Tennis - US Open

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - US Open

Think it's a dodgy one mate' date=' wouldn't trust Brown to finish the match in 3 sets even though RRH is not a fast court player. Only watched Brown a couple of times but he's pretty average - wouldn't be surprised to see a 4 or 5 setter there.[/quote'] Ofcourse Brown is average. This is his first real good year as a tennisplayer. Gulbis have taken one step further this year and he's been in quarterfinal of Rolland Garros and fourth round of US open before. Chardy maybe had a good run in Cincinnati but he still is no grand slam player and Gulbis will be too good. Tiebreak is likely but I think I take my chances with the greater talent in straight sets. I'll have a treble with Brown 3-0 4.50, Gulbis 3-0 4.00 and team USA Basket hcp vs Iran tomorrow (They will probably win 40+ points and hcp would be around -28).

[LAMPS]

Re: Tennis - US Open Most MAJORS i like to back and then lay an outsider once at the Qtr Final stage for a decent profit and this major is no exception. However, like most i'm struggling to find anyone at ALL that stands out. Ideally I look for >100/1 shots that if they make week 2 are a great price to lay off, but as mentioned there is noone i like this year so instead this is the best I could come up with: Nikolay Davydenko since returning from injury hasn't been the "SAME" Nikolay that played so well at the back end of last year and the start of this one, however I back him to finally come good on a surface he plays well on. On hard courts in general when it matters Davydenko has a fantastic record of late, he won the Shanghai masters and in Doha beating Nadal (twice), Djokovic, Federer and Karlovic. He then lost to Federer in this years Australian in 4 sets but Federer faced 19 break points against him! Davydenko on his day on a hard court can clearly mix it with the best. After the Australian in lesser tournaments he didn't play his best and THEN broke his left wrist. The results since have not been great and many say that Cincinnati plays as close to Flushing Meadows as anywhere and in that event Davydenko overcame Ginepri and Ferrer in good fashion but then lost to Federer in straight sets. That day he didn't take his break point chances well converting just 1/4. He did defend his own break points well though 8/11 and of course giving up 11 break points isn't great but to Federer on a hard court it doesn't seem to bad to me. So his route to the quarters... R1- Russell - Seems ok R2- Gasquet - Has potential shoulder problems and isn't in great form of late and has't a great record at the US Open. R3- Anderson/Belluci - both not in the best of form and Davydenko should be a class too much L16- Roddick/Monfils - Now i like Davydenko here against both despite Roddick having a good h2h against. Roddick has injury clouds over his head after his mononucleosis diagnosis and has a tricky few games against Tipsarevic and Monfils both have given him problems in the past and given Davydenko beat Roddick in their last hard court match up i like Davydenko here, Monfils - Isn't in the best of form and has had a few injuries himself in the past month. If he takes out Roddick in the round before I can't see him taking Davydenko out as well given how "fresher" Davydenko should be going into that matchup. Qtr - Time to Lay But potential opponent Fish/Djokovic. Both of which I don't mind fading, Fish has been great in recent weeks but now its a SLAM im not soo sure he can repeat his form and an earlier encounter with Bagdatis is going to go the distance for sure. Djokovic struggles with the heat and it's meant to be the hottest US Open for a while this year, the Serbian showed glipses of his ability in recent weeks but is just not the player he was. If he goes crashing Davydenko's price is sure to drop a great deal as Djokovic is the top seed for this quarter. If Davydenko makes the quarters he will be layable for a decent profit and win or lose I feel there's value in a trading point of view. Back DAvydenko 70/1 Betfair Or try 12/1 for Davydenko to win the Quarter again with hopeful trading opportunities best of luck with your punts

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - US Open sam stosur to beat elena vesnina at 8-11 sporting bet 2 points! i have to side with sam here! fair enough she has not been in great form of late (in poor form since the french open final) but i have read some recent quotes from her and all seems very positive, confident and perhaps most of all refreshed coming in to the US open this year! last year she complained of having played too many matches leading into flushing meadows but this year she says its not a bad thing to have a break and thet her arm is absolutely fine! she also says 'there's no reason why i couldn't do better than i have at the US open' and 'with the way i am playing right now, i think i can do well'! those quotes sounds like she is prepared to give the US open a big crack and perhaps go on a deep run! she has suffered recent bad losses to petrova and penneta but they are quality players and she's had a few good wins over the likes of errani, oudin and wickmayer lately so her form hasn't been as bad as it appears perhaps! vesnina has been in decent form herself! she did get to the final of istanbul a few weeks back but the quality of oppostion there wasn't amazing...voegele, rodionova and petkovic before losing to pavlyuchenkova! more recently she's been found out by ivanovic and kirilenko! she's obviously confident and a dangerous opponent and probably one stosur wont relish playing as vesnina plays aggressive and likes to take the ball on early and go for her shots but i can't help but feel that there is still a class difference here and that vesnina's run in istanbul has been a little over-rated!! she still makes too many unforced errors in matches and has concentration lapses...goes for shotys when their not on and for me just doesn't have the tactical nuance to really become a top player! she also has a bad grand slam record and at times can completely fall apart and beat herself!! stosur when on form is one of the best players in the world, she's a good match player, has one of the most explosive forehands in the womens game, a big serve and though her form isn't great at the moment i would gain great confidence from those quotes that i read and i think if she plays in any way up to her potential she should be too good for vesnina and 8-11 seems like a good price for a 2 point win!

