Monte's Specialisation - Manity Saintained (+335pts)

[Monterosso]

I thought it'd be time for me to start my own thread here, Been posting my selections for a little while now and I've been doing average enough. I've got threads elsewhere which I started with 100pts and I've doubled the bank in just over 5 months or so. I'll post all my bets here every day, Keep track of the stats and hopefully turn a profit. I work of a 1-5 point scale, 1 obviously being my weakest selection, 5 being a max bet for me. I just take whatever price I get in the morning and I update the prices when I get onto the computer, The horse will be posted the night before as usual. I bet mostly on the Flat Racing, Turf and All Weather. I do particularly well at Wolverhampton and Southwell for some reason. 6 & 7 furlong sprints usually bring the best results for me, I do have the odd bet on the jumps racing but not usually at this time of the year. Sometimes I call things wrong in my reasoning, I tend to call the tactics of a horse wrong or misjudge the draw bias at times but no harm! Anyways here's hoping I can continue turning a profit and get a bit of luck along the way. Thank to anyone who looks or comments, Let's do this thing! :loon Starting Bank - 100pts 3:30 Catterick - The Hermitage - 2pts I really like the look of the Johnston horse here, I think she's about to come back to winning ways now that she's stepped down to 6f again after having her last four starts over 7f and shaped as if that was 1f too far. She hasn't won since her second race when she was a 1/2 shot but has placed 4 times from 9 runs since. She has dropped 6lbs from her original handicap and is definitely in with a shout running off 74 again after an impressive third last time out in this grade but just failed to run on inside the final furlong, Would of won if she wasn't so one paced for the last furlong. Her 7f form reads 2-3-8-3, She hit odds on in running twice, Even money once, And on all occasions she faded in the final furlong. I think the step back in trip is ideal, And Joe Fanning is on board instead of French, Fanning is a far superior jockey IMO, He has a 16% strike rate for Johnston and is very capable at riding a horse who likes to be prominent, He also rode her on her first three starts, Winning once and coming second twice so he knows how to get a good tune out of her. Mark Johnston has a 20% Strike rate at Catterick which is extremely impressive, His horses usually go very well around here and The Hermitage is one of two he's sending here today, It's a pretty quiet day for him as he usually has alot of horses out every day. She was an expensive purchase costing 85,000gns and related to 7 winners, Bred extremely well and has a lot of pace in the locker, Hopefully she'll show it tomorrow and get that elusive handicap win. Still lightly raced, Getting weight and sex allowances here which allow her to run off 9-1 one, Which is 7lbs lower than she should be had. She has plenty of scope for improvement and could prove better than this lot. She'll love this speedy ground and the draw shouldn't cause too much problems I'd say, Although based on stats it's not the best place to be. Although claims can be made for many in the race. Likely to be around 8/1 which would be a lovely price come the morning. She'll be well backed too I'd say. Ruth Carr won this race last year and saddles Orpsie Boy who hasn't won for a long time but is now 20lbs lower than his last mark and I think he could prove to be the one to beat if running to 75% of his best, But he doesn't show that often nowadays so I'll go with the youngest horse with the most potential to beat the former classy animal. I'll take whatever price I get in the local in the morning and post it here when I get on the computer around 12 or 1. I don't bother working from SP for my threads, Mainly as alot of horses I select are very well backed for some reason. Thanks for looking. :cheers

[markmywords]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Mightly impressive write up mate all the best.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Cheers mate, I appreciate it. Hopefully she can do the job now. :hope Haven't been able to find another bet for tomorrow at all, Usually find a couple every day. Only a beginner at this game but thoroughly enjoy it. Here's hoping for a long and successful thread. :cheers Haven't checked the evening racing yet though, Getting onto that now.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Got one at Kempton. 6:20 Kempton - Special Quality - 2pts This one really interests me, Won well in a maiden eased down near the end in a 5f sprint at Southwell back in May, Ran well last time out when having her first run on turf and she hit 1/2 In Running, Tried to make all but ran out of steam inside the final furlong. It was a very creditable effort and she'll come on for that, Lightly raced with only 4 runs to date and plenty of scope for improvement. Back on the All Weather now racing on a polytack surface for the second time, Ran well on it coming third from a poor draw and didn't get the chance to make all but it's very quick ground which should suit her better than the surface she won on at Southwell. Frankie Dettori takes the ride, He was on her last time out and one thing I've noticed is he rarely wins when on board a horse for the first time but usually follows it up with a win if he's on board next time. Hopefully that will happen here today, He rides Kempton very well and has a 25% strike rate here, 3 of his last 4 rides here were winners last week. He doesn't often ride for the trainer, Cowell, But they are 7 from 25 giving them an impressive 28% strike rate and a £1 level stakes profit of £27 which is exceptional. Frankie is exceptional over 5f and an get the best out of a horse, He's also very good at dictating the pace from the front which will be crucial to getting her over the line, Although she does face competition for the lead with there being plenty of prominent runners in the field. She is up 1lb for her 4th place at Sandown but that shouldn't be any bother to her, Back on the AW now, Boogie Waltzer is the model of consistency but looks high enough in the weights considering she's 7lbs higher than last AW win so I think she's well worth opposing, Even with Moore on board. Exceed Power is also of interest, Lots of speed and ability but 6lbs higher than last winning mark and upped in class, Poor claimer on board too so I think she can be opposed, Especially considering she's an awkward ride and not straightforward at all, Although blinkers will be on and could spark a better performance. I've no real interest in the rest of them so I'm opposing them all with Special Quality to step her game up and grab her second win, She's bred with plenty of speed, Dam is a Sister to a Group 2 winner, Lot's of potential improvement, Least exposed and looks to have the best chance. Especially if she can get her own way up front, Although that will be tough. Likely to be around 5/2 or so, Very good price considering her chances.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! About time you set up a thread mate, good luck :hope

