for the next set of matches!

:okGot my 4 outrights in bayonne,Toulon,Stade fracais and Bourgoin. Handicaps are proving to be a touch impossible but the scent of home advantage is coming back as teams get into shape. Like you Im glad the next games are soon.Will roll out my preview tomorrow.

[NIGEL2611]

Re: French Top 14 - 1st Sept

Like you Im glad the next games are soon.Will roll out my preview tomorrow

Look forward to it b10111! I'll have to post early as I am at Twickenham for the double header Saturday & the Women's World Cup Final Sunday.