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - US Open berankis to beat ryan sweeting at 8-11 paddypowers! 2 points berankis is a really talented young latvian with a bright future ahead of him! at wimbledon he walsed through qualification, beat carsten ball in the first round before finding experienced grass-courter feliciano lopez too tricky!! once again at flushing meadows the youngster has walsed through qualification and will come into the first round with loads of confidence and self-belief that he can beat ryan sweeting! he's an excellent ball striker and shot maker but he still plays an intelliegent brand of tennis and can play patient and consistent from the back of the court! he's also mentally very strong for such a young man! sweeting on the other hand is also very talented! he's a flashy player and a great shot-maker! but alot has been expected from sweeting in the US but he has failed to deliver!! he's never won a grand slam main event match! and has more often than not failed to qualify for whatever grand slams that he has tried!! my gut instinct is that he's not mentally strong enough and can play pretty brainless tennis at times...he doesnt seem to have a plan b! he also lacks consistency from the back of the court and my gut instinct is that berankis will be able to grind him down!!

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - US Open anastasia rodionova to beat bojana jovanoski at 4-7 william hills 3 points for me rodionova has finally found some consistency in her game this season and has proven herself to be a very good match player! in the french open she baet makarova and zvonareva before losing a tough three setter with in form jarmila groth in the 3rd round! then in wimbledon she beat keothavong and kuznetsova before li na sorted her out! so she does seem to enjoy the big stage and perhaps even over-perform! her form since wimbledon wasn't great until she went on a good run in new haven beating morita,king,cibulkova,pironkova before running out of steam against bartoli!! she tends to struggle against consistent players who take the ball on early and boss the rallesy from the start as her movement isn't amazing. however, her opponent in the first round is very beatable...jovanovski, though she has a bright future ahead of her, has struggled against the better players on tour and i don't feel like she has any weapons to hurt rodionova....rodionova has that extra bit of firepower and big match experience and i strongly fancy her!

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis - US Open Sport Tennis Event Korolev v Nishikori Selection Korolev Strength 10/10 Date 30/08/2010 Bookmaker/Price Sportingbet @ 2.50 Reasoning Two really annoying guys to back, but have to take this price. Nishikori has struggled with some tough injuries, and hasn’t fulfilled the potential he showed a couple of years ago. Korolev has a big game too, and these guys place a similar sort of aggressive game, and I’m quite surprised he is the outsider. Both coming into some form, Nishikori winning a challenger and coming through qualifying here, while Korolev reached the semis of Washington. Generally Korolev has been playing better quality players, and it’s tough to make a case for Nishikori to be such a favourite. Sport Tennis Event Mello v Phau Selection Mello Strength 10/10 Date 30/08/2010 Bookmaker/Price Ladbrokes @ 1.66 Reasoning I’ll take Mello in this one. He’s having a resurgence this year and has put in some decent results. He’s been on a role in challengers in South America lately and I think he can transfer that into a round 1 win here. Phau hasn’t done much lately, and he’s really a guy who needs some confidence. South American guys get cracking support in the US Open, especially on the smaller courts, and I think that’ll be a decent edge for Mello. Sport Tennis Event Berankis v Sweeting Selection Berankis Strength 10/10 Date 30/08/2010 Bookmaker/Price William Hill @ 1.72 Reasoning Berankis looks solid here. I’ve been following him ever since he rocked Great Britain in Davis Cup earlier this year. He’s gone from 196 to 124 in the ranking since then and is looking like a top 100 player. He did well on the grass, like quick conditions and this should suit. Sweeting has been around for a while now, and is nothing but average. I like Berankis to take this. Sport Tennis Event Leonardo Mayer v Rufin Selection Rufin Strength 10/10 Date 30/08/2010 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 3.31 Reasoning Just feel this is worth a chance. Mayer is stinking it up recently, 0-7 since the French Open. Not sure what’s up with him, but he’s just not getting any wins and confidence must be low. Rufin is a youngster with a lot of potential. He haven’t done much on the main tour, but given a decent chance think he can put in a strong performance.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - US Open Crappy enough card tomorrow. Roddick vs Robert UNDER 30.5 games @ 4/5 (Boyles:4/10) Can't see Robert doing much here, Roddick should be pretty comfortable on serve and I expect him to get some chances on Roberts which isnt very strong. Surely a straight sets win, can see Roddick winning one or two sets pretty well so hopefully covers this line here. Think this is Tuesday. Radwanska vs Parra Santonja UNDER 18.5 games @ 8/11(Paddy Power:3/10) Type of match Radwanska should cruise, Santonja plays more on clay and no real results on hard at all....hasn't won a match in a main draw this year(couple of qualie wins earlier in the year though) and tends to lose pretty comfortably aswell.Not a big fan of Radwanska but she gets the results against lower players, only really struggling against the top guys with power. Should be a good win for her here. GL!