[TheRat]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Good luck :ok

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Thanks very much men, Hopefully it's a lucky opening day for me. Judging by the move on the Johnston horse it could well be, Missed the 8's but got on at 13/2. Could be worse but I hate missing the opening price. Most of mine are well backed for some reason. :wall 5/2 for Special Quality, Really feeling that this horse will win. :hope

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Should of went e/w on The Hermitage, Came 3rd. She'll win soon hopefully. Lovely ride by De Sousa on the winner. Here's hoping my only other bet will win. :hope

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Special Quality was very poor. :sad 6:50 Kempton - Paco Belle - 2pts @ 5/1 (Victor Chandler) From the Hannon yard, Owned by the same owners as Paco Boy. She shaped well on debut when 2 3/4 lengths away from the winner coming in 3rd place. Likely to improve from that and the step up to 7f will be a big plus hopefully, Shaped as if it would suit. She's now going to be making her AW debut and this track should suit her, The Hannon stable has won the last two runnings of this race and could well make it three out of three here, She'll come on for that last run no doubt and if taking to the surface here (As I suspect she will) she has to have a serious chance at a nice price. Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes have an 18% strike rate around here and Hannon's horses usually go well here. 4 out of 10 that they've sent here this month have won and two others placed. Hughes has a 15% strike rate at the course, Shows a tiny profit to level stakes and is very good at getting the most out of his rides and he could well play a big part in getting her over the line here. The Godolphin runner Najoum looks the one to beat, Extremely well bred but it's her debut and I don't like backing horses first time out so I feel she's opposable even with Dettori on board. Jetfire looked a bit one paced last time out over C&D and although she has an extra race under her belt and the positive booking of Ryan Moore I can't be having her at 4/1. The rest of them are guess work but I think it'll be between these three, Hopefully Paco Belle can do the job and take me out of this horrible run of form.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Poor, Poor day for me. Getting no luck over the last couple of week at all, Mainly due to bad picking but I've had a couple bounced and barged about that could and should of won. Ah well, Tomorrow's another day. Bank - 94pts Bets - 3 Wins - 0 Placed - 1 SR - 0% Staked - 6pts Returned - 0pts ROI - 0% :unsure Shocking day. Edit : Forgot to say the thread title lived up to its name at least. :lol

[chris34]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Good luck with this Monte you put a lot into your writeups and your passion shines through your a real credit to this forum! I am sure those winners will flow in ;)!! Good luck!!

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys!

Good luck with this Monte you put a lot into your writeups and your passion shines through your a real credit to this forum! I am sure those winners will flow in ;)!! Good luck!!

Thanks a million Chris, Hopefully I don't make a clown out of myself now. :lol Every time I start a new thread I go on a horror run. It must end tomorrow. :clap Thanks for the kind words. :cheers