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - US Open Last grandslam of the season and I will be looking to bet quite a lot here - if time permits, since I do not know if I will be around during the QF-F stages (may have no internet connection). Checking the draws right now and seeing some interesting bets - some have especially strong laying potential IMO. US Open Winner Obviously the market with the biggest laying potential - and I see couple of prices that I like here very much. Mind that you may not want to lay the off at the first opportunity. Soderling to win the US Open (22 at Betfair) 8pts What the? 22 for Soderling to win? Are you serious? Ok - he had a couple of bad results in the last few months - but that happened before the French Open - and he then lost only to Nadal in both the French Open and Wimbledon. QF should be easily reached and Federer can certainly be beaten. Full stake on this one. Berdych to win the US Open (27 at Betfair) 8pts Berdych has a sweet draw here. After Llodra (tricky, but not so in a best-of-five match), he gets rather easy opponents until the QF, where Murray awaits. At that point, it should be able to lay him off - if you want, that is. He has 2-1 record against Murray - last time, 3-0 in the French Open. He definitely is not without a chance in this one anyway. The price is huge - I expect 18 at most. David Nalbandian to win the US Open (34 at Betfair) 6pts Tougher draw, but the only one I would worry about until the QF would be Gulbis really. Then Nadal awaits in the QF, but again, Nadal is not that good on hard these days it seems - and he should be layable at that point anyway. Quarters Winners One bet stands here, since I already have so much on winners. Mardy Fish to win 3rd quarter (8.5 at Pinnacle) 6pts Really - 8.5 on Fish? Ok, this price is basically on Fish beating Djokovic, since then it will be really juicy even to lay off - he certainly won't be over 3 against Roddick/Davydenko. And Djokovic is vulnerable as hell over five sets, especially now. This has so much value that it is unbelievable. Monday Couple here before the handicaps are published. F.Gonzalez to bt I.Dodig (1.7 at Pinnacle) 8pts Gonzalez would be much shorter if he had more match practice. But he was not that bad against Stepanek and Dodig is at least two levels under him quality-wise. And I will take these odds anyday anytime - although the risk is there. A.Falla to bt. T.Dent (1.96 at Pinnacle) 8pts Falla should be the favourite in this one. His serve is at the same level as Dent's and he has much more quality otherwise. Obviously motivated for huge events (Wimbledon etc.) and has the better form at the moment - the fact that Dent won against Lopez and Nieminen has not much to do with him - but with his opponents being out of form. Berrer + Bellucci (EVENS at Paddy Power) 8pts Two solid favourites here, so I will pick them as a double. Bellucci should outclass Smyczek easily (he is at challenger level) and Berrer should beat the very out of form Beck. No additional reasoning required here I think. GL :hope:hope:hope

[slider24]

Re: Tennis - US Open

Crappy enough card tomorrow. Roddick vs Robert UNDER 30.5 games @ 4/5 (Boyles:4/10) Can't see Robert doing much here, Roddick should be pretty comfortable on serve and I expect him to get some chances on Roberts which isnt very strong. Surely a straight sets win, can see Roddick winning one or two sets pretty well so hopefully covers this line here. Think this is Tuesday. Radwanska vs Parra Santonja UNDER 18.5 games @ 8/11(Paddy Power:3/10) Type of match Radwanska should cruise, Santonja plays more on clay and no real results on hard at all....hasn't won a match in a main draw this year(couple of qualie wins earlier in the year though) and tends to lose pretty comfortably aswell.Not a big fan of Radwanska but she gets the results against lower players, only really struggling against the top guys with power. Should be a good win for her here. GL!

Yep, I fancy Roddick to deal with him in three comfortable sets as well. Fish should take care of Hajek in similarly straight-forward fashion.

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - US Open Kristof Vliegen to bt. James Blake 3.40 @ Eurobet Vliegen leads h2h 2-0 vs Blake since two meetings 4 years ago when Blake was top 10 and Vliegen was better to but I do think these players are in same form now compared to when they last met. Both had good form then and bad form now and Blake is now one of the worst veterans on tour. Vliegen won first set vs Gasquet some week ago before he retired and that must have given him some confidence. Blake is so low that anyone can beat him now. He's had trouble before vs Vliegen and I rather oppose him then bet on him. Dustin Brown 1.615 Should win his match against Hidalgo but maybe not in 3-0. Kristof Vliegen 3.40 Alejandro Falla 2.00 Ricardo Mello 1.615 Guillaume Rufin 3.00 Ricardas Berankis 1.727 5 fold 91.89 @ Eurobet Stake 5/10

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - US Open Here's my choice for outright winners. Men - Roger Federer. 3.25 @ William Hill. (10/10) Federer is main favorite to win this one. Looking at his possible challengers I can't see anyone having what it takes to prevent Roger from winning his 6th title in New York. Nadal has never been good in US Open and his current form on hard suggests he won't be this year either. Murray probably should be rated as the 2nd favorite. He won Toronto Masters just recently and beat Federer in the final there. That was the first time Murray had beaten Federer in a final. That will give him massive confidence boost. Having seen Andy in couple Grand Slam finals, don't think he can handle the pressure. Federer has get rid of him both times, including here in '08. Djokovic? Has been crap all year long and don't think we'll see him beyond quarterfinals. That's as far as Top 4 is concerned. Then we've got the likes of Soderling and Berdych who have done very well in Slams this year but none of them has had decent record in New York. Soderling's best result is 1/4 final, but Berdych has not got past 4th round. Roddick should be a threat but can't see him beating Federer in a Grand Slam match. All in all Federer for me to win this one. Women - Svetlana Kuznetsova. 19.04 @ Pinnacle (2/10) Kuzentsova has had very average year by her own high standards. However she won San Diego recently and that has turned around her season. Sveta has win US Open 6 years ago and knows how it's done. She has got pretty decent draw in early rounds and that should help her get into the rhythm. Second week will be all about experience and she's got a lot of that. She's a player nobody really enjoys watching because she makes tons of errors but should not be underestimated in this tournament. Surely worth a shot at these odds.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - US Open 1st round picks (Part 1) Alona Bondarenko > Vera Dushevina. 1.85 @ 188bet (6/10) Dushevina can't beat a decent player at the moment and most likely will lose this match. She has got quite good serve and a forehand can be a threat but not having plan B is her biggest problem. Tactically no ideas what to do if things go wrong. Bondarenko for me is much more suited for biggest tournaments and I back her to win here. Won't be pretty but should get to the 2nd round. Kei Nishikori > Evgeny Korolev. 1.67 @ Pinnacle (7/10) Not the best price but must take and can add to something else in order to get better odds. Nishikori comes into this tournament with a 8 match winning streak and that can do no harm to confidence. Remember Kei having cracking US Open couple years ago when he reached 4th round and took out Ferrer of all people in 5-setter in the 3rd round. I think he feels very good in New York and Korolev at the moment has got form issues. He had good tournament in New Haven last week getting 3 wins but none of the players he beat were above average level - Gil, Berrer and Marchenko. No big deal really. Elena Baltacha > Petra Martic. 1.83 @ Eurobet (7/10) Both players out of form. Martic has lost 5 in row whilst Baltacha has slightly better record of losing last 4 matches. Funny enough Martic's last win on tour was against Baltacha in Wimbledon. Baltach should have won that match. She won the first set 6-2 and was serving for the match in the 2nd set and failed after what she collapsed and lost in 3 sets. Barring a repeat of that match Baltacha should be good to get a win here. Martic really has got no real weapons. Her serve is up and down all the time and forehand is very inconsistent. This match is Baltacha's to lose. Dinara Safina > Daniela Hantuchova. 2.00 @ Extrabet (7/10) Despite being in very poor form Safina should be able to get to the 2nd round at least. Hantuchova has not been playing great lately and Safina can take care of here even without playing decent stuff herself. They last met just a week ago in New Haven and Safina won in straight sets winning couple tie-breaks. It could be close again coz it' Safina involved but anyway she should be able to get a win. Hantuchova has lost 4 in a row against Safina and I'm picking this streak to reach 5 matches. Angelique Kerber > Gisela Dulko. 2.00 @ Stan James (6/10) Obvious match-up problems for Dulko in this match. Kerber can over-power Dulko in baseline rallies and this part of game will decide the outcome of this match. Dulko's style of play won't be good enough for her to last this match, especially on faster surface than her preferred clay. Like in lots of womens' matches this one could take some time to complete but Kerber should come out on top.

[goochrules]

Re: Tennis - US Open Andy Murray @ $4.25 to win USOPEN 10/10 Imo this is a no brainer. Bowing out of cinci early will help andy stay fresh unlike last year where he did v. well in both tournaments, in Toronto he obliterated Federer in the final 6-4 7-5 was a shocking resembelance of the actual score, and murray dispatched nadal in semis. His form is terrific, the pressure is mounting in the back of his head but del potro is out and he knows this is his chance, backing federer as favourite would be sheer lunacy as backing players that frame backhands consistently 10metres out of court when it is their strongest weapon is a worry. Berdy Soda both out of form, and nadal knows that this is toughest surface for him and to many guys can break him down. Additonally these 5 setters should be advantageous for andy as him and rafa are easily the 2 fittest men on tour. Get it done 1 time andy