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! 2:30 Haydock - Madany - 5pts Very well bred Filly with lots of speed and ability, Having her third run now after being second on first two starts, Really should of won last time out but went left when joined in the final 100 yards and threw away the race, Hit 1/50 IR and should of put it to bed easily. She cost 130,000gns and is a Half Sister to 6 winners who were all very good two year olds, Some Group and Listed winners also and her Dam had lots of stamina, Won over 13f. She'll go on to race over further I'd say but should be good enough to win this race. She is trained by the wonderful Barry Hills, This is his only runner out tomorrow and he has a splendid record at the track, Winning with 18% of the horses he has sent here and many others placed. He shows an impressive level stakes profit also. His son, Michael Hills takes the ride, He has a good record on track also with a 17% strike rate. His brother Richard was on board last time out and he's not as good as Michael in my opinion and I think he'll be able to get this horse over the line in first if she runs to the same level as last time out. The Mick Channon runner, Soraaya, Is the only danger in the field in my opinion. She won easily last time out but it was against horses of less calibre than she faces here with Madany in the race. It is between those two in my opinion, I can't see the other progressing enough to beat either of these and Madany will hopefully be the one to become victorious here, She will be carrying 5lbs less weight than Soraaya although Ryan Moore being on board is worth a few lbs but I think the Hills horse is the more likely type, And will improve to be a classy Filly in time. She's hovering at around 6/4 on the fair and that'd be a nice price come tomorrow. She was beaten first time out by Hortensia who already had two races under her belt and with a 5lb swing here and the natural progression of the Hills horse I can't be having her at all. Looks like the second string Channon horse also, If jockey bookings are anything to go by. Max bet for me, Hopefully will break my terrible form here.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! 3:10 Yarmouth - Rough Rock - 1pt 2lbs above last winning mark and has been shaping up well enough of late, Ran well for a long time last time out when beaten by 5l in a higher grade than this. Loves it around here having won here 3 times out of his 4 career victories. Stepped up to 7f now which has proved too far in the past, Probably will be reflected in his price but I think he shaped as if needing a little bit further last time out, Poor jockey would be a slight worry, Always seems to run better when there's less than 10 horses and there's only 8 at the moment and no doubt one more will pull out to make each way betting virtually pointless so I think the small field could also play in his favour. He's bred to stay this far and I think the breeding suggests he could well fair better over 7f even though previous attempts suggest otherwise. I'll take a small chance with minimum stakes. I think Tell Halaf is very opposable, I'd certainly rather Spencer on board than Turner and the horse needs alot of luck in running although getting 8lbs due to age allowance will help but he doesn't float my boat at the quoted prices. Kuanyao looks high enough in the weights and also goes poor fresh, Turf form doesn't justify this mark either, Worth a place lay I'd say. Especially if it drop to 2 places paid. Medici Palace will do better handicapping but has headgear on and that would suggest it's not the most straight forward and she looks short enough in the betting too. I'll go with a speculative bet on Rough Rock at likely prices of around 10/1 or so.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! That's enough for the moment, Will have a couple up for the evening racing at Epsom and Newbury I'd imagine. I hope to hell it's not another disaster day. :gimme

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Madany @ 13/8 with Bet365. Rough Rock @ 12/1 with Stan James. Happy with those prices, Paid off staying up all night. Assuming one wins of course. :hope

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Madany is a winner. Soraaya had pulled out though, 35p in the pound from that, +5.28pts. Happy enough to get off the mark anyways. :clap

[fintron]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! GL for this, well done getting off the mark early :clap

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Thanks mate, Happy to break my horror run. Could of been 2 for 2 with a bit more luck, Rough Rock came 2nd. :sad

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! 7:25 Epsom - Abraham Lincoln - 1pt @ 11/2 (Bet365) Putting this up a bit close to the time but I think this fellow has a good chance. Repeatably hampered last time out over C&D, Unable to get a clean run through either. Has plenty of speed and ability and should be suited by the pace that will be up front in this one. He has been running well of late but not getting the luck he needs in running and I feel he could have a decent chance here if the gaps open at the right time, Jack Mitchell is on board and he's a jockey I really rate, He's 5 from 18 at the course and show a great level stakes profit at the course, And he's a very capable sprint jockey. He will hopefully be able to get the best out of this well bred horse who has never won a handicap but is 17lbs lower than his highest mark, Should be suited by the course and not without a chance if things fall his way. The trainer doesn't send many here, Only 10 have went here for him and he's yet to find his first winner. This is his only one out tonight and he'll hopefully put up a brave showing. Small bet for me. We Have A Dream looks the big danger, Likely to be up at the head of affairs dictating the pace and could be hard to peg back but I fancy he could end up setting it up for my selection. Edit : Wrong price. I put 11/1 instead of 11/2 for anyone wondering!