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - US Open

Andy Murray @ $4.25 to win USOPEN 10/10 Imo this is a no brainer. Bowing out of cinci early will help andy stay fresh unlike last year where he did v. well in both tournaments, in Toronto he obliterated Federer in the final 6-4 7-5 was a shocking resembelance of the actual score, and murray dispatched nadal in semis. His form is terrific, the pressure is mounting in the back of his head but del potro is out and he knows this is his chance, backing federer as favourite would be sheer lunacy as backing players that frame backhands consistently 10metres out of court when it is their strongest weapon is a worry. Berdy Soda both out of form, and nadal knows that this is toughest surface for him and to many guys can break him down. Additonally these 5 setters should be advantageous for andy as him and rafa are easily the 2 fittest men on tour. Get it done 1 time andy

I totally agree on this one. Been thinking about Murray since he was in final of Aussie open to take his first grand slam this year.

[goochrules]

Re: Tennis - US Open

I totally agree on this one. Been thinking about Murray since he was in final of Aussie open to take his first grand slam this year.

Yea mate dumping miles mchalagin or whatever his name was the smartest move his made, him and corretja will be able to get things done, from what ive heard his bipartite patella hasnt been causing much trouble of late which would be the only thing stopping him from winning. he should be clear favourite

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - US Open Radek Stepanek to bt. Julien Benneteau 2.37 bet365 I understand how bookies are thinking here but Stepanek is matchfit again and it makes him dangerous to anyone especially someone like Benneteau who is several levels lower then then Stepanek. 2-1 h2h to the czech and he won both meetings on hard in Metz and Miami. Stepanek is clearly better and he had some matchpractice so he's fit again. Stepanek will be dangerous here. He needs some form going into Davis cup after US open to so I think he's fit enough for a win.

[jafra]

Re: Tennis - US Open

Dinara Safina > Daniela Hantuchova. 2.00 @ Extrabet (7/10) Despite being in very poor form Safina should be able to get to the 2nd round at least. Hantuchova has not been playing great lately and Safina can take care of here even without playing decent stuff herself. They last met just a week ago in New Haven and Safina won in straight sets winning couple tie-breaks. It could be close again coz it' Safina involved but anyway she should be able to get a win. Hantuchova has lost 4 in a row against Safina and I'm picking this streak to reach 5 matches.

Sorry, maybe I dont understand this Extrabet bookie, but arent odds for Safina 1,73 for Safina and 2,0 for Hantuchova? See http://www.extrabet.com/dealing/sport/content/sites/xtb/en_GB/100-free-bet-offer.html#navbar=http%3A//www.extrabet.com/dealing/sport/hierarchy/events.htm%3FhierarchyLevelThreeId%3DTNSAAZ5AAT6K%26hierarchyLevelTwoId%3DTNSAAZ5%26hierarchyLevelOneId%3DTNS%26businessArea%3DS%26oddsTypes%3DF%252bB%252bS%26wow%3D1283150471342&tab=http%3A//www.extrabet.com/dealing/sport/hierarchy/markets.htm%3FbusinessArea%3DS%26oddsType%3Dfixed%26hierarchyLevelThreeId%3DTNSAAZ5AAT6K%26hierarchyLevelTwoId%3DTNSAAZ5%26hierarchyLevelOneId%3DTNS Oddsportal.com shows that vice-versa, somekind of mistake...

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - US Open Dudi Sela to bt. Xavier Malisse 2.10 bet365 Malisse had an injury and retired in New Haven but even if he had no retirement I would bet on Sela here. I think Sela is woth taking or Malisse is worth opposing. h2h 1-0 to Sela and that win came in Farmers classic Los Angeles in June this year just before Sela won the Vancouver challenger. Sela + Stepanek 4.98 bet365

[bastia]

Re: Tennis - US Open

Event	Tipsarevic - Rochus
Selection	Rochus (Lay)
Strength	10/10
Date	30/08/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Expekt @ 2.82
Reasoning	Even if Rochus lead 4-2 head to head meeting with Tipsarevic, Us Open hard surface is in Tipsarevic advantage, he serve very good, with full power, is definitely better that Rochus at serves, he like more hard surface having 12/9 win/lose on hard, Rochus just 3/6. My tip: 3-1 Tipsarevic. Good luck!

[bastia]

Re: Tennis - US Open

Event	Hewitt - Mathieu
Selection	Mathieu (Lay)
Strength	10/10
Date	30/08/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Betsafe @ 3.82
Reasoning	Hewitt lead 3-0 head to head meeting, is on a better position in ATP ranking: 34, Mathieu 107, but even if sometimes this difference are no more important in match, here Hewitt have more that this advantage, he lose his service very hard, is in good form and have good results this year, won on Halle in final with Federer. My tip: 3-0 Hewitt. Good luck!

[bastia]

Re: Tennis - US Open

Event	Bartoli - Gallovits
Selection	Gallovits +1,5 stes (Asian-handicap) (Lay)
Strength	10/10
Date	30/08/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Expekt @ 3.68
Reasoning	I see an unbalanced duel here, Bartoli is big favorite and have all the reasons to be, is on 15 WTA ranking, Gallovits is 101, is more constant that Gallovits and is trying to go higher that she can, this players never meet before but Bartoli is better on hard surface and will easy win this one with inconstant Gallovits who almost every time is on panel on a big tournament go home after first match. My tip: 2-0 Bartoli.

[bastia]

Re: Tennis - US Open

Event	Niculescu - Azarenka
Selection	Niculescu +1.5 sets (Asian-handicap) (Lay)
Strength	10/10
Date	30/08/2010
Bookmaker/Price	SBOBet @ 3.82
Reasoning	Maybe because I'm from Romania and I seen this girls playing many times, I know how they play, where can make a surprise but here is no place for any surprise, in two head to head meets Azarenka won both, but one of them was terrible 6-0 6-0, I don't aspect to see Niculescu losing again like this but I don't know how she can resist here. On hard surface Azarenka will not allow any break and she definitely will have a lot of break points. My tip: 2-0 high confidence. Good luck!

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - US Open Here we go then, day one of the US Open. Jurgen Melzer vs Dmitry Tursunov - Jurgen Melzer -6 games AH @ 1.99 with Pinnacle (5/10) I get the impression that Tursunov is turning up for his cheque, which is pretty much what he's done in the Slams this year. Plenty of early exits for the Russian this year, who has really struggled with injury and form. One his day, he's a very competent hard court player, but at this present moment Melzer is head and shoulders above him. The Russian played Washington last month and got to R2, taking Tomas Berdych to three sets, but he's not played since then. Melzer's had a fine season and has is primed to have a good Open. He's hitting the ball well and has enough variation and consistency in his game to take care of the Russian. Tursunov leads the H2H 2-0 but their meetings came back in 2007. I'm not taking too much interest in that - Tursunov is a skeleton of the player he was back then. I feel Melzer can cover this handicap pretty comfortably. Leonardo Mayer vs Guillaume Rufin - Leonardo Mayer -5 games AH @ 2.13 with Pinnacle (4/10) I think this is very generous on Mayer. Yes, the Argentine comes into the Open in woeful form but this is just about as good a draw as he could have got. Rufin is a young French kid who really hasn't achieved much to date. He beat Eduardon Schwank at the French in 2009 but since then, he's barely made an appearance on the main Tour. He's more of a clay courter than a hard court man and I don't see him having the necessary weapons to trouble many top 100 players on this surface. Mayer's had some poor defeats (James Blake, Denis Istomin, Peter Luczak) on the hard court swing in the US but he's been playing on this surface for weeks and will have a feel for it. The same can't be said about Rufin. Mayer's got the serve to get cheap points in this one. I can see his gaining confidence if he gets ahead in this one. Huge gap in quality in here and I'll happily take on the -5 handicap at good odds. Michael Berrer vs Andreas Beck - Andreas Beck +3.5 games AH @ 1.926 with Pinnacle (4/10) This is not the prettiest R1 tie you'll ever see at a Slam but I do think the bookies are being bit generous on Beck here. This will be a tale of two left-handed Germans. Both rely on their serve a great deal but I feel Beck has the longevity to get through this one. He's got more weapons than Berrer with a nice forehand, and he's happy to spar from the back of the court. Berrer's all serve and volley and really does his best work on the indoor circuit. I can't see him being able to keep up his game over a best of five set match. He's not the fittest either, and that might come back to haunt him if this match goes over the distance. Neither man has set the Tour alight recently and this is a good chance for both to get to the second round. This should be a close run thing but I'd expect Beck to have a slight advantage over his compatriot. Handicap looks a good play to me. :hope