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Well backed into favorite, No good. Got the wrong one coming off the pace. Bank - 97.28pts (-2.72pts) Bets - 6 Wins - 1 Placed - 2 SR - 16.66% Staked - 13pts Returned - 5.28pts ROI - -61.5% Useless so far. Must improve my selections.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! 2:20 Sandown - Cheveton - .5pts e/w @ 16/1 (Powers) Very interested in the fact that Philip Robinson is on board this fellow, 2lbs below last winning mark now, Has won from a 7lb higher mark and has won over C&D, Likely rain overnight should help his cause, As long as the ground isn't GF or Firm then he'll prove to be way over priced in my opinion. He's stepping back to 5f after a 5 length defeat over 6f which is a distance too far for him. He's 7 from 22 over 5f and long overdue a win after 3 poor runs this season although before he won his most recent victory his form read 0-5-0 so he does tend to come off a few bad results and gain victory. Philip Robinson is on board today as mentioned earlier, Only ever had 5 rides for this trainer and they read 1-2-2-5-3 which is very good obviously, He's a brilliant jockey in my opinion and can give a wonderful tactical ride and get the most out of a horse which hopefully he does with Cheveton today. He rides the course very well with a 13% strike rate and a good £1 level stakes profit. The trainer doesn't often visit here but is 7 from 50 giving him a 14% SR at the course and a £29 profit to level stakes. His horses usually go well here and Cheveton is the only one he sends tomorrow. I think he's in with a decent chance if the ground isn't too fast, Certainly look overpriced but I'll only have a small e/w bet on him.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! 2:30 Doncaster - Astronomical - 2pts Tough enough little race to call with claims for nearly every horse in the race but the Hollinshead horse caught my eye, Came 4th last time out after having an 8 month break and will come on for having that run. Came second over C&D off a 1lb higher mark last year running very well for a long way and a repeat of that performance could see him in the money today. Tom Queally was on board him the last day and with that experience of getting to know the horse I feel he could well help the horse win today, Was only beaten by 2l last time out behind Magnitude who now has a 6lb penalty which I think will rule out his chances unless he steps his game up big time. Hollinshead has a poor record at the track but over this distance he has an impressive £70 profit to £1 level stakes and a 13% Strike Rate. The yard haven't made a trip here since this month last year and despite having numerous runners out tomorrow this is the only one they send here, Queally only has three rides tomorrow also. Likely to be around 7/2 which is a fair price in my opinion, Has good claims if coming on for that run.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! 3/1 for Astronomical. I don't think the ground as it is will suit Cheveton. Might sneak a place.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! There was a jockey change due to Queally being stuck in fecking traffic FFS which left Winston on board and the retard sat him in behind the leader. What an absolute idiot. :wall Edit : Don't mind me, Talking through my pocket! Balls of a ride though.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Back now after a couple of days off, Hopefully I can break my poor run. Bank 94.28pts (-5.72pts) Bets - 8 Wins - 1 Placed - 3 SR - 12.5% Staked - 16pts Returned - 5.28pts ROI - -69% 3:00 Bath - Ask Jenny - 1pt Hampered at the start last time out and ended up last of five. I've been expecting this on to win for a while now but she hasn't been able to win off anything higher than this mark which is the same as her last winning mark. Ran here before coming second on softish ground last year in a race which she should of won, Hopefully she can go one better here in what looks a fairly weak contest and is very winnable if she runs to ability. Trained by Pat Morris and boarded by Richard Hughes who doesn't often ride for Morris but has a 16% SR for him and won when last booked for him in May of this year. He also has only had one ride at the track for him which was the winners in May, So hopefully he can make it two from two. Ask Jenny is the only horse sent out by Morris here tomorrow so hopefully she's out to do a job, Richard has good form on here also, It reads 1-3-7-4 so she obviously runs decently with him on board, Ran well at the track before, Back to last winning mark, Dropped in class, Will love the conditions & soundly drawn. Lots of positives for her and I think she could go well at a decent price, Likely to be around 8/1 or so which would be nice.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Got 15/2 for Ask Jenny. Forgot to post this one in here yesterday. 3:30 Bath - Sheila's Bond - 1pt e/w @ 6/1 Impressed with her last two runs and the 4 length defeat to Captain John Nixon could prove to be the best form in the race. First time running away from the polytrack and if taking to the turf I feel she has a decent chance. Stepping back to a more suitable distance of 1m2f after running over 2f extra last time out. Decent 7lb claimer on board which will leave her carrying bottom weight and she's sure to have a decent chance running off that. Place claims at a minimum and around 8/1 on the exchanges at the minute, Would be a nice price come morning but anything around 6/1 would be acceptable. One of only two out for the trainer tomorrow, Both boarded by this rider who has an 18% SR for the trainer, Well drawn, Looks a speedy enough sort and the quick conditions may well suit her style. Not without a chance here, Forty Thirty looks the danger, Price is way too short considering the near one year lay off. Recent winner Under Fire would also be of interest but may be hindered with the weight. All the rest look exposed and find it tough to be involved so I'll go with the likely third favorite to beat them all.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Finally, Get in Jenny! :notworthy

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! 8/1 winner and Shelia's Bond got no run at all, Just pipped for a place, Should go close next time out. The Hugh Taylor jinx as usual. +6pts Bank - 100.28pts (+0.28pts) Bets - 10 Wins - 2 Placed - 3 SR - 20% Staked - 19pts Returned - 19.28pts ROI - +1.5% Edited due to wrong calculations! Edit 2 : Got it wrong again. :lol My maths skills are terrible.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Well done on Ask Jenny, i was on Matterofact and thought he was guna win it a furlong out. Quickly dismissed Ask Jenny due to the last 2 runs, although thought the Hughes booking was interesting, shows how much i know. Decent price as well, predicted shorter than that.