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - US Open ...and a few more. Kevin Anderson vs Somdev Devvarman - Kevin Anderson -5 games AH @ 2.00 with Pinnacle (4/10) Anderson's playing the best tennis of his career at the moment. He's always had the giant serve but he's added a lot more to his game, including a lovely forehand and good net skills. He's had a very good run on the American hard courts and will come into this one full of confidence. He's never got past R1 of a Slam and that's been down to fitness, but I feel he worked on that side of his game a lot - he seems able to go deeper in tournaments and his movement has got a bit better. To be honest, he'll never get a better chance than this to progress to the next round of a Slam. Devvarman is a weak, inconsistent player. Pulled up no trees in America this year and doesn't have any particular weapons that will hurt Anderson. I can see him getting frustrated with the South African's huge serve - he won't see many cheap points, while Devvarman does go walkabout on his own serve. Fancy Anderson to break his duck and cover the handicap. Illya Marchenko vs Marin Cilic - Marin Cilic -6.5 games AH @ 1.943 with Pinnacle (4/10) I can see this price getting smashed. Despite Cilic's poor form of late, this is a do-able tie for him against an opponent who hasn't impressed me of late. Marchenko seems to be a decent indoor hard court player but that's about it. He's too inconsistent on serve and off the ground to trouble someone of Cilic's calibre. The Croat has got all the shots in his locker, it's just a question of form for him. I reckon he may well rediscover it here. He's got a helluva lot of ranking points to defend after last year and will have fond memories of what he did last year. He's a more rounded player a year on - his forehand is less scratchy and he's better in defence than before. His American hard court form has been poor - a lot of early round exits - but I expect him to come out all guns blazing in this one. Marchenko's too inconsistent to trouble Cilic and I'll risk that the Croat will come back to the fore. Handicap should be within his grasp. Ricardas Berankis vs Ryan Sweeting - Ryan Sweeting +3 games AH @ 1.901 with Pinnacle (4/10) I'm not sure I agree with the bookies making Berankis such a heavy favourite. The Lithuanian is well-regarded in some quarters but to date, he's achieved very little. He's still not managed to break onto the main Tour and has resorted to playing Challengers. He came through the qualifiers easily enough but Sweeting will not be an easy opponent for him. The American has been playing on the main Tour in the US all summer and has beaten some handy types in Michael Llodra, Kristof Vliegen and James Blake. The guys who have beaten him - Fernando Verdasco, Benjamin Becker, Jarkko Nieminen - are all far superior players to Berankis and that'll stand Sweeting in good stead. This is a step down in quality for him and I reckon the young American can keep this very close, if not win this, in front of a home crowd. Carsten Ball vs Milos Raonic - Carsten Ball @ 1.94 with Canbet (4/10) I can't be having Raonic as favourite here. Ball is no mug - 6ft 6in with a bullet serve. He'll make life very difficult for the Canadian, who is inexperienced at this level and still has a lot to prove. Ball has that horrible lefty serve that many experienced players struggle with, so I'm not sure Raonic is going to enjoy it a great deal. Ball won the Challenger event in Lexington so comes in with a bit of form behind him. He's proven on this surface, making R2 last year and having been to an American hard court final in the last year. He'll come to the net a fair amount too and that won't suit Raonic either. Reckon the Australian is worth a shot. :hope

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - US Open nishikori v korolev over 38.5 games at 5-6 bet365! 2 points this match screams overs to me!! nishikori is on an 8 match winning streak and obviously in good form but he's still a player prone to concentration lapses and his serve isn't big so korolev will always have chances to break! in fact, even though i fancy nishikori to win the match, if anyone is more likely to win in straights, i believe that it's korolev!! both players are fairly streaky, particularly korolev who is coming back into a bit of form right now after some wins over berrer and gil last week. he's capable of playing incredible tennis in streaks and go woefully off the boil in other streaks! i can't see him not win at least a set in this match but ultimately i see nishikori being more solid and fighting his way through in a marathon! almagro, isner and bagdatis treble at 5-6 boylesports 3 points! almagro hasn't been in great form for the last few weeks but i expect him to raise his game for the US open! his game is well suited to hard courts as his run to the australian open quarters last year proves and he should have way too much class for starace who rarely wins on a hard court especially against top players! isner surely can't be beaten by gil who is very average on a hard court and in poor form! isner is mentally strong enough and focused not to slip up here! bagdatis is in excellent form at the mopmenty and it would take a big dip in form for him to lose to the out of form veteran clement who admittedly usually raises his game for slams but ultimately bagdatis does everything better than clement and should have too much class! robby kendrick v gael monfils over 36.5 games at 10-11 bet365 one point! i have also backed kendrick plus 5.5 games! kendrick simply loves the big stage!! he has given the likes of djokovic, tsonga, murray and nadal real scares in the past in grand slams and has often been unlucky in getting tough draws! honestly, he has never failed to cover a handicap in which i've backed him....probably because he has a big serve and is difficult to break and he has a lot of heart and doesn't fall apart on the big stage! he's playing monfils who has recently acknowledged his mental difficulties regarding the game and has even admitted to seeing a psychiatrist!! yet, he says he is fit and determined to do well in the last grand slam!! however, kendrick is not a player he will relish playing...he doesn't like playing against the ultra-aggressive net-rushing types who don't allow him to get into a rhythm so i expect this to be a tough match for him! he will still probably end up having too much consistancy for kendrick though i wouldn't put anyone off backing kendrick! overall, i can't see this being an easy straight sets victory for either player and the overs...or kendrick plus 5.5 with bet365 both look like good bets! tamira paszek to beat lucie safarova at 11-4 bet365 2 points! it's just a very good price really! safarova is very inconsistent if truth be told and has performed very poorly in the grand slams over the last few years!! her agressive style will suit paszek who is very much a counter-puncher who feeds off pace!! paszek,(as i've said before) is a very talented match-player but she has had mental and physical issues which have prevented her from reaching her potential over the years! yet she came through qualifying very impressively here and is quoted as saying 'finally i am back playing my tennis, punchy and aggressive'! it wouldn't shock me at all to see her turn over safarova and 11-4 represents a lot of value! other players i like the look of are ball at evens as atko pointed out, bammer at 8-15 though its short, kvitova at 8-13...i hear she's been hitting the ball very well in training and went on a deep run here last year! also an errani, hercog double looks a good bet at 4-6 with powers! and falconi is a promising youngster who can cover the 7.5 game handicap with bet365 against pennatta who usually does hammer inferior players but might be taken by surprise a little bit by falconi who walsed through qualification and beat some decent opposition!

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - US Open Elena Vesnina > Samantha Stosur. 2.25 @ Ladbrokes (5/10) The odds on Stosur are around 1.7 which tells the story. She's not 100% otherwise she would be a clear favorite in this one. The shoulder injury or whatever she had is still there and it was obvious in her match against Petrova in New Haven. She won just 3 games in that one. Vesnina is playing cracking tennis and with her physical approach to the game I can see Stosur having a nightmare match today. Bare in made Vesnina has beaten Stosur in their only H2H which was last year when Stosur was in better shape. Surely value in backing Vesnina today. Bjorn Phau > Ricardo Mello. 2.65 @ Pinnacle (4/10) Mello is one of those weird players who play only at home in crap Challenger tournaments. Phau is no world beater but should not be underestimated in this type of match-up. Typical 50/50 match in which you should take the underdog. None of these two will get past 2nd round anyway. Robert Kendrick +5.5 AH vs Gael Monfils. 1.80 @ Pinnacle (5/10) It's very tough to predict what sort of Monfils will turn out for this match but one thing is for sure his playing style won't change. Kendrick being solid player on hard and playing at home is well capable of taking an advantage of the situation. I wouldn't be surprised if he take a set or two of the Frenchman. Anyway +5.5 games handicap looks good for me to pass it up. Olivier Rochus > Janko Tipsarevic. 2.63 @ Ladbrokes (6/10) One of the best chances of an upset in today's matches in mens' draw. Tipsarevic has never been consistent enough to consider him good enough player. He is a streak player and it's hard to predict when he'll come good. Rochus is not the best possible match-up for the Serbian player because Rochus despite not being able to serve is very annoying player who makes you run a lot and Tipsarevic hates long rallies. Besides you never know about his fitness and injuries. Worth a shot for sure even more so knowing that Rochus has beaten him 4 out of 6 times. Johanna Larsson +5 AH vs Alisa Kleybanova. 1.83 @ Sportinget (7/10) This is potentially one of the first round upsets. Larsson has made huge strides up the rankings this year and is playing good tennis, especially on hard courts. Kleybanova is exactly the same though the Russian has struggled lately, especially on serve and with Larsson being very impressive on serve I can't see Kleybanova having easy ride. For me the Swede has got quite solid game, with 2nd serve being a weakness. Nevertheless Kleybanova is far from her top form and I wouldn't back her to win this one by 5 games.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - US Open Mardy Fish to win 3rd quarter was cut from 8.50 to 6.00 :eek

[Striker]

Re: Tennis - US Open Good Luck All Decent outsider in the Womens draw today is Christina Mchale to beat King @ 2.39 [bwin] She caught my eye in Cincinnati earlier this month

[LAMPS]

Re: Tennis - US Open

Mardy Fish to win 3rd quarter was cut from 8.50 to 6.00 :eek

I looked at Fish myself but thought his potential tie with Baggy could go either way, but I love the fade of Djokovic. In this heat I think he's there for the taking :hope

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - US Open Kevin Anderson -4 AH vs Somdev Devvarman. 1.80 @ Sportingbet (7/10) I think this is very good offer. Anderson has made huge improvement on his game this year and is not only about serve this days. The guy actually has got some baseline skills as well. He should hold pretty comfortably and get some chances on Devvarman serve as well as the Indian player has got poor serve. -4 games handicap in best of 5 sets match is a gift. Lleyton Hewitt -5.5 AH vs Paul-Henri Mathieu. 1.83 @ Skybet (8/10) One of the best offers of the day without any doubts. Hewitt has beaten Mathieu all 3 times they played. Mathieu has been out of form for a very long time. Although his tennis in long baseline exchanges is quite good he totally lacks serve and that will kill him to day. Player like Hewitt will make the most of his opportunities. Clear win for the Aussie here and -5.5 games is a formality over 3 sets. Timea Bacsinszky > Jie Zheng. 2.25 @ William Hill (5/10) Not sure I can agree with odds here. Zheng is big stage player though her form has dipped quite a lot lately and lack of serve will be huge problem today especially against big hitter like Timea Bacsinszky. The Swiss player came on the big stage for the very first time in US Open 2008 getting to the 3rd round before being beaten by Safina. The key for today's match will be serve. Timea Bacsinszky can serve but Zheng can't and I'm not sure she'll be able to compensate that with return game. I think Bacsinszky will be too strong and too powerful for the Chinese number 